What's up everyone? All right? So here we are: the end of: August I Am so happy about that. Finally, the month is over. It's been a choppy month, no doubt about it. So I've already flipped my calendars September said never look at August again but I'll look at it one more time for this video I Had to cover up the first three days of August because they don't want to look at them for the rest of the month I sometimes do that So if I sneak under here I see a $10,000 red day I see a $4,000 green day which is good and then a $5,000 red day.

So I started down $10,000 basically the first three days of August What a horrible start to the month Now as we get ready for September let me remind myself, how did you start August You start it really bad. How do you want to start September Start with confidence with strength. a couple of small winners. Don't get out there ready to swing as hard as you can and then strike out and fall on your face.

take some all base hits, get yourself a little bit of a cushion and then once you have the cushion, you're in the driver's seat. You've got confidence. Then you can increase the risk and the worst is you start. You take a little step back, but you're still green.

So I started down ten thousand Monday and the six I lost another two thousand dollars. So at that point I'm down twelve thousand on the month. That is my low water mark. I Then started to build back up Tuesday I made thirty three hundred Wednesday 2200 Thursday Three thousand Friday Two thousand.

So I ended up making eight thousand that week. So I'm back up, but still down four grand on the month the following week I make four thousand. So at the end of the second full week of trading, I'm breakeven on the month of August. All right, and then we have last week last week I lost $1,000 over the course of five days of trading.

You know, one step forward. One step back. One step forward. One step back down a thousand.

And now here we are this week and I'm going to be finishing up well. Jesus actually didn't even do the math to see what I'm up this week, but I made 2,300 on Monday I'm a I was breakeven on Tuesday I made 3,000 on Wednesday so that's 5,000 and then I lost 1100 yesterday. so that's 3,800 and then I'm six-hundred today. So right around 4,000 on the week and my total profit is gonna be right around.

like $2,000 on the month plus or minus. Maybe you think every 3,000 but I think what all the Commission's are said and done, it's gonna be a little less than that. So this is not a month to write home about, you know? But at the same time, I was never green on the month, I was never green on the month except for for a moment last week. So I'm pretty much closing at the high of the month, which is kind of nice.

My account is at all-time highs, you know? Even though it feels like over the course of the last month, it just was going down and coming back up, it doesn't feel incredibly good. It's actually true. So right now it's been going to September I don't look back in the month of August So I'm gonna do this in the in the recap today and ask myself, what did it do right? What did I do wrong? The biggest challenge in the month of August was that my average winners were really small. Because we didn't see a lot of homerun trades, my average losers were the same as they always are, and that while you could say well, they're the same as usual, it's a problem.

I Didn't adapt quick enough to tighten up my stops to accommodate the fact that we were seeing smaller winners. So coming into September like I said, it's about getting myself in the driver's seat, building confidence, standing tall, and then if I get a nice cushion in the first two weeks, then the second or the third and fourth week of September I'll be able to, really, you know, step up to the plate. So anyways, we're gonna break it all down in the recap and remember, markets are closed on Monday Why Labor Day weekend. So that means we are hosting our annual Labor Day Sales 30% off everything at Warrior Trading use coupon code later day to save 30% All right.

So any questions, any comments, leave them below I'll come back through an answer in this weekend I'll see you guys all on Tuesday morning. All right everyone. So we're gonna go over the trades from today, finishing the morning up 685 dollars and 11 cents. So another you know green day here.

Just great finishing the month in the green. not by a lot, but Green is good, you know and that's kind of where I'm at right now I'm just happy to put August behind me. It's been a very choppy month, but the great news is that things always pick up here in the fourth quarter. so you know September Usually things start to pick up and then October November and December are usually really hot.

so that is what I'm looking forward to. So you know, putting the calendar to a new month starting on Tuesday Remember guys markets closed on Monday for Labor Day Labor Day You know, kind of marks the end of the summer, a lot of kids going back to school, so it's a great time for you guys to get back into the studying routine as well. Take the next couple months to really learn how to trade the market and then when things really are just super hot in the kind of late fall November December January You're able to make some really good money. All right.

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Alright, so today's a day where you know I'm coming out on top. Pulled a little profit out of the market, and that's good. And for any of you that we're also able to do the same, you're doing something nine out of ten traders can't do consistently. You know, the thing with trading is that in a lot of ways, this is an incredibly easy job.

All you do is you come here. You sit in front of your computer, you press some keys for about an hour, and you're either walking away green or red. I Mean physically. it's incredibly easy.

Mentally is where it's a little bit more challenging. but the actual skill of How to trade, How to buy shares, How to sell shares, how to read the level - you know this is a skill that that really all pretty much anyone can learn I Mean it's It's not like you know surgery or anything like that, it's It's pretty straightforward to learn this and this is what we teach in the classes once you get this down. Now it comes to the emotional side which is being able to maintain composure through the ups and the downs. Someone asked me on YouTube or nose on Twitter last night he said and it's a fair question he said Ross how can remember how he worded it but he said is your strategy really a consistent strategy when you have some months like the month of you know August here or the month of February where you really don't make that much money.

Is it not just kind of maybe a luck strategy that it works when the markets hot and it doesn't work when the markets cold and you know I think what? I'm sort of my sort of feeling on that is that there. I Don't know if there's any such thing as a strategy that performs exactly equal through all markets, right? If there was a strategy that performed exactly the same in a hot market and exactly the same in a cold market, yeah, that would be a very consistent strategy. but I Really don't know if that exists I Think that any strategy that you trade and I Know this. just we're talking to other traders who do trade different strategies that they'll say oh, you know, large caps were on fire.

You know, here and here and here. and then they kind of died down. Now some of those cycles are tied to earnings calendars, right? So when we have lots of earnings reports coming out that creates more volatility, that's more opportunity. So then what do you do in the in-between times, right? and I Think for me, my strategy is one that during a market for my strategy, it's not a hot market for the Sp500 or anything like that.

it's not a hot market for the Dow Jones It's just a hot market for my strategy. So during a hot market for my strategy, I can make a lot of money and during a cold market for my strategy where we're not seeing really big breakouts, it does become more of a grind. And so you know, is there something that can be done to supplement that? Is it possible that while my strategy is in a low period, there's another strategy that's experiencing a high period and then by having both of them going simultaneously, you sort of level out the lows, right? You may be during a market where mine is really hot, the other one is experiencing it slow. so I think there's there's something to be said for that if you have the aptitude and the desire to try to build out additional strategies.

So today, for instance, this trade on Lula that I took Lululemon this is a three hundred and sixty seven dollar winner. This is a hundred and fifty eight dollar stock. Alright, this is not a cheap stock by any means. What I did on this is I saw it squeezing up here and I decided okay, this looks like it's gonna be a short right around this level.

Alright, so for those of you guys that are in class, you know exactly what I saw That made me think this is a good potential short. So let me pull up the video and just replay this for you. All right so let's um, did you do? doesn't go I just I record these videos and then I add them to the classes so students can rewatch them later on. Alright, so Lulu Lemon Alright, so this is gonna go into here.

Alright, so on this one this is this is the live recording of me trading Lululemon Alright, so Lulu has a high right now. It's basically squeezed up here. It's at the high of a hundred and fifty eight dollars. And what do I see on the level - I see a 600 as sorry as a 65,000 share seller right there at 70.

And so as I looked at that I thought okay if this is a big seller, that's a really big seller I mean you know huge So a huge seller right there you know multi-million dollar type of seller that's huge So I'm thinking okay if that seller does not break, that's gonna be high a day and the stock is gonna come down off that level. So what can I do I can take a short right here 158 60 with a stop if this level breaks. So if all of a sudden I see buyers come in and it goes 65, 64, 63, 6 to 261. you know 55 50, 45, 30, 28, 27, 26, 25, 24 exec, etc then I'm gonna press the Buy button and I'm gonna cover and so what I did was I risked $100 I took a short position at 60 now I got into this short position right here I pressed the short I press the button to short at 1:58 60 as I started to see some sellers go through and my stop is is at 70 so I'm risking a hundred bucks.

All right and what do I do I enter the order right now at 150 875 all I've got to do is press the Buy button to cover the short position. So this is not my typical momentum strategy. This is a reversal strategy. Do I trade it a lot.

No I don't because I don't make tens of thousands of dollars on this strategy and so I don't really feel a strong desire to be aggressively looking for these types of setups. However, this one was particularly good. Very low risk and I made with $100 of risk, $370 or $350 of profit. So a three-to-one profit loss ratio which is fantastic.

So all right. So let's play this. so I see Okay, I'm here I'm like okay, you know what? I might have been wrong. it's back at 70.

so I've got my hand over the Buy button ready to cover, watching watching the level 2, watching the time in sales. Okay, there we get a flush that's good. So now what I decide to do on this one is I'm still just kind of watching it for a second. I'm only up like a teeny bit right? So then what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna open Lulu in the second window right here.

and on this second window I'm gonna start preparing my order to cover the position for profit. so this is going to be still with the order ready to cover at a loss and this one here is going to be ready to cover for profit. So here I'm going to type it in Lulu I do have hotkeys that I've created for covering shorts but they cover it the bid so right there I covered it 126 which was actually between the spread. So where I press that button to cover it was between the spread.

and I got filled right away. So now I'm going to put an order for 250 shares to cover more and on this one I'm going to set it as a profit target. So what I'm going to do is I'm gonna actually move the order just down 100 and below 150 Eight dollars. So as watch here I put it down at 157 96 right there and I put out the order because I'm thinking if it flushes below 58, it'll pick up my order.

So I put it there just below that level and what happens. it flushes below and my order gets filled fills at 96. All right. So now I've got three hundred thirty dollars a profit.

I'm still holding 250 shares so I could have covered the rest of it here and I would have made 400 bucks but I wanted to hold thinking we had more potential to the downside and it ends up, you know, kind of going sideways here for a second and then popping back up and so I ended up covering it as it pops back up. Now it ends up coming down. What is it at right now? It's it. Well it's a 150 722 so it's down like a dollar from where it is now, but you know, whatever.

So I so I cover it up, cover up the rest of us. It pops up here to 60 cuz I'm thinking you know this thing might be going right back to high a day, pulled back to the nine, squeezing back up so you know. In any case, this is a strategy that don't trade a lot, but it can help add kind of some supplemental income during months where the momentum strategy is a little bit slower and so for that you know it is kind of nice to have that in my back pocket. I Think that that's sort of the the best.

The best thing that I could do during what is a slow market for for my small cap strategy. Now some people will say well wraps, why don't you just short small caps and again you know the problem here is that number one the biggest problem is availability of shares. We if we look at Yvr you can see this one. This one ended up being really kind of choppy and I'm not sure where you know I would some people have shortened it on this first red candle and then maybe and then covered it as it went higher? What? Some people have shorted this false breakout here maybe and then it went higher and then it dropped down and then with some people showed right here.

maybe and this was the only one that would have been kind of clear. It was very choppy, both long and sure it's not like oh I lost money on the long side. This would have been an easy short That wasn't the case with this stock. it was not in in my opinion an easy short I mean yeah, it finally failed here.

but it you know it could have just as easily kept going higher. It was just very difficult to time. That's the same with Bli and yesterday yesterday Bli n consolidating and kind of in this in this range you know does a false breakout to the upside and we've seen so many times where stocks you know do these kind of false breakouts and they pop up. So here it traps early buyers.

you know, going for the breakout and then it drops down and now people are short and now they're holding kind of flat. Or what about here? It kind of trapped short sellers in some of these early drops. So you know if I think if you say well, I'm just gonna the lungs or choppy I'm just gonna trade short. That's not necessarily true I Think there are some stocks that are simply choppy both ways.

whichever way you try to trade them and they're difficult and they're frustrating. You know? Does it make a big move? here? it does, but it was sort of not predictable. Does it start to fade here? Yes, but you know, was it a predictable fade? I'm not really sure. You know.

So that's kind of the challenge finding shares available to borrow and then the fact that when these stocks are choppy, they're choppy both ways, both long and short. Certainly, there are times where you know it may be easier to be a short seller of small caps and maybe that's the month of August Um, I'm not really sure. You know some some of you who do actively short them you know might be able to to to say, but I think that for me, what makes more sense is to have a supplemental strategy that's not dependent on finding shares available to borrow of these small caps, but that is instead based on sort of a completely different strategy like reversals on higher priced stocks this $300 It's not a $3,000 day, but it's a green day so that helps me get a little bit of profit. you know I For me to start shorting these small caps, I'd have to open an account either in the Bahamas or put up a $50,000 minimum with center point which you know I really right now don't want to do so.

you know for right now I'm gonna be okay with the fact that my strategy does have some a band flow and we'll have months that are a little bit slow and then I know I make up for it On the other side. What? I Like to have another strategy that was equally profitable as this one? Sure, I would love to, you know, but but right now I just don't have it so you know even for me I'm at a point where you know if if I can work on developing another strategy it'll It'll just make me a better trader. and you know that's probably the same with many of you, but it's about mastering one first and when you really have that one down too, then at that point you know going on kind of looking at okay, what's the hurdle to start doing this the other direction I think my other concern is the risk of flip-flopping where I have a long bias and then I flip short and then I'm short and then I flip back along and I'm concerned that that could kind of get me into like a little bit of a revenge thing. if I lose money short, then I go along really aggressive.

or if I lose money long then I go short really aggressive to try to kind of like revenge, trade it. So I sort of see that as a potential trigger for me only because I know that that did happen to me when I did have my account the Bahamas and I was able to flip both directions I would sometimes do that maybe now I'm a little bit more you know composed than I was then and I'd be able to manage it better. but that's something that I'm just a little bit mindful of the potential risk there. and I think the reality is I could say I'm not gonna flip short after a loss, but that might mean sometimes did I miss really great opportunities because sometimes that that is the right decision.

You know, So it's It's like how do you gauge when it's the right decision versus when you're doing it through FOMO or through a motion or something like that. But again, right now my focus is to try to finish up this $583 to a million dollar challenge. I don't really want to be live trading and untested strategy so I'm gonna focus on what works for me knowing that some months will be slow and then other months will be incredibly hot and I really at this point need like three hot months to finish up this challenge. and then yeah, maybe at that point I'll I don't know.

maybe I will open an account with Centrepointe or set up one of the accounts in the Bahamas Let's start taking some more shorts, but I'm not sure I'm really I'm not sure if that's the way that's the way to go and I think for me, the biggest short setup probably my favorite one would be shorting in to a halt going down because they almost always open lower just the way I Like buying in to a halt going up. Doubt that would is kind of like the no-brainer short, but in terms of shorting false breakouts on one minute micro pull backs and stuff like that, these are scalp shorts. You know, shorting a scalp of a false breakout, Stuff like that, it would add some some additional profit, but it would create that issue of very quickly trying to be long in one account, shorten another, or flipping directions and I don't know something to think about, but you know, for me, sitting right now, up about three hundred, sixty-five thousand on the year or whatever the case is, it's been a great year and we've still got four months left. so I still have a great chance of hitting my $600,000 goal.

You know, five hundred thousand. We sort of minimum target fifty thousand a month shouldn't have a problem getting there, so we'll see if I can get to six hundred. That's that's still the goal and it's still within reach so that you know starting in September it's just really back at it. Nothing is gonna be that much different.

I'll keep my share size relatively small until we do start seeing some some really good opportunities and stocks really opening up. so for the first you know Tuesday when we get back at it, I'll take it a little easy, but when we see things start to you know, take off, then I'm gonna I'm gonna step up, you know and start to increase my share size for sure. So I started this year with I don't remember how much was in my account I think I was still holding like seventy thousand or maybe a hundred thousand I'm not I'm not a hundred percent sure where where I where I was started in the year wasn't any particular amount. I started January 2017 with the $583 and as of right now I'm at about seven hundred thousand in profit.

So I've got three hundred thousand to go to hit the million dollar mark, so that's why I'm you know, kind of got my sights set on crossing six hundred K this year, but I do need some strong strong momentum in the fourth quarter. I I Hope that we get it I Think we will and as soon as we start to see those stocks taking off, I'm gonna step up to the plate. You know, ten Fifteen twenty thousand shares, stock squeeze up, get halted, open higher and those are going to be quick. You know, five, ten, fifteen, twenty twenty-five thousand dollar winners.

So you know a few weeks like that will go a long ways and help me get to the other side of this challenge. Alright, so that's about it for me today. No class for students. We finished last class yesterday, but next week we'll be back at the regular mentor schedule.

Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Mentor sessions so we'll see you guys then and I hope you all have an awesome weekend. Enjoy the long weekend. We don't get a lot of them so enjoy it. relax.

You know if you finish today in the red, you finish August in the red. Take a breath and put it behind you. You know what I would do is take a few minutes just to take a breath, relax, and then come back, look at your, look at your your metrics. I'm gonna do this for all of you guys on Monday Once I'm able to import all of my metrics I can import my metrics as of let's see as of yesterday.

So maybe I'll do that right now and we'll just take a quick look at them. But basically my process anytime I have a really bad red day or I have a red month is to go back and look at my metrics and ask myself, you know? Okay I've got a red month here. What did I do right? What did I do wrong? What are my metrics? You know, high-level what's my accuracy and and what I'm doing is I'm trying to figure out. Is there something that I did wrong? Is there something I can pinpoint a clue at what I was doing wrong and can I can I correct that and if I can then that's that's awesome I mean that's the goal and if I can't then it's like okay, well you know maybe the market was just choppy.

Maybe there wasn't anything that I did wrong. it was just difficult market and you know we'll get to the other side of the you know soon enough. But 9 out of 10 times when I'm looking back at those metrics I'm able to say you know what? There was something that you know. Here's a clue of what wasn't working.

So what I'll do here? Let me just import these real quick into Trader View. All right. So I'm gonna import my Lightspeed executions There we go. refresh.

So these are going to be as of as of what is it yesterday. Alright, so I'm just gonna look at the month of. well, we can look at year today as of yesterday. So year-to-date net: $363,000 So if you feel good about that accuracy, year-to-date 65 percent profit loss ratio is 1 to 1.

My average winners and average losers are about the same. So if I take 100 trades, I'm gonna have 65 winners at $1,000 that's $65,000 in profit. and I'm gonna have 35 losers at $1,000 That's thirty-five thousand dollars in losses. So you know my net is whatever it is there.

All right. So let's look now just at the month of August and see why August has been so difficult. Accuracy Not bad. I mean a little below average, but not horrible.

This is where there's a problem. So the problem here is that my average winners and my average losers are not balanced. I have a negative profit loss ratio. So why does that happen? Well, in fact, my average losers are about the same as average, right? So knowing my average losers are a thousand dollars, the average loser of nine hundred? That's actually not significantly higher than average.

Here's the problem. The one thing that stands out in all these metrics is that my average winner is half the size of typical. Okay, so why would my average winner be half of half the size of normal? And you know, really, that's what is out of my control I Can't control how big my winners will be, right? I can't control that? If we're in a market where we're not seeing good follow-through we're not seeing stocks really open up, then you know I'm gonna have a month where the average winners are smaller and that's just the way it is. So this is a month where we didn't see big breakouts.

You know, we saw stocks open up, pop up, you know, and then fade and and just go down. So it was like these short little windows of opportunity. and if you got in a little too high, you didn't capture a lot of profit. If you got in way too high, then you end up having a loss.

So my accuracy, you know, not bad, whatever. A little below average, but this is really the area that was the problem. So this is what I would call us a poor month. 124 total trades.

So let's look at the month of January to contrast a bad month and a good month. All right, so go to 31st. Ok, so for the month of January my average winners were three times higher 300% more. My average winner was 300% more than it was this last month.

That is massive. My accuracy was also better. I mean my accuracy was 76% so accuracy was better. Number of trades only five more trades, but look at how that materializes right to 117 thousand dollars.

So my accuracy was like 20% better which is huge and my average winners were three hundred percent more. So really, the big difference was the average winners, right? If I had an average of $1,500 winners this month was sixty two percent accuracy I would have made a lot more. I mean you know just you do the math just based on the numbers. So average winners of 1500 I have 124 trades times sixty two percent.

So times 0.62 because are 124 divided by I'm doing this wrong. So in six - okay, so times 1,500 I would have had $115,000 in losers and then 124 times point 37 per time. Yeah one. So this would have been a hundred fifteen thousand dollars in winners and then times a thousand minus forty five.

So 115 minus 45 I would have been up 70 thousand dollars with my current accuracy being the same. If this was my profit loss ratio this month, I would have made seventy thousand dollars. So that goes to show how important metrics are. So if you're a trader who's not currently looking at these numbers, then and you're wondering why you lost money in August This is the first thing you can do.

look at your metrics. You can export all of these upload and trader view you know and and just ask yourself, what am I doing right? What am I doing wrong? If you can look at six months of data, then that's where you can start to compare a good month to a bad month. And this is where I see this was the difference. So you know if I look at the month of October 2017, we'll go way back here just for the heck of it.

And this is a month that was. The metrics are going to be quite a bit different on this month I wait no read November maybe was it October or November Now I'm confused I thought it was no. I guess it was Oh now maybe I'm just confused I For some reason I thought that I had a month where my profit loss ratio is like ridiculously good I Must be thinking of a different month because the profit loss ratio here is pretty much flat. Accuracies: Great eighty percent.

That's awesome. but ya know this wasn't the month I was thinking of. In any case, you know if if you're gonna have if the market does start to get slow, trying to reduce your average losers can help, right? Because then at least you don't have the big losses. So to reduce your average losers, you reduce your share size and you keep tighter stops.

so there is. There are some things you can do about this, but there's not a lot you can do about the average winners being smaller. If the average winners are smaller, then you've just got to adapt. You've got just a strategy for the month that you're in and I don't think I did that as quick as I could have in the month of August here this year and I I kept kind of being aggressive the first week and I dug myself a hole of $12,000 so I had to dig myself out.

but I got out and you know I'm gonna finish the month green and so that's good. Green is good. Alright, so anyways, that's about it for me here this morning. I Hope you guys again have a great weekend.

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