Hey, this is Tom and this is important. I Have a critical urgent warning for all investors out there. whether you're an index fund investor, individual stocks. Tech Dow Jones Whatever that may be, you want to hear what? I Got to send this video, Watch it all the way through, and then thank me later because this video might save you a lot of money.

This is serious stuff. This is no life matter. This is not clickbait. This is actual important information you need to have.

Okay, so I've been talking about a recession for a long time. I've said since the beginning of 2021 that a big recession is headed our way. Because the FED is not messing around. they'll raise interest rates.

They'll actually create a recession intentionally when they say they're creating a destruction of demand. That's literally what they're saying. Once the FED starts raising interest rates, this is the point of no return to a recession we haven't seen in more than a decade and now the final pieces are finally starting to fall. I'll show you in this video, trust me.

I'm not click baiting you. Look in the recession, there's kind of a domino effect. A few pieces have to fall before the final one actually hits a recession. The main thing that you would see in the beginning of your session is auto.

The auto market cools off the first because you know people go to cheaper cars before they actually start defaulting on homes. And basically that's the first thing that you always see drop. Now we've seen a major decline in the auto market. The data shows that this year 2022 is going to be the worst year in U.S Auto Sales Since 2012., we have not only underperformed, we have dropped 20 in Auto Sales in the past four years.

and just in the past year, we dropped just by eight percent alone. Basically going from 17 million Vehicles just three years ago to just 14. It's a little bit under 14 13.7 million Vehicles according to all estimates. Now we've seen this actually start to play out in the auto market, right.

The demand is going down, the numbers are just horrendous. We haven't seen this weakness in the auto market in the past decade. That's the first thing that happened. Now the second piece of the Domino is the real estate market.

Once auto sales started declining, we focused on real estate and a few weeks ago I made a video warning you, hey, this is the second piece I told you look at Blackstone look at Starwood These are the two largest Private Reads is a real estate investment trust in the world. a combined value of about 85 87 billion dollars. Just Blackstone alone is a 69 billion dollar fund. So both these funds Flagship Private Reads have limited withdrawals because they hit Redemption caps for the month for the quarter for the year.

They basically told their investors, hey, you cannot withdraw more money. We're stopping this because we hit our cap. That usually doesn't happen And the fact of the matter is when we took a look at the entire industry, Private REITs have not only been in the toilet for the past few months, they've been going hard. Now it's not just a Blackstone and Starwood thing.

Private redemptions Basically investors taking out cash from private reads went from 380 million dollars per quarter in Q3 of last year to 3.8 billion dollars in Q3 of this year 10x and I'm not talking about Grant Cardone Here 10 times more redemptions in the private reads and that's not laughing matter. It's a one thousand percent increase of people taking out cash running away from the real estate market Now I Know the people in Blackstone explained well. You know this came a lot from Asia This was a temporary thing. They got to say this to you, the real estate market is slowing down.

It is not just about Blackstone and Starwood Look at what's going on with home sales. Home sales in the US have dropped 35 year over year and 7.7 percent just in November alone. On top of that, we have a new research showing that 75 of home builders in the US are now offering to their clients mortgage buy Downs essentially offering buyers to subsidize their mortgage just to get them to buy homes. Now, home builders are offering people discounts on their mortgage, essentially for the home builders to pay for the first year, two years, three years just to get people to sign up.

Now we've seen what's going on with the auto market. Obviously the worst year we had since 2012. we are down 35 in home sales volume. We are 10 times more withdrawals as far as the Q3 last year from private REITs and 75 of home builders are subsidiary mortgages just to get people to buy.

So these are old news. We knew these pieces happened. We knew these events happened, But now there's a new event that actually is the third and final piece of the Domino. Because you see.

Over the past few months, we've seen the FED adopt an aggressive approach we haven't seen since the Paul Walker days. This current rate of interest rate hikes is second to none except Volcker. This is faster than 1988, faster than 1994, faster than 1999, faster than 2004, and definitely faster than 2015.. This is the fastest rate the FED has ever increased interest rates except Paul Volcker.

And here's the important part. Here's the critical urgent warning: look: I don't have a crystal ball, but I can differentiate between possible and probable and what I'm about to show right now is not probable. A lot of investors are betting and are gambling away their life savings assuming because the auto market is down, the housing market is down, and because Michael Berry issues a warning that the FED is going to Pivot real soon now. I Don't know if there will or they won't, but what I can do is offer you information the same way I do for myself.

Now, the December minutes just came out from the Fed and the FED literally said in the December minutes. hey, we're not reducing rates for 2023., in fact, we will increase rates for 2023.. our only concern is not to stop too soon because that's the worst thing that can happen. We're more concerned about stopping too soon and inflation coming back than actually not pivoting on time so no pivot in 2023 according to the FED minutes from December.

Now if you add it up to the final piece of the puzzle, you really see where it becomes scary. If The Fed actually communicated to you that they're not going to slow down and this policy will continue. The next piece of the puzzle is going to be the one that starts that recession. that heavy recession you see.

Because the one thing that people always talk about in the recession is that argument that the unemployment Market or rather the employment Market is just too darn strong to point out to recession. currently at 3.7 unemployment. you know, historically low number. everybody has a job.

How can it be a recession? Well, you see, the problem is if this policy continues that pain is going to come because if you actually hear Jerome, Powell and Williams and a lot of his lieutenants, they all talk about five percent unemployment. They want to take it from 3.7 all the way to 5 unemployment. And it's going to happen in 2023 because there's no way to slowly create unemployment. Unemployment happens fast and sharp, like a heart attack.

It just comes at you before you even know it. Why? Well think of yourself self as an employee, Think of yourself as an employer. As an employee. You want to keep spending as much as you can to keep your lifestyle so you're still buying the same stuff you're still trying to get to the same level of Lifestyle you had when money was plentiful and on the other side.

On the flip side of it, the employers. They still want to retain employees as much as possible, even if they're losing money because they understand that the cost of rehiring, retraining, and basically all this mess is not worthwhile If we could just outclass this winter and survive for the next six months, so employers are holding on to employees and employees are basically spending as much as they can because they want to keep their lifestyle. At some point, this Festival has to end and that Festival is about to end because the FED has communicated to you. They told you we're taking this to five percent employment And there's one thing I can tell you.

If we go from 3.7 to 5 employment in a single year, the fit will hit the Shan. It's not going to be pretty when it actually hits 5 percent. it's going to be very, very painful. Employees understand they can't spend as much.

that lifestyle is gone. They accept that they spend much less. Employers are actually saying, well, this is for real. We actually have to fire.

And for that bubble to pop, two things need to happen. Employees need to run out of money so they can't shop anymore and employers need to start laying off people because this actually leads to people's spending lists. Layoffs lead to less spending. It's a vicious cycle.

But for this bubble to pop, two things need to happen. People need to run out of money and employers need to start laying off now. I've already showed you the United States is currently at the lowest personal savings rate as a percentage of DPI of disposable personal income since 2007 November 2007 at almost three percent. So we know that people are still spending just as much, but they're running out of money.

They're literally eating away their savings at three percent right now versus 14 just a couple years ago. On the flip side, the layoffs have started. Look Amazon Just announced 18 000 employees going home. That's a lot of people who would not be spending anymore.

The tech industry in general is going berserk. 150 000 employees went home in 2022. That's a hundred percent increase from 2021. And by the way, in 2020, we just had 15 000 employees.

So that's 10x from just two years ago. Goldman Sachs Reducing by eight percent their Workforce Salesforce by 10 land of seven thousand people Vimeo 11 The list goes on. You see what I'm saying here. The layoffs have started and that unfortunately means that the last piece in the Domino is starting to shake and it's about to fall.

The employment or unemployment Market is about to go berserk from 3.7 to 567. I Don't know if the FED can stop at five. Once you start rolling that ball, you never know where it's going to stop. And I Fear for investors who think that the FED pivot is going to come soon and fix all their problems.

Do Not fight the FED. It's not a good idea. Please listen to what I'm saying here. Do Do Not fight the FED.

Be very careful with your money and don't gamble the way your life savings on the hopium of the pivot if it comes great. But if it doesn't, please be analytical. See you next video.