Its tough to imagine, but the war in Ukraine in now entering its 6th month. And while heavy fighting continues in east Ukraine, there is a whole other war going on between Russia, on one side, and the U.S. and Europe on the other. This is an all out economic warfare. And yes, even though there are no actual gun shots being fired as part of THIS war, much like any other war, the results are nothing less than catastrophic for all parties involved. This is why in this video I would like to offer you an objective view on who is actually losing this economic war.
00:00 Economic Battle - US VS Russia
00:52 Round 1: Inflation
01:22 Round 2: GDP Growth
02:16 Round 3: US Dollar VS Russian Ruble
02:40 Who is actually winning?
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DISCLAIMER: All of Tom's trades, strategies, and news coverage are based on his own opinions alone and are only done for entertainment purposes. If you are watching Tom's videos, please Don't take any of this content as guidance for buying or selling any type of investment or security. Tom Nash is not a financial advisor and anything said on this YouTube channel should not be seen as financial advice. Tom is merely sharing his own personal opinion. Your own results in the stock market or with any type of investment may not be typical and may vary from person to person. Please keep in mind that there are a lot of risks associated with investing in the stock market so do your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.
00:00 Economic Battle - US VS Russia
00:52 Round 1: Inflation
01:22 Round 2: GDP Growth
02:16 Round 3: US Dollar VS Russian Ruble
02:40 Who is actually winning?
Improve your investment strategy by getting access to institutional-grade research tools and data from TipRanks. Get a 10% discount for TipRanks by using this link below:
https://bit.ly/3BJA7KJ
*Disclosure: I only recommend products I would use myself and all opinions expressed here are our own. This post may contain affiliate links that at no additional cost to you, I may earn a small commission.
👏👏 Big shout out to our growing list of Patreons. For those of you want (and can) support our channel, here is how you can help: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=13016082
The audio and video equipment I use to make videos:
* Sony A7Siii: https://amzn.to/3IW4AcF
* Sony 16-35 GM: https://amzn.to/3g7o4i2
* Ninja Atomos: https://amzn.to/3451Zya
* Rodecaster Pro: https://amzn.to/3KWUhqf
* Shure sm7b: https://amzn.to/3GfbasL
* Light Nova p300 C: https://amzn.to/3AIZb5M
DISCLAIMER: All of Tom's trades, strategies, and news coverage are based on his own opinions alone and are only done for entertainment purposes. If you are watching Tom's videos, please Don't take any of this content as guidance for buying or selling any type of investment or security. Tom Nash is not a financial advisor and anything said on this YouTube channel should not be seen as financial advice. Tom is merely sharing his own personal opinion. Your own results in the stock market or with any type of investment may not be typical and may vary from person to person. Please keep in mind that there are a lot of risks associated with investing in the stock market so do your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.
This is tom and i know it's tough to imagine. But the war in in ukraine. Has been going on for six months and while heavy fighting continues in. Ukraine there's a whole other.
Warfare going on right now between russia. Us. And europe. This is an all out economic warfare and yes.
Even though there are no actual gunshots being fired as part of this war much like any other war. The results here are going to be nothing less than catastrophic for all parties involved now look i know absolutely nothing about military strategy tanks machine guns rockets all that stuff i can't comment on the physical battlefield. I know jack about it however i know finance economics and i can actually offer you an objective view on who's actually. Losing this economic warfare.
So let's talk about this economic attrition war both parties will tell you they don't feel the pain like two boxes in the ring. But the truth is much more nuanced than that trust me so we know that the us has horrible inflation the worst in 40 years 91. Inflation that's no joking matter but what about russia well russia's official inflation rate just climbed to 16 and that's for june now it's significantly higher than the us. So this round definitely goes to the us.
Let's do round number. Two gdp growth. So the gross domestic product. Just to explain is the total value of all goods and services produced within the country's border in a specific year and let's start with russia in this round now.
Russia's own central bank. Says its gdp will shrink by 10 this year. While the institute of international finance. Actually says.
It's probably closer to 15 percent. So anywhere from 10 to 15 negative decline time in 2022 for russia. However what about the us. It can't be good well.
It's not amazing. I'm gonna be honest with you in fact in june the international monetary fund actually reduced us gdp growth forecasts for 29 for the year which is a big drop off from just. April where the number was 37. Percent.
Now both numbers are not something to write home about but while the us is actually still growing russia is shrinking by 10 to 15 percent. So this round has to go to the us as well now let's talk about currency around three so the us versus ruble was actually 75 to 1 before february 2022 when rash actually invaded ukraine and while it didn't turn into rubble like some politicians suggested it actually didn't soar like an eagle like others may have hoped for the current exchange rate is actually 56 to 1. Which is a 25 drop in the russian ruble. So on the surface.
It would seem the us won by points in every single round. But it's not that simple and the real question. Here is a question of sensitivity. I guess in boxing terms.
This would be like asking who has the better job who can take more punches. So how much punches can the russian economy take before putin starts to feel the pressure versus how much downturn. The us government can't afford politically well in that category. Putin. Is the clear winner by definition. The lack of democracy freedom of speech. Lack of freedom of press lack of any due process. Any sort of real elections not to mention the fact that all political opposition in russia is actually in.
Prison all that unfortunately allows putin a much bigger buffer to absorb the us and europe's punches definitely compared to the us where the current administration is already taking a lot of heat due to inflation gas prices cost of living you see the crazy part is that for the us to win this economic warfare. It literally needs to knock out russia. Which is essentially a complete collapse of the russian economy. That is what it takes for putin to get rattled.
So as long as russia keeps standing no matter how much it got beat up it simply cannot lose since putin. Clearly gives zero percent regard about the well being of his own people and zero pressure to change that in the foreseeable future in fact. It seems that the sanction gets put in have strangely hurt the countries that impose them in the first place just as much as they hurt russia maybe. Even more before the war with ukraine.
Russia. Sold about 4 million barrels a day of crude oil to europe. Which is about 50 of its daily. Output but with the war and the eu sanctions that number dropped to 25.
Million barrels that's a 40 drop in european consumption of russian oil. But here's the crazy part the russia is exporting fewer bears of oil to europe the shortage is creating a price increase in europe in january. This year a barrel of crude was 60 bucks. We're now at a hundred dollars per barrel.
And we even kissed 120 per barrel just for a minute there so what happens when russia still pushes 8 million barrels a day. But the price jumped by 70. You guessed it right more revenues for russia and more expensive energy for europe in the us now. According to bloomberg russian oil revenues are up 50 since the start of the sanctions.
That is just crazy to consider now to be honest some of this is purely self inflicted by the us. Who declared war on its own oil industry. Which might have not been the smartest move in hindsight. Just ask angela merkel.
What happens when you lose energy independence. And while the us can still fight back by working with instead of against its oil industry thereby unleashing. The american or industry into the markets. It seems that for now.
The policy is to keep existing policies and beg for more oil from opec until that changes. The deck is going to be stacked against the us. And that is without considering the doomsday scenario here if russia cuts gas supplies to germany for example. Germany's gdp would fall by five percent this year.
Alone that would be equivalent of a knockout to germany right there and then so no we're not winning the economic war now. While putin seems to be safely holding on to power in russia. Things in the west are much more shaky with less than four months until november's midterm elections in the us things have really worsened for this administration. You see. According to morning console. Political intelligence survey. Which was actually conducted just in this quarter. Voters in 44 states.
Actually disapprove of this administration's performance. Boris johnson already lost his job in the uk and things are not looking. So. Good for the french and italian leaders as well and look the last thing i want to do here is to be freaking russian apologist russia.
Was not well prepared for this it was not prepared for the sanctions. Ask ordinary. Russians. How their daily life has gone to the toilet since this thing started.
Putin thought. Ukraine would be a walk in the park and he got exposed hard. However will literally bail them out by making this search and energy prices worse by adding oil sanctions on top of a geopolitical. Mess and that is absolutely with firing our own oil industry in the us without unleashing it to counter the effects that is our fault.
But the craziest part there are no winners here there are no winners in any war including an economic attrition war like this they're only losers. According to a recent report from the economist intelligence unit. This war is going to cost all parties involved a combined of one trillion dollars by the end of this year that includes europe us obviously russia and ukraine italy germany france now just think what the world could have done with one trillion extra dollars healthcare infrastructure education research and development my goodness now look i know there's going to be a lot of people in the comments. Saying well tom.
This is another proof that we're getting beat up by china. That is absolutely not correct. If you want to watch a video in which i explain why china is in deep trouble in fact. They are collapsing click right.
Here. There's going to be a video about china exposing all the truth. But the true china economy. Not the ones you hear in mentioned media about and also if you haven't yet subscribe right here for the channel.
See you in the next video.
What do you think about BRICS Tom?
The RF initiated an agressive invasion of a soverign nation. The economic war being waged against Russia will end in the downfall of Putin and the collapse of the RF… as it should be !!!
Europe will lose since it sold (gave?) its energy future into Putin’s hands. Germany definitely did. The US has plenty of energy, regardless of what happens in Europe. Europe does not. It will sell out Ukraine in the end. And Estonia. And Latvia. And Moldova… And Putin will be standing at the end, since India, China and the Saudis will help him stand up to the US and buy his energy and grain. And he has plenty of oil and gas. Most likely the standoff will screw everybody.
us real inflation is not 9%. it's at least double. around 15-18% if not more.
woke power. let's go brandon.
We love your fresh insight into the financial market. Let's collab. Stonk Tech is a social media platform start-up and our app will be launching soon. Help us promote! Check ur email for more detail(might fall into junkbox)
Western leaders must speak with governors from russian oil and natural gas regions directly, without Kremlin and Moscow, and fix this energy problem!
The war in Ukraine has been going on for 8 years. Russia cranked it up 6 months ago. Today's young soldiers were young children when the shelling and death started in their neighborhoods.
JB needs to reevaluate and reduce the tariffs on Chinese goods. He needs to just let Russia stew in its own juices.
Russia just cut gas to Germany so looks like the FED will have to pivot
Hello from Russia.
you are making a strange comparison…
your experts say that Russia's GDP is no higher than in the Netherlands.
but just try to at least compare shipbuilding in the world. or other real sectors of the economy , not financial pyramids .
2) there were problems in March. prices have really gone up .
but prices started to fall in April and May.
the dollar exchange rate was 75 rubles, now 55-60 rubles
, it has become more pleasant to order things online.
anyway , nothing has changed . everything is the same as a year ago..
No. The winners are the B.I.G. Corporation's. Losers are the normal people.
This could be argued the other way around too. Pushing renewable energy harder would have solved the issue the same, with the added benefit of not ruining the planet.
It's easy to be smart after the fact, but nobody could have predicted this war in just a year ago, let alone 5-10 years ago.
Also the US government wasn't even that hostile. Trump was definitely pro-oil, and even Obama supported the oil pipelines.
Raytheon on the way to the bank: yes yes, everyone loses in wartime……
1 trillion dollars could have bought the land Russia has claimed twice from Ukraine.
I am surprised you still have followers after tremendous losses. 🤣🤣🤣
First the Russian GDP fall is already recalculated to 6/8% not the 12/15 % initially thought. Still bad but not as dramatic as thought considering is not just the US hitting on Russian economy but a coalition of 30+ countries. Second they are slowly but steadily promoting their payment systems, financial standards etc… Undermining the hegemonic financial status of the US be it the petro Dollar, Swift with the expansion of the MIR payment system and a speedier integration with BRICS countries. Long term cause of this the American international financial status one of the major engines of the US economy will be affected undermining future growth and competitiveness against China American major economic competitor. Same is valid for German industry and other major European economies they will inevitable loose competitiveness loosing cheap Russian resources, energy food to Asian firms especially Chinese and Indian that will inevitably become more competitive and fill the gap in the Russian market as for Russia now looses some western machinery yet i bet in 5 years they will have some solid domestic alternatives plus alternatives from reliable partners like India+China. Same thing happened in 2014 with food contra sanctions by Russia that helped develop the Russian agricultural giant is today. Doing the same mistake again and again hoping a different outcome is utterly m*rronic… As for Russia not preparing like the host says I doubt that. If Russia didn't prepare for the unprecedented sanction war we see today would've already collapsed a few months ago….
Dead of with this video. As well as with the last ones. Really appreciate your work.
Also, I have found Peter Zeihan who talks about geopolitical and some long time problems. I would be interested in your thoughts on this topic. Probably wouldn't be as short as the other ones but either that or you'll find a way to make it short. 😉 Thanks a lot 👍
There will be no helper for Putin
I have a great idea. Let’s slap each other so we both feel it.
Russia lost McDonalds but have the ability to feed it's people and keep them warm.
Winters coming.
Lets be honest tom the whole world is collapsing and its all because boneheaded idiots at the top who are also corrupt AF.
tom i must tell you, i love the suit, i don't care, but i love it, it fits your brain wich is HUGE|
I cannot follow you my guy. If before 75 RUB = 1 USD and now 56 RUB = 1 USD then the ruble gained not lost 25% wuts going on
I totally agree with you.
No Russia can lose. Just not in 1-2 years. Will take longer than that.
Myth: sanctions hurt the sanctioned party
Reality: the brunt of the hurt is shouldered by the sanctioner and slightly the the sanctioned
Ukraine has become Syria 2.0
The thing is that this is an existential crisis for Western Democratic Capitalism. If the US/Europe loose in Ukraine, then the Baltic states, Finland & Taiwan/South China Sea are next. And possibly Korea. That is World War 3 and any "economic pain" and "loss" that is currently (or in the next 2 years) felt will seem like an utter joke.
But I'm just some random guy on the internet who used to be a diplomat, what do I know…
Thank you for taking the time to evaluate the current market based upon global issues. One affects the other without question. It will be terrific when the world gets along and countries quit trying to take over other countries! At that point, true world betterment will continue! IMO!
I love this structured and informative format. Great mix up of styles.
Man at this point inflation keeps getting worse we're both losing
Stock Moe and wife are the biggest menopause jokers ever. He even tried to start a podcast with the clueless wife. But gotta give it to Stonk Moe for his hardworking ethnics behind deleting negative comments 😂
Highly suspicious Stock Moe has tons of fake followers too. His viewer count is consistently WAY BELOW 5% mark.
It’s hard to see if a new administration in the US would be pro Russian. If anything, they’d just unleash the US oil potential
Great video Tom. Great structure, concise, rich. Keep it up bro!