You won't believe how easy it is to be manipulated on the internet. I'm going to show you this in detail to explain why you're being manipulated and why it's actually important for you. This is the kind of perspective that I always want to bring to you. like whether you buy my courses or you just watch the videos or whatever.

I Want to be here for the rest of my life just to be able to add a different set of perspective for you. That's my goal. That's my dream. It brings me happiness and joy because somebody sent this to me the other day I was on a plane and I got this.

I Go Hm, Somebody said Kevin Is this truly worse than the 2008 financial crisis? I'm like, oh, here we go again. Always the comparisons to 2008 and that's fine. We can compare to other recessions because that's what's familiar. A lot of us went through 2008.

It was absolute hell. We don't want to go through that hell again. Some of us didn't go through 2008. Don't think it'll be that bad for themselves, yet.

We think there'll be an opportunity to go shopping for things during that time because things will be on sale so some of us are on the side. It's kind of like cheering for that. Of course, that does mean a lot of joblessness, sadness, and pain. Recessions are hard and so naturally I Looked at this and I'm like credit card defaults are rising at a level never seen in three decades.

So the first thing I thought was hm, where's the data from This is the first thing you should always think of is where's this data from So okay, they're suggesting the sources the Federal Reserve board, the National Bureau of Economic Research and themselves. So the usual. Trust me bro. But that's okay.

so what are they actually citing in this? Well, what they're saying is credit card delinquencies are rising fast. Hm. That's interesting. So first of all, on a daily basis, we study earnings.

We study company earnings, earnings calls, and we try to understand the fundamentals of what what are happening that doesn't necessarily align with what actually happens in the stock market. It's just fundamentally what are CEOs and Executives saying when you listen to the earnings calls of American Express Visa Chase Bank of America from earlier in the earning season. I actually didn't hear that so an antenna went up and I thought to myself, wait a minute, Credit card delinquencies are at the highest rising at the highest level in 30 years. What? I Something didn't align because that's not what the executives are saying.

They're saying that credit card delinquencies are normalizing and I'm like is somebody lying Okay, well this is where we get to the perspective because imagine this both could be true and this is where it's like oh, Kevin come on. but I want you to know about this because I think the people who watch this channel come for perspective where they're like I never thought about it that way. So where's the LIE Get to the bottom line. Kevin It's right here.

Year-over-year change in credit card delinquency rate as reported by all commercial Banks Did you hear that this is a percentage change comparison? Well, what do we know folks. Think about this. Okay, if you have, let's say $100 in debt and you're delinquent on that debt. And then all of a sudden you go into Co you're not delinquent anymore because everybody is forgiven.

You can't be delinquent. So you literally go from being a $100 delinquent. Or let's say 100 people are delinquent. Okay, we'll go with 100, people are delinquent, 100 people are delinquent and then you go to zero.

Okay, so you just had negative 100% delinquencies. Now all of a sudden, delinquencies went up to, you know, 20 and then they went to 40 and then they went to 80. Oh my. God they're doubling.

They're doubling. They're doubling. Of course, the rate of change is going to be insane coming up from zero. Duh.

When in the last 30 years have we literally said don't worry, we'll pay for your bills. If you're late or don't pay your bills, they won't affect your credit. That hasn't happened I think in the history of America Frankly, what happened in Co was so unique and it created these weird distortions. So I thought Okay, well in order to fact, check my impression, which is that something's wrong about this chart.

Okay, in order to fact, check that I need more data. So what do I do? Well I look up the delinquency rate on credit cards from the Federal Reserve board. Okay, so we go to St Louis Fred and what do we have? Delinquency rate on credit cards? This is the actual delinquency rate, not the year over-year change. So what do we have when we scroll down.

Ah, how interesting. The actual delinquency rate is a fraction above we're talking about like this point right here is 2.66% delinquency and this is 2.72 Don't get me wrong, it's trending up and it's going to be worse than what we had. Preo I Do believe that it's going to go up. It could go to 3% delinquency.

Heck, it could go to 4% delinquency. But even 4% delinquency would be similar to the low of what we had in 2004 5 and 6. And then you think oh well that you know that doesn't sound great. But look at the time.

even in the '90s before the Dotc bubble where sitting around 4 and a half to 5% So this right here is actually consistent with a normalization. Just like the CEOs are saying. now it could worsen. That is something to pay attention to.

But what I want you to think is wait a minute. Is that actually worse than what we've had in the last three decades? Can both of these things be true? And is there something else we need to talk about in this video? Yes and yes. So both of these charts are accurate. The problem is the game of Trades one is misleading and it's purposefully misleading because it's the stuff that gets views.

This is the stuff. and there's something else that's very important that I want to talk about. it has to do with earnings and like Tesla and Nas and all this other kind of stuff. So we got to talk about that as well.

But I I just want to finish on the uh, the argument here of when we read this stuff, we know it gets a lot of views and people are purposefully spending their days trying to make charts that are going to get likes on Twitter this say 3.2 th000 likes. That's about the same as me saying yay I'm a twin dad now like this is big news right? But the problem with it is it turns into what we call bare porn and I'm just now going to the comments people saying like oh but you know the FED says GDP is 5% clown clown clown and it's implying oh no, everybody's lying to us. All the data is rigged well. The reality is this is a factor of perspective.

Perspective matters. Now let's jump into some of the factors. We're going to take. Some of this perspective.

we just learned. we're going to talk about company earnings specifically Amazon Google Nas Let's touch on that quickly though. I Got to remind you November 1st it's around the corner. Okay, it is.

October 29th. That means we have like 2 and a half days left to invest in house. Haack If you want to get into my real estate company, the fund raise closes. The 2023 fundraise closes.

November 1st you want to be a founding investor. You're getting one toone valuation. You're a founding investor. Learn all about it at House.com Read the circular.

There's no dilution. This is fantastic. It's not to say there can't be other raises or might be other raises in the future, but obviously hopefully we hope those will be at higher valuation. Uh, but this is.

This is very rare for a company to offer founding shares, and I'm really, really enthused by House Act. Obviously it's my company like any founder is going to say that. but I Don't think there's ever been a Founder that's selling founder shares on social media before and so we're trying to break Norms Trying to do the best we can for the community. So learn more at House Hack.com The minimum to invest is 5,000 bucks you invest with credit card, debit card, a wire, whatever is easier for you.

and if you're International you can invest as well. And if you want more of my perspectives, you can go to Meetkevin.com to check out my noobvspro crash courses. The prices will be double within about the next 30 days, so buckle up for those and we'll start having the content actually come out since that's on pre-sale Now let's talk earnings now. I Find this interesting as well.

I Actually am a big admirer of papers because you're not getting this constant a new headline of streaming news and it's annoying even though that's literally what I have right there. But anyway, but that gives me alerts when there's breaking news. So uh, Tech earnings were strong. Why investors still hated them? Uh, so I'm going to give you uh, their version and then I'm going to give you my version.

Okay, my version's a little different, but they relate so and I think both of these are very useful. So uh, it has to do with expectations they're essentially talking about. look the Google and Amazon earnings. They were good, but people really expected or came to believe that AI was going to be some miracle for these companies way sooner, like for cloud.

way sooner than is probably a reality. I Agree that this is not a reality yet. The cloud AI Boom. I Do think the AI investment into Chips is where it's at? I'm a big investor in Intel Nvidia and to some degree, uh, AMD Asml TSM They've had volatility duh.

that's what happens with any kind of growth or or, uh, you know, new sector. But uh, I'm a big believer in those and uh, not so much in the software space. although I will say Microsoft and Amazon Great job Facebook and Google A risk factor at least as Barons is pointing out, advertising, the advertising slowdown hit largest according to Barons at the beginning of the invasion in Israel That's a risk factor because it could mean businesses are starting to adjust just to think oh, maybe a recession will come now because of the Israel war like we could deal with, you know, Ukraine and Russia But now that we have Israel Hamas Iran on top of this, this could hurt advertising and it's probably going to most hurt advertising in Q4 which is wild because this is when the biggest ad dollars should be spent. Yikes.

Now what's my perspective on this? Well, my perspective is is that remember when we come out of a disaster where like things essentially go to zero as we learned in the first part of this video, the next year-over-year changes are very, very high, right? But then you're comparing to that very very high threshold for growth and then when you normalize or Worse potentially go like even lower like negative In terms of growth, right? you go from like negative 50% growth to positive 50% growth and then you're going like neg 5% growth going. That neg5 is like really really painful. For some reason, even though the earnings are so much higher than what they used to be. I'll give you an example of this and forecast as well.

So if I look at a company like and phase and I go back at quarter over quarter growth. Okay I go all the way back to Uh 20 18. Let's say in 2018, let me read you the month-over-month percentages for growth that this company had. Uh, and when I say sorry I should say year-over-year percentage growth but on a quarterly basis So we clear that up every quarter.

what was the growth like? looking back to the last year in 2018: Q1: 27% Q2 1.6% Q3 1.3% Q4 15% Q1 2019 43% Okay, so you have like those lower percentages of growth, right? Okay, makes sense Then what happens? Well, then postco happens. What kind of growth do we get in 2021? 46% 151% 96 % 55% going into 2022 still 46% 67% 80% 75% As you can see very high year-over-year comparisons, right, where are we right now with this dog stock? Well, H Q3 year-over-year 13.2% This is not good Q4 Negative 50% next quarter. Well, the quarter thereafter. Q124 -41% % Q2 -28% Big adjustment.

Now when we look at that nominally this quarter of 351 million expected, we have not seen 351 million since Q3 of 21. So we're basically 2 years back so we had like a big surge. kind of went back two years in terms of the actual earnings and the trajectory though because those numbers are all way higher than 2018 2019 just for Giggles Like if you go, remember, 351 is like going back 2 years, right? But you go back to like the beginning of Coid you were and and right before Coid 2019, you were at 92 mil, 100 Mil 134 mil. So you're like still 3x those numbers.

but again, that percent change stuff gets people so riled up and nervous about growth in the future and expectations. It's all part of the postco process and it's hard because you see the pain in markets, but look at the growth going forward for end phase at least expectations which obviously could change, but hopes are based on CEO commentary and analyst projections you get back to Positive Growth q324 Yikes. That hopefully is right when rates get cut too. So maybe that's why you're seeing that.

79% growth Q4 24 51% growth sorry, 52% growth q125 q225 35% 25 % thereafter and it just sort of. That's actually when the estimates stop. Is it? Yeah, that's when the estimates stop, so it just gives you an example. The same is true at alphabet alphabet right now: Q4 - 7.2% followed by expectations of negative 1% -2% Uh, you go to Amazon You're looking at uh, just slower numbers postco, but not negative 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% but pretty consistent there quarter year-over year numbers 11% But the point is, everything's getting used to that, sort of that.

Oh my God Yay! Oh, and then the normalization. So that normalization doesn't necessarily mean recession. But don't get me wrong, a recession could definitely happen. And that's a fear because remember what a recession is, it's just two quarters in a row of negative GDP We already had that bro beginning of 2022, but it could happen again because you get the sort of volatile recovery and that's what you're doing is down up.

Oh, but it's not fun when it's the negative part. Hopefully this perspective helps though. I think it's very useful to understand this stuff. Check out House.

Just go to Meetkevin.com At the top, there's a banner has everything House Hack Financial Advice with Kevin The courses everything you want. So with that said, I Got to read this disclaimer for you. Even though I'm a licensed financial adviser, licensed real estate broker, and becoming a stock broker I Already passed my test, we still got to get through all that the other there's more testing to be done and such. We got to bring the Twins home that's in progress.

Stay tuned for updates on the twins and video of the twins. Super cute! Anyway, this video is neither personalized nor real estate advice for you. We didn't even talk about real estate. It's not tax, legal, or otherwise.

Personal advice, personalized advice, tailor to you. Remember that like I could say hey I Think it's a good financial decision for some people to buy bonds right now because you know you might be close-ish to bottom on bonds and have yields. you know to lock in, but doesn't mean it's right for everybody's situation. so that why that? Reas that's why that phrase exists.

personalized Financial Advice: That's why we say this video provides generalized perspective, information, and commentary. We didn't provide any thirdparty content, which, uh, you know? well I guess we did like this game of trade stuff. you know? Obviously, we criticize some of it. but I can't fact check everything inside their chart like how am I supposed to fact check their? Trust me bro.

That's why we like to say this Cont: Any kind of content we show is not endorsed by me. This video is not and shall never be deemed reasonably sufficient information for the purpose of evaluating the security and any promoted products like Streamyard. I Always mention Metkevin.com Streamyard is a paid affiliate just like others. Thanks so much for watching.

We'll see you in the next one. Good luck and goodbye. Why not advertise these things that you told us here I Feel like nobody else knows about this? We'll We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Congratulations man, you have done so much.

People love you. People look up to you Kevin P Financial Anist and YouTuber Meet Kevin Always wait to get your take.