Good morning! this is Tom and let's talk about the upcoming rug pool. This is a super important warning Now look I'm on my way to the gym I Wasn't even planning to do this video but I'm very worried from what I see and I don't want to see people get hurt. Look, this isn't financial advice. Do your own research.

You know you have to do the work yourself. You can't rely on YouTube videos for any investment decisions. You know this better you know. I'm not a financial advisor, just a guy.

Didn't have an opinion. Might be wrong, Maybe an accurate blah blah blah. all the good stuff. so take it with a grain of salt.

But here's my opinion about what I'm seeing right now. and I'm really terrified and I'm terrified because look, the stock market is a very uneven game. If you're Trading eighty percent of the money in the trading game comes from institutional investors. They're the big boys.

20 of money comes from rated investors. Now retail investors are basically showing up in my opinion, uh, to a gunfight with knives and some of them do win I know a few, but unfortunately most actually lose if you look at the S P 500 right of the past What 20 years it made eight percent a year 90 of retail investor lost money. At that time, retail investors that are trading are very very underpowered versus the big boys. They don't have the information, they don't cheat, etc etc etc.

Now look now that I'm accusing anybody of anything, right? you know it is what it is. The game is rigged. Everybody knows it Now as a long-term investor. Obviously, you get immune to all this because you just you know you stick with your convictions and it is what it is.

But here's what I'm seeing right now: I'm seeing a lot of narrative within the retail. Community Some of it actually is in my community from people that are basically getting hyped about the upcoming bull market and everybody's getting excited again. And I know it's tough because you've been sidelined for so long. You know the market has been trashed and everybody's just looking for a way out of this.

but I Just want to warn you. Look, what drives the stock market right now as it stands is the monetary policy. We haven't really seen a market like this in a long time now. Look, on the one hand, the Federal Reserve drives the bus.

Whatever the FED does will inevitably drive what happens with the market. On the other hand, the FED is pretty much an impossible situation. They have basically told the banks in 2020 to release all the reserves in March 2020. The FED all the banks hate.

You don't have to hold any cash as a percentage of Reserves Let it. Loose They were trying to flood the market with money and they thought it was a good idea now. They also operated in a zero percent interest environment which meant that all these deposits that started coming to the banks went into bonds. and when the FED raised interest rates, what happens is that bond prices dropped and all these bonds the banks were sitting on basically got slashed.

and now one thing led to another and One Bank needed cash super fast and then the whole game was up. Everybody knew about this cheat code. all these Banks were hiring for the better part of two years. about two trillion dollars of unrealized losses because of these bonds.

and nobody knew about it. Not in the FED actually, because they classify them as an, you know, long-term Health maturities bonds, whatever right so they wouldn't appear in the financials. Now Svb uncovered this and now everybody's terrified because you know there's 1.7 trillion dollars of unrealized losses across the banking system. and for smaller Banks that's a problem.

So that's potentially You know that's potentially a risk of a bank run against other smaller Banks We've seen Signature go down FRC on the brink of collapse, etc etc. Now these banks are stuck. The smaller Banks I mean without any reserves because the FED emptied it out. Getting back this Reserve right now is really impossible because you know they don't want to sell these bonds to the last.

It's going to trigger more fear. And If the Fed keeps raising rates. The problem's gonna get worse as the FED keeps raising rates to battle inflation. The price of these bonds that people bought for 100 will go to 50, 40, 30 and then the fears would be worse.

Now that should not be a problem. If the banks are going to sit on these bonds till maturity, that shouldn't be a problem. And in the only scenario that doesn't happen is when people run for The Banks and ask for the money all at once. then they have to sell these bonds at laws and that creates more fear.

Etc Literally What happened with Svb? Now until the FED knows until the FED knows that there isn't a chance that people will run for these Banks and Trigger another Avalanche Like that they're gonna let this game continue. They're going to start slowing down. They went from half a point they were supposed to raise to 0.25. I Believe they'll do another 0.25 just to see where things stand and then they're going to reassess.

And at that point they have two decisions. Decision: Number One Banks are still in a bad shape. The fear is too big. We have to lower rates that Sparks A quick Euphoria in the stock market.

but long-term inflation goes roaring back in ruining the economy. the profit margins, unemployment. basically a recession and that leads obviously to another bad. Market The other option is the banks are better.

Let's say in two months, the banks are great. The Feds decides to raise rates again to battle inflation. What happens? You know the stock market is not gonna love it. Money becomes more expensive, more scarce credit crash Etc et cetera.

economy isn't going to like it and the stock market isn't going to like it either. So this is a double-edged sword. No matter what the FED does long term talking months, it isn't a good setup for the stock market. In one option, you might get a small rally, but in both options, it doesn't seem like there's a way out of this without crashing the market.

So when I see people kind of bullish about this upcoming you know the NASDAQ is in the Bull Run et cetera. Michael Berry is admitting that he was wrong, saying that you should sell, etc etc. Be very careful I don't want to tell you what to do I'm not a Trader you do it on trades I don't get involved with that. But all I'm saying that all I'm saying is be careful before you buy into the hype because this whole game is rigged.

The big boys, they want you to get excited like a good car salesman. They get. You know they get you excited about a lemon and then when they sell you that lemon, they make money. This is literally what happens in Wall Street.

You know I'm not saying that the market isn't going to rap. Maybe we go to 4 600 and S P 500. I Don't know. but the fact of the matter is I don't know, You don't know.

The only ones who know are the big boys. and if I see a lot of exciting and Retail Community it's always like that story about the shoeshine Boyne Who talks to you about his portfolio? Be very careful. See you later.