Hey guys, it's Sasha Six months ago, every degenerate clown on YouTube was telling you that the worst ever Financial collapse was imminent. Hey, this is Tom Nash and history is about to repeat itself. And trust me, it ain't gonna be pretty. We are headed into a significant economic crisis one of epic proportions.

Ray Dalio was telling you that the New World Order is coming, which is as scary as it is opaque and mysterious. so you should 100 panic and sell all of your stocks. Michael Berry The Numbnuts who perfectly predicted all 69 of the last three stock market crashes was busy tweeting that you have to sell all of your stocks before is too late and here we are in June 2023. the S P 500 was up three percent last week, going up 12 in the first five months of the year.

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee who decided interest rates seem to have no idea what they should do at this juncture because they have a meeting next week. Loretta Master President of the Cleveland Fed thinks that rates should go up. Philip Jefferson thinks that the Feds should pause James Bullard The Saint Louis Fed President says that the rate has to go up. Patrick Harker The Philadelphia Fed President wants a pause Neil Kashkari The Minneapolis Fed President wants an increase, but John Williams The New York Fed President thinks that they should pause.

Until recently, the Fed was giving bravado speeches about crushing inflation by continuing the rate hikes, but it seems that in the last few days, even those guys can no longer keep a straight face while letting the verbal diarrhea pour out of their mouth. Jobs data came in at the end of last week showing non-farm payroll going up by 339 000 jobs. At the same time, unemployment ticked up by 0.3 percent, which is the biggest increase in unemployment since April 2020.. Oh my, God that's 0.3 percent is equivalent to 440 000 people and some Wall Street analysts have been doing analysis and said well, 440 000 people entering unemployment is worse than the 339 000 new jobs that were created.

Oh my. God This is so scary because these Wall Street analysts have now been saying that finally, the economy is slowing down because look, the unemployment rate went up now because the payroll numbers are positive. The increase in unemployment does not mean that companies in the US are net actively firing people. That's not where unemployment is coming from.

A lot of nunties on Twitter don't seem to understand basic maths and how unemployment data actually works and base their views of U.S unemployment on their headline news about Google and Facebook and whatever. the good news is, the United States is a lot bigger than Silicon Valley. There are two reasons why unemployment can increase at the same time as the number of jobs increase. The first reason is economically inactive people and the second reason is people entering and exiting the population out of which this number is calculated, people retiring or young people entering the workforce.

In the United States The labor participation rate is 62.6 and that means that 62.6 percent of working age people are currently either employed or actively seeking employment. This data excludes the military, excludes people in prisons, nursing homes. Etc It does include unemployed people who are seeking work, but it does not include people who don't have a job and aren't looking for one. So students who are over 16 without a job will not count in the labor participation rate.

Neither will people who choose to stay at home to look after the kids or people who choose to retire early After the sharp drop because of covert, the labor participation rate has now been steadily climbing back towards a 63 Mark that it was at in 2019. But as the FED first let inflation run right without doing anything about it at all and is now over tightening because they don't understand how basic forecasting works. it is putting a lot of financial pressure on many households. Some people who were not working before are now entering the workforce.

hence why the jobs data has been doing so well over the last 14 months, and some people who were previously economically inactive are now being classed as unemployed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics says that people are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have been actively looking for work in the prior four weeks, and are currently available for work. So if the number of people in jobs is increasing and economic participation rate is increasing at the same time, and under unemployment is increasing at the same time, it means that there is an increase in the number of people who previously were not in work who are now looking for work. And the peculiar outcome is that this is a good thing for the economy.

In this specific set of circumstances, an increase in unemployment rate is almost a precursor for seeing increases in labor participation and payroll numbers in the coming months. It sounds very odd and peculiar, but that is what the numbers are saying. So we have a situation where the economic output of the United States is doing just fine. The number of people working is increasing continuing to increase.

We will get new inflation data next week for the month of May, but while prices remain high, every key indicator of prices that go into the Consumer Price Index are saying that inflation is cooling. We'll look at the details next week. The last read for April was 4.9 and this number is likely to keep coming down over the next few months. And critically, the interest rate is now sitting above inflation, and the gap between the interest rates and inflation is now going to increase.

The wage inflation spiral could have taken hold, but did not take hold, and there are now no exogenous factors that are persistently pushing inflation upwards in The economy. The prices have already gone up. They're not going to come back down, but the rate at which they're increasing is now coming back down towards that two percent. Target The S P 500 might have gone up 12 so far this year, but it is really important to remember that it's still sitting at 10 below the December 2021.

Peak and many growth stocks that were beaten down in 2022 remain at rock bottom prices. As an investor I am looking at this setup and I could not be more excited about what the future is looking like. Just like I've been saying six months ago while every YouTube was busy perfecting their constipated Panic thumbnail phase. Because here is an interesting secret that you need to know: the stock market So far, this year is down, not up.

The only reason that the stock market overall the S P 500 is up so far this year in 2023 is because a small handful of companies like Nvidia Google Microsoft Apple and others went up massively because of the AI hype bubble that has taken every Tech stock that could be included up with it 40 150. Whatever. if you exclude the eight biggest AI hype stocks, the rest of the S P 500 is collectively bringing the index down seven percent. So far, this year, the rest of the market is down.

Nine months ago, the World Bank was confident that the US would plunge into a recession in 2023, but here we are in the business consensus and defense forecasts are now expecting growth in Q2 when just two months ago, the expectation was negative. The price of natural gas have been stably low since the start of the year, which is excellent news because it is helping with Energy prices which will eventually have to start coming down which will bring a wave of massive relief to the US industry. OPEC Keep announcing more production Cuts including one new one earlier today because they are greedy Fox and desperately tried to do whatever they can to push the price up artificially. But but the OPEC Cartel was playing a losing game and the oil prices also remained consistently lower this year than last year.

Now armed with all of this information, you could go back on Twitter and listen to all the noise about. inflation is still much too high. It is above two percent. The new world of order is coming.

The Russian Ruble and Chinese Yuan are about to replace the dollar and blah blah blah blah. Or you can look at the data and try to understand what it means. Try to see if there is maybe an opportunity. I Do not remember the last time I was this excited about what is coming for the stock market and the opportunity that it brings.

Maybe in summer 2009 I was working at Capital One at the time was let go after the bank fired almost all of their UK employees at the peak of the financial crisis and I left my job as the stock market hit its bottom. and I remember looking at the stock market that was massively beaten up. it was still going down. A boatload of stocks had massive discount stickers all over them, but all the associated with what caused the crash in the first place.

All the the stuff that was the reason why the stock market was down was already in the rear view mirror. If you look at the numbers, Q2 2009 was the last quarter of the recession. Unemployment peaked around that summer and then began going down progressively for the next 10 years straight. And while the TV was busy panicking, selling fear, the U.S stock market went on one of the biggest bull runs in history instead.

And if you listen to all of that, you would have missed out. and I'm seeing the same exact thing today. Sure, there will be some ups and some Downs maybe the odd unexpected Crisis coming out of nowhere, but while everyone is standing there queuing up to buy Nvidia 300 price to earnings because it's the future bro, it's the new, latest, coolest fad on. YouTube I Am looking at a completely different place in the discount aisle.

Of the dozens of companies that I've seen 50, 60, 70, or 80 wiped off their share price in the last two years for no particular reason whatsoever. Some of those are junk companies. Sure, there are many of them. The clown Market of 2021 did generate a whole wave of these.

the pelotons, the Nicola Motors, AMC and all the weird, really popular YouTube stocks like Tattoo Chef which is the hottest ticket in town two years ago and is now about to go bankrupt just after Bed Bath and Beyond did the same thing, but the market wasn't picky when stocks were losing value. Every single growth in early stage company got smashed regardless of the fundamentals. I said the same thing six months ago and at the risk of sounding like a really boring, broken record I am saying the same thing again. There are always risks the FED doing completely unwarranted increase back in March and in May is creating a new risk of over tightening although the market seems to be largely ignoring it.

But we have four inflation reports coming in before the FED comes back after their summer break at the end of September. What happens if inflation Falls towards four percent in that time and the rate stay at 5.25 or even go higher as people are predicting in one of the two meetings in June or July Is the delay delayed effect of shelter going to be the only thing propping up inflation while house prices are falling while rent increases are reducing. How long can the FED pretend that they are fighting inflation instead of devaluing U.S government debt and trying to pretend like they know what they're doing. Just three or four months ago, people were laughing at the notion that the rate increases are about stop because they have to I Got a boatload of comments saying exactly it is.

Now the same: people are laughing at the notion the rates might have to start coming down because the FED won't have a choice. drawing power is still busy out there, giving speeches and talking whatever smack it is that he's talking saying that the rate will definitely 100 not come down in 2023, probably not for most of 2024. But this is the same guy who was saying that the rates would not have to go up in October and early November 2021 while inflation was skyrocketing. So the value of his opinion is all Point Nothing A monkey throwing darts at the wall would have done a better job at managing inflation in the US than the FED has done.

But here is the best bit. Just as all this is happening, my business is starting to do pretty well and I'm looking forward to doing some investing after a little break of not having cash and in the coming months I am planning to Hoover up so many of these stocks at knockdown prices while everyone else is busy running around selling, fear, panicking, waving their hands in the air, or trying to time the very bottom if you want to discuss any of my thinking, share some of your thinking: ask questions, answer questions, discuss things with other investors, Share some of your stock analysis. see some of my stock analysis. Please join my Patreon.

The link is in the description: I'm gonna see you in the Discord Thank you so much for watching the video and as always I'll see you later. Thank you.