Hey guys, it's Sasha City Bank is saying we are seeing some of the early indicators of a recession Deutsche Bank Just said a mild Us recession could hit the US in the first half of 2024. Soal says they see a Slowdown in the US economy in 2024 as well. Clowns on youtube are queuing up to tell you that a 50% stock market crash is on its way and this is the final Market Runner before the stock market crash. and if that's not scary enough, you better be prepared for the reverse stock market crash I guess I'd probably get a more views if I Just did the 27th video and the reverse stock market crash repeating exactly the same that every other video repeated, telling you that the worst possible crash is on its way.

Definitely 100% for sure because trust me bro. But unfortunately the data is pointing in the opposite direction. so I'm going to share some of the data with you because I am not an ass clown making up as I Go First, let's look at the basics. but to see the basics, you need to cancel all the noise that you hear every day from the mainstream media from the bankers from YouTubers.

And yeah, I do get the irony and everyone else you need to zoom out. Here are the basics. In 2020, the US government and the Federal Reserve along with most other central banks around the world overreacted. When responding to Covid, you can see this vertical line in the monetary Supply chart.

this is when the world went into lockdown and into meltdown. and the FED printed the most egregious amount of money in history. Everyone was panicking, everyone was overreacting, nobody was being rational, and nobody cared for what this would do to the economy. In 2021, the lockdowns began phasing out, slowly, people went back to work, and things began slowly returning to normal.

And immediately as that happened, the impact of the money printers began hitting and the inflation started climbing as people started spending. Inflation in the US was at 1.4% in January 2021, but was up at 5% by May at the same time, Jerome pow from the Federal Reserve and Janet Yellen from the treasury were busy telling everyone that inflation was transitory. It was going to go away all all by itself for the first time in history, without the Fed or the treasury, or the US government, or anyone needing to do anything about it for some unfathomable reason. Inflation did not, in fact just go away or by itself for the first time in history.

and it just kept going up. On March 16th, 2022, the FED increased rates for the first time by 0.25% so the rate went from 0.25% to 0.5% while inflation in that same month in March 2022 was at 8.5% This, of course, was a complete joke, and the FED showed that they have no idea what it is that they are doing how they're meant to be doing it. They spend the entirety of 2021 pretending that everything is fine, doing absolutely nothing. Then when they did start doing something, they were so incredibly slow that inflation just kept going up and fed was shaving off tiny bits of the inflation problem month by month instead of smacking it with the the sledgehammer and talking of Shaving.

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Grandpa Powell only just woke up from his afternoon nap to do something about inflation and at the same time at the end of February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine which blew up the energy market. Oil price began climbing in the Autumn before The Invasion as Russia was massing troops on the border and the price shot right up to $110 to $120 a barrel the moment the Invasion actually happened and gas prices went absolutely bananas through the roof, increasing by 200% almost overnight. This only added more fuel to the inflation fire and the inflation problem in the summer of 2022 became critical, peaking at 99.1% in the US in May in Europe. This problem was even worse because Russia supplied almost half of the natural gas used in Europe before the war, Inflation in the UK, for example, peaked at 11.1% in August 2022, and as the world saw the biggest inflation spike in 40 odd years, people began struggling to pay for the basics.

food and energy went up insane amounts and those un low wages could not afford to pay those bills. The savings rate went insane in 2020 when the US government was sending everyone checks in the post when nobody could actually go out and spend money. But as inflation hit, the savings rate went to the lowest level since the financial crash in 2007. You can see how in the summer of 2021, credit card debt started going up again and the rate at which credit card debt was going up peaked in the summer of 2022, when inflation was running at its peak.

Now naturally, while this was happening, consumer confidence hid the absolute floor. On top of not having the money to spend, people were also afraid to spend money. This is really important. This combination meant that the US Stock Market fell 25% from the start of 2022 to October a pretty substantial crash, and the market has stayed low ever since then.

Now we have have seen a rebound in the S&P 500 overall, but this is being driven entirely just by eight big tech companies exploding in the AI boom that we witnessing. While the rest of the stock market every other company on average has gone absolutely nowhere, the stock market is still down at the same bottom. And then towards the end of 2022, the energy Crisis began subsiding. Energy prices came back down in the wholesale markets and slowly began propagating into consumer prices.

This brought the overall inflation numbers down and by by this point, the Fed and central banks had enough time to increase interest rates in the US. The rate by that point was at 4.5% in January 2023. By February March 2023, every key indicator for inflation was showing that the inflation spike in the US was over. Unfortunately, the FED is made up of old farts who don't understand data analysis or seemingly anything to do with numbers, so they just kept telling everyone that the Us is going to have a second wave of inflation.

It's going to be the worst inflation Spike ever. We must press PR on with go doing more interest rate hikes and so they kept increasing rates through the rest of 2023 for no reason whatsoever. just like the Fed was a year more than a year, late in 2021, and in 2022, they learned absolutely nothing from up and are now running a year over a year late in 2023 going in 2024 as well. But regardless, inflation was on the way out.

Food inflation came right back down, energy inflation started coming down and is still coming down even shelter. the stickiest part of inflation which is also a lagging indicator, has slowly started falling since March 2023 because rent price inflation has gone from 12% or whatever, it was down to pretty much zero and house prices corrected in 20123. As all of this was happening in 2023, consumer confidence started to slowly come back in 2022 when everything was crashing and burning companies stopped advertising compies. were trying to figure out whether they need to fire people because nobody was buying anything.

in Q4 2022, ad spend on Google Search and on YouTube was down 2.6% year on year. You can see that it was falling throughout 2022 as the economy in the Stock market imploded and it was just getting worse and worse and worse. And then in Q1 2023, ad spend on Google went back positive at 1.2% In Q2 it increased to 4.7% and in Q3 it is up 112% This is not anything to do with something that Google has done. This has everything to do with people starting to spend on ads.

This is one hell of a bounceback. Then look at Facebook in Q3 and Q4 2022, Facebook was making 8% Less on ads than in the same quarter. a year ago. In Q1 2023, there were only 2% down year on year.

In Q2 this year they were up 5% and in Q3 the quarter that just finished, they were 16% up. Here is similar data from Pinterest another example: a smaller and newer Advertiser they're not quite as mature ADR Grve bottomed out in Q2 2023 a little bit later than the mainstream players in the United States at 1.7% and started to bounce back in Q3 up at 5.4% in Europe for Pinterest the bottom was in Q4 2022 and the year-on-year numbers have been bouncing back throughout this year. Here are some completely different data from an entirely different sector: This is my Fiva valuation model. Fiva is an online platform where people and companies go to hire.

Freelancers This line is the year on-year Revenue growth and you can see that it bottomed out in Q1 of this year at 1.5% roughly the same period as all the other examples and then it went up to 5.1% in Q2 and then 12.1% in Q3. So in 2022, small and mediumsized companies cut back on spend because money was tight. everyone was concerned. Freelancers are one of the easiest spend categories to cut.

so when those companies stopped spending as much money, the first thing they stopped spending was Freelancers and Fiverr got hit. But then since the start of this year, we are seeing a huge reversal of this trend. This is a bounceback because those businesses are now actively reinvesting in growth again. they're prepared to spend.

Here is a study of Us consumer confidence by the conference board. You can see how the present Situation Index hasn't moved much in the last two years, but this blue line the Expectations Index hit a low in 20122 and is looking a little bit better in 2023. It's still at the lowest level in the last 10 years, but it's really showing the same story as all the other bits of data that we are seeing from companies reports from other sources. At the same time, interest rates over the last two years increased at the fastest rate in history, and that has meant that money has come out of the markets and flown into money markets when you can go and get pretty hefty returns by just no risk putting your money into the money markets.

getting your fixed percent return. a lot more people are inclined to do it. You can see this red dotted line here is the Prime retail assets. These are the funds that are eligible to receive retail money, and you can see that this has gone up a lot.

as interest rates increased. That line has now overtaken even the prime institutional asset volume in October. The total value of the S&P 500 is around $36 trillion, but this is just the market cap the total theoretical value of all the companies if you add up all of the shares and that probably isn't the most Fair representation of how much money is actually sitting in the market. and the amount of money sitting in Maret Markets has just climbed over the $6 trillion Mark which is becoming a much more noticeable proportion of the total.

So whenever the interest rates start coming down if at the same time as that happens, the market happens to be bouncing hard Next year, which is beginning to look incredibly probable, a load of that money will be flowing right back from the money markets into the stock market. So the question you had to ask yourself is, what do you think the data says because at the end of the day, the Doom and Gloom salesman on YouTube does not give a crap about your investing returns. They are not there to try to help you. They are there to get views on the latest flavor of panic.

Same goes for traditional media that is struggling to compete slowly dying off being murdered by social media. So perhaps it is not all that surprising that the data is showing something very different to the accepted, the commonly agreed narrative. Thank you to Manscaped for sponsoring this video. Remember you can get 20% off plus free international shipping And those true free gifts.

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