Hey everyone me kevin here. Let me give you a no-nonsense, complete update on what the heck is going on with the infrastructure packages, because right now we're kind of like wait a minute. We had a whole lot of drama. Now, all of a sudden things have gotten a whole lot: real quiet, real, fast yeah, that's kind of exactly what happened see.

The house passed the debt limit suspension on tuesday of this week after the senate passed the debt limit suspension through about december 3rd, current estimate as to when we'll run out of money again uh last week, of course, last week when the senate passed the debt limit Suspension there was a lot of fanfare because it was a big deal because we didn't think we'd actually be able to get it through the senate, because mitch, mcconnell and republicans were going to essentially filibuster any extension of the debt limit. If democrats didn't use the budget reconciliation package as a way to get the debt limit raised well for one reason or another, republicans moved out of the way whether they thought that democrats would just change the rules and permanently get rid of the filibuster or because they Wanted to show that they were in control by kind of ceding some power. Nobody knows nobody exactly knows it doesn't really matter. I think it probably.

The answer has to do with whether you're a democrat or a republican, in terms of what you believe. But the point is after this really big showdown. Last week, nothing's happened like we've. Pretty much had everything sol all the pressure that there was on getting these infrastructure packages done just came to a bitter halt.

Now, it literally seems like the build back better plan, which used to be that three and a half trillion dollar package, which is now expected to be somewhere reduced somewhere around one and a half to two and a half trillion dollars is pretty much just on hold And the bipartisan infrastructure package - all it needs - is nancy pelosi to go. Let's vote on it and she's not now nancy pelosi has time to vote on it, so it's kind of in her back pocket and when she brings it up for a vote, we expect it to pass, but nancy pelosi can't bring it up for a vote until Progressives are okay, with the build back better plan. That's the big package, because otherwise the bipartisan infrastructure package probably won't pass. Remember bipartisan infrastructure is the hard plan.

It's the smaller package. It's for hard infrastructure, railroads trains, bridges, uh, like infrastructure in terms of internet connectivity like broadband connectivity and, of course, the buildback better plan is the bigger one, the social infrastructure plan, with things like paid leave and free universal, a pre-kindergarten for children. There are also items in there like having uh negotiations for drug prices for medicare or allowing democrats to add priorities like dental vision and hearing programs for medicare recipients, something that bernie sanders is a big proponent of something that he really wants to see included. But we've got serious problems and we're kind of stuck on hold on negotiations on both of these packages.

Why? Well? Because you have moderates looking at the big one and a half, the two and a half trillion dollar build back better plan going yeah. We don't know what to cut yet. We want to cut a lot of things, but we don't know what to cut initially. You had some people saying well, we'll just shorten the time frame that will do things like having a child tax care credit, which would be that 250 a month or 300 per month.

Initially it was just talk about we'll just shorten that time frame now. There's literally talk about cutting entire sections out of this bill, which we're not sure what sections might go, but it's possible that the entire child tax credit could go. It's possible that paid child care could go. Medicare benefits could go it's possible that paid leave could go.

There are a lot of things in this bill that could just get sliced because here's the thing, nancy, pelosi and chuck schumer and the democrats are going to end up being in a situation where it's taker to leave it. If they don't pass the bipartisan infrastructure package, they lose on something that already passed the senate. The hard infrastructure package that 1.2 trillion dollars of spending they would lose that if they don't pass something on the build back better side well to build back better side, they need to get something together. I honestly at this point, which i know that chuck schumer is hoping to get something done by the end of october.

I'm kind of doubtful of at this point i think it's probably going to end up rolling into november. But to me it sounds like democrats are going to end up having to settle for something relatively small like another one to one and a half trillion dollars strongly wrong. I realize it's still like big. It's still in the trillions range right, but it's way smaller than the three and a half trillion dollars that joe biden was sort of promising.

We would be getting especially since joe biden came out and mentioned uh. Well, not let's go brandon but uh that that we would have a three and a half trillion dollar package and nothing less. Not even like 2.9 well looks like biden's going to be uh having an oopsies on that one, because we're probably not even going to see a 2.9 probably be more like a one and a half to two and a half plus that 1.2 trillion dollar build back Or a bipartisan infrastructure package anyway, when you try to get an update on negotiations, there's talk at least gensaki tells us that there are negotiations going on with kirsten cinema those moderates kind of potentially holding up this bill. The larger one, just like joe manchin, trying to make sure the bill is not too expensive.

One of the reasons by the way they're both holding this up is because of inflation concerns. We just had a cpi report that came out actually hotter than expected, which means a little bit more inflation than expected. We came in with 5.4 versus 5.3 percent, which is reiterating fears that maybe we're spending too much money and we're supporting the markets too much with too much money, printing and borrowing, and that's actually reiterating kirsten cinema and joe manchin wanting to hit the brakes on this Plan best case scenario would have been that on wednesday we would have seen inflation numbers miss or come in lower. That would have actually been good for this infrastructure spending.

So far, it's not now. Pete budajeg suggests that hey our infrastructure spending could actually help reduce inflation, but he's got a long way to go to convince moderates of that kind of argument. His argument is hey. If you make investments, things will become cheaper and more efficient and we'll be able to deal with our supply chain crises which could help us reduce inflation.

That's a long time coming that sort of investment and seeing that kind of a cost benefit, and i think people like joe manchin and kirsten cinema are going to freak out too much about inflation in the short term. To let any kind of argument like that fly. But then again we're also not debating the bipartisan infrastructure package that 1.2 trillion dollars to make ports move faster airplanes, move faster and cancel less flights because we're investing in our airports and more infrastructure. That's already been agreed on by democrats and republicans.

So, in my opinion, just pass that already, if you want to start seeing inflation go down and that's the case like pete buda jack, says then pass the bipartisan plan. Stop diddly dawdling waiting to try to get the second piece of the puzzle done get the second piece of the puzzle done when you get the second piece of the puzzle done but again it's progressives in the house of representatives. People like aoc are holding up the passing of the hard infrastructure package because they want to make sure they get their revised social infrastructure package. Things like that child tax credit and the other spending, whether it's on medicare or whatever else now nancy pelosi, is desperately trying to get things handled and trying to get things done.

She wrote in a letter that quote overwhelmingly the guidance that i'm receiving from members is to do fewer things well, so that we can still have a transformative impact on families in the workplace and responsibly address the climate crisis, a build back, better agenda for jobs and The planet for the children, so this is uh. This is essentially her saying hey. You know it looks like we're probably gon na, instead of just reducing the time frame of everything cut the large sections that i had alluded to earlier and just try to focus on what can we get done? What can we agree on we're not going to get everything we're going to be cutting a lot out of this and, let's just pass something already now again chuck schumer thinks we can get this done by the end of the month. I am skeptical and so are a lot of congressional analysts.

You do have a lot of household representative folks, especially democrats and republicans, are saying pelosi put the infrastructure bill on the floor. In fact mark warner, a virginia democrat said quote. I think the president ought to tell the house that we ought to deliver the infrastructure bill. Let's make it the law of the land, but again the buildback better plan is waiting for progressives to authorize the buildback better plan, the bigger social infrastructure package.

In order to pass the other one, it's literally turned into a game of chicken. So right now joe biden leaves off by saying it doesn't matter about the time whether it's going to happen in six minutes or six days or six weeks. That's a quote from him. He expects this plan to get done, but the white house does want this done sooner rather than later.

Personally, i have to say every day that goes by makes it just seem less and less likely, or at least makes the package seem smaller and smaller, and i'm surprised with the lack of updates that we're getting out of congress on this. But then again maybe i shouldn't be surprised. We, we literally argued the second stimulus package last year between april and december of last year, before it actually passed. We started talking about like who remembers the heroes act back in april of 2020 and we didn't actually get the 600 stimulus check until december yeah, that's eight months, so it goes to show you.

Congress isn't really good at making things happen fast and so far kind of just sitting on the sidelines. These inflation numbers didn't help. Jobs numbers didn't really help because right now we're thinking that it's possible, that the reason we're seeing jobs come in lower is maybe having to do more with coveted vaccinations, either covered vaccination mandates or or combination of covid vaccinations not being available for children. That sort of combination could be helping reduce job numbers or at least labor force participation, which also tends to push up pricing for wages, which could lead to more inflation.

So so far, biden's got a big hot potato and not a lot of progress happening. But this is a complete update for you. If you found it helpful, consider, subscribing and folks see in the next video thanks so much bye. You.