Hey quick reminder: today's march 25th, which means a coupon code on building your wealth, does expire today, check it out a link down below for any of the programs. You get lifetime access to them. The price does go up over time. So if you want to lock in that price, live streams with me and lifetime access to that content check it out, link down below you won't regret it hey everyone kevin here, okay, i know feelings might not be great in the market today and there is a Lot of fun, the indices aren't doing too miserably down about half of a percent, but there are a whole heck of a lot of stocks, especially in the consumer, discretionary consumer service space that are getting whacked today, honest company down 21, although that is up from being Down almost 30 earlier, but even others like purple and a firm down 8.3 percent along with uh matterport and etsy down in the six to seven percent range, a lemonade, poshmark, wayfair, zillow sofi, you name it all of these stocks down over four to five: a percent Uh or, of course, more some of them down eight or nine percent.

So what happened? We had good news this morning and it was also some bad news and then there was even more bad news and so let's break down some of these things, i'm going to start with the good news, because, quite frankly, we've had so much fun in this market And it's not that it's! You know fake news, it's true. There is fear, uncertainty and doubt that uh, you know it's time for starting with some good news. So, let's start with the good news this morning i talked about how the consumer sentiment. Survey was going to be coming out and while the media is picking up on the headline number, which is that consumer sentiment fell a little bit more than expected, the expectation was a read of 59.7.

Any number above 50 is optimism. It came in at 59.4, so slight, miss there, but the stock market didn't really move on this, because this wasn't really bad news. What you did have in it, though, was actually something that surprised me: a sign of good news and light, and again this is not what a lot of mainstream media is covering at all. It is consumer inflation expectations one year out and then out into the longer term future.

These two numbers are critical for what the federal reserve looks at for their interest rate, hiking path, they're, looking at market expectations of inflation, and they could do that with the five-year break events. We talk about this almost every day at this point and of course they can look at consumer expectations for inflation. Regarding consumer expectations, we expected that uh inflation expectations would stay at 5.4 percent one year out and three percent for the longer term. Three five ten years out and they state consumer expectations for inflation, despite the war in ukraine, did not actually go up.

If consumer expectations for inflation go up from, say 5.4 and consumers start saying yeah next year, inflation's still going to be six six and a half seven percent, and these expectations get anchored into the economy. That is probably your biggest red flag for the federal reserve. Having to rug, pull us and force a recession to get rid of inflation, but this is exactly what we've been talking about consistently for the last two months, the more the federal reserve says: inflation expectations are anchored. We do not need to rug the pull the more.

We want to be exposed to equities under that 50 range on the indices. I don't want to buy them once they've run above that retracement level. Take a look at what's actually happening with qqq. Here it's only down a third right now, so we've got a little bit of a rally coming towards the end of the day, but i want to show you a specific level here and then we're going to talk about why this is happening.

Look at this 50 level here we got rejected hard here in the pre-market right off of 161 41, which is the 50 retracement on the qqq. What does that mean? It means that, even though the rally has been killing it since about march 14th, the rally has its limits. Now i drew this right here on on my weeble, which these this line here is just to depict a potential path that i would would maybe expect for the indices. I believe that i said a few days ago.

If we get rejected at 50 percent. There is a risk that we drop back down to the 23.6 fibonacci uh, probably break through that 38.2 and then bounce back up to maybe a new high in sort of a relief rally of this pain afterwards. So this, i don't think it's just gon na be like straight up here and we're certainly not gon na get to this level of of all time. New highs again in, in my belief, because this would be the area uh to sell or to to hedge.

Your positions up here, you know generally hedging over here - implies that you really think the market's just going to keep tumbling down. Generally, you want to hedge in this this upper third and we're not there yet so we'll see what happens, but i do think it's going to beget some volatility now we'll see qqq's recovering right now into the end of the day. But why are the indices right, and why are some of these other stocks burning so badly today, if consumer expectations for inflation remained anchored, that's a good thing right and what's happening with uh with with five year break evens. Well, five year break evens for markets, the market's expectation of inflation, those slowly still taking up a little bit just a little bit of a problem.

Okay, we still got that slow little take up, but why is some of this happening? Well, it has to do with that dang 10 year treasury and just the treasury sell-off in general, the more treasuries sell off the more the yields rise and look at what happened today. It's disgusting, it's hap! This is happening way faster than i thought it would remember how i've said consistently on the channel. I think the 10-year treasury is going back to 3. We were 1.7 like 2 and a half weeks ago.

Then we were 2. 2.1. 2.2. 2.3.

Now we're almost at 2.5, this is going to hammer mortgage rates really fast and hard, and it sucks mortgage rates are just they're going up faster than a meme stock right now, and so there is the potential that this is going to depress some consumer spending as Well now, one of the things that i've said in terms of my portfolio is: i want to be more exposed to consumer service style stocks and less to consumer discretionary, especially those with maybe less price power. Now so far, we have not seen evidence that consumers are not willing to go out there and spend on travel restaurants, food airbnbs, cruises, disneyland universal. If anything. If you look at trends for consumers here, you are seeing moves to the upsides you're.

Seeing moves to the downside in searches for things like video games, instagram, tick, tock, facebook, anything that involves staying at home, wayfair appliances, but so far, you're still not seeing the consumer actually change their consuming habits, but that could change as those yields continue to spike. Starting to put some pressure on an individual's ability to borrow from the lifeblood, so to speak, of their home and use equity from their home to start uh spending right we're going to see less of those cash injections, though a lot of folks are still right. Now. Trying to rush to get some refinances in before those rates just ultimately continue, uh to move on up to about three percent for the 10-year treasury, which would push mortgage rates to somewhere around five to five and a quarter percent like we briefly saw in 2018.

So this is why i believe you're seeing some negativity in stocks right now, but we've got a big positive set of good news today. So i'm optimistic.