Talking about Boxable I'm not the biggest bull and I want to just be very, very careful with what I say because some of the things I say are potentially based on outdated information. Maybe I'm being too bearish, but let me be very clear. this idea that you can build a fifty thousand dollar Casita Great. Maybe before the pandemic and that was done, but the fifty thousand dollar Casita And this is something that bothers me as somebody who used to be a licensed contractor operated a licensed contracting business passed the licensed Contracting test.

I I've gone through real estate investing for uh, well over a decade and and I deal with this sort of stuff. What's remarkable almost 13 years in real estate is crazy. What's remarkable about the Boxable Casita is that you have to remember: the fifty thousand dollar Casita Pre-inflation days does not include a roof. It doesn't include cladding on the outside of the building which would be like your stucco or siding.

It does not include the foundation. It does not include the plumbing or electrical lines to get you there. It does not include the permits or the architecture fees to get you there. It doesn't include all of those things.

What you're getting is a box for fifty thousand dollars pre-inflation That's probably now a seventy thousand dollar box post inflation and you're getting limited customizability obviously. and that makes sense because you're trying to manufacture these in Mass. However, the massive concern that I have is that most of the sales of Boxable Casitas have been demo units or they have been to the CIA for Guantanamo Bay and Guantanamo Bay. According to a very detailed report from The New York Times I Know a lot of people they put the tinfoil hat on.

They're like I don't like the New York Times I don't trust the word they say. that's fine I don't particularly like the New York Times myself I have the honor of having a a post about me in the New York Times uh actually I think I have two. No one's not that bad though. But anyway, so I have the honor of being in the New York Times so I okay I get to bag on them too.

But the point is, they have a very and you can just search this yourself. Boxable Casita Guantanamo Bay Okay, yeah, that's where you go like waterboard and torture Terrace okay, uh, unofficially officially. Anyway, uh, apparently the CIA ordered 50 150 approximately of these boxable Casitas And because they don't come with a roof, most of them ended up turning into a moldy crap show because you have a massive logistic nightmare of basically okay. here are your 150 units and then it's like, well, great, but the roofer's not available yet and so the time like being able to time to deliver these is a problem, especially in the tropics.

So they cover them with blue tarps and now they're like molding up. Now you can point the finger at Guantanamo. You could point the finger at the process, you could point the finger at boxable I Don't know. But the point is when when Boxable tells us that they have manufactured a hundreds of these boxable Casitas the reality is 150 of them are molding in Guantanamo Bay and most of the other ones are just freaking demo units so the company can raise more money.

So in my opinion, What? What I'm seeing with Boxable is a company that has apparently a manufacturing line number one, which is really just for like five units of a demo unit or whatever. Maybe that's where they somehow came up with the first 150? I'm not sure. Then they have the Vegas facility which which I I would like to be proven wrong on this. So I'd like to tour.

Uh, the boxable uh Vegas facility I don't know if after this video that's invite me I just I want I want to be upfront with people? Okay, but when I I like to give my reasonable criticisms because if anything I want the company to succeed we have a massive housing crisis. Housing is unaffordable, right? And so the idea of a fifty thousand dollar box which is probably now seventy thousand dollars plus Foundation architecture uh, roof and cladding? you're probably at 125 to 150 000 project right? Being real here, the idea of 50k is pretty much clickbait. you're probably at about 150 000 project I'd like to be proven wrong though and again, just just like with Arkimoto I made a warning video after I met with the CEO I'm like you should not be going into bikes. You should not be trying to license out your projects so that other people can manufacture them.

You should take one thing, the Deliverator or whatever you want Mass produce it as soon as possible. But I think once they realize that manufacturing is hard, they shut down, they gave up, and now they're going bankrupt I Give that warning over nine months ago, well before actually, no, it was, it was somewhere around March Now it might have been March yeah, maybe March of 2022 or so when the stock was still worth a whole lot more I posted that warning. but anyway. uh, the point is, those are the similar kind of warnings that I'm seeing with Boxable I'm seeing this warning with boxable that, uh, now they're they're raising more money because manufacturing is hard and they're not actually able to properly manufacture out of their second facility.

So now the idea is. well, we have a lot of reservations. Well, of course you do because it's an underpriced, unrealistic unit. You're not going to sell these things for 50 Grand anyway.

but these reservations help you raise more money from investors. And now because you realize your second facility is already in adequate even though it's new, you want to have a third. Factory This sounds bad. I'm probably one of the only people that's actually bearish unboxable right now.

but I I Maybe I'm too critical. Okay, maybe I'm being too critical. but I'm just saying. I I Understand costs I understand how hard it is to hire people I understand how hard it is.

Uh, and and understand I I Know very little about manufacturing, but I know it's very hard. uh and anytime I Look at companies that are manufacturers I see the pain I Feel the pain I Get it. Manufacturing sucks, especially in an environment of supply chain issues. especially in that sort of environment.

And then the reality is boxable. Got a massive boost because lumber prices were skyrocketing and they don't use. Lumber So everybody's like this is fantastic. You have a lumber alternative.

Well, that was fantastic during the pandemic. But guess what's happening now? Lumber prices have plummeted. It's probably cheaper to build a guest unit or a casita out of lumber than it is out of the Composites that they use right now. So you've got massive issues with boxable manufacturing issues.

the fact that the reality is the 50 000 units probably not fifty thousand dollars anymore. so the original price is Click paid. But beyond that people don't. People who are investing in the boxable in my opinion aren't realizing that you have to get cladding for the outside of the property.

You have to get a roof on the unit, You got to get a foundation, You got to get electrical. You got to get Plumbing You got to get a sewer line. You got the water line. The gas line.

You got to get all these things run to the property. Maybe you don't do gas. Maybe it's just electricity. That's fine, but in some areas gas is actually more affordable unless of course you.

You don't want to go for a gas stove or cooktop because that's unpopular now in certain areas or they're getting banned in some of the liberal areas which there are a lot of people who are frustrated about that. Uh, this this idea that uh, uh, you know, oh, it's it's you know, woke to go for an induction cooktop. uh you know what's in insane and I don't I I Don't know if I have that video posted somewhere but uh I used to I used to have it on my website but it's been a long time. But about uh, 12 years ago I uh I had.

uh, let me see if I can find it about 12 years ago I uh, it might have even been longer ago. About a long time ago I posted a video and it was short. It was like 30 seconds. It was before short videos were a thing before.

Tick Tock was a thing. I posted a video talking about induction cooktops and how phenomenal they are. Oh here it is. July 13th, uh 2013.

this is insane. Uh, it is. Is it public sometimes? Oh yeah, here it is. Okay.

hold on. I'll just show it to you. Uh, okay. You ready for this? This is insane.

This is a long time ago. I Don't even know why I'm showing this. but I'm gonna do it anyway. You ready for this is 42 seconds long.

Look at that posted nine years ago. I Get asked Hey Kevin Why did you buy an electric induction cooktop when you could have had gas? You have the gas line right there. Well here's my answer. The first reason: it's easier to clean.

There are no grates to scrape or clean under. It's flat. Second reason is safety. Been heating this for a couple minutes.

Probably shouldn't eat it anymore. There's no flame. Boom. put my hand right on it.

It's cold. The only thing that heats up is the bottom of the pan. The third reason, it cooks faster. Some say 30 faster than gas.

That way when I need to cook organic corn pasta I can do it faster. That's stupid. Oh my. God so again I don't know where that came from.

Uh but uh. But the point is, uh uh uh. this is like a giant tangent. uh on on induction cooktops.

but uh, big fan. Okay, and this is before the whole like oh, you're woke if you go induction like induction's awesome. You want grates, barbecue outside. induction is phenomenal.

and don't talk to me about conduction like the stupid spirally electric ones. The ones you have in like the Poor Apartments which I grew up in I grew up with a stupid little spiral coils that turn orange and it's the cooktop that's really old because you're poor and you don't have a new one and it sucks and it takes forever to heat up and it's really hot and you burn yourself on it's trash. Not talking about that. Induction's great.

Anyway, off that rant. Um, let's now get back to basketball. So so you have massive problems with Uh Boxable in my opinion. Again, number one, it's the real cost of being done with the project probably exceeds the actual cost of just conventional framing.

The second problem that you have is I don't think the company is capable of properly scaling manufacturing. They show off their manufacturing facility. but I am very nervous that the manufacturing facility they're scaling. uh, or they're they're showing off.

They're already suggesting they're outgrowing. That makes me more nervous. Uh. and then the third thing is uh I think that um, uh, so number one would be uh, the all of the extra costs that go into it.

Number two would be the inability to scale and number three is I think the inflationary costs are going to make the fifty thousand dollar unit seventy thousand. So the base price is gonna be a lot more expensive. So I'm I'm a bear I'm I'm not very very bullish on uh, unboxable so you know I appreciate the question here. Uh, and these are just I hope to be proven wrong.

but because again I do think that we we are in a massive housing crisis and I think we need cheaper housing. We also need uh, cities and and uh states that are willing to support more housing. I was blown away by this. but the LA Times uh actually just exposed Governor Newsom for something I've been talking about for a long time.

long time. I mean ever since this bill passed this Sb9 uh passed. I've been complaining that basically it's impossible to build homes uh through Sb9. in California so Sb9 came out and the suggestion was oh, we're gonna let people turn garages into guest units or build guest units in their backyards and the city has to approve that within 60 days I Spent two years going through the approval on process on two properties and it was hell.

it was hell to get approval and I still didn't get approval on one of them because they said oh well we just decided it's in a fire zone and we don't want you to build there and it's like after two years you tell me that y'all are I mean that is is California right? But look at that Sb9 and this was supposed to actually be a Big Boon to companies like Boxable because people could then get approval and then go build a unit in a single family home and throw a boxable down. This is actually more bad news: Sb9 was introduced two years ago. This was while I was running against Gavin Newsom for governor and uh, he's over at the Google campus bragging about how he's passing this new housing bill. But then again, Governor Newsom's a total fraud and a failure at doing anything with balls in the state of California because he wants to run for president and he doesn't want to rock the boat fine.

But here's the LA Times who's basically the mouthpiece for Gavin Newsom bagging on him saying the bill he passed so far is failing. Uh. and so the bill received bipartisan support to add housing, whatever, Whatever. whatever.

Neither argument for adding housing has been proven so far. Across 13 cities studied in the state, Sb9 projects are limited to non-existent according to: UC Berkeley Hey, I got into Berkeley I didn't end up going to Berkeley I went to UC CLA instead. But anyway, the report focused on cities considered high opportunity areas for duplexes because they've reported significant increases in the construction of Adus known as granny Flats Casitas or Adus in recent years Adu small freestanding homes, whatever, whatever. the cities are listed right here.

Okay, great. San Diego Anaheim so on and so forth. By the end of November, cities had collectively received 282 applications for Sb9 projects had approved only 53. dude, I'm one of the people getting screwed by this.

Los Angeles accounted for the bulk of applications receiving 211 and only proof 38. What a fraud these cities are. What a freaking fraud. You have this.

and I mean we should know this about California already. but you have the Governor who's like we are going to allow people to build guest units so people spend tens of thousands of dollars with Architects to to do what the state law says. And what is the the city government say? Yeah, we'll sit on these because we're the city of Los Angeles and we're a real fraud. Oh my.

God California's governments suck. Applications for divided Lots seem even less popular. Just 100 applications were submitted, only 28 had been approved. Uh, Sb9 is only in its first year of implementation.

We should give it more time to judge if it's effective. No. David Garcia Why don't you spend two years and fifty thousand dollars on paperwork trying to get two projects turned into Sb9 projects yourself and then tell me if we should give it time. It's ineffective because the cities don't give a and you're an idiot who obviously doesn't realize it.

Sorry, I'm upset because I'm trying to provide more housing in the state of California and it's basically impossible. And when the LA Times and a study from Berkeley both very liberal institutions are reiterating that the government of California is an abject failure, you know it's probably worse than it even is being talked about. So so to Circle back into boxable California was supposed to be one of the markets where it was easy to plop a casita down in a boxable den. That's why they're manufacturing them in Vegas because it's right next to California which are supposed to be a big old market for building Casitas easily.

Yeah, there goes that idea out the window. So if you need a fourth reason why I'm nervous about boxable, it's because California is a fraud. But then again, here I am still living in California and and complaining about it. The good news is I've learned my lesson and the lesson I learned is don't build guest units in California instead buy single family homes and basically over the long term watch them go up in value because the government is too stupid to add more housing or housing availability.

So if you want to get rich in California just buy real estate. And yeah, you've got a nice little market dip over here because mortgage rates skyrocketed thanks to the Fed. That's the macro cycle. But in the long term, California is probably a great place to buy housing because the government is moronic and that's not good for boxable.

So how's that for a rant about housing for you? move to Texas. You know. Actually yeah, if you move to Texas you could basically just buy some two by fours and start building. Obviously a little exaggerated, but uh, yeah, but buy a tough shed and drywall it into a mini home.

You know if the problem with that okay and then fairness to California The problem with that is you are in an earthquake zone and you do need to build things according to standard. Okay, what credit score should I have before buying a single family house for yourself? Who cares? Just get a good deal and buy when the market is right I Think the Market's going to be right later this year. Obviously the higher credit score you have, the lower the pricing is. But if you get a good deal, who cares? Man, once you fix your credit, you can.

You can, uh, hopefully be in a position to refinance to a lower rate. But I think if you get a great property, uh, you know what a great deal, you can increase your net worth. It doesn't matter if your credit's 620 or 740, you know 740 is obviously ideal. but I wouldn't you know? Wait to be perfect to buy? Kevin Closing on a house in three weeks Should I lock my rate before? Okay, well, I mean that's just pure speculation, right? Uh, I mean at this point I Think markets are positioning in a bearish mood.

If we get a Miss on the CPI you could actually, in my opinion see a substantial plummet in rates. Uh, you know. Here's the thing though, and this is evil. Okay, You want you know? this is.

this is why you watch my channel. Sorry to the lenders who are going to hear this. but uh, here's the the move. The move is you lock your rate and then if rates go higher, your rates locked.

You're good. If rates plummet. After you locked your rate, you call a different lender. Okay, that's it's.

really mean, but that's one way you can doublehead yourself. Sorry. Okay, listen, that's why people sign up for programs on building their wealth. Link down below because Kevin's got a whole ton of ideas that nobody talks about on the Internet that you get a nice list and the real Estate Investing course and do yourself Property Management course and the Stocks and Psychology of Money course I'm chock full of ideas like that.

Anyway, Okay.