So i hope everybody is all right coming down from the christmas highs and there's four things i want to talk to about today. First of all, according to numbers coming out from mastercard, this year's holiday spending is up eight and a half percent compared to last year. Now, if you wanted an accurate metric to show you how much inflation is really at right now, just look at these numbers: you don't need the cpi, the ppi, the tti, the qqq, the qei. None of this that manipulates data just look at how much is spending basically eight and a half percent, and that's just without even real estate or the stock market.

So if you want an honest opinion on how much inflation is right now, this is a pretty rough estimate as where we are on the lower end. You know it's pretty much like they say. You know certain things can't be bought with money, but they can definitely be bought with mastercard. Now there are some news coming out from dubai demonstration, essentially they're saying well, the buildback better isn't dead, yet we can still pull through and make it across the finish line.

Now, obviously, you have to understand what it means when kamla harris says it, she means they'll have to make some concessions. They have to give some stuff up. I think if they manage to put it across the finish line, it's going to be a pure pr effort. Just to say that they did it, the actual factuals will be as follows.

It will be an extremely watered down plan with no substance, because the amount of concessions they'll have to make to accommodate everybody to please everybody. Essentially it's going to be like that old joke. You know what's a donkey. A donkey is a horse plant by government.

Essentially, if you let the government plan a horse bottom to top you're going to get a donkey, this is essentially what's happening with the build back better. I think we should rename it to don't build back worse, at least at the very least um some news coming out from china, so china is currently coming out with new regulation about listing of chinese companies on foreign stock exchanges. Finally, some clarity and the problem is these: rules can be summed up in a single sentence. Basically saying well um just ask us every time you want to go and we'll tell you.

Essentially, china just came up with a bunch of convoluted unclear and not so objective rules basically saying well, we have the complete prerogative to you know, decide whatever the we want for every specific company, which is not that different than what they have right now see. What happened with dd is actually very good examples, so i think china is actually you know scoring an own goal here and i'll explain why people seem to think that china is progressing towards better regulating their market because it's kind of a natural progression. Well, if you want to progress towards better regulation, you kind of want to get to a place where, instead of you making a decision for every single company, you had a set of rules instead of and like an authoritarian decision making process. Where you ask a question, you get an answer and then you can move forward, there's a clear set of rules that speed up a process.

It actually makes more efficient, cheaper and faster to get done when you have clear rules, but instead of going towards that, china is moving away from the rules that they got essentially going to a place where there are no rules. And you have to ask a question. Every time you you know it's like shawshank redemption, you have to ask permission to pee at this point. What's next, i think they're they're, making a huge mistake.

The other thing is, they also came out so well. We're not saying that the vies, the variable interest entities are illegal. We will, though, say that they will be illegal if we decide so on a case-by-case basis, so essentially more uncertainty from china. Great.

That's all exactly what we needed a huge shout out to the turkish lira a prime example of what happens when you. Let inflation basically go berserk, so inflation in turkey next year is about to be 30 percent really good. Example of what's happening to the economy. When you let that happen, you're looking at about um 25, this year, 30 percent by the q1 of next year, turkey is basically falling apart.

Like a shish kebab in a khabib nurmagomedov's party, i mean he rained two ways about it. The thing is that it actually spiked almost 50 over just the past few a few weeks, because what essentially happened is that the turkish government, instead of basically increasing interest rates to battle inflation, they decided to do nothing and instead of handling the problem, they just said. Well, here's some adrenaline! Basically, they said well we'll cover any forex losses. You guys get as investors in the turkish leader, basically when they said that a there's, a huge cost to that.

Just last week they paid eight billion dollars per week. Just to keep that promise. You just gave an adrenaline shot to the arm and essentially the patient still is bleeding out, so you haven't treated the bleeding you just gave him adrenaline shot. So what ended up happening is now we're back the same place.

We were before this artificial intervention back down. 35 percent from the actual value of the turkish lira before this whole mess started, so it didn't work because artificially maintaining currency is never a viable option. It's a short-term solution. If you want to spike it up a little and they failed again, it just cost them.

Eight billion dollars per week um - and this should be like a stark warning to the to the u.s. What will happen if you let inflation go rampant? You know, i think it's kind of scary to think how fast things can fall apart. I hope you enjoyed this video see you tomorrow.