Hey, this is Tom and since the beginning of 2023, my portfolio did 112% as of the making of this video today. Now, despite this great return I Got to admit I absolutely screwed up. You see in 2023 I've made videos about nine stocks, nine stocks I liked and with the exception of one stock that ever since then went down by 5% The rest of the batch, eight out of nine went absolutely crazy, giving me an average return of8 80% We're talking about Smci who did 200% we're talking about crowd Strike who did 117% and we're talking about Aned who did 74% among others. But how despite all of these great numbers, I absolutely completely screwed up.

Check this out. Five reasons why I Think the US is headed into one of the worst recessions and stock market crashes in history. 2023 is a very funky year the way I see it I see three scenarios for 2023 Scenario number one and I call it the most unlikely scenario like Grandpa stopping drinking alcohol for example. This is the scenario when 2023 explodes and we go to the Moon I would put it there very unlikely.

The other scenario, which is probably a 50/50 The 2023 is a sideways year for the stock market. We go up, we go down, but generally we stay pretty much flat. and I think the most likely scenario more likely than not a little bit over 50% is the 2023 is a horrible year where we see a horrible recession, a horrible market pullback, and probably one of the worst crashes we've seen in history. Now we all have kind of a shortterm memory, but you have to remember that at the end of 2022, the beginning of 2023, the consensus in the market.

the overall sentiment was negative. Everybody were convinced that J Powell and the FED have no idea what they're doing. Inflation is too high, the economy is too weak, and that we're heading to a hard Landing I was no different. In fact, I thought that 2023 is going to end up in a horrible stock market crash, which now turned out to be a horrible prediction because literally the opposite happened.

So how despite being a complete idiot, I've returned 112% on my own portfolio and how eight out of the nine stocks which I said were great stocks in the videos I've made since have done an average of 80% How now in this video, this is exactly what I'm going to share with you. In fact, I'm going to show you how anyone can do it regardless of what happens in the market. So stick around. now.

Look, it's been well documented that human beings have a tendency to overestimate their skills, and I'm probably no different. And when we see something that happens, even though it might be pure luck, we tend to think that we did it. Our skills have caused this to happen and maybe that is exactly what just happened here. But statistically speaking, that is highly unlikely because during 2023 I spoke about eight companies that went up by 80% on average and one company that went down by 5% That would be the equivalent of winning the lottery.

and I don't think I'm that lucky. Besides the point that my own portfolio did 112% So overall, maybe it was luck, but not very likely. So if it wasn't luck, what is it? And how we can replicate it for 2024? Because the purpose why we're all here. The purpose that you're watching this video.

Because we want to figure out how to make money in 2024. So how the hell do we replicate this system to 2024? Great. That's exactly what we're going to do. So the first thing is to realize the limitations of consensus when the market sentiment is completely in one way.

When everybody's convinced that 2023 will be a bad year, myself included what happened, The stock market did the complete opposite: 180 When everybody were telling me that Palente years the horrible stock, at $7 it's finished, what did it do? Complete opposite went to $24 Blew everybody away. It's on the coverent high magazine. So while consensus and Market sentiment sometimes tell you what people think, in general, the market is going to do what the market is going to do and it's not always going to be according to the consensus, even if all the experts agree that something is 100% happening. So how does it have to do with a system of making money 2024? no matter how bad things get, Because this is a nice principle and we all know this whole waren.

Buffett quote of Being Greedy When others are fearful and being fearful when others are greedy, we get that. Tom But how is the System supposed to make me money in 2024? Well, good thing you asked because now I'm going to explain it. So over the past few weeks we've seen AI stocks go through the roof Nvidia Smci AET A lot of the stocks I was talking about went absolutely through the stratosphere and everybody right now is talking about how great of a year 2024 will be because they're looking at the election economy that's coming up. because we have an election year they're looking at inflation is coming down Tom Lee is bullish.

Unemployment numbers are down. so everyone is in the consensus that 2024 is the beginning of a new bull cycle for the stock market, which is quite possible, in fact, quite plausible. The arguments are very compelling, but if you remember my previous Point What happens if it isn't what happens if 2024 is a horrible year for the stock market. despite every single indicator and despite consensus saying that it will be a great year.

But as you remember in my previous point, I Told you about the limitations of consensus. The limitation of all the experts telling you something will 100% happen. What if it won't? What if 2024 ends up being a bad year? How do you prepare for the possibility? Because the one thing you don't want to do as a long-term investor is ignore the possibility of things going south. You can't just sit there and hope for the best.

You have to have a plan. B You have to have a strategy if things don't end up going exactly like all the experts are predicting because you see in 2023 when I thought the market will go south and I thought the market will crash. What did I do? Did I completely sell out of my portfolio and went 100% cash? No. I've made videos throughout the entire year of 2023 to the shagin of many, many subscribers calling me a broken clock telling you I'm still buying paler I'm still buying Tesla I'm still buying the S&P 500 and I'm dollar cost averaging all year long.

Same video with the same strategy and people got annoyed Tom Why are you repeating this point? Because I was hammering in the strategy. dollar cost average more if it dips and dollar cost average less if it goes up simple and I've done it all year long and despite the yearo opposite of what I thought I've got great returns simply because a dollar cost average throughout the entire year regardless of where I thought the market is headed And one of the most critical points I make in every single video is that I don't think that timing the market is possible. You can get it right two three times out of 10, but you can't get it right consistently. That's why I don't think anybody should do it.

That is why in 2023 when I thought it's going to be a bad year I still made videos about nine stocks I thought will do well despite the yearo South because those were great companies because those were great businesses, not because I thought I could time the market if I thought I could time the market I would just go 100% cash and forget about that year. but that's not what I did and now let's go back to present time. 2024 looks great. The setup looks perfect, right? We have an Ction year, which means election economy.

The GDP numbers look great, inflation is dropping like a rock, and obviously Tom Lee is hyper bullish. But what if things flip because even though the numbers are great, does it mean that the stock market cannot correct? Hell do you know, because statistically speaking, the stock market corrects three times a year 5% and that's something that you can't argue about. That's facts. Three times on average per year, the stock market does a 5% correction even when the year is good.

And while it doesn't mean that 2024 will do exactly the same and we have three 5% Corrections You still have to be ready. But what does it mean? How do you get ready? Well, good news. it's only four simple things that you have to do. Four simple things and you'll be all set, nothing more, nothing less.

so. Element number one is psychological preparation. and it's not as complicated as it sounds. All you got to do is block out the noise and dollar cost.

average into good companies. Ignore the media. Ignore YouTube Trust your skills, research for yourself and dollar cost average into companies and businesses you like. As simple as that.

Now you can use tools like Stock MVP a tool that I've built for retail investors like you stock Dmvpn. You can check it out in the link below. It's a tool that's going to help you research stocks, run your DCF your own models, see what insiders are doing, see what institutional are doing a lot of of important tools for long-term investing. Check It Out Below Now the second thing is not to Fomo, not to.

Fomo is just as important as not to panic because people who Panic are the same people who Fomo. Fomo means fear of messing out. And even though that might sound like an easy thing to do, trust me, in the middle of the night when you're laying there on your own, it's not easy. It's against human nature.

We tend to fomo and panic because we're humans. We're emotional creatures that's normal. Everybody like that. You're no different.

So one way I found effective for me is to have a support group of people that are like-minded long-term investor who talk me out of the ledge. Now you can do that for free. Join our Discord Discord.gg Nash It's free to join. Join the community of like-minded long-term investors.

Whenever you have a bad time, you're about to do something foolish, which you know inside it's foolish. It's formal. Join our Discord be in the community and prevent yourself from stupidity. And now let's get to number three, which is strategic buying.

And it's a lot more important than it sounds because I've been saying this all along ever since I started this channel I've been hammering this point: Dollar Cost average buy at all times. Buy when it's good, Buy when it's bad, Buy when there's blood on the street, even if the blood is yours. Dollar cost average is the key to this whole system and that's something we teach on our patreon every single day. Patreon.com Slom Nash Yes, I'm plugging my patreon Sumi That's the way to do it.

Join the community, Learn how to dollar cost average smart by dollar cost averaging more when the price Falls below a threshold dollar cost average less when the price goes above the threshold, Learn the system, Learn how to analyze financials, how to become a long-term investor and not just a gambler. Now number four is: don't time the market, Don't try and catch that pullback which you think is coming. Obviously we've been saying a correction might happen. Penter has gone up 250% Maybe it will sell off.

Maybe it's it's not. What is the reason I'm not selling paler after 250% runup. Obviously, there's a correction coming at some point. No stock has ever gone up to the Moon endlessly, But the thing is, there's no way to time this.

Once you jump off, how do you know when to jump back in? You don't. It's a gamble. You don't want to be a gambler. that's not going to work.

It's simple. Look, if I've done it in 2023, when I thought the market is going to go to the toilet I would have missed out on a huge year I would not have gotten my 112% I would be at zero right now. Kicking myself for being an idiot. Don't do not try to time the market simple as that.

And if you follow these four simple principles which means being mentally and emotionally prepared, buying strategically, not being influenced by Fomo, but fear missing out and not trying to time the market no matter how good or bad this year is going to be. as long as you picked great businesses, you'll be fine. Long term. you may not have a 112% year, but over the Long Haul if you've done this system, you will be fine as a long-term investor, not as a gambler, not as a Trader.

Remember what Warren Buffett said? The stock market is always going to be a mechanism of transferring money from the impatient traders to the patient long-term investors. That's all you got to know. I'll see you in the next one.