We got ta talk about this all right, so there was a new housing statistic that just came out. Obviously, if you've been living under a rock, you don't yet realize what my thoughts are on housing and they're. Very simple: there's a coupon link down below expiring in six days, and you should join it for all my opinions, uh and insights on housing, lowe's partnerships, coupons and everything, lifetime access to the content and the new content. We've got some new lectures coming out in the real estate courses as well, but no really we got to talk about the housing market, so you already know you should know by now my housing expectations as rates started going up in january.

We expected we would see excess demand evaporate when excess demand evaporates. The housing market could still be stable as long as supply does not increase. Most real estate agents in january were going on tick, tock, saying the house market can't close, there's no supply and i'm like yeah there's no supply because you have substantial excess demand because 30-year mortgages are 2.8. Freaking percent.

No surprise, all of a sudden when you jack that up three percent to about 5.8. What do you end up with? Well, you end up with 30 percent less buying power, so you absorb the demand. The excess demand that you have, but now beyond absorbing the excess demand that you have new people aren't coming in when new people aren't coming in, because mortgage applications are down 70 week over week. All of a sudden you go uh-oh.

You've got some leftover buyers in the market right now, but you're going to squeeze out the existing buyers and you're going to get a new wave of buyers who are going to be able to pay less because their pricing, their purchasing power, is substantially declined. The concern here is that more houses than sit on the market. If more houses sit on the market longer, then inventory levels begin to build. Now, even as recently as a few days ago, the tick tock real estate experts were still telling us that, don't worry supply is still at all time, lows sure it's up a little bit, but it can't keep going up sure it can, because, when you remove buyers From the market, we're about to take a look at a statistic here from that just came out when you remove buyers from the market, what happens you potentially have houses sit longer as soon as houses start sitting longer? What do sellers potentially or owners, whether they're institutional owners or investors, or potentially, even homeowners? What do they say? Well, i can't refinance because the fees are insane to refinance investment properties, probably going to cost you six and a half percent right now on a 30-year fix.

That's insane and it'll probably cost you two or three points at that, which is even more insane so you're not going to do that. The banks have stopped doing rental property lines of credit. So what are you stuck with holding and not getting cash to go? Buy the dip in stocks or selling and more people decide to sell that's when you actually start getting cracks in the real estate market. Where now inventory can really start building and you actually get price decreases.

So what's the latest statistic that just came out? Well, i don't know because i haven't watched this video, yet i just saw the title: housing supply improves after a drop in sale due to high mortgage rates. Okay, whatever, let's see what the actual numbers are, i think it's too early to actually see major changes, but we can start seeing little indicators. So, let's take a quick little, listen here now to a key pillar of the economy, housing and a new report that points to a major shift, but is more homes for sale, a good sign or a bad sign. Diana oleg joins us from washington with the latest and the decision diana.

I don't know if i have the decision court, but i got the numbers, so the supply of homes for sale could post its first year-over-year increase in three years, and it could happen in just the next few weeks that, according to new data from realtor.com inventory, was 12 lower in april, but that was the smallest year-over-year decline. Actually, since the end of 2019 and another reading, covering just the last week in april, shows inventory down only three percent from a year ago, so realtor.com's chief economist, danielle hale, said april data suggests a positive turn of events is on the horizon for weary buyers. Of course not for sellers, weaker affordability is translating into fewer potential buyers and a slowdown in bidding wars. The shift in supply is due to that drop in sales.

Thanks. Sorry, folks, give me one second. What i'm going to do is i'm going to mute that discord? That's pinging. In the background.

Sorry, i actually hate notifications. You know one of the things i always talk about is turning notifications off, but i just reinstalled discord on this and you get notifications, which is the perfect spot to mention, by the way that, if you're, not part of the at least the free sections of discord Join me in discord, uh go to metkevin.com chat and that's the discord invite anyway. Let's keep going, we got ta, add commentary on this. The recent spike in mortgage rates, which has made already expensive homes even pricier, the average rate on the 30-year fix, has jumped more than two and a half percentage points since the start of this year and home prices are up about 34.

Since the start of the pandemic, now the growth in supply is being led by mid-sized family homes as fewer are going under contract. Despite this being the heart of the spring market, which is when that family demand usually happens, most courtney - i am curious diana. Why is the growthman supply being led by mid-sized family homes? Can you elaborate on that a bit i would say prices it just has to do with affordability. When you see mortgage rates go that much higher and you're already looking at a pricey home like a big one like this one, it's going to knock people out of that market uh.

Perhaps they want the lower priced homes, but there are very few of those available. So you already had more of the higher priced homes there to begin with. Then they become even pricier, they sit longer. They don't go under contract supply, just balloons boom.

That was a really so really.com hold on. Let's go. I want to pull this up. That was very insightful because see here's here's the way that the markets work, and this is sort of uh, an analogy that i really like using some people.

Think it's weird. I know i thought it was weird when i first thought of the analogy or heard of the analogy, but a lot of folks look at the housing market as kind of like a hand. Okay, so each finger is kind of like the very high end. You know the very low end and then you got like the middle end.

The upper middle and the lower middle end right uh, and you generally you don't get a crisscross because like why would a middle and home be selling for more than an upper end home right and so people and the same thing goes for multi-family. You can kind of stick it in in the various different aspects as well, depending on sort of where it is, and so people have this impression that oh well, you know you know uh certain aspects of real estate, whether it's multifamily or condos, or single family, or Whatever that certainly are going to do substantially better or substantially worse than others, that may be true, because you kind of have the finger analogy of that wobble between the different sectors like, for example, condos fell like 55 in some areas where homes and multifamily fell somewhere Around 45 to 48, so you had a little bit of a delta there back in the 08 crash right, but you generally don't get a crossover, and so what we're seeing is more inventory in the high end, now we're starting to see more inventory in that upper Midsize section dude, the entire section is going to move up with more inventory and when the entire hand gets more inventory, you start getting prices coming down at the same time as you get rates going up, that's why you have this chart and that chart is about To balloon mark my words, you want to get ready to shop for real estate. In my opinion, at the end of this year, beginning of next year learn everything you can between now and then check out those programs on building your wealth and real estate link down below.