What's up you guys, it's graham here so today we're literally going to be talking about my favorite topic in the entire world, and i know you think this might be a setup for me to say, and that topic is asking you to smash that like button for The youtube algorithm, but no one being serious, we're going to be talking about what's going on with the real estate market in 2021, whether or not it's poised for a collapse and what you could do in light of this information. After all, this isn't exactly an easy topic for anybody to answer, because, on the one hand, inventory is at its all-time record. Low mortgage rates have hit their record low more than 13 times this year, and analysts at the national association of realtors are predicting that these conditions will cause the housing market to go up another eight percent next year. However, on the other hand, mortgage forbearances are ticking upwards, more tenants have fallen behind on their payments, and some economists are predicting a wave of foreclosures that will crash down in 2021 so which one is right today, we'll be sifting through every single well-formed piece of data And research that i could find highlighting the struggles and issues that real estate is likely to face in 2021 and then we'll cover exactly what you could do about it, based on actual studies, analysis and statistics from as far back as i could find.

But then, of course, i will give you my own anecdotal opinion at the end, because this is my video and i could do whatever i want in here. I guess i never thought about that. I can't do anything. Hmm if i were to do anything.

What would i do well, i would most likely offer you four free stocks when you deposit 100, on weeble, using the link down below in the description, because those stocks could potentially be worth up to sixteen hundred dollars, and at that rate it's pretty much free money. But seriously that offer aside here's everything you need to know about the 2021 housing market and whether or not it's a good time to buy during all of these crazy times. So, thank you so much for watching and as usual, here's a crazy cool transition all right. So, let's begin with the good news first and then we'll talk about the bad news, because who doesn't like hearing the good news? First right, it makes us all nice and happy before being slammed into the ground by the bad news.

By the way, i can't tell if my choice in shirt just makes it look like i'm a floating head here: uh, if that's the case, i'll, wear a white shirt next time anyway. We'll first begin with this article from the national association of realtors, who launched a survey among 20 top u.s economic and housing experts who predicted that housing prices would see an increase of 8 in 2021. Well, i guess this is not exactly good news. If you're a buyer but if you're a seller or you're an owner of real estate, then you're probably pretty happy to hear this now, i'm sure by now you're probably wondering how can real estate prices continue to go up even higher? This is getting absurd and, admittedly there are a few factors that are helping push up prices even further the most noticeable one.

If you've spent a few minutes browsing homes online is the lack of inventory. It's recently recorded that the number of homes currently listed for sale on the market is at its all-time lowest level, ever recorded going back nearly 40 years now. Something like this is typically calculated by what's called the month's supply of inventory. This looks at the sales volume.

The number of homes currently on the market and how long it would take for all of those homes to be bought up the result is then how many months of supply is on the market. For example, we could see that throughout the 1990s there was between 6 and 10 months worth of inventory on the market, meaning that, if all homes suddenly stopped being listed, it would take between 6 and 10 months for all of the buyers out there to buy up All of the homes until there's nothing left, then in the 2000s that number steadily dropped to five months worth of supply as more and more people bought up homes and then, of course, when the housing market collapsed and foreclosures were everywhere, inventory increased to an almighty 10 Months worth of supply, and now in 2020, we're sitting at the record low of just 2.4 months worth of supply, the lowest level in well ever now. Obviously, a big reason for the lack of homes being listed is that homeowners might be under pressure just to stay where they are and have chosen to delay listing their home until things calm down or they just don't want to take the risk with strangers, walking through Their homes, at a time where the illness is a big concern, but besides that, we also have some other factors that greatly contribute to the lack of inventory and the biggest one being record low interest rates, driven, of course, by the feds, reducing their federal funds rates. All the way down to zero percent like over this last year, it seems like literally every other week.

It's a brand new record interest rate low and that's because it definitely has rates have now dropped below 2.7 percent on a standard 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and just for reference. Last year, interest rates were around 3.7 percent, which means they were about 40 percent higher than we're. Seeing today now, if you want me to put that into numbers for you, because a change like that is kind of hard to put into perspective a 300 000 mortgage at 3.7 interest would cost you 1381 dollars a month with 920 per month going to interest. But at 2.75 interest that exact same loan is now only going to cost you 1216 a month with only 675 a month going towards interest.

That means the difference between 2.7 and 3.7 percent on a 300 000 mortgage means you get to keep an extra 250 dollars. A month every single month, over 30 years, that also means because of that home buying demand is increased and increased and increased to a brand new record high. A survey found that more than half of all buyers felt like it was a good time to buy because of insanely low mortgage interest rates. So it's no surprise.

That's driving a large portion of people to buy a home and lock in those interest rates, while they still can so between low interest rates, low inventory and high demand. It's become a bit like the perfect storm for real estate prices to rise abnormally faster than usual, but i'm sure you might also be wondering why don't they just go and build more homes to satisfy all this demand? Well, that would absolutely help, but there are a few roadblocks to that. One strict building codes make it nearly impossible to create affordable housing and two. The cost of building materials has increased significantly this year and that's added on to the final price that you pay for your finished product.

That leads many economists to believe that next year is going to be more of the same with real estate prices. Continuing to increase the federal reserve has said it themselves that they plan to leave interest rates unchanged. Inventory is still at its record low and unless a big portion of the market decides to list their home all at the exact same time, we're unlikely to see much of a change anytime soon. However, not everyone is so optimistic and to counter all the talk about the housing market going up.

I think it's only fair that we talk about the reasons the housing market could wait for it. Go down we'll start off with this economist, michael strain. Talking about the foreclosure wave that will crash down in 2021 now he starts by talking about what we've already covered: interest rates and inventories at an all-time record. Low demand is sky high and that's driving up the price of housing, but where he differs, is in.

What's called the k-shaped recovery see in the beginning of the year, we had all of these letters to signal what type of recovery we would have in the market. The most common was the v-shaped recovery, which meant that we would drop down and then shoot right back up, but there was also talks about a j-shaped recovery. An l-shaped recovery and a w-shaped recovery and what's kind of taking shape now, is what's called a k-shaped recovery. This signals that some sectors and people see their wealth and income skyrocket like that upper line of the k, while the others on the bottom line of the case, see their incomes dry up and businesses shut down.

Now this is evident a lot in the stock market as well. Tech companies like amazon and shopify have been booming, but oil companies in retail are still down from where they were now. This economist says that the k-shaped recovery is going to hit low-income homeowners the hardest, which is where we're going to see a wave of foreclosures. He also goes on to say that, as of recently 10 of the 8 million single family mortgages, backed by the fha, were delinquent by more than three months.

He then says that this is cause for concern, because the only reason we're not seeing a wave of foreclosures right now is because of a provision in the cares act that temporarily freezes foreclosures until 2021, which, as we could tell, is coming up pretty soon. Now, when i heard this, i wanted to get the full picture behind it, because when you hear that 10 of all fha backed mortgages are in default, that is 800 000 homes in potential foreclosure. So, in order to get some reference as to how bad that is, we need to have some context as to what it normally is well through september of 2018, the rate of seriously delinquent loans was about 3.7 and at any given point in time, historically, eight to Nine percent of fha loans are behind on their payments by 30 days or more so yes, fha loans more than 90 days late are more than double what they were just two years ago, but given that most of the time, almost four percent of all fha loans Are more than 90 days behind in their payments and the prominence of how easy it is to apply for mortgage-related forbearance? It's really not as bad as one might expect it to be now, besides that, we also have some very interesting news from the national multi-family housing council. Try saying that five times anyway, they track how many tenants pay their rent and at which point of the month.

Now this is another metric, that's very important for us to look at, because this gives us context as to what many landlords might be experiencing and when their tenants are not paying rent. That could spell disaster for future evictions. Well, they found, as of november 93.6, of tenants all paid their rent in full for the month. However, that was a decline from 95.2 in the year prior again, all things considered.

It's not that bad. Of course, people will inevitably say, but graham they said that only 75.4 percent of tenants paid their rent in december. That means that 25 percent of tenants are going to get evicted, and to that i say no, it does not work like that. This only counts full payments that have been processed by the sixth of the month.

Now, as we could see. Historically, only about 20 percent of tenants have consistently paid the rent after the sixth of the month, and payments are always lower when the cutoff ends in a weekend and the payments can't be processed. So i guarantee by the end of december, this number is going to be significantly higher and more in line with statistical trends or in other words, it's not going to be as bad as if you just looked at this and nothing else. And finally, let's talk about foreclosures the data company black knight found that 2.75 million mortgages or 5.2 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage were an active forbearance as of december 8th and yeah.

If 2.75 million mortgages all went into foreclosure at the exact same time, that would be recipe for a disaster. But thankfully there is a much more broad perspective when it comes to this. So here's what you need to know there's estimated to be 138 million total housing units in the u.s that includes single-family, multi-family, condos and apartment buildings and of all of those buildings. 40 percent of them are completely owned outright with no mortgage, then of those properties with a mortgage which is estimated to be about 50 million properties.

The mortgage bankers association found that 5.83 are in a mortgage forbearance plan which they say, impacts 2.9 million households. But let's keep going even further down this rabbit hole in order for a home to be foreclosed on. It needs to be taken over by the bank, and the seller must generally owe more on the home than what it's worth. Otherwise, the seller would just list the home on the market and sell it and then walk away without a foreclosure.

Well, in terms of how many people out there owe more on the home than what the home is worth, the data company corelogic found that only 3 percent of all mortgaged properties are underwater, which is at an all-time low. That means that homeowners on average have more equity and worth in their home than any other point in history. So now we're gon na be doing some really exciting math. If we assume that all three percent of those underwater homes go into foreclosure from those 5.83 of mortgages that are currently in forbearance, that means that only 0.1749 of all mortgaged properties would go into foreclosure, and that equates to 96 000 homes.

Out of 138 million total housing units now, in other cases where the homeowner is unable to make the payment, they would most likely list their home on the market for sale, they would sell it. They would get back some of the money that they have in the property and then they would move to a less expensive area or they would use whatever they have left over to rent until they could get back on their feet. So, overall, given the numbers and the evidence presented to us, no a wave of foreclosures is highly unlikely if happening in 2021. That would just crash the real estate market.

So where does this now leave us? Well, the redfin ceo says that this crazy home buying demand is likely to continue into 2021.. This is going to be driven by people who tried to buy this year, but weren't able to so they're going to be looking again next year. He also even admits that this type of price increase is absolutely unsustainable and will eventually come to an end and right now, a lot of the home buying demand is driven by people who have the finances to take advantage of cheap money. The data company corelogic also expects real estate prices to continue to increase as well.

Although they see home prices only going up 1.9 percent year-over-year, although they don't necessarily have the best track record with estimating some of these predictions. As we could see from this old report earlier in the year and yeah, they were pretty off so all in all, it looks as though barring any sort of unexpected events that none of us could predict is gon na happen, which i hope i didn't just jinx. It there most likely we're going to be in for more of the same in 2021, although most likely we're going to start to see more inventory coming on the market, and maybe prices won't go up as much as they were this year. This situation is much different than what we saw in 2008, which was driven by unsustainable adjustable-rate mortgages that anyone could get into who didn't have the finances to buy a home with no money down today, home equity is at an all-time high.

People are very qualified to purchase the homes that they're buying and interest rates are locked in at their lowest levels ever in history. This is likely going to continue until we either get higher interest rates. The cost of materials goes down to build a home. Zoning restrictions ease up to create more affordable housing or you win the lottery and can buy whatever you want without looking at the price.

But most importantly, i don't expect there to be this mass wave of foreclosures. I don't expect there to be this cataclysmic event that causes the real estate market to collapse and if everything stays the same as it is right now, it's probably going to be another wild year for real estate in 2021. So with that said, you guys thank you. So much for watching, i really appreciate it as always make sure to destroy the like button.

Subscribe button and notification bell also feel free to add me on instagram, i posted pretty much daily. So if you want to be a part of it, there feel free to add me there. As my second channel. The gram stefan show i post there every single day - i'm not posting here.

So if you want to see a brand new video for me every single day, make sure to add yourself to that. And lastly, if you guys want those four free stocks use, the link down below in the description and weeble is going to be giving you four free stocks when you deposit a hundred dollars on the platform with those stocks potentially worth all the way up to 1 600, so if you want those stocks, pretty much free money at that point, let me know which stocks you get. Thank you so much for watching and until next time.