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Hey this is tom nash? Don't click, nothing, don't smash, nothing don't buy nothing. I want to start with a quick story. I think there's two sorts of people on this world ones that are super prepared well in advance, managed risks kind of. Like my wife, you know when we leave for a vacation and we need our passports.

We need to pack. Everything is ready a week in advance. We leave five hours before the plane, we're always ready for whatever comes, and you got me, you know i packed 10 minutes in advance and i rushed through the airport running sprinting on the jet and basically that's how i live my entire life. Now you can argue a certain thing is better or worse their way of life or your way of life might be better worse.

It doesn't really matter because you are what you are. The problem is that if you live life like i do, which is basically on the edge, you have zero risk tolerance. Now, let's say that you're driving to the airport and you're flooring, it all the way. All of a sudden there's a traffic jam.

You missed a flight, a cat on the tree, you missed a flight, you forgot your passports. Now the federal reserve faces the same problem and i'll explain. So the federal reserve is running a policy. That's based on not traffic jams, not category being able to get just on time and most of the time when things are going well that works.

But whenever you have a problem, that's where the feet hit the shan, and this is exactly what just happened. So the federal reserve have been managing this inflation and they've been pretty much playing it by ear because look, they also have their own issues the secret. Is they can't really raise interest rates because of the us national debt? I mean they're pretty much stuck, but they can a little bit so they're trying to be very gentle with it basically trying to keep it as low as possible for as long as possible until they figure out what to do or maybe some alien invasion will save Them but here's the thing, the one thing they didn't plan for, because how could they is the invasion to ukraine by russia now that invasion in itself creates a huge cluster freak of supply chain issues? Commodity pricing, metals, pricing, energy crisis, you name it the crisis. Is there now what it does to us as consumers is that we obviously have to suffer higher consequences as far as pricing, pricing on gas on food on goods and services and everything across the board now look the cpi just came out.

The consumer price index is 7.9, an increase of 0.9 in a single month. That is the highest. It's been since june 1982. Now it's a 40-year high now, even if you just look at the core, the core is 6.4.

It's really high. It's a 0.4 increase, so we're looking at a major major inflationary spike before the invasion. You have to understand that these numbers that just came out they're attributed before the invasion - that's just february, so even without the invasion. Without this craziness that's going on right now.
The supply chains with commodities with oil, we were already on a really nasty path to double digit inflation and look prices are not just going up on the stuff that are kind of fluctuating. We do have this indicator called the sticky prices. Those are actually going up. Quite higher than people ever imagined, we had 1.7 stick inflation in february last year, rated at 4.5 on february this year.

So it's not just the fluctuating outliers the core and the sticky prices are rising just as bad now. Look. This might lead you to conclusion that hey this means that the fed needs to be much more hawkish. Let's go well, not necessarily and i'll explain.

Well. The first thing is, you can't solve the russia, ukraine supply chain issues by raising interest, raising interest, isn't going to magically make a palladium appear in the united states and create wheat and create oil. I mean it doesn't work this way. So raising interest rates is not a magical solution that just works anytime.

You have supply chain issues. In fact it works when you have an oversupply of money. In that case it actually does work. But when you have supply chain issues, logistical issues - that's not always the best tool for the trade.

Obviously, raising interest rates will reduce consumption and will alleviate the problem, but at what cost, even though we're not directly at war with russia, this is economic warfare right now. That's going on, god knows what's to come. It is definitely not the best time to call off the market and risk a recession. That's the time when you just want to chill and let things play out now.

Look i'm going to be honest with you. Energy is the complete wild card. Nobody knows what's going to happen to the prices, because we're pretty much at the hands of opec right now. If opec decides to help us, then the problem is solved and that's non-issue if opec doesn't decide to help us we're pretty much screwed and price is going to go through the roof.

Nobody really knows, but the one thing that economists are saying right now is like look, because the money supply is not as bad as we had during the pandemic, and it's just strictly a supply chain issue. If we see higher prices, because you know energy prices and commodity prices are going to push food goods and services and gas going to push it up. So if you have higher prices by definition, that increase that spike in pricing is going to push consumption down, because people are less incentivized to buy expensive if they don't have the money printer going bro, we don't know what's going to happen. This is uncharted territory and i'll be honest with you.

Jerome powell, in my opinion, right now has the toughest job in america. This is crazy. The man has a lose-lose-lose situation. It's a gauntlet of crap.

It's about to come down on him, there's literally not good solutions. Now, look if you want to hear me talk more about economics, macroeconomics the stock market, the financial markets, and you lasted this long in the video, which means you might. I have a new daily show that i do with my friend and partner justin. Oh, we don't call the show, oh nash, which we should by the way it's called money talks.
The link is going to be below we do it every day, monday to thursday come check us out, i think you'll enjoy it. Now. Look one more thing: if you want to actually support this community and support this channel, because these are you know not the set of videos that get a lot of monetization macro economics and you can join our patreon it's five dollars per month. The link is going to be below you're, going to participate in zoom calls and be a part of the community, but mainly you'll.

Do this to support the channel and keep this going if you're interested and as always a huge shout out to the existing channel members and the patrons? Thank you so much 4 000 of you are here to support this channel. I love you all see you tomorrow.

By Stock Chat

where the coffee is hot and so is the chat

25 thoughts on “This is bad…”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Oshry Fitosi says:

    I Smesh N click then Buy PLTR

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Seriously You jest? says:

    Energy prices are in everything you touch and has been delivered where youโ€™re buying it. President Biden went to war on USA oil production. Hold on Dorthy youโ€™re no longer in Kansas.

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars De-Centralized says:

    The U.S. talking to Venezuela and Iran is a sign to OPEC to increase production now or we'll help bring these "competitors" online over the coming months and years.

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Johnson Jame says:

    Hate how this guy is always trying to sell me something

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Gรกbor Ivรกn says:

    Great stuff Tom, thank you๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars J J J says:

    About to sell me some wheat bread soaked in premium gas on eBay.

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars ginkins says:

    Every time you say don't click nothing, I click the Like button. Well played sir..

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars nitroguy says:

    Is Meet Kevin a genius after all?!

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars BeachCrow says:

    "Don't click nothing"… do click something๐Ÿ‘

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars K Roberts says:

    New channel name: This is bad! ๐Ÿ˜‚

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars mike d says:

    Oil is gonna go up. No matter what

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Raitis Stalazs says:

    More videos on Ukraine ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ please ๐Ÿ™

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Cya says:

    clicked that like button before he said anything….

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars TechFactsGlobal says:

    Why is NIO, Tesla etc.. dropping with all this push for electric cars etc..?

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Logan & Mason says:

    I clicked so fast ๐Ÿ˜„

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars De-Centralized says:

    Click, Smash, Buy!!!

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Dimples the Bus says:

    I bought nothing!!! I will next time.

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Greg says:

    Why is $OXY below $60 ๐Ÿ˜ก gas isnโ€™t coming down anytime soon.

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars JKimo11 says:

    First ๐Ÿ™‚

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Logan & Mason says:

    Hello

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Daniel Colby says:

    First?

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jesus Gamino says:

    ๐Ÿ’ฅ

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Chuy Rodriguez says:

    I just clicked something

  24. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars valentin c says:

    First

  25. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars michael brown says:

    ๐Ÿฅ‡

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