Hey guys, it's Sasha This morning, Tesla Stock has broken through the 250 barrier of seven percent as I'm recording this video last night. Mary Barrow The General Motor CEO announced that GM will follow Ford in using Tesla's proprietary supercharged Network because they don't have their own and because all the Alternatives like Electrify America suck donkey poop talking your donkeys. Does anyone who's good at numbers know if 250 dollars happens to be close to the 60 mark? Because back in December and January just five months ago, five months ago, a bunch of clouds were explicitly recommending that people sell their Tesla stock as is heading down at a hundred dollars just over a hundred dollars and wait until it hits sixty dollars to re-buy Do you buy? No wait for the bottoming process for prices to go up. You need a lot of buyers.

Where are the buyers You tell me? uh, the stock can very well drop another 40 percent. This is a bear market, so I'm sitting here wondering is it time to buy back in? Yet if anyone is good with numbers, please let me know in the comments. Now, the recent rally in Tesla stock is making a lot of people very upset. People are saying it's crazy.

It's insane because it went from 150 in late April to 250 a week into June. But if you look at the chart for Tesla share price, this upward trajectory is no more extreme and weird than the Panic driven sell-off all the way through last year. I Guess if a stock loses value for reasons that don't have anything to do with their fundamentals with their execution, and at some point that stock might get a bounce back. Wow, Who knew, right? Well, now that I ask this question most people did know, but not the Wall Street analyst.

It seems because news just broke that Dan Ives the Wall Street investor who likes to talk about the latest trendy stock on CNBC whatever is the flavor of the week has just increased his price Target from 2 115 dollars to three hundred dollars. and Wed Bush the company that actually manages money for People has retained an outperformed rating because you see just up until that point, they were having an outperform rating on a stock that was valued at more than what their Target price for it was. Makes a lot of sense because you see Wall Street Analysts have absolutely no idea what the it is that they are doing when it comes to stock valuations. If the stock Goes Down the Wall Street analysts all go and reduce their valuations.

If the stock goes down by 50, by 80, all of their valuations magically reduced by the same amount, the stock goes back up and the valuations jump right back up. was for no particular reason whatsoever. It's weird that these people are actually allowed to manage money on behalf of their clients and make financial decisions that are based on whether the stock market happens to be waking up in a good mood this morning or not the stock goes up. An analysts trip over each other to revise the value.

Absolutely nothing has changed, including in any of the reasons they give for revising their price. Target Back in 2021 when Tesla was hitting its all-time highs over twelve hundred dollars before the three to one split. So if 400, plus at current prices that eyes had a price target of fourteen hundred dollars, that's 467 dollars after the stock split. But then the share price began falling and by the time it hit a hundred dollars back in December 2022 Dan Ives The same guy dropped his Target to 175 dollars.

so his valuation fell by two-thirds in a span of one year. And maybe maybe there were reasons for it. Maybe this is because you know he revised some of the assumptions in the model he changed and adjusted the demand down. Maybe extra competition? the prices were advised down or whatever.

Maybe there was a quantitative element to it, right? But then just a few months later and the share price for Tesla goes up out of nowhere. Nobody expected it in the first half of the here. it goes through the roof. so his price Target almost doubles overnight out of nowhere to 300 because Dan is like pretty much every Wall Street analyst pulls numbers out of his ass and bases them on sentiment.

bases them on whether Elon Musk tweeted something controversial that week. instead of basing them on numbers or cold hard facts. maybe Dan was surprised that last night, you know. General Motors announced that they will be switching to using Tesla's charging standard, they're gonna be installing the Tesla ports in their cars.

And remember a few days ago Ford announced the same thing oh my. God Who could have seen this coming? This is groundbreaking I Guess that would be Mighty Surprising if you were a completely analyst and don't do any homework now. I am just a random guy on YouTube But check this out! My model has had external use of the supercharger network based into it for years now, and you can see that I expected this to start in 2025 as a rough average estimate before this latest round of announcements. In fact, that was there for many, many quarters now.

and wouldn't you know it? GM and Ford are both going to start installing the Tesla charging port in their cars in 2025. WoW Who could possibly have seen this one coming? let's go and double the price. Target By the way, I Make these models available to my Patreon members at T level. so if you're interested if you want to go and check out what all the different assumptions are for your own whatever reasons.

Please Subscribe The link is in the description. You also get to join the Discord the member only videos a whole lot more if you don't want the models, but you want to join the Discord the community chat in there. you can join us in espresso member. it's just five dollars a month and I personally am always in the Discord Literally people say that this is unusual.

Apparently most other creators are not doing this, but I'm in there chatting all day so if you want to join the conversation I will see you in there. Now here is what is actually interesting. The supercharger announcement makes approximately all Point Nothing difference to the valuation. So when all of these analyst clowns come out and say that that is why they are revising the price tag is feel free to ask them exactly how much money they think this is going to generate for Tesla When now my assumptions might be on the a conservative front.

I'm expecting GM and Ford and the rest to be very slow at growing EV production. So the majority of the supercharger profits in my model come from Tesla cars using them, but the total revenue across the whole use of superchargers in 2032 in my model comes in at 11 billion dollars, netting 8.8 billion dollars in gross profit. You'll notice I have an 80 gross margin here because this excludes the base cost of electricity because that's just money in Money Straight back out. it doesn't really affect the calculations, it doesn't really help me make them more accurate.

So the actual revenues in real terms would be higher, but So would be the cost. Now this is not Material In the overall valuation, 11 billion dollars is not a big number, even if I assume that all the other manufacturers are making tons of EVS way more quickly and in 10 years they're making tons of them so that pretty much all the cars reviews. that's probably going to happen. But I don't know how fast these other guys are going to move and let's say they all used or superchargers.

if I go and double this number, it's still not very big and it still doesn't really move the needle. So while yesterday's announcement is pretty exciting, I am not actually that excited by the fact that Chevy and Ford are going to go and use Tesla Superchargers. Now, what I am excited by is how they're going to use those superchargers. According to Elon in recent tweets, the experience and use of the superchargers for owners of other cars will be identical.

an equal priority for Tesla owners and for them. owners of the other cars and a lot of Tesla investors are angry about this. They're pissed off because they think that this means that there will be massive cues at superchargers. Spoiler alert: The three and a half electric Hummers that GM made last year won't take up that many stores.

maybe two because they're so fat, but not that many. But here is where I am getting really excited because this announcement is a giant off. Trojan Horse If a Chevy pulls up to a supercharger, it needs to have the same seamless experience as a Tesla so it's not taking up time so that it's not frustrating so the charging can be faster than slow That Chevy will need some of the Tesla software to make that happen so the car can speak to the supercharger at the moment. In countries like the UK, there has been a trial when non-tesla cars have been able to use Tesla Superchargers, but you have to go and download the Tesla app and you have to manage the whole thing through that now.

Tesla Cars can communicate with the supercharger directly to select the optimal charging rate, the optimal power based on a load of factors. The other cars at the moment cannot do that. Which means that even if they can use the superchargers, the experience is extremely surpassed. Presumably, these other cars will want to have the same thing to make sure that they can charge quickly instead of charging a snail speed just in case your car decides to go up on fire.

So there will be some kind of an integration and Tesla will be working with these other manufacturers on building that in. They have a lot of time and you can see that in my model, the revenues from Full self-driving are a heck of a lot more interesting than the ones from superchargers these numbers are based on FSD starting to be licensed by third-party car manufacturers at the end of 2026. That's just my personal guess with very low volumes for the first few years, but going up to 2 million cars per year of external subscriptions in 2032. Now, if Tesla is going to be integrating the software with Ford and GM and whoever else wants it I Heard Volkswagen is really angry their CEO is massively pissed off at the fact that his electric cars have really software.

If only there was a solution. Now the best self-driving Tech that these companies currently have is a car driving in a straight line along a highway in perfect weather conditions on pre-mapped routes only. This is approximately the same level of confidence that my very much non-electric and non-fancy Jeep can do with just adaptive cruise control without having 27 different lighter sensors on the roof. So just like what happened with the Chargers will eventually happen with FSD We will have these announcements that this company has licensed FSD this other companies license FSD because they all have no choice and I'm sure everybody is going to be Mighty surprised the Wall Street analysts will be fainting from excitement.

Oh my. God Nobody could have seen this one coming. but if Tesla gets to a good enough version sooner than in five years time or whatever that assumption could turn out to be very conservative, an FSD sales could accelerate way sooner than in 2027, and it could go into a heck of a lot more cars too. Now as it stands, looking at the software, this could well become the windows of electric cars.

It is possible because nobody else is even remotely close. That's not what I'm making into my assumptions at the moment. I'm not quite that Ultra bullish or whatever, but um, it's possible. And if those cars are already equipped with the Trojan horse that is there to facilitate the charging infrastructure, in some degree, if it's already equipped the Trojan Horse of them working together with Tesla on building out some of that hardware and software combination, the transition to FSD could be a heck of a lot smoother and a lot faster than many people expect, because once FSD is good enough to drive without needing any kind of intervention in the vast majority of cases, it will become immediately necessary to have it in the car if you actually want to sell that car.

Whenever that happens, the impact is going to be very sudden and very fast, going to be orders of magnitude bigger than the AI craze that is sweeping everything since Chad GPT arrived on the scene. It's interesting that at the moment there is this new rumor about a new Tesla Factory starting every single week. and just the last few days, we've heard new rumors about Spain UK Canada India Indonesia Elon Musk has just been to China where he met with the Chinese government. He's also had a long phone call video call with the Mongolian President.

Hopefully we're going to get some clarity on these new locations sooner rather than later because Tesla really needs to start building these additional factories. The Mexico Factory alone is not going to be enough to hit the sort of targets that they are going for. But as it stands, I personally continue seeing a massive huge upside in Tesla stock. Even at this share price, you can imagine how excited I was back in January.

So I personally will continue buying more of it in the coming months. If you found this video useful, please don't forget to smash the like button for the YouTube algorithm. Thank you so much for watching and I'll see you later. Thank you.