Hey guys, it's sasha, there is a fast growing trend right here on youtube of people declaring themselves to be investing prodigies. One finance youtuber after another is telling you that they are the messiah and they know exactly what the stock market is going to do, and this is getting very dangerous, especially in a time of uncertainty, stock market volatility and people being confused. So let me set the record straight in case anyone out. There is confused and apologies, but i am going to be pretty direct today.

Sorry, if anyone is offended by what i say or how i say it, i just really need to get this off my chest. Now most of the big finance youtubers out there are relatively young, certainly younger than i am, and that means that none of them have be ever been through any kind of proper stock market crash. The 2020 flash crash doesn't really count. It was over before you finished, making the video about it.

In fact, most finance youtubers have never even seen a correction during the time they've actually been in the stock market. Pretty much none of them have ever worked in any kind of finance, let alone do any work whatsoever related to company, valuations, financial forecasting or anything else like that and hey i get it. Everyone has to start somewhere and you can earn a whole lot in two years of learning stuff about finance, as you make videos about it after i don't know, switching from being some kind of real estate agent, but experience matters, because here we are the moment we See a market wobble for the first time, the fireworks start. The stock market has had a correction at the beginning of 2022, going down somewhere around 11 percent from peak to bottom during january, and naturally enough, because the driver of market uncertainty around inflation and interest rates, gray stocks with long profitability, runways got hit the hardest most Went down from 50 to 70 from november and gray stocks are what almost everyone on youtube likes talking about and when you have absolutely no idea what the it is that you are doing it can seem scary.

You look at your portfolio that is 50 down from when you made a video about it just a few months ago, and you panic it's natural and panic leads people to make very bad choices. We have this natural tendency to stop making rational long-term decisions when we feel the world around us is burning, it's okay, it's absolutely normal. We switch to making calls that preserve us in the short term, at the expense of things that are optimal in the long term. We want to escape this immediate danger, get out of the trouble that is causing the panic and then then, when the panic is over, then we can start thinking long term again and in the world of investing.

This translates into things like selling, all of your stocks that are already 50 or more down and then telling everyone that you are the god's gift to investing telling everyone that you are this yet unrecognized maverick playing 4d chess. You are smarter and you are better than everybody else. You made a video telling everyone that you they should go and buy the dip and that you are not selling you are not leaving and then immediately after doing that, video immediately after you press, publish you, go and sit there with a white whiteboard and do some In-Depth analysis that immediately completely changes your point of view, 180 degrees. I mean it's either that or you already held that point of view and were just flat out saying a whole load of that.

You didn't believe in your videos. One of those two things has to be true, so then you go and make content that tells people that sending out into cash is the right call now that you've been thinking about it for at least maybe a minute or two now that is definitely the way To go because the stock market is absolutely definitely about to go full hail mary: it is going down 40, maybe 80, whatever make up a number whatever. So it's time to cash in and by the way, to raise even more cash. What you really should do, according to this ridiculous pathetic advice, is to remortgage your property to pull as much money out as possible and to make sure you go and max out your credit lines.

That is the way to go, and you go and draw a bunch of lines on an ipad. You know that clearly prove that this is definitely going to happen. The worse the lines look, the better because it shows how much of a maverick you are by the way for anyone who hasn't figured it out. Yet nobody knows what the stock market is going to do me included.

We can have theories, we can debate macroeconomic cycles, but it is absolutely impossible to predict actual market movements, but some people have built up such a huge off ego and are so deluded by their perception of their self-worth that they naturally think they just they know. They know better, nobody else does, but they do. I was young and impulsive once too, so i know how it goes. The bravado of being young can make you think that you, you are special.

You went and made investments during the biggest bull run in history, where you could literally go and invest in the dog turd, and even that went up in value, and so you go and sell all of your stocks and you make a video two days. After doing it, you mentioned a couple of dozen times in that video that the viewers could have known that he was going to do it on the day. He was doing it if only they bought the 1 000 course because without paying for the course, if you just you know, a loyal fan, that's been watching the channel for many years and someone who places a whole lot of trust in the analysis by watching meet. Kevin's youtube videos: you get to be completely shafted, you can go and just right off, because the latest video tells you to buy the dip at exactly the same time, while kevin is busy selling all of his stocks.

So here's the thing the market might crash. We have lots of upcoming potential triggers, starting with the january inflation numbers that will come out in two weeks. It might look bad. The fed might begin raising interest rates faster than expected.

That might be bad too, but then the market can also shift the exact opposite way. Statistically, the market doesn't crash in the vast majority of cases when it has a correction. It's in something like 85 percent of the times when the correction hits the market doesn't end up, going all the way down to a full 40 or 50 percent drop and in most cases it just goes and recovers. Now sure we have inflation and interest rate concerns.

I get it, but take a step back and you'll realize that these concerns are not quite as major as things like: big wars, actual collapse of entire industry sectors or a sudden global oil shortage. Because of these also caused corrections in the past. And the problem is that a lot of people are going to listen to this incredibly poor analysis and advice and go and sell out of their positions too, because you know they trust the creator, because people trust you if you have a million subscribers people trust if You are out there telling them stuff every day and they begin believing in what you're saying there will be enough people in there who place an incredible amount of trust in what you say, and the problem is that if the market does crash, we're going to have Absolutely no end off. I told you so content confirming the genius move and saying how amazing you are for having had the balls to go and predict it, and that is going to be a whole massive cluster in itself like if you place all your chips on red in the casino And then it comes up red.

Obviously that makes you the gambling messiah and everyone should go and listen to every call you make thereafter, but then the market might not crash on average by the way it won't. We might be looking at this time in a few years and talk about how obvious it was that in the year when the world began coming out of the pandemic, opening back up whole industries like travel, hospitality, etc, getting a massive boost. We saw massive growth. Of course, it was obvious at the time we will say in the future about the time now that this was the best time to invest in stocks that were massively sold off because of a rational, short-term fear.

But now the market decided to go and do a little bounce. The market is up four percent since meet kevin sold his lot and what happens well. The followers got upset, meet kevin, continued, making videos multiple times a day confirming his theory and the market is definitely absolutely 100 for certain going to get completely smashed while the market was busy doing the exact opposite and the comments section naturally got filled with people. Getting quite frustrated and annoyed so today meet kevin, decided to go and turn off the comments on his videos, because that solves the problem and at the same time go and reiterate that he definitely knows the market is still going to crash.

It is pretty sad because kevin looks like a deer staring at the headlights of an approaching car frozen in fear. Not knowing what to do. Does he go and double down on this beating the drama of impending doom and gloom, hoping that it comes through so then he can proudly announce how right he was all along. Does he go by back into the market in case it does go up because if he doesn't buy back in and the market goes in a massive bull run, it isn't going to be a great look for an investing channel.

It does mean that you're going to have to have you know your tail between your legs, but i'm sure there is a way to spin it in some way and pretend that you still made a great call and you make the numbers. Look like you made a short term 10 gain, or something like that. So maybe that's the answer. But here is the point: investing is not about trying to time the market.

Investing is not about predicting the exact bottom, the exact top and selling out and buying back in at the precisely the right moments. In fact, that is the quickest way to lose a huge amount of money. Investing is not predicting that oh well well, now that the market has gone up here is another completely made up theory as to why now, just a few days later, it's definitely going to go up for the next six months, but then, after that, six month period Is definitely going to crash immediately after that? That's just speculating based on absolutely nothing but hot air coming out of your ass, and just so you know speculating a short time. Trading is an incredibly easy way to lose money and the vast vast majority of people who play that game lose.

You won't hear much about those losses, because this is basically just akin to gambling and gamblers, don't like to discuss their problems in public or even acknowledge that they have a problem in the first place. Investing is about making calculated moves based on long-term analysis. It's about identifying companies, you feel, are undervalued based on data and models and statistics, and you know things that are robust and things that are actually some kind of analysis and investing money in companies that your analysis says will earn you a good rate of return based On your expectations on the equity that you hold, so please be careful out there. There is a really pathetic recent trend of charlatans, telling you to time the market and telling you they know exactly what the market is going to do and when is going to do it.

But the simple truth is that they are absolutely full of, and their analysis has more holes than a cheese. Grater. Remember that reacting because of panic in investing is almost always an incredibly bad idea. Don't base your financial decisions on what anyone on youtube, including me says.

I don't know which way the market is going to go. I make sure that i tell you as many times as possible in my videos and neither do the idiots that tell you that they do know. In fact, the moment that you hear a numpty telling you that they definitely do know what the market is going to. Do you can safely go and discard everything else that idiot has got to say because they are waving the flag of incompetence right in your face?.