What's up grandma's guys here so as usual, the market makes absolutely no sense and continues proving time and time again that anything can happen. For example, even though the nasdaq just narrowly avoided its worst january ever in history, when asked about the future expectations of the market, 62 percent of my instagram respondents felt, like prices were going to fall lower, even though immediately after 65 agreed that the more people thought The market was going to drop the less likely it was to actually drop, which is really just another way of saying we are for real. We got a lot to talk about today, because now we have statistical evidence that proves exactly when the stock market is most likely to see the next rally. Why warren buffett is now outperforming kathy wood, how home prices are growing increasingly out of control? Will rents rise as high as 35 percent when we're gon na see an upcoming cryptocurrency executive order right as kathy wood predicts one million bitcoin before an ominous crypto winter? And if that wasn't scary enough, a twitter account is now tracking the whereabouts of elon musk's private jet, even though he offered five thousand dollars to take it down.

So sit back, relax grab some popcorn and you can hear all of that and more on. Today's episode of finding new ways to creatively ask you to hit the like button and subscribe, because it helps me out tremendously with the almighty youtube algorithm. So thank you guys so much and also big. Thank you to ftx for sponsoring today's video, but more on that later, all right.

So the first order of business that we have to talk about is the stock market. Even though a large portion of the market fell to its worst january in decades, and we've been warned that a catastrophic stock market crash isn't over, we need to talk about what history says about these types of movements, because i have to say the more i looked Into it, the more surprised i was to start it's easy to see why people are still extremely concerned about the state of the market, with an upcoming interest rate hike expected in less than 45 days and our economy at the brink of slowing down. Morgan stanley. Even warned their clients to hunker down for a few more months while slowed earnings, growth in federal reserve uncertainty, topped the primary market concern.

However, what i found really interesting is that the historical data tells an entirely different story. Marketwatch noted that when the economy is not in a recession, the average s p, 500 correction saw a decline of just 15.4 percent with very few, resulting in a bear market where prices would fall at least 20 percent cnbc also analyzed 11 periods since 1990, where the S p 500 declined more than 10 percent in a quarter and they found that the index posted an average return of seven percent that, following quarter and even more surprising, both the s, p 500 and dow jones have posted positive results after a 10 decline. In all periods, except after 9, 11 during the dot-com bubble, that was it and if we want to take it a step further since 1990, both indexes posted average one-year gains above 18 in the annual periods after a quarter decline of 10 or more in the s P 500.: it was also found that stock market pullbacks of 10 or more occurred 11 times throughout the last 20 years, and some of the highest returning days occurred right after some of the worst performing days, meaning if you're not invested during those top moving days. Your overall return, as an investor begins to drop substantially, for example, since 1950, if you just missed the top 10 best trading days.

Your overall return drops from seven and a half to six point. Two percent missing the best 15 days takes you down to five point. Eight percent and missing the best 25 days brings you down to just a five percent annual return in 2020. The cost of missing those five best days was, as bloomberg calls annihilation, because you would have ended the year with a loss of 30 percent seriously.

That's a very scary statistic in terms of how important those days are to you as an investor. The moral of the story is just this when you invest as long as you're diversified within a good company or a good index. The best thing to do is absolutely nothing just keep holding stay invested and keep buying. If the market drops that's your chance to buy more and if it drops even further, don't panic and just keep buying as usual.

Eventually things will recover now. I know this sounds like the typical boring repetitive investment advice that you hear all the time, but the fact is, this strategy has worked over the last 100 years, so why fix what isn't broken? However? This only applies to the stock market and when it comes to cryptocurrency, there's a lot more to break down. First, we have quite a few headlines talking about a crypto winters. Prices fell 50 from their peak and 65 of the month was spent in a decline.

Now, in the big picture, a 50 drop in cryptocurrency is actually rather mild, with an average pullback being closer to 77 percent and lasting approximately seven to eight months. This is all leading to fears that we could soon be entering what's known as a crypto winter, as prices fall and then lay dormant for sometimes months or even years, while the market consolidates, for example, the stock to flow model has predicted bitcoin's price since 2010, and The entire market routinely sees a period of exponential growth, a sell-off, a period for cooling off, and then it's back up even further. That's not to suggest that this will always happen in the future, just because it's happened in the past. But if history is any indication, a crypto winter is nothing to panic about, and it's just a normal part of staying invested.

The payoff for holding according to kathy wood is a bitcoin price, reaching a million dollars by 2030, along with a 185 000 ethereum, as it might displace traditional financial services and its native token ether could compete as global money. Even though that's going to be a very tall order to fill because second, we have a cryptocurrency executive order, we have to talk about since the beginning of cryptocurrency's entire existence. Regulators have been frothing at the mouth for the opportunity to track tax and contain it from turning into a money-grabbing loophole. As far as what we currently know, the white house is set to label cryptocurrency as a threat to national security and in the next few weeks, they'll test government agencies to develop regulatory policies around crypto, nfts and stable coins.

The executive order is most likely going to make an appearance in the next few weeks with the goal of developing a framework from which cryptocurrency could operate legally. Of course, bloomberg also reported that the agency is expected to weigh in on the possibility of the us issuing a government-backed coin, known as a central-backed digital currency, according of course, to the people familiar with the talks, and even though we don't know exactly what's going to Be written in the executive order, it does seem as though what they want to do is assign specific roles for various levels of the government, oversee policy responses and potentially develop their own us-backed stablecoin, instead of just banning cryptocurrency altogether. In the big picture, though, i see this as a sign that they're taking it very seriously and they're doing their best to assimilate it within our economy. Even bank of america says that, in this case, regulation is a good thing in that, once rules are established, the uncertainty over how to invest in crypto will be lifted.

However, where i believe this is going to eventually be an issue is at the point where the sec begins, calling certain cryptocurrencies securities, which represents a piece of ownership, that people could buy and sell for a profit. As of now, it's far too easy for anybody to launch an nft, create their own ico, pump it to the moon and then rug pull it while their buyers lose millions. So, overall, i think that regulation is going to add a new layer of trust to the entire market, and once that happens, even more people will feel comfortable buying and using it, especially when scams are by far the top threat to investors according to the sec. I also think all of this is just getting us one step closer to eventually getting a bitcoin etf, which is something to absolutely look forward to so in terms of where you could buy cryptocurrencies safely and for an affordable price.

Look no further than the sponsor of today's video ftx they're, one of the largest and most complete cryptocurrency apps in the entire world, with more than 6 million users who buy, sell track and trade, both cryptocurrency and nfts, all in one place for less than the competition For example, ftx has no minimum fixed fees on transactions; no ach fees, no withdrawal fees and no nft fees. On top ethereum and solana, collections they're also the world's most popular cryptocurrency tracking platform, allowing their users to track prices on more than 10 000 different options, not to mention they're perfect for the long-term investor. By allowing you to automatically set up recurring, investments to dollar cost average into the markets and you can earn free crypto on every trade over ten dollars. Plus you could use their crypto debit card at millions of merchants worldwide, oh, and also fun fact of the day.

They just raised 400 million dollars at a 32 billion valuation in their first funding round, making them one of the world's most valuable, privately held exchanges and their founders. Sam bakeman freed was recently called the world's most generous billionaire with his mission to donate the vast majority of his fortune, plus he doesn't waste his money in a lamborghini, so that's kind of cool. So if you're interested in learning more and signing up feel free to use my link down below in the description and just use the code graham, so thank you guys so much now with that said, let's get back to the video and finally, in terms of what's Going on with the market, we have to talk about real estate. In the last year, prices have risen another 18, according to the national home price index.

However, it's beginning to show signs of slowing down having increased at a slightly slower pace than previously suggesting that potentially the market might, dare i say it soft. This comes at the same time that mortgage rates jump for the third straight week under the assumption that the fed will begin to raise rates in march, thereby making the cost of getting a loan slightly more expensive. However, the real punch to the market over the next year isn't going to be so much rising prices, but instead it's going to be rising rents. It's so much.

In fact, that utah saw a 35 increase in rents and it's likely to only get worse see. One thing to keep in mind is that when you sign a rental agreement, you lock in that price for a set period of time - it's usually one to two years, but during that time, rental prices could fluctuate, but you're not going to feel the effects of higher Rents until all of a sudden, your lease is up, and then it costs you a lot more money like throughout the country. Rents are up 14 year over year and with a lack of supply and increasing costs. Rents have to go up just to make financial sense.

Of course it's very easy to blame it all on the greedy landlords who try to extract as much money from the tenants as possible, but the fact is increasing housing prices means the overhead just to break even on a property is a lot higher. The labor for repairs and maintenance is also a lot more expensive as well. Materials could also often be so backlogged that they now cost two to three times higher than they used to. As a landlord myself, i've seen it that every single aspect of owning a property is now significantly more expensive than it was a few years ago, including my own insurance and property tax.

It's no different than going to the grocery store and seeing coffee prices rise, because there's a shortage of labor shipping costs more and the end result is that you have to earn more to pay for it now. Obviously, something like this could only go on for so long until things begin to slow down, but since so many rental agreements are beginning to expire and renew, if you're, in a position where you're renting and you want to keep your costs fixed, do your best to Shop around negotiate with your landlord, lock in a longer term up front and make yourself as indispensable as possible. I'll tell you from first-hand experience. It's way cheaper to keep a good tenant who's, paying less than it is to re-rent a property to a new tenant who's.

Paying more, who might be difficult to work with so absolutely use that to your advantage and just expect that throughout the next year, rising rents are going to be a main topic of discussion. So, overall, moral of the story - it's always better to keep buying into the market, stay the course as usual and expect that, honestly anything can happen. Let's face it. Sometimes the entire stock market is completely unpredictable and it'll often do the exact opposite of what you think.

It will like, in 2020, the companies who were facing bankruptcy saw the highest returns and, in 2022, the companies with the best earnings are falling 25 on weak guidance, but long term. As long as you stick with the plan, keep investing hold as usual and hit the like button for the youtube algorithm he'll come out ahead, profitable, not financial advice for entertainment purposes, only just in case i'm wrong. So with that said, you guys thank you so much for watching make sure to subscribe, feel free to add me on instagram or on my second channel. The graham stefan show i post there every single day.

I'm not posting here. So if you want to see a brand new video for me every single day, make sure to add yourself to that and then, lastly, since we did all this talk about stocks, if you want a free stock, that's now worth all the way up to a thousand Dollars use the link down below in the description and sign up for public using the code. Graham just go, and do it you're going to have a good time you're going to enjoy the app. Thank you so much for watching and until next time.