Hey, this is stallmash and the markets are about to go crazy over the next few months. and in this notebook right here, I got all the answers you need, how to make money off of what's coming next, including a few important shout outs in this little piece of paper which you have to wait till the end of the video to here because this is some juicy stuff right there. Now let's start with the basics and the more important stuff. We just heard that the producer's price index went up by 0.1 in June, which is lighter than expected.

The expectation was 0.2 percent. Yesterday we heard that the CPI, the Consumer Price Index went up only by three percent versus a 3.1 expected. and that's following a four percent CPI just a month ago. So with CPI being lighter than expected, in fact, the lowest we've seen it since March 2021 with PPI actually being lower than expected.

And let me just explain that Ppi is a leading Factor, The producer's price index shows us how much the producers are paying for raw materials for the stuff they sell to us. So if the cost of their materials is coming down, then the prices we will eventually pay for the CPI will also come down. So if the PPI is lighter and the CPI is lighter, that means that the upcoming Cpis will have to be lighter as well. So the S P 500 has not ignored this, obviously.

and now we're seeing that it's almost at 4 500. this is the highest we've seen. the S P 500 cents, February 2022 that's 18 months High Not something that anybody expected to see in 2023. And contrary to what John Powell is saying in his speeches over the past couple weeks about not being done and more interest rate spikes coming.

I Think the Federal Reserve is pretty much done. Maybe one more, but that's gonna be for show. They gotta show that they're trying really hard not to screw things up because they've screwed up so much of the past two years. I Get where that fear is coming from? But scientifically speaking, there's no way that the Federal Reserve can justify an interest rate hike in these circumstances.

The basic rule for interest rates policy is the John Taylor 1992 rule. We need two percent interest to battle three percent inflation. Right now, the Federal rate is five percent Five Point Twenty five percent. In this case, how would you justify raise? You're way way above the required interest rate.

Now the Federal Reserve will have no choice. They might act out as if they're raising. They might pause for longer than they need to just to show us that they're careful about it. And I get it again.

they screwed up so much transitory. You know we can make the jokes all day, but they will have no choice Because look at what's coming ahead. Ignore the tail rule, look at what's coming in good. and Energy prices.

The backbone of CPI of the Consumer Price Index are currently at 75 dollars a barrel. That's Crude. Now that's down 18 a year and we're talking about the peak of prices that crude is going to have this year. Every year, the cyclicality in the prices of crude oil.

It peaks in the summer and it drops in the winter with a little spike in Christmas for travel and then it stays flat all the way until Autumn. So from this summer end in about a month all the way until April Crude is only going to go down from 75. So there's no way that this 75 dollar barrel with a war in Europe goes up in the winter unless something crazy happens. of course.

What about shelter? Shelter went up eight percent this year as far as the CPI the largest component, but shelter is extremely seasonal. It went up 0.6 in the previous month of May point Four percent this month because people move in summer, people with kids and family. They move when there's no school, they move in June July and August nobody moves in September or October November or any other month unless they absolutely have no choice. People with kids do not move, not in the summer and the prices of shelter will have to come down.

That eight percent is fake because it's cyclical because it's seasonal. Once this summer is over, prices will drop. So with shelter and energy dropping because of seasonality, after the you know the next few weeks, probably a month, how will you justify a raise in the interest rates? Add on top of it. What's going on right now with the air hype and on top of the 4500? S P 500 which is an absolute insanity, we're probably looking at a very hot Market Going forward for the next few months now.

a few stocks will have to correct before the next Bull cycle because they've overran their welcome so to speak. You can think about Nvidia and Palantir and Tesla there's others as well, but they will have to correct a little bit before they make the second run. But I think that second run is coming and I do think that we're seeing a very bullish cycle. So how do I play this? And before I do a quick shout out um to a few important Friends of the channel: Lucid Catastrophic delivery numbers.

It made 2 000 cars in the Q2 and sold 1400 cars. Um, you can sell 40 of your cars and it's not even ramp up yet. and Nikola losing coverage. 85 down A dollar A dollar Fifty a dollar 40 a share.

India is backing out of the bricks so the bricks is falling apart. Some really interesting news that nobody could have seen Comment: Nobody saw that lucid. Nicola And the bricks is total trash and now we know. So shout out to all of them Now my plan for the upcoming few weeks, few months and for the upcoming year now: I'm gonna be dollar cost averaging into the good companies which I've researched and I've analyzed and I want to be a part of and I'm going to be dollar cost averaging based on the share price.

As long as the share price stays above my threshold amount, I'm gonna be dollar cost averaging normally when and if a correction is coming for Nikola Tesla Nvidia and all these other companies, then if they drop below my threshold line then I'm going to double down on my dollar cost averaging and I'm going to reduce my basis cost. Very, very simple. This is a system we're teaching on our Patreon Patreon.com Forward slash: Tom Nash We teach your system on how to invest in good companies long term, using a process of discipline, an objective system, no emotions, no gut feelings when I got a gut feeling I Go to the toilet. Actual statistical, objective, scientific way to build non-emotional investing plans for long-term investors.

We currently have 5 000 members in our community. We just crossed 5000 a few days ago. This is such an exciting Milestone and I Want to thank all of you who joined anybody who joins our Patreon. 30-day money-back guarantees no questions asked.

We just launched Tom's Academy. There's literally one last spot in the academy. We would love to have you there. There is a zoom call for the Academy today so if you join today you will participate in that.

We'll teach you how to model, how to build your own the CFS All that good stuff. Thank you so much! I'll see you in the next video.