Vehicle Analysis. Holy smokes. Look at what the markets just did and we're only going to look at this from a technical point of view. Technical means lines, fundamentals mean well.

You're going into Financial reports which most people don't do I obviously try to do that every single day in my course member. Live streams sometimes on the channel as well. Though fundamental analysis, it takes a little. It takes a little bit.

You know depth and understanding because there are ways you can get juked with fundamental analysis. We're actually going to be talking about that regarding how you could get juked by investing in a company like Silver Aid Capital, and whether or not you're even interested in investing into a company like that. It's really amazing to see how the fundamentals could really be rigged, even though they're technically legally rigged that way, It's it's remarkable. So that's why using technical analysis in my opinion, it can be phenomenal as well.

because you can get away from you, could sort of escape the trickery that goes into fundamentals and look broadly here at what the market is doing. What I Really enjoy about this downtrend Over here is that obviously the downtrend on the NASDAQ this being the QQQ has broken, we also just tested approximately that 23 retracement line. And what? I Really enjoy here is that we had a very, very strong support level here. Uh, in that we had the same 200-day moving average as the 23 Fibonacci that set up a really strong support level.

And sure enough, look what happened. green Candlestick Yesterday Indices were up across the board, But what's remarkable about the fact that indices were up across the board is that treasury yields had gone as high as 4.08 on Thursday really, setting up for potentially a punishing Friday But what we actually got if I click the right button. There we go we actually got was every index up 1.17 on Dow 1.61 on s p NASDAQ up almost 2 percent. Even the Russell was up volatility index.

Look at that down at 18.4 This is remarkable. The vix is plummeting at the same time, often measured as the fear index. and then over here you see bonds right back to 3.96 Now, still really high. but look at that, an 11.5 basis point decline in the 10-year Now they're some of the Ism numbers that came out were a little less bad than potentially they were feared given that some of the numbers that came out three days ago were a little scary and that's why things started pumping and so we saw a little bit of data support here as well.

But personally, I wouldn't be surprised if from a technical point of view, we are confirming this trend. Now that's fantastic. That doesn't mean we're going to have a very smooth Nike Swoosh style recovery which I regularly talk about that we might you know, we've basically had this long period down. Now what we're looking for is a nice long period to the upside, but it's going to come with volatility and I think on a technical basis, we could probably trade between these Fibonacci lines here and expect that every single month we're going to be hanging our hats on the next report.

So for example, the Catalyst you should already have written down on a Post-It note on your desk or wherever. Obviously that's going to be March 10th. That's your labor report. that's this week.

So March 10th is this week. That's that's going to be pretty important because we're going to look for wage price increases and then obviously what's the actual result of the labor report that is going to be the 10th. Then uh, right after that I think it's Tuesday up, Tuesday On the 14th we'll get our CPI and then the 22nd, we'll have the FED Now, even if we go through those reports and let's say we got reports that said look, things are going to take a little bit longer, we're going to need some more patience. But despite needing a little bit more patience, the trend is that inflation is going away and the market is spending through the recession.

Maybe we won't actually hit a very, very deep dark recession. If anything, we have something shallow. Yes, Staples and retailers get hit. But beyond that, what happens.

Hopefully we end up testing our next retracement line here. now. what would be phenomenal about that is, even if we hit that next line, ideally we we exceed it a little bit. I Would not be surprised if what ends up happening and this is just a prognostication about.

you know, four three, four weeks out is once we cross that 38.2 percent level up here. I Wouldn't be surprised if we potentially then retrace back to it while of course, then we wait for the data releases in April that's going to be 2023. In a nutshell, in my opinion, I Think it's a slow chug up and while we're chugging along on the up, we're going to keep falling back to these levels. especially when we get a double support like we did here where the simple 200-day moving average literally underpinned the 23.6 percent.

Uh, Fibonacci retracement. In my opinion, this is just my opinion in my opinion, for us to actually drop back to this zero percent Phoebe level which was hell okay, this was hell in October back in October Remember the sentiment now. I'm purposefully backing away from sort of what the FED is saying or fundies or things that are going on. I'm talking sentiment and technicals.

Okay, the sentiment in October was we are going to get Paul Volckert Inflation is Not under control. We've been juked too many times. We got juked in the spring, we got juked in the summer. we got juked in the fall and that was basically the Jukes were.

Oh, Inflation's going down. No, it's not. It's going higher. Oh no.

Inflation's going down. Oh no, it's going higher. We had those fears that actually established real opinions that we could potentially face a 1980s Paul Volcker environment. That fear is going away.

And it's my opinion that the more that fear goes away, the more we say no, no, Now we're not going to get Paul Volckert. We are going to deal with inflation that's higher for longer and rates that are higher for longer. But in my opinion, the more Paul Volcker goes away, the more the market goes up. now.

Do I think we can go to all-time new highs? Uh, you know, just because inflation is slowly going away? Absolutely not. It's going to take a while and I It would not make sense for us to be at all time new highs until we really get inflation back to, you know, relatively on the path to two percent. Probably not until my guess end of 2023, maybe early 2024. And there are red flags, right? I Mean look at this.

Look at the what happened with Break Evens yesterday. as soon as Treasury plummeted yesterday. what happened with Break Evens, well, deployment, or the Break even skyrocketed? I Mean look at where we sit right now. We sit on a break-even level well above the October levels that we faced.

The October levels were what aligned with the bottom of the market. October is when the NASDAQ hit the bottom. A lot of stocks hit their bottom around. October Some stocks hit their bottom around.

over here June and July and our break even inflation rate is now at almost 2.8 percent. Now obviously we're a far cry from what we had earlier the year or in the year, but this is this trend is not fantastic. I Will say I'm not happy about this explosion of the Bond markets inflation expectation. The Bond market here is saying dude, this is not going to be rapid disinflation.

This is going to take a lot of time. And there are two trains of thought here. That one train very simple is the longer it takes, the dirtier the recession is going to be the more of an EPS crash you have. And these technicals were those are going to be.

Once we get those bad earnings, those are going to be what push us back to the zero percent fit, maybe even break it lower. And that's entirely possible. But if that is true, it's really saying that the fear in October we had was really earnings or multiples and not Paul Volcker. All right, think about that.

If in October we hit lows in the stock market because we were fearful that oh no, earnings are going to go down. Uh, or you know we were going to get some kind of multiple compression. which obviously we did. You know the first half of the crash is usually your multiple D rating.

That's where you get compression. Think understand multiples like this. Very simply: if you have ten dollars of earnings and your company is selling for 10 times earnings per share, it's a hundred dollar stock, right? 10 times the multiple of 10. 100 If you still have ten dollars of earnings, but your ten dollars turns into five dollars.

Well, that's ten times five. Fifty dollar stock. stock trades down 50. If now your earnings go down another 50 percent.

You know from from ten dollars of earnings and you're down to five times a multiple of five. Boom, Your Stock's worth 25 bucks, right? Those are the two big fears. and so that is sort of this traditional way to look at the stock market that the two fears that drive the stock market down are multiples in earnings. My opinion is that this bottom over here was actually not a bottom set by the fear of multiple earnings compression.

Yes, that helped contribute to this. but I think we actually got pushed to these depths because of the Paul Volcker fear. And if we get if somebody came down Jesus Christ came down right now and said we will not have a Paul Volcker. I Would not personally be surprised if we actually sit on top of the 38.2 level.

In other words, I Think this bottom part of the phoebees over here is your Paul Volcker fear and this part of earnings over here, or this part of the market over here, the upper sort of 62-ish percent I Think that's where your earnings and multiples are. So I think really, the part that stretched us to the bottom was Paul Volcker Fear and as that goes away, it sort of reiterates the Nike Swoosh recovery. That's my opinion now from a technical basis. Hopefully this remains to be correct.

So far it is, we could do something similar over on the Spy I. Actually, don't even have babies drawn on the Spy so let's go draw them together. Uh, so let's try not to make a mess of this. Let's clean this up a little and let's see what we have here.

So we're gonna go with 472 32 on the spy. Oh, I'm messing with, uh, the wrong item here. This is what happens if you have too many. So this is our downtrend.

Let's go ahead and remove that for a moment. There we go. Weeble Let me actually adjust this properly. 472 32 and 346.52 There we go.

Here's our Phoebe. So on the on the S P 500 on the Spy you're actually sitting at a substantially higher level already, right? I I Personally am much more exposed to the NASDAQ style uh stocks than I am. Uh, spy stocks I Think spy stocks actually still have a potential correction ahead of them. much like a video I covered yesterday Where in the report yesterday there was basically talk about this potential 50 correction of the Spy I Don't think it's going to be that brutal, but do I really think that the Spy should be trading at these levels where we're at? Uh, let's see, we're We're sitting already above the 38 uh, 0.2 level and and we've already been breaking above that into more the 61 range.

Personally, not the biggest believer in that personally. I think the Spy has the greatest risk. Now we'll see. Big fan though personally the QQQ So maybe I just pay attention more to this and this is sold down substantially more.

By the way, yesterday in the course member livestream I Have to say we did a uh and I know we're talking ta here, but we did a fundamental on uh Salesforce Wow. Wow, the fundamentals are actually really, really good over on Salesforce I Don't know why that tangent came up, but hey, you never know what you're going to get with Kevin So um, look from from a technical point of view. uh, in my opinion, we could actually have a pretty nice buy the dip opportunity in the next two weeks here and my take is that it wouldn't I think it would be very difficult for and I think we could write this down I can't guarantee we could take this to the bank but I think it's going to be very difficult to break this line. the uh, the approximately 3E 3, 13, 3, 12 line here.

It's going to be very difficult to break 312 on QQQ before the 10th and the 14th. There's there's no way in my opinion like it would be shocking in my opinion to break the 312 on QQQ before, uh, the 10th or 14th because those are huge Catalyst days. Those are huge fear days. And remember, institutions don't buy before reports.

They buy after reports. Because here's the thing. You have to think about it this way: Institutions are very different from retail. You can do whatever the hell you want with your portfolio.

Nobody cares. it's your portfolio. An institution though. If they buy before CPI or before the jobs report and then those reports come in hot and the market.

Falls They're going to get calls from people being like you idiot, why would you buy before the report, why would you do that? I'm taking my money out of your fund. That's that's what you get with institutions. So you know there could be institutional people watching this right now and they're like damn it Kevin you're right now. Or or there's maybe some people who like, no, no, no, I'm a contrarian I do the fine.

Whatever point is. I Believe my opinion, the vast majority of Institutions or Traders or employees at trading firms have to wait until after the reports. That's why I Think we see such volatility after the reports because the institutions basically wake up and they go okay. like they don't really care that they missed the maybe three or four percent that they could have captured before the report.

They care about being part of the trend after the report. Whether that's to the upside or the downside. So uh, personally, I think from a technical point of view, if we were, if, for whatever reason, uh, between Monday and Thursday, we exceeded 312 over here. In my opinion, it's a cell.

Uh, now of course if that report comes in. Uh, really? because I think we're like come, probably come late Thursday I Really? think come late Thursday You don't want to be sitting above this trend line. uh, you want to be below 312 on the NASDAQ come after the report. It's anyone's guess if we get a soft report.

Great. Fantastic. Maybe we get back to the 50 level. Uh, which we haven't been at, we haven't been at the 50 level.

When we last got rejected in August the last guy rejected in August we were still I mean August was was pretty wild. but anyway. uh, very clearly part of that downtrend, right? Anyway, if we can break that or let me put it this way, the only way to really sustain this support in my opinion is very, very positive. Uh.

reports for February Inflation and jobs I Don't know if we're going to get that. I'm very confident that we're going to get 25 BP from the FED. But from a technical point of view, I think the only way we really sustain sitting above 312 is with positive reports here, or at least somewhat benign reports. We just need to make sure we get rid of the Paul Volcker as long as there's no crazy, fearful move.

To the upside: I Think we're relatively safe expecting to to run over this if we get a terrible report. Uh, depending on how bad it is, we'll depend how how closely we retrace I Mean we could end up, you know, with a basic report that's not that fantastic. Wouldn't surprise me to trade sideways sitting right on that 23 6 line. a terrible report that evokes the fears of Paul Volcker.

We're going right back to the Zero Fibbies. So so there's a lot of downside there. I Would almost say there's probably more downside risk than there is upside risk just based on, sort of, uh, the TA spread here. but uh, that's just the nature of the Fibonacci retracements, right? I Mean if you're at 23.6 you only have about 15 percent of a retracement going up to the next level, whereas you've got about 23 percent of the downside.

so you actually have more on the FIB levels skewed to the downside risk. Uh, anyway, so so that's sort of my the way I would be thinking about this: those Catalyst dates are going to be everywhere. Everything this this Market is solely trading off those caddy dates and uh, I I Think after we get these uh, these reports here, uh, as long as they're benign fed goes 25. we remove Paul Volcker.

My opinion: We're gonna start testing and playing with that uh, that 38.2 level and maybe even writing on it. So I'm excited. obviously with Ta. No guarantees, but that's what I'm seeing.

That's what I'm reading uh and uh and aligning with what I'm seeing from the fundamental point of view also makes sense. Doesn't mean you can't be wrong, but that's my take, so hopefully that's useful from a TA point of view. Next up: I Talk Crypto. All right, let it fall.

I Love the deals. Oh, you're terrible says someone here in the comments. uh, someone's talking about snakes in the comments, when do you sleep at night Tangents are good. thank you for that.

Uh, let's see. can you explain what will happen realistically if we get Paul Volcker? Yeah, sure. I mean just basically briefly. it's like it's it's hell, right? So Paul Volcker scenario means the FED has lost control.

There will be utter panic in the markets because that means the Fed has really, really failed. That means they were wrong about transitory inflation. They were wrong about disinflation. They were wrong about the soft Landing the trust in the FED will go away I I I I will I like if we go Paul Volcker I'm taking two years off, man.

I don't even like that it's going to be so shitty. Uh okay. I probably won't take off because I just can't not work. But like you don't, you don't.

You don't want to go there. Uh, I mean you're looking at uh, rates on anchoring, uh, an actual real estate crash? Not this sort of real estate softening that we've had, but like a real real estate crash. Uh, you're you're looking at fear levels. uh, the likes of which we haven't seen probably since the 70s.

uh, and early 80s. The trust in the dollar I I Don't know I mean I think the whole world would would have issues. So I mean the dollar would still probably rise because it'd be the safest of the crappiest you know paper currencies. But uh yeah, yeah, you you don't want to go there.

I mean the the low levels of the stock market that we saw in October would be a joke compared to uh, what would happen with under a real Paul Volcker scenario? you don't even want to, you don't want to think about it. Paul Volcker would not be good for Howton Paul Volcker is not good for anyone.