It started: 69 off a flash sale for any of the programs on building your wealth or the shadowing experience. More on all of these later. But dang, 69 off a flash sale for Valentine's Day Check that out. link down below and it has officially begun.

and remember that's a flash sale that's an investment in yourself for programs on building your wealth. And since these programs are an educational expense and tax season is coming up, remember, these programs could be a perfect tax deduction for you check with your CPA but investing in yourself or your business could be the perfect tax deduction for you. Take advantage of that 69 off flash sale before it's gone. Tesla Wow, Okay, we gotta talk Tesla because Morgan Stanley just came out with a piece on Tesla and it was actually surprisingly bullish.

Dare I say usually? Morgan Stanley seems to be the master of bears, especially if you start listening to that. Mike Wilson Bear Boy, He is a mega mega mega bear. You just can't get through anything, but he's more of a a larger macro bear And this we got to talk about. Tesla.

So before we talk about the Morgan Stanley piece on Tesla, it's just worth noting that Hertz has officially taken delivery of roughly 50 of the 100 000 Teslas that they ordered on hand at the end of the last quarter and their Q4 earnings call. Uh, and Report They reported that they had 48 344 Teslas on hand. Remember that Hertz as a rental car company likes Teslas Not only because people when they go to a destination want the potential of being able to rent a Tesla but also they have a large portion of it uh, or a large portion of their Teslas dedicated to Uber drivers. And so really, what they're trying to do, especially during a period of potentially higher gas prices, is going to Uber drivers and essentially being able to say hey, look, why don't you just rent a Tesla from us who's the supercharger network but rent a Tesla from us and use that to make your Uber drives.

And a lot of people who get into Tesla Ubers are actually so excited about the idea of being in a Tesla Uber that at least anecdotally when I get into a Tesla Uber and I talk to the Uber drivers. they they talk about one of the most beautiful things about having a Tesla is everybody thinks they own the Tesla and then they tip more so people are getting larger tips renting Teslas from Hertz because people like this is so cool. I get to experience a Tesla in an Uber thank you for having bought this this. uh about at least this Uber to provide it for me as as a taxi at meanwall, they're just renting it from Hertz It's honestly kind of brilliant and then they're getting more.

So it's like it's win-win-win right? It's wind from the for the Uber customer, it's win For the Uber driver, it's win for Hertz and it's a win for Tesla. Now what's phenomenal is Hertz ordered a hundred thousand Tesla so you still technically have another 50k to deliver. So TBD what's going on with the other 50k? Whether it's you know, production or what, or deliveries or or maybe there was some kind of price renegotiation? Uh, given some of the recent price drops and maybe Tesla's pissed. hey, you know I'm just making this part up right? In theory, it is like if I were hurts I'd be like yo y'all just lowered your prices.

You know we we want to take advantage of those lower prices. although Hertz did announce their original buys uh before some of the price hikes. but it would be very interesting to compare what hurts agreed to pay for the cars versus what they are now, and who knows, maybe there's some disparity there. There's also some news regarding full Self-driving Beta 11.

essentially just that it's taking a little longer to launch. Uh? in that Elon Musk suggests it's taking it's it's basically harder than expected. uh, and uh, to get it out. And now saying there might be a limited Beta release for full self-driving Uh, 11 next week.

But uh, you know Elon Musk's uh, next week tends to be next month, so buckle up. But what is interesting is the Morgan Stanley piece on Tesla So let's pull up. That is right here. So a Morgan Stanley here has their headline listed as Tesla over 200? Too much too soon.

Five key thoughts. So we'll also look at their price Target and how they arrive at their price Target in just a moment. But they start off by talking about how over the last 27 days Tesla has accumulated, uh, somewhere around a trading volume of 804 billion dollars. By comparison, the 27 days leading up to the end of the calendar of 2022, Tesla had only accumulated around 525 billion dollars on trading volume.

Now what's interesting about that is I I think you had a lot of dumping of Tesla stock at the end for tax loss harvesting purposes at the end of 2022. I'm not exactly sure if Morgan Stanley has made an adjustment uh here for that. So we'll see on uh sentiment. So in other words, they they're basically trying to say look, we think it's relatively overbought at the moment.

That's basically what they're trying to say. which I mean if you just look at some of the simple technicals like the RSI relative strength index, you'll see that as well on sentiment. They suggest that at Morgan Stanley and this is sort of like I feel like Insider information, but it's fascinating. Uh, on the inside.

Morgan Stanley suggests that more of their customers are all of a sudden calling to invest money into Lear which manufactures corporate. Jets I Actually think, uh, the these smaller corporate chat companies have phenomenal pricing power just because of the Aerospace shortages that exist. Embryer being another one. If you want a Brazilian a company that's ERJ I have exposure to that personally and I don't to leer So In Fairness I Just want to be transparent about that.

A hog is the Harley-Davidson motorcycle stock obviously here uh and uh. and Morgan Stanley is suggesting they're receiving more calls to invest in Lear and Harley Davidson than they are over Tesla And they call this highly unusual and so they suggest that. maybe maybe there's some resistance that's sort of lining up with sentiment and the technical saying hey, you know, short-term Tesla maybe less interest although who knows, you know I think if you go back six months ago and and you told somebody hey, you could buy Tesla for uh, you know, 200 bucks a share I think people would have loved that The opportunity yeah at that I think uh well then again, May June we were sitting around 2 15 but we were sitting around 300 for a while there in July and uh and October So I guess it depends on which part of the last six months you're looking at. uh anyway, so then you have a valuation before we look at that, take a look on screen here.

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let's hit competition. First, they say Morgan Stanley here that we continue to believe that Tesla will short-term invest their margin into lowering prices Now I Think that's a really interesting argument. the way they phrase that, investing their margin into lower prices. That's fascinating because we know that Tesla's thinking they're probably going to get down to about 20 margin gross vehicle margin.

They've already warned us about that. and uh, and you know right now they're sitting around like 25.8 percent gross margin. So we're expecting to see a hit there on gross margin as they cut prices and they go through a full quarter of price realization through q1. Q2 Uh, that'd be two full quarters.

But anyway, so uh, we expect those margins to come down at Tesla. but Morgan Stanley is actually suggesting Tesla making or cutting their prices Is them investing their margin into market share? Now this is something that we believe as well. We agree. We think them pushing their prices down makes everyone in the industry lower their prices.

which basically means Ford and likely GM are going to lose more money per vehicle they manufacture in electric vehicles. Rivian and Lucid will go deeper into losses and potentially go bankrupt. And you'll see companies that are barely profitable on electric vehicles like Byd potentially go negative now, who knows, but something to pay attention to. And and I love the framing.

Maybe I just love it because obviously I'm bullish on Tesla but uh, maybe I love that framing because cause I'm biased. But to be clear, but uh, it's a fascinating way to think about a a lowering margin that you're just investing that in the short term, your margin, taking that loss on margin or lower margin, investing it into more market share. Then you get the benefit of network effects of potentially more market share in the future and squeezing out your competition and then longer term. Morgan Stanley says we expect Tesla will invest their their additional margin into innovating to grow their margin even more as first they drive consolidation amongst the EVS in other words, forcing bankruptcies or people getting people out of the industry.

uh and then once they're more dominant, they they profit even more. It's kind of like a 4D chess move and I ship it uh or in an EV video do you say you drive it? That doesn't sound as good Anyway, we'll talk about their evaluation in just a moment. Catalyst they list here: Master Plan Three expected to re be unveiled March 1st we're excited to see project or progress on the manufacturing side, including the Giga press front and rear, the 4680 battery pack, structural pack, and other Innovations including supply chain Upstream material sourcing and Mining notice that they don't mention anything about the next Uh platform uh for or for uh Tesla vehicles which I think is really just going to be an innovation for margin, some people are speculating that oh, there's going to be a new Tesla that it gets announced I I don't think so I think that's highly unlikely and people are setting up to be disappointed which could potentially create this by the rumor sell the news trading opportunity but Morgan Stanley remains overweight on Tesla and the reason they do is they have a price Target here of a 220 a four Tesla Now if you're asking to win, it's today. So their today's price Target is 220.

that's because they're discounting their 20 30 Expectations by nine percent. So basically, if you invest today at exactly 220 dollars, they believe you would see a nine percent return year over year over year over year over year going to 2030.. I'm just sort of re-engineering the math to explain it a little bit more simply than starting to get into whack a weighted average cost of capital. And and, uh, discounted cash flows I I don't I personally do my valuations a little differently.

uh I I come up with a valuation and then I look and say okay, what is that going to return me It compounded annually for the next, you know X years through my valuation and the reason I like to do that is because that's a lot easier to come up with than a discounted cash flow statement. Don't hit me wrong. I Could do discounted cash flow all day long. but the problem with DCF in my opinion is you end up screwing with too many variables and what I found is as soon as you start screwing with too many variables, you get confused and you don't even realize all of the adjustments you're making to those variables.

I Think it's a lot easier to do it in a different way, the way that I like to do it, come up with my sort of evaluation and then I work backwards to see. is that valuation what? I'm willing to invest at. Long story short, I'm oversimplifying here and I know it. But anyway, Morgan Stanley has a price target of 220 today and if you invested at 220 today going forward, they would see that would yield you about a nine percent return which, uh, per year now.

Upside risks they see potentially increasing the full self-driving take rates I I Agree with this, however, something that offsets more people buying: FSD is this potential that you end up getting uh, more people signing up for full self-driving using the monthly software service approach rather than uh, paying fifteen thousand dollars out of the gate. Now when you buy the vehicle, you can Finance the fifteen thousand dollars which is great and still end up getting your energy credits which again, that's fantastic. That would be great, but if you don't Finance it up front because you want that lower monthly payment and then you add it on later. I Think people are going to go for the sign up for the full self-driving at 199 or 299 a month rather than depending on which level you get rather than paying 15 grand.

So I think that's a risk to actually thinking that FSD is going to be very, very profitable in the short term. although Tesla is starting to incorporate some of the profit from FSD now that they've more widely released it uh, into their uh, their earnings models. Uh, when they report earnings. Obviously, some upsides could be really scaling the Cyber truck, uh, semi truck.

And then they mentioned here a multi-van Now I think Multivan is a a market that Elon is absolutely excited about and they're absolutely going to get into I Don't think they are right now because I think the presses that you would need to put together these vehicles would be substantially larger than the presses they're creating. Now, think about pressing like a cyber truck or sorry, a sprinter van versus a model 3, right? The Press you would need would probably have to be two to three times as large for a multi-van like a Mercedes Sprinter van. Now, the reason they called it multivan is because it could be a passenger van or a cargo van, but that is the next. Frontier I Promise you that is going to be one of the the hottest markets.

Uh, for Tesla if they could come out with a passenger slash cargo van after the pickup truck that is going to be such a game changer. Now that's just a rumor right now. nobody actually knows if they ever actually will. We know that Elon Musk himself is a fan of the Mercedes Sprinter van.

Asma but I don't think we're close to that yet. given just the manufacturing engineering, that would be required to do so in a in a margin efficient manner. So I think we've we've got a little bit of a weight for that. Uh, certainly I think this decade.

Uh, and and that could really create an entire entirely new s-curve for Tesla So that's pretty exciting, but that's a that's more of like icing on the cake. You don't want to buy Tesla stock because you think they're going to come out with a you know, like a sprinter van or whatever. uh uh, a core set. Creator here writes a Tesla Mom Van.

Oh yeah, uh. so that actually is something that is missing from Tesla's lineup is Tesla does not actually have a good mommy car now In Fairness Right now their Market is really 25 to 45 year old dudes at like a 70 to 80 market share for for that market so they're not really trying to appeal to women I Think that's a big mistake I Actually think they need to have a more Mommy functional van and they don't have that right now. The model X or model Y are not great for mommy vans in my opinion. unless you have like just one or two children as soon as you get more than two children.

and even if you have two children, the trunk space is a big issue, especially if you got to put a stroller and groceries in there. There's just not enough room in these vehicles. And certainly if you're going to use the seven or six seat configuration, you have basically zero trunk. It's like impossible to get a full family in in the model X or Y.

It's very, very tight, especially with car seats. It's just not functional now. I Personally do think the model Y is the best vehicle that you could buy from. Tesla So if you're going to buy a Tesla I think you, you should absolutely focus on the model Y.

The model Y was just actually increased 500 and the model 3 was reduced 500 right before the Super Bowl uh kickoff I Thought that was really interesting. and it doesn't surprise me though. the margins are better for the model. Why? so that benefits? Tesla But I Actually think that's a win for the consumer as well because the model Y is just you get so much more space for for, uh, not not that much more.

And on a change point of view: I Think you get plenty of opportunities on the model y I Think that's the best all-around vehicle, but again, it's It's not a mommy car that's certainly not a cargo van. Risk's a downside here per Morgan Stanley are a competition I Put an X there I Don't actually think there's too much competition. Maybe though with the Chinese domestics, I'll give them that. you know Byd is probably your biggest one, so we'll see.

Mega Tech I Don't think so Legacy I don't think so. Uh. Execution risk with multi multiple Factory ramps? Yeah, that becomes expensive. Then you've got uh China risks.

Again, like a Byd. Yes. valuation. Okay, yeah, maybe because you know they're they're looking at uh, only giving you a 12 times multiple on Tesla on their ebitda in 2030.

That really assumes that there's not going to be another growth curve that comes out for Tesla by 2030 And that's fine, right? You're assuming no massive take on FSD Robo taxis, robots. Uh, where? you're really not building any of that in. And that's fair. You probably do go down to a 12 times multiple by 2030.

Uh, because because growth would slow down without some of these other uh inputs. So that's Morgan Stanley's model on Tesla I Have to say I think it's a very reasonable model here. and uh, and you know I think they're just a little nervous because Tesla has added 350 billion dollars of market cap just year to date and so you could see some downside here. Uh, in in the near term unless of course we get a really good positive CPI then baby.

Tesla Moon Uh, someone here writes Max actually writes here a Toyota minivan is so good. Uh yeah, the Toyota Sienna is a phenomenal vehicle I will give them that hands down. Uh, we also happen to own a Toyota Sienna Uh, We we compared that to the Odyssey which was a close second. but I I don't know I think once we got in the Sienna we were we were.

We were sold. But it's kind of weird to say we bought the Sienna in 2015 when we had our first child. It's crazy to think it's been eight years since we bought that car weren't starting to go. Oh Kevin my car is eight years old I'm like we're not buying a new car.

Minivans are underrated I couldn't agree with you more. Uh, you know I think they have that bad reputation of like the mommy car but look I you know I mean short of a sprinter van which I would prefer a sprinter van over the mommy van but a sprinter Van's like, you know that's it's not really like a mama median right? You know, like Lauren's like Kevin I'm not taking a sprinter van to Trader Joe's right. like I'm not I'm not going around with a massive cargo van and I'm like, all right, all right. I mean like fine, uh but anyway, uh yeah, I'm like how are we gonna get to Disney faster and she's like Kevin we'll fly there now and I'm like okay, uh but anyway uh so uh that.

which is also very ridiculous because instead of being like a four hour drive, if we fly to Disneyland now it would be 18 minutes. but that's unfair. But anyway. so uh yeah, no minivans are freaking phenomenal I mean really, they don't deserve the bad rap that they get.

They have a lot of room. we have an eight seat Sienna and even with all eight seats filled which you're still climbing over each other to get to the seats right. but once you're in, you could still put a crapload of luggage in the back. so it's like our airport vehicle of choice.

I mean it is freaking awesome. Man it is awesome. Sprinter van to Trader Joe's and you know I'm actually seeing uh more moms start taking Sprinter vans to drop their kids off at school at least uh uh, the school my kids go to and uh and I'm like this is cool. people are starting to catch on in America that Sprinter vans are cool.

high tops are where it's at exactly with the big TV in the back. you know when we went to Victorville shout out to the agents there, you could actually search this on my channel. just type in YouTube meet Kevin Victorville or sunny sunny I know what what's it called I can never remember what the place was called the same area in in Victorville but anyway, the agents rented the Sprinter van that had uh, each row staged up another level and uh and then a giant TV with blackout curtains and I'm like I'm like in a movie theater here. that was so cool Kyler says he's in a sprinter van right now I Love it I'm jealous I My favorite car ever.

Like and people who look at Sprinter vans they bag on them. they're like oh well, that's gonna be hard to drive. Nope wrong, wrong. Those suckers are so easy to drive.

it's freaking phenomenal. They are so easy and they turn on a dime which again sounds ironic. but they ride nice and I like things that ride nice.