Hey guys, it's Sasha the UK Chancellor Jeremy hun just presented the Autumn statement biggest ever cut to National Insurance for workers said Rishi Sunak Jeremy Hunt hands 27 million Brits a450 Christmas present shouts The Daily Mail The unfortunate truth is that this Autumn statement is destroying the UK economy instead of helping it and it is full of lies. And because I am not a lying scumback politician I am going to go through the numbers and use data to show why the Autumn statement is extr extremely dangerous for the UK economy and I'll expose the specific lies that Jeremy Hunt said just a few minutes ago as I'm recording this video first, the chancellor congratulated himself on harving inflation. When the Prime Minister and I took office, inflation was 11.1% Last week it fell to 4.6% We promised to have inflation and we have Haled it. But here's a massive problem.

The reason UK inflation has Haled has absolutely nothing to do with the UK government or the Bank of England or any of their policies. Here is the chart for overall rate of inflation in the UK And here is how much of that inflation came only from electricity, gas and fuels Because after Russia invaded Ukraine the cost of those things went up, oil went through the roof, gas prices increased by 300% and now those prices have come back down and the price to Consumers is slowly coming down too. For some weird reason, consumer prices increased immediately when commodity prices CAU up. But commodity prices fell back down a year ago and the retail prices still for some weird reason haven't caught up.

I Guess the reason is nothing to do with the energy companies being run by greedy. Anyway, Global Prices on energy have come back down. literally. not in any way affected by anything that the UK government has done.

And so here is the chart of the UK Inflation: That's Cpih excluding energy in January Inflation minus energy was at 6.2% when Rishi Sunak promised to have it. Today Inflation minus energy is at 5.6% So inflation in the UK has gone exactly nowhere if you exclude the explosion in gas and oil prices. But here is what's happening with the mortgage crisis. The Orange Line is the owner occupier cost as part of the inflation as the amount that that line contributes to the total amount of inflation.

This is the cost of people paying their mortgages and you can see how is creeping up and creeping up and accelerating in January Owner occupied cost contributed 10% of the inflation total excluding energy. in October, it contributed 15% of the total and in October owner occupy cost. Inflation increased from 5% year onye to 5.4% which means it is going up. It is going up at a rate that is faster every single month and it is now higher than the average rate of inflation.

So from now on as the mortgage crisis gets worse over the next 18 months, this will pull the overall inflation number up every single month and you know what else is going up. The US Stock Market up 19% so far this year. If you want to invest in US Stocks you can do that with Weeble who are the sponsors of today's video One feature that says Weeble Aside from all the other investing apps in the UK is their data and charts. If you are a data nerd like me, you might appreciate having access to everything you need.

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but the UK is now in the middle of a wage price spiral. Because of the crazy level of inflation, employers have been forced to start increasing salaries at the fastest rate in recorded history. You can see how the average wages have started to accelerate recently on this chart, and here is the chart of the Year on-year increases and you can see that the total pay to September 2023 is up 7.9% year on-ear And this is a massive problem. You see: I don't have an election to win next year.

So I don't need to try and appease voters by pretending that wages growing ridiculously fast ahead of inflation is a good thing. Because it isn't. As wages grow, the companies that pay those wages have to increase their prices. As the companies increase prices, inflation gets worse and workers demand even more pay increases.

And this Vicious Circle can be incredibly difficult to get out of once it starts going. Ask Argentina Ask Venezuela Ask a whole load of other people. And here are some of the announcements in this a statement: Universal Credit is going up by 6.7% next year ahead of the rate of inflation. As it stands right now, State Pension is going up 88.5% way ahead of inflation and ahead of wages.

Talking of wages, we already saw the wages are going up at a record Pace but Jeremy Hunt prefers to put out fires by pouring out a giant Jerry can of gasoline onto the fire. So the UK National living wage is going up by 99.8% Next year For those 21 and older, this will be on top of the current wage increases we are already seeing. For 18 to 20 year olds, the national living wage is going up by 14.8% and for 16 to 17 year olds and apprentices is going up by 21.2% And I do understand that people are finding hard to make ends meet right now, but this is not the way to solve the problem. This is only making the problem worse much, much much worse.

Services Inflation is sticky because of the wage price spiral already and this is going to make it a whole lot worse. But Jeremy Hunt Thought that he would throw in a big surprise. he went and abolished the Class 2 national insurance payments the self-employed people pay. He also reduced Class 4 national insurance payments from 9 to 8% and then he pulled the biggest election year Stunt by reducing the regular national insurance rate from 12% down to 10% This way people will take home more of their salary and it sounds great, right? But here is the math.

After the big pay increases in recent months, the average salary in UK according to the Office of National Statistics is almost exactly 35,000 A salary of 35,000 would pay 2,700 in National Insurance Under the old rate, this 2% cut in National Insurance means that a person on the average salary will now take home about 450 more than they did before the change. By the way, the 2% cut in National Insurance starts in January, not in April So the effect of this is going to come a lot sooner in a few weeks sooner than all the others. 450 more in take-home pay is equivalent to getting a 1.6% wage increase. And yet there is a counterargument here because the UK government has frozen the income tax brackets since March 2021, and at the moment, they are meant to continue being frozen until April 2028 because of the rate of inflation over the last two years.

The reality is that a freezing tax brackets is really a tax increase because as salaries are forced to increase by the wage inflation spiral just so that the people can keep paying their bills just so that you can buy the same things that now cost 10% or whatever more than they did last year, they will have to pay a higher percentage in tax as your salaries increase. If the brackets are frozen, your tax will increase as a percentage of your salary. So the National Insurance Cod gives some of that stealth tax back. But remember that wages are already going up at 8% a year.

and we've just heard that pensions and benefits will also go up ahead of inflation. and then the national living wage is going up by way more than inflation. A record amount in January The UK government is busy congratulating themselves because they have defeated inflation. You need to give them a slow Round of Applause for that.

But here is the data from the Office of Budget Responsibility. The inflation forecast for 2024 has increased dramatically compared to the March forecast. I Mean it's weird how this Army of analysts working in the Office Office of Budget Responsibility and the Treasury and everyone in government couldn't see this coming. This is a surprise.

Let's increase all our forecast for inflation when some random guy on YouTube has been warning about this for the last year. But this new forecast is still nowhere near to what is actually going to happen. The new forecast says inflation will magically fall to 2.8% next year and then down to 1.5% by the end of 2025, unless something extremely drastic happens that is going to be Nion impossible. There is absolutely no data that supports this other than a hefty dose of hopium.

These numbers are coming straight out of Jeremy Hunt's ass. But let's keep looking at the OB forecast. Here is the GDP one and this chart is so misleading. You could not make it up because look, the blue line is higher than the yellow line.

So that means that this new forecast is an improvement, right? It means GDP is going to be higher Jeremy Hunt Even ref referenced this specific chart and this data and said that it shows The Obr has changed its mind and now thinks the economy is going to do better. The Office for Budget Responsibility say that the combined impact of these measures will raise business investment, get more people into work, reduce inflation next year, and increase GDP. So Jeremy Hun says the Oban now thinks the economy will be doing better than in the March forecast and this is a lie. This is is not a matter of interpretation.

it is not an independ sort of statement. This is an outright lie from a government minister. in Parliament it is shocking, but you won't have anyone in the mass media pick up on this because it involves doing numbers on the 1st of September. The Office of National Statistics changed how GDP is being calculated in the Blue Book 2023.

Update: This change magically made GDP growth in 2021, in 2022, and in 2023 a lot better, but in a completely believable and not at all completely disingenuous way. Did not affect any of the previous years at all. So let's look at this latest chart. from the OB.

You can see that the blue line for the November forecast is a lot higher than the yellow line in 2021 and in 2022 and in 2023. And it's higher because of a change in the methodology. This is only because they changed the way that they're calculating it between the March forecast and the November forecast. But here is the problem: Let's ignore the past years.

let's ignore the stuff that has already happened. Let's look at the yellow line. Let's take that yellow line from the March forecast and just apply it to the end of this new GDP revision for the data that has already happened starting from the middle of 2023. As per this chart, this is roughly what the forecast was in March If you use this new definition of GDP now, it's not perfect because those changes should technically be recalculated on a relative basis blah blah blah.

But it's pretty close. So the old forecast is this new pink line. The new forecast is the Blue Line. The fact is, the Obr has not revised anything upwards.

They have revised GDP growth down by a lot. And here is another killer chart. The Office of Budget Responsibility seems surprised at how fast wages are growing. I Mean, who could have seen that one coming? I It was obvious it was really obvious way before March.

But look at how much higher the blue line is on this chart than the yellow line. But this is again, massively undercooking the problem. The Q3 figure for nominal earnings is forecast at 7.3% Q3 This year, the latest available data to September 2023, which is the end of Q3 is at 7.7% Phenomenal earnings. I Mean seriously, which blind mentally challenged monkey made this forecast? The data for Q3 is already available and this is the November forecast and you still managed to get it It Wrong by 0.4% We already know that next year the national living wage is going up by a huge amount.

We already know that there is an inflation wage spiral, we know that housing costs are exploding and this will force wages higher next year, and we know that pensions are going up by 8.2% But the OB says that by the end of next year, wage growth will be at 3.7% year on year, and by the end of 2025, it'll just be down to 1.8% And I appreciate that the UK government must really struggle to attract anyone with more than half of a functioning brain cell to come and work for them. But these forecasts are complete horseshit. This is inexcusable. This is worse than manipulating data this is making up as you go.

The UK is in a very serious financial situation. This is a problem that needs addressing. The inflation problem is nowhere near over, but it's election year. so of course, instead of doing anything to actually fix these things, the UK government is busy lying and making up.

This is atrocious. But does anybody care? No. For some reason, there aren't any protest about the government up The economy, making the lives of million people a misery. There are far more interesting things to protest about instead.

Uh, in some other part of the world, the level of incompetence should carry a prison sentence, But I guess we'll just wait until people stop being able to pay their mortgages, wait for this to get a whole lot worse, and pretend that everything is absolutely fine and perfectly okay. In meantime.