Voyager digital just received a 400 million dollar bailout loan from ftx to stay alive in the madness. We're going through gemini, coinbase, crypto.com and a blockfi are no longer favoring the bold. Instead, they are laying off individuals and once hot venture capital investments are now raising money. At a significantly lower valuations within the crypto unicorn, space celsius, babel and fin blocks have frozen or capped withdrawals and tethers outstanding stablecoin market cap has plummeted.

18. Along with this, we have hit some fresh brand new lows yesterday, which thankfully we've already bounced off of in both bitcoin and ethereum, and so now the question is: is this the bottom or is this a new lehman brothers moment the start of a string of bankruptcies And despair: well, let's start by talking about it. First, we finally broke the rule of higher lows in bitcoin and when i say finally, it's not something to celebrate, although it is father's day. So maybe there is something to celebrate, but take a look at this about a week and a half ago i posted this video here.

This is a screenshot from the video, but anyway i explained that after every halving, we tended to have a new high, followed by a low during that having cycle, and when we look at that low there in green following the next having cycle that low has always Been above the dotted line which represents in blue that previous peak - and this is a good thing - the problem is right here. The previous peak that we face was right around 19 to 20 000 dollars, which clearly we have broken, and so why is that important? Well, it's psychologically important because every single time we have looked for a strong resistance level. It has been the prior halvings cycle high. However, that rule has now officially been broken by our crash well to into the seventeen thousand dollar figure range.

It's a problem, but beyond that we've also broken some other crazy norms. Take a look at the macd. We are at fantastic lows which we have seen in the past, but these are pretty bearish signals. That pain could still be to come when we look at tether's market cap.

We also see this incredible shift away from tether, which, if we look at the year-to-date chart here for tethers market cap, we've seen potential's market cap consistently going up, which it's important to know that market cap for a stable coin has nothing to do with falling prices. In other assets, this is generally a representation of fear of people leaving the tether market, since one dollar is pegged to one dollar. This is not just because the price of bitcoin is falling and the reason we know that is because people are fleeing tether by the amount of about or by an amount of about 18 or roughly 15 billion dollars. But at the same time - and this is how you know that this has nothing to do with price correlation - you look at usdc.

You actually see usdc stablecoin market cap increasing to the tune of roughly six billion dollars great. But what happened to the other nine billion dollars, then well, it's entirely possible that people believe after the tara luna collapse that tethers next and if tether goes then usdc might be next on the chopping block. But first we have to get through tether because there's always been tether, fud, which we're not going to heavily regurgitate in this video. But the big question around stable coins is always how much do you actually have in reserves? We know that tether, unlike usdc, does not actually keep one dollar per tether in reserve.

Instead, what they do is they keep things like bonds, whether they're corporate bonds or treasuries, and they keep sort of a mix of assets in reserves, and this is deemed to be a little bit more risky. So no surprise that we're seeing de-risking in the tether stable coin market, especially if there's ever going to be a stable coin implosion. It will never happen during a bull market. It will almost always happen in a bear market.

Now. Usdc could always be next, and i understand that people say oh, but kevin one dollar in usdc equals 1 usdc, that's fine, but we know that usdc via recursive yield. Farming can be so heavily leveraged up in that individuals who actually think they have cash staked in usdc might not be able to pull all of their liquidity at the same time, because their usdc has been lent out to another person simply put if you are lending Or if you're receiving a yield on your usdc, it may not be there for you if there's a sudden panic and everybody's trying to withdraw at the same time. That's because maybe it's been lent out one time 10 times or a hundred times to different people down the chain.

The reason it works now is because more people are actually moving money into usdc. As we see by this increasing market cap as people are de-risking from tether, providing plenty of liquidity for usdc, but don't get me wrong. My belief and i've talked about this at the end of 2020. Beginning of 2021 is that if btc hits somewhere around 5 000, we'll probably start seeing cracks in tether, followed by eventually usdc but yes of stable coins.

Usdc certainly is probably at this point one of the safest, but i still wouldn't have exposure to stable coins. In this kind of market, bull markets hell yeah, do i really care about six percent yield over the next three months? While we see what happens not really, if i was a long-term believer in crypto, i'd be buying the dip. That's something to consider now. Take a look at this.

This is btc on the weekly 200 week moving average. Take a look right here. Folks, we have collapsed under the 200 week moving average, which kathy wood told us was going to be a very strong support for bitcoin. It was not.

In addition to that, in the lifetime of bitcoin, we are officially now over sold. Take a look at this. This right here is the oversold line. We did not cross it at any other period when we look at this long term average, with the exception of now.

You could see us bounce here and here close, but now we finally crossed it. This is the full lifetime of bitcoin on the weekly moving average. We are substantially substantially selling hard here now we're going to talk about this daily hodler letter here in just a moment. But what i want to mention here is or question at least, is this the bottom, because it certainly feels like there's some indicators, like the indicators we're just looking at.

Of course, we've got bearish macd trends, because the moving averages have been straight down. So, of course, if you understand how macd works, then you're going to know that, of course, we're going to have bearish trends. There remember these are things that i teach in my stocks on psychology of money courses as well. Take a look at those linked down below not just those on stocks and the psychology of investing in long-term investing, but also those on real estate investing, because i expect a pretty large real estate dip coming up.

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Okay, so now is this the bottom. Well, one of the things that we want to consider is that the grayscale bitcoin trust right now, which is an investment vehicle for uh institutions to invest in bitcoin, is actually now instead of trading at a premium which it used to do during the crazy bull runs Of of well, the cryptocurrency days is now trading at a discount to net asset value of 33.71. This is a record low. This is crazy and it's a sign that people in the institutional space are trying to rid bitcoin off their balance sheet, probably because they're getting too many calls from their customers going.

Get me out of here. It's quite unfortunate, but now is that why potentially we're hitting lows, maybe because this is where, if we go over here to the daily huddle dock, we can see something very interesting. We can see that about a billion dollars worth of bitcoin was moved from coinbase to various different unknown wallets, which we could track on the blockchain. But then what's very interesting is, after that, take a look at that within an hour.

The same amount of money was transferred to various different platforms potentially and then back to coinbase here, potentially to pay off loans or collateralize other companies, and we don't. Even though we have cryptocurrency transparency via the blockchain, we don't necessarily have the exact knowledge of who is making these transactions, and this is a little bit problematic because we'd like to know hey michael saylor, are you in there? Are these ftx transactions going on over to voyager? Nobody knows, but what we do know is we're seeing some massive whale movements and sometimes massive whale movements can mark bottoms in addition to seeing whale movements - and this is sort of a third reason we can see bottoms. So, in addition to all the ta, we talked about grayscale, bitcoin, trust being at a record discount to net asset value potential sign of a bottom huge whale movements, potential signs of a bottom. But a third potential reason for a bottom is the fact that hey we've got now.

Eighty percent of bitcoin market value locked up by long-term hodlers in prior cycles of crashes, anytime, we've gotten above 80 percent long-term huddlers, rather than just short-term speculators having like, sometimes 40 market share. Once we get above 80 long term, we tend to be in a market where we tend to experience bottoms, and then we have a fourth potential reason for a bottom and that is jim cramer, says we're going to 12 000.. So this is obviously leading some to say: that's it the bottom's already in and we're going to double before we go to 12k, but now, in all seriousness, here's the fact and the reality is this a lehman brothers moment or is this the bottom? Nobody knows what we do know is that the fed's tightening cycle is going to last - probably at least another year to 18 months and we're probably not going to get easy money days until the fed u-turns again. So we've got a lot of time to go or a lot of time to buy the dip, depending on how you look at it.

We also know that now, after all this and the tara luna disaster, we're gon na be exposed to a whole lot of crazy new regulation and etf challenges, so fingers crossed for the btc and overall crypto space, altcoins nfts, you name it but boy. Oh boy, we've been through a ride and it's not clear that the ride is over. Yet thanks for watching and we'll see you next time, bye.