Hey everyone welcome to a semi-market open, a live stream. Today we are talking about the continued crisis unfolding in ukraine after russia's incursion from all flanks uh. Yesterday, uh that began yesterday evening, uh, probably still technically today for uh ukraine. It is, i began around five a.m.

In ukraine, shelling from the borders on the east and the north and an incursion from the south uh now uh most areas within ukraine have been either. People have begun, evacuating from them or we've seen attacks. We have seen now images of planes being shot down of tanks being shot. We at the same time also have discussions about the taiwan defense ministry, saying that nine chinese air force planes have entered into the air defense zone, so you've got a lot of geopolitical uncertainty right now.

This is uh potentially uh at a level of peak uncertainty for geopolitics and certainly not peak uncertainty for inflation concerns. We literally have no idea, what's going to happen with inflation, now that oil is over a hundred and two dollars per barrel. We know that uh, every ten dollar move in uh in barrel in a barrel of oil, which we literally saw in the last 24 hours, can increase consumer price, uh inflation or the index the consumer price index. By about half a percent on the year-over-year faker, we don't know yet how this is going to impact the federal reserve's behavior markets are pricing in a now reduce the likelihood of a half percentage point hike.

We are pricing in about a uh 13 chance of a half percentage point hike uh on march 16th at the federal reserve and uh. The rest is essentially pricing in uh, more than a two-thirds likelihood uh. Actually, i think, it's honestly a balance, probably about 80 chance i'll verify, really quick of a 20 uh basis, point height at basis, point hike that is uh. Let me quickly see here.

We do have the yield curve steepening slightly right now, yeah, okay, now it's actually just updated minutes ago. Here, uh now we're only pricing in a 10.4 likelihood of having a 50 basis point hike and we are pricing in the entire rest. 89.6 of a 25 basis. Point height uh, so with that said, uh the the obviously a lot of stocks are read today.

Uh indices are not as red as they were overnight. We've seen some recovery at the same time as we've seen uh pretty intense images and graphics of uh either missile striking ukraine uh and ukrainian areas, uh or even uh planes being shot down. I've got two images here that i to that i got. Let me see if i can pull those up.

Let's see here, yeah here's just an image of one of the blasts uh that we saw missile impact and then here we have a satellite or, i should more say more, not satellite, uh radar installation on fire in ukraine. So it makes sense that, right now the big targets are military targets by uh russia against ukraine uh. So we did uh open up today with the course member live stream is as usual when, when the market opens now, i do uh the course member live streams and uh well. Well, i can partially say this uh this.

The second part matters more, but i think it's important to to play this this message here. Oh man, you poor kevin, just lost lots of money. Oh that's, okay! I am with you with you. Oh man, kevin just lost lots of money.

Oh that's! Okay! I am with you here we go here. We go come on push it. Oh my god. What's happening, uh, it's been a while um yeah, so uh it's been a while, but uh there there are uh.

This morning we talked about uh in the course member live streams which uh i encourage you all to consider. It's a lifetime access, uh linked in the description down below uh, there's a coupon that you could use that uh. That expires uh at the end of the month, excited to expire on february 28th and uh you're welcome to check that out. But but every day now, when the market opens i'll, have my thesis and we'll talk either options or stock moves, and the big thing is, i have to uh at some point throughout this year, deploy all of the cash that i have, and so when there are Opportunities to do that, i send out those alerts, not meant to be copied, but that's in the stocks and psychology money group, though a lot of the programs are amazing and you get access to the live streams in any program, whether it's real estate investing which we've We are have a lot of work to evaluate the real estate markets on and what the impact of inflation will be.

There uh we we also know this. Look. The the minister of the german economy is telling us there there's no avoiding harm to our economies here, and so we have to be cognizant that uh, you know yeah. We we've got to sell off here in the stock market, not as bad as what we saw during some of the future periods here.

But uh. The question is, are: are we out of the woods? Is? Is this potentially the bottom and - and the answer really is - is no we're not completely out of the woods we uh have uh germany complaining that 35 of their oil comes from russia, 55 of their gas comes from russia. We know that russia's foreign minister says there's still a chance to return to international law, but we, you can't believe these people, as far as you can throw them. At the same time, a little side note modernist talking about maybe a seasonal covid vaccine, which seasonal kind of implies four times a year, which sounds a little wild.

We're expecting uh, quite substantial sanctions to be announced from the united states and western allies. Probably in about two and a half hours, we should see uh, probably call it three hours. We probably see a conversation or a report from joe biden, two to three hours from now on: uh sanctions that are being considered against russia. Now that the incursion has progressed, the uh swift banking system is a one that delivers secure financial transaction confirmations and messages between banks.

It is uh, it is one that is very critical, that in 2014, when it was threatened that the swift banking system would be cut off russia estimated their gdp would would fall by about five percent, and that was in 2014 and it's possible that we could see Some form of uh sanction on on swift. We could see sanctions against putin himself uh. There are a lot of things that biden could do. The problem is potentially the stronger.

Some of these sanctions are the the more of an impact there will be to oil prices. The more of an impact there will be to the economy, and so there is this balance between being punitive to putin and uh and balancing the world economy, because, even though the economy has been doing very well we're we're in a we're in a fragile recovery right. The federal reserve could easily force a recession and stamp out inflation and uh things could get very, very ugly very quickly. So i do think it's prudent to be patient in 2022, maintain some cash reserves for uh those those higher levels of uncertainty, and certainly whatever you do stay out of margin, debt uh.

You know some folks are saying they want to, and you have to be very careful with this okay. I don't recommend this for for the vast majority of folks, but some folks say hey. You know what, while real estate prices are high, maybe it's now time to potentially take out a little bit of equity and just have that, as like your rainy day fund. In the event, let's say you go into a recession, you want to be able to have some extra cash around, not necessarily to like yolo in on on on on risk uh.

You don't want to do that, but let's take a brief brief look here at uh. How some markets are moving and we'll also take a look at btc pricing, which has hopped around a little bit and thank you to our sponsor ftx, which is also linked down below next, to that course. Coupon code expiring on february 28th and then we're going to raise prices the reason by the way we're raising prices, because i i just released a ton of lectures in the wealth path course and so there's going to be a price bump again. But so if you want to see exactly what i'm buying the dip on and when i'm buying the dip check that out down below but uh ftx is a sponsor for us.

They'll give you ten dollars and free crypto uh via the link down below just use code meet kev as listed down below there, and i've been watching btc uh throughout really the last uh 24 hours. I mean i regularly do i'm almost always looking at this and what we are seeing is a nice trend up back back a little bit higher here. If we just take a fresh chart here - and we draw a quick little trend line, let's take a look at uh. How this looks here.

Look at this - it's not perfect, but uh you, you can see it. You know some clear behavior here, uh of of a nice upward trend of some of this uncertainty unwinding as casualties, maybe aren't as terribly high as uh as potentially expected in ukraine, which is, which is a good thing right. We don't want to see uh every individual in ukraine as uh. The ukrainian president says pick up a weapon, pick up a gun and fight uh, but the more we see that the the more bloodshed we see.

So there are a lot of things to balance. You know the risk of your life versus the love for your country right, uh, it's very difficult so, but we are seeing a pleasant uptrend here on btc, which which can be our uh sort of a determiner of our risk. We can see similar behavior if we jump on over to eth uh. Oh actually, i do want to jump on over quickly to coin market cap as well.

Just i want to just show you the overall uh impact here quickly. Uh, like cardano, look at cardano for a moment, folks, 79 cents uh for it pretty pretty low right now pretty low, so some things to just pay attention to uh so but uh. But again we we are not we're not out of the woods. So you you can't with certainty, say that uh uh, we we are done uh with pain but uh.

I i can say that we're. Definitely at least when we opened up. We were at a level of uh peak uncertainty regarding ukraine. I don't know if we're going to see uh more uncertainty regarding ukraine that we could uh.

It depends, and so i think, towards the end of the day, we'll have a little bit more clarity on how the market ends up reacting to sanctions. That's going to be a big deal, so we'll take a look at this uh okay. So what do we have here? All right? Let's see here, yeah nice, nice recovery on even cloudflare here. Look at this cloudflare this morning opened at 85 dollars and uh teledoc opened.

I want to say at about 60 dollars, so some of these prices are coming off of these. These lows that we've seen here, let's see here all right one. Second, here: okay, there we go so uh, let's uh, let's look at day charts here. So if we go to day charts, we can see uh that uh tdoc has certainly moved to a low over here at 58.

This morning, as well as let's see cloudflare has, is definitely not at its low again. Take a look at this you're, almost creating a double bottom over here cloudflare. Cyber security here hit a low, an intraday low of 76.61. How wild is that overstock.com had some incredible earnings figures, so you got a nice little run over here and uh lemonade.

Uh lemonade had uh some some really rough earnings yesterday, while it had a rough earnings reaction, i mean we were down as much as 20 percent on lemonade here and look at the recovery. Here i mean it's gone from 17 to 22., we've seen almost a five dollar recovery here: okay, there we go, which is which is quite wild. So, let's see here i mean that's, that's a wild intraday swing there on lemonade, i mean from 17 to 22.. Let's see 22 divided by 17.

yeah intraday, that's a 29 move on lemonade. When we talk about talk about crazy, so volatility sitting at about 35 right now, uh market, mostly positive right now we're really trying to pull up and uh. Let's take a look here briefly at what this cyber warfare warning is warns. That managers should ensure that they can disconnect parts of their network if they are hit by a cyber attack, guys we're not seeing any reports yet of any companies hit by russian cyber activity, but i just spoke with cyber security expert dmitry alprovich.

He tells me this morning: the russians could react to u.s sanctions with a wave of cyber attacks on american infrastructure, which he describes as colonial pipeline times 100.. He also warns that the russians could respond to u.s sanctions with sanctions of their own on the u.s. Those could disrupt the flow of critical materials and further worsen supply chains and boost inflation. Guys back over to you, some scary comments right.

There aiming jabbers thank you joining us now: retired four-star general and former nsa director, keith alexander general alexander, and that's going to be the big deal here is uh what our expectations are for inflation, going forward, uh oops. We want to try to get on over here to uh. Let's take a brief look here at fox cnn, just see what we got here. The ukrainian people were prepared for this because it appears that people kept saying.

Well, we didn't know he would do this, but why didn't? We know that it's a country of 40 million greater than the size of texas - indeed it's larger than georgia - and a lot of the other incursions that we mentioned here - equals about the size of california. Uh population wise an airfield a bomb depot around the uh ukrainian capital. We caught this a bit earlier today they are coming up on nightfall in ukraine. Our coverage will continue with reaction in a moment from the state department.

Do not leave back after this all right. Let's pop on over, i know he said, do not leave, but we don't have to pay attention to that. Uh! I'm from hungary, as we have a common border with ukraine. I could see a lot of uh young people, boys and girls are coming to the country.

Cheap uh, cheap working hostels are full of them. Sadly, yikes provocation. We have americans cheering putin praising him, including a former president in trump, a former secretary of state praising putin's savviness mike pompeo, who also served as cia director like you. Does that weaken the u.s? Does that weaken the nato alliance's response to this aggression? You know jim you've heard the statement that politics ends at the water's edge.

Now it's never been completely true, but this is a time when clearly, politics should end at water's edge. Everyone needs to come together. Republican democrat, independent and support uh, our president support our troops. Uh quick note here, the european central bank says the ukrainian conflict may actually delay the exit for stimulus.

This is an assault on democracy, not just an assault on ukraine uh. It is just completely violating all the principles that have governed really the world since the end of world war ii, uh in in the un charter and so forth. So this is vastly even greater than how substantial it is uh again and it has to be answered, and i think it will be answered by a unified, u.s, nato, eu uk and around the world response, and that needs to include everyone in the united states as Well, we'll be watching general david petraeus. Thank you for your service and thank you for taking the time to join us this morning.

Thanks for your great reporting, jim uh senior defense official says russian action on ukraine is an initial phase of a larger scale: invasion geez. How could it get more large-scale than this saying? I joined the international community in condemning vladimir putin's unprovoked and justified invasion of ukraine. The american government and people must stand in solidarity with ukraine and the ukrainian people, as they seek freedom and the right to choose their own future, very powerful words and strikingly different from that from the previous president, president trump. Well, it should be packed with commuters, but subway stations in ukrainian cities are under fire and now have turned into makeshift bomb shelters families having to protect their little children we'll go inside and in the capital of cube as air raid sirens are ringing out this morning.

Much more reaction and insight from cnn's chief international anchor christiana amanpour, that's up! Next, let's take a peek over here uh, it's worth noting that uh carnival is actually under 20 right now. Paypal is under 100 right now, apple sitting at about 156 remember. We do have biden's uh sanction uh announcement coming up soon and uh. Unfortunately, i do think sometimes in in the morning we can get a little euphoric when when there is a recovery, so for example, when we get these little pushes, sometimes we get a little bit too much euphoria and that ends up getting tempered.

When we get other news that comes out through the day, which could be uh sanctioned news, it could be uh news from from a host of a host of things uh, depending on how things also evolve. Uh with um with ukraine. So we'll see a tesla right now, almost flat. Look at this so we'll see, obviously how things evolve going into the uh into the close of the day.

Uh the the day is very, very young, it's 7 23, so it would be um. You know i do think there are some potential downside risks, that's not to say that buying the dip is not appropriate. Uh this morning, as the market opened, like i mentioned, uh with course members i discussed my thesis for how much to buy of the dip. What to buy in the dip and uh you're always welcome to get lifetime access to those programs linked down below coupon code expiring.

In about four days, let's say: that's monday, yeah it's monday and um. That's because we just we just released a lot of new lectures. Uh, especially for the wealth course and um, and then after after more content comes up, the price price does go up over time, so anyway, we'll keep an eye on the market over here. It is quite important, in my opinion.

Let me go see also what the yield curve is doing right now, and oil uh it's it's really important to remember. We still have terrible dates coming up for uh inflationary concerns, but specifically we have february or sorry march, 4th with a labor report. We have march 10th with a cpi report. It's unclear whether or not the cpi report will actually include february 24th.

Yet it really. It really depends uh what we end up, seeing with uh with when that cpi report is actually when the data has actually collected and how that will affect the fed uh. It does say here that senior u.s defense officials say russians have every intention of basically decapitating the ukrainian government. This is essentially to say that there is so much uh aggression expected that uh, the president of ukraine and the parliament of ukraine would essentially all become overthrown.

Uh ukrainian president now says that russian forces are trying to seize chernobyl, the site of the world's worst nuclear disaster um. Why would you want chernobyl, anyway, uh brent oil sitting right now at 103., uh 53. This has been very stable today. We also saw gold run up to almost a full two percent here close to the market, open uh, let's see here, bonds, uh 1.92, so we've seen some rise in the 10-year bond yield.

We were as low as uh around 1.86 last night and and earlier this morning, and so some of that uh, some of that flight to safety, has uh, probably honestly gone back to some degree to the stock market. Remember how ugly futures were i mean futures were such that uh? We we saw the nasdaq down at 1.3.3 percent uh in futures yesterday, clearly over playing their hand, because right now, futures are are not futures. The qqq is is, is down a mere one percent. Now we'll see we'll see how the market ends up closing up today.

Let me also see what the suits are saying. Yeah, i would not buy a car right now. I see the comments. I wouldn't buy a car, anything anything, that's overpriced because of inflation.

I would stay away from okay, let's see here, let's see what the suits have got for us. Oh hold on: let's listen to this for a sec aerial bombardment of ukraine in the last well, less than 24 hours and cnn has now just verified footage of a large explosion at melatopal airport. This is just a little bit north of crimea in the south. We're going to play that right now have a listen as we've been reporting.

The aerial compartment in this country has included a number of weapons and weapon systems. There have been cruise missiles, ballistic missiles. There have been rockets as well as artillery barrages unclear what that was caused by, but yet one more part of this country and, frankly we're now learning that these uh targets have been struck across the country from east to west north to south. And you saw one vision of it right there near crimea in the south of the country to the north.

Okay, current statistics show that it looks like russia has so far used about 75 aircraft uh in their attack here, and that uh no evidence. Yet, though, of uh an amphibious assault, uh, which this was something that we uh, we heard a little bit about yesterday, uh as a potential, though it seems like that rumor was uh, was dispelled. Okay, let's see here what else do we have uh? Obviously, uh a lot of uh atms right now out of money and ukraine. Uh here is a ukrainian military plane that was shot down near kiev, uh killing five carrying 14.

I'm going to go ahead and show you an image here now keep in mind these. These tweets here, i am liking so that way, if you want to see these, you can go to uh realmeetkevin on twitter, and then you could look at my like history and and so you'll see these. I'm actually surprised people survived this crash, carrying 14 people and and killing i mean it says, killing at least five. So in theory they could have all died.

But i don't know that, let's see here, uh multiple countries in the united nations or in the uh eu european union uh mentioning aggressive things towards uh russia. Some of this makes sense. Belgium, for example, an immigration official saying russians are not welcome. Here.

Moldova closes their airspace. Boris johnson calls the russian attack our uh a catastrophe for our nation and our continent. Hmm all right, let's see here, natural gas futures, have climbed as much as 59 in the biggest intraday rally on on record here, the uh moscow stock exchange by the way, let's take a peek at that see how it ended up. Today, moscow stock exchange down uh only actually 22 percent uh, which i know that sounds incredible to say only 22 percent, but um.

It was down as low as 31 this morning, early this morning about five six hours ago. Hmm, let's see what else we have yeah russia bans short selling. Russia for a period of time has actually had delayed the opening of their stock market. Expecting some of this uh a lot of fears in the market over what the sanctions are going to look like.

So tbd robot generated stock sales are the largest since late january, robots have been active in selling stocks in early new york trading, the largest sell program since late january, materialized on the new york stock exchange open. This is likely to continue as algorithmic selling can easily be get more selling yeah no kidding planning on building a 1.2 million home uh. I can build it for 650. Am i wrong for doing this? I i mean i would not buy uh right now.

Uh, you know i would not uh like or i i should say i would not build right now. The the prices for materials are are just insane. I mean you you're just guaranteed getting ripped off at this point. Uh senior, u.s, defense officials, say u.s, has seen indications of uh ukraine resisting and fighting back yeah indications, certainly going to be different from a full-fledged uh war.

Nato officials in nato countries, latvia and estonia tell cnn. They are concerned that if the west does not respond robustly to the russian invasion, they could be the next targets which, obviously, that would trigger the potential for an article 5 response of the nato treaty, which would be an attack on one as an attack on all. I see this is mostly unlikely. Personally, i don't think so.

Jp morgan sees it unlikely that opec will respond to russia, in other words, releasing more oil. I mean they can take advantage of. You know high prices right now, so they often do that. So a little bit of a bounce on stocks here happening right now after we did have a little bit of a draw down here again, we've kind of seen this pattern throughout the day here i do expect this this to this sort of volatility to continue throughout The day again, especially once we get sanctions from biden and as we get to market close so we'll see, i did uh, i did buy the dip this morning at uh at market open with course, members in the course member live uh.

So if you haven't seen that yet you could watch the video and the rationalization for uh which stocks and how much how to weigh this out. So a lot of a lot of recovery. Here on on a lot of the lows that we had seen. Especially in the at the after hours yesterday - and it was just disastrous - some of the prices that we had seen and look at that a firm was at 31 - it's still at 35, it's still terribly low, but so far we know that sanctions have failed.

So it'll be interesting to see you know how much these new sanctions actually do anything to convince russia to chillax and then, of course, how quickly could we see some form of transition, because the inflationary concerns are going to be a big deal? Ukrainian president says enemy? Is slowly advancing in the alternative region thanks? Okay, what else do we have here? Uh 10 2 yield curve spread of about 39.2 right now we have seen this as low as 36.. Once we get that to zero, we tend to be knocking on the door of a recession when we get that inversion, but now we're actually extending away from it a little bit which is good uh. Let's see here, i don't see all the super chats. I do.

Try my best, let's see so answer that 400k, dad guys, let's see yeah, we talked about the the air aircraft into the taiwanese territory. It's just not good. Either it's just going to lead to more uncertainty. You know it was russia yesterday that was suggesting that western media was was overblowing.

These moves by russia and uh, and i think it honestly was kind of ridiculous. I don't, i don't believe china uh, i uh. I don't think china is upfront with us about their inflation uh, the price curbs that they have the real estate crisis they're facing, so i i don't expect them to be fully honest with us about their intentions either. Okay, thank you, mead thick in the course here.

Uh biden to address ukraine, the ukraine crisis at 12, 30., so they've now delayed that that's about two hours from now hmm and he's usually late, so expect that to be uh later than usual, it's not a surprise. All right. Let's uh take a listen in over here. These are the subways that people are using as bomb shelters into ukraine.

There are some who believe that that wasn't the right way to go and that putin only understands strength, and we see that over and over again. So the real question is - and i think general petraeus with you jim, laid it out very, very well. Does he just march straight through ukraine, like a knife through butter, do the ukrainians put up resistance? How long will that take? Will there be a bloody insurgency? How much pain will that inflict on russia right now, you're reporting on all the areas that have been struck by and large, it appears to be a classic um, conventional military start of any kind of war which is to take out military installations. Airports and the like.

That's what we've seen from our correspondents that's what's happening right now, even as close as kiev, but what we think and what many people believe is that he simply wants to take out the zielinski government and replace it with a puppet government there. He said it himself in so many words and perhaps punish them as well. There's talk of uh concentration camps, uh, imprisoning, even assassination plans, christian amapur thanks so much for joining us, geez yeah uh, they they're. You know, i don't know how much of this is.

Just you know, cnn kind of blowing things up a little bit here. Uh, but uh keep in mind that uh this. This sort of action here is is pretty reminiscent of of a regime change attempt uh come on to really overthrow the government here and replace it with their own government and political leaders and how long this leads to uncertainty in ukraine has to do with uh. The sanctions that we see it has to do with uh russia's desires and their ability to negotiate uh or lack thereof.

I i don't know i there's so much uncertainty still ahead. It'll be quite interesting. Let's listen in here to cnbc for a moment, it's going to be a very difficult time. The inflation is what's going to put the fed in a hard place.

You know you look, and you say if these sanctions are onerous, can it change ukrainian president now saying if european leaders do not help ukraine today tomorrow the war will knock on your door. You can't know is uh the the fed the fed can't just walk away from it. You know and and other times in other ways. You'd always say there was maybe not the fed put, but the fed is there to protect us.

They can't do that fully now. Their hands are tied too uh. Definitely a rock and a hard place, uh art. That's for sure, as we watched some of these levels, having gotten below 42-22 a level you had pointed out earlier uh as the lows for january thanks our cashion well keeping with russia.

Ukraine, defense stocks are on the move again this morning, although it's more of a mixed picture right now, currently located north. I do want to look at the spy because we are trading at the moment below our zero percent. Fibonacci news veto verse. Where do i get that i'm happy to look at that? I appreciate that is that is that, does it do they have a channel, or is that just online i mean it doesn't matter.

I can pull both up, but let me know vetivers. I appreciate that sky. You said just try to find it quickly. Okay, i hate typing on a tv, it is probably the worst thing that has ever been invented like.

Could they be more stupid sky anyway? Um? No, it doesn't appear to be a uh station anyway uh i i do want to look here at the spy for a moment. Just technically look at this. We are under our zero percent. Zero percent fibonacci look at that breakthrough right here.

So this is the fibonacci retracement that we drew to uh from the high of january third or fourth to the low on january 24th. We have now broken below that on the spy. Our double bottom has now worsened. We are lower substantially than we were in january.

It's worth noting that tesla uh, you know around that that same time was trading for 950 to 990 dollars, it's trading for uh 200. Under that right now, uh you look at uh. Unfortunately, some stocks like uh matterport matterport around this time, was trading for ten eleven dollars. It's sitting at six dollars.

Right now, ukrainian government says that uh 18 il-76 planes have left uh an area here. I can't pronounce that p-s-k-o-v in the direction of kev and we'll arrive. This is a city in russia. Okay, so i mean that's: that's not good hold on a sec.

Oh, let's buy the dip, uh il-76 plane. Oh, these are transport planes. I mean i. I do not expect them to be like i imagine you could probably have like these outfitted as as bombers, but i think they're more cargo.

Let me see, i don't know if you can't even have that we're not going to see bombs. I i don't expect that, because they're not trying to create um civilian casualties, at least that we're aware of i mean it's, i i it could be, but i i would guess i would guess this. These are cargo planes uh. I i am not.

I i don't see any indication that russia is trying to uh purposefully, hurt civilians and inflict that sort of pain right now. I imagine that could happen uh. Let's take a look here. If the foreign ministry of the ukraine is still down offline yeah, it is oh wait.

No, it came back. Oh it's back up, they got it back up. The cyber attack has has somewhat stopped. This was down most of yesterday, uk prime minister pushes for russia to be ejected from the swift system, yeah that that uh.

This is uh being reported now by the financial times. Let's take a look here at uh oil, again uh, almost at 104 still. Somebody here reporting that potentially a helicopter has been shot down a russian helicopter. It wouldn't surprise me a paratrooper's with that russian flag, raise where uh somebody here saying get crypto off exchanges.

I don't um. I don't know if we need that much fear mp. Materials has been receiving governmental support and contracts in an effort to bring back the supply chain to the west earnings later tonight. It's not a terrible point.

One of the issues that i have with mp - and it's not mp's fault at all - is that it kind of became a little bit of a momentum play yeah and i hate saying that but uh because i i do think they're uh they're spectacular, but i i You know get a little i've just been. You know. I mean if there's anything that we've learned since 2020 is to be be very careful. Around momentum plays take profits when they run and uh and and be careful when they start trending down.

Oh look: sun run moved nicely here. Uh sun run out of about 2156. I mean look how low some of these stocks are. Let me take a look at sunrun here i mean because we're trading for summer of 2020 levels here, let me see on sunrun.

I want to look at the forward price to earnings on this one. Uh, let's see what we got, you know you don't have to use 2025 anymore by the way you could start using like 2022 or 2023. It's kind of great uh, which i really really prefer. Yeah, unfortunately, for sunrun they're going to be losing money uh, but they're selling, for i mean as a sales, multiple they're really only selling for a couple times sales, but they're they're, not bringing anything to the bottom line, so their margin is negative.

So, unfortunately, with sunrun, you probably do have to go out. I mean, maybe in the future, they'll be able to bring down seven percent of the bottom line. It's honestly terrible um. I do like, as a result honestly end phase because they bring a lot of margin to the bottom line, but they're selling for about 40 times 2022 earnings which i have to say, is actually not miserable uh.

You know to 40 times 20. 22.. That's this year. That's not terrible uh trading.

Four right now about it, looks like uh 131. yeah would prefer it down here at 118.. I i don't think we need to be extremely uh impatient right now, with with buying back in uh. Again i did buy the dip.

Uh did a lot uh. This is some of the largest spine that i've ever done at market open this morning. Uh, but we'll see, i don't think, there's it's time to be impatient. If you want to see exactly what was done, remember uh, you could get lifetime access to the programs link down below and building your wealth.

You get my perspective, you know it's not meant to be copied. It's just supposed to be like i like to consider myself like an air raid siren, so so that way when you get the alert it's like, oh, what's what's going on kevin and uh, and then you can kind of determine what's right for you tesla's actually flat Right now, wow look at that sitting at about 763 here uh, but anyway there is a coupon code link down below for that uh. That expires on monday. It's about four days, uh and again that's it's! Only prices are only going up because we did release a bunch of new lectures, i'm always adding content and that's one of the things i think that's that's unique about uh, my programs and then i'll stop talking about.

It is just that. I'm always trying to add content and if there's something that changes or i need to add information, i do that uh, because personally, i've bought courses in the past and i'm like come on. Man like like it's one thing: if the information lasts forever, then it's not like you have to keep reupdating it, but it's another when things change and then it's like, where are the updates? I don't know that always bothers me. So uh, okay, let's see, let me see what else the suits are saying right now.

So let's go into the back here. So again, biden expected to speak in about two and a half to three hours. He does tend to be about 30 minutes late. Okay, sales dry up on geopolitical risk, fresh debt issuance, has skidded to a halt in nearly every market.

Uncertainty from russia's invasion of ukraine is speaking: spooking bond sellers who prefer calmer markets when pricing new deals and still that note about natural gas futures rising as much as we've seen 59 percent in some parts of europe. Hmm russian stocks suffer third worst rut in history of markets wow. Let's take a look at this russian stock rut on thursday is currently the third worst plunge in market history in local currency terms, as investors sell the nation's assets following the invasion of ukraine, the benchmark moax was trading about 38, lower erasing 200 billion in shareholder wealth. The gauge sank to 45 at its lowest point on thursday, that uh, that uh or in the most brutal sell-off, even after argentina's 53 slump in january 1990 during hyperinflation, wow wow uh yep commodities skyrocketing.

Let's uh take a listen here: platinum, six percent of aluminum, five percent of nickel and four percent of crude steel according to cru, and much of this is exported for nickel platinum and palladium, it's more than 90 percent. These metals are instrumental for auto companies, uses include catalytic converters and lithium ion batteries. Aluminum has a host of applications, everything from packaging to soda cans and the jump we're seeing in prices comes down to fears over what potential sanctions could mean as jp morgan put it. There is a very little additional cushion for further supply disruptions.

Higher energy is also having an impact. Some european production had already slowed due to high power prices in the energy intensive metals industry, all of which is contributing to the inflation we're seeing across the economy. Carl back to you appreciate that ukraine, foreign minister, encouraging uh countries to ban russia from swift, uh, apparently also the kremlin's website's down, we'll, take a look at that a natural gas and oil. Obviously, up substantially take a look here: brent, snacking on the door, just three pennies away right now from 104 again, which we have seen that yesterday uh, but we're really holding on to some of these higher levels.

Here now up 7.36. That's quite wild! That's that's! A massive massive move on uh - let's see here on oil, all right, let's take a listen over here in support of america's heroes, nope actually conor mcgregor, let's try over here. I don't know if it's set in yet i don't know when what is this? I don't want your ads. Oh my gosh everything's, an ad fine.

Then all right, let's see here there, we go we're back cnn fighter jet activity in aleski, ukraine just to the northwest of crimea. Take a look. We've been told that russia has already established air superiority. You must wonder if those are russian jets, we're watching there.

Let's speak now to cnn global affairs, analyst, susan glasser, cnn, military analyst, retired general wesley clark and general clark. I do want to begin with you, because i understand you've been hearing from contacts you have about. What's happening on the ground, tell us what you know: wake up, general! Okay, i believe sorry for jim jim what's happening right now is uh. He fell asleep.

Um, that's one we know about, but the russians are moving in from all directions. I think the intent is going to be to russian forces to converge on key and try to replace president zielinski uh, we've known from the beginning. That keeb was the target of this and um, and the question is: how strongly can the ukrainians resist, as dave petraeus said earlier, a lot of it is: can they fight? Can they find these forces, but the other part of it is: do they have the command and control in place to be able to direct ukrainian forces against the russian forces? For example, the russians are already in airfields around key: are they being counter-attacked? How successful was the counter-attack are barricades up in key? We haven't seen them what's going to keep the russian tanks from just running down the other side of that divided highway and going right into downtown once they get in there it'll be chaos susan. I have to ask you: president putin has been in power now for 22 years, given what's unfolding now this tragedy.

Do you think that his standing among the russian people ultimately will change after this? You know it's very interesting, because putin has established uh, reestablished a police state inside of russia and so uh you're, seeing sporadic outbreaks of protests today in cities around russia. These are very brave but very isolated. There were thousands who came into the streets in 2014 when putin first invaded ukraine, but you know the bottom line is: he has undertaken a very dramatic internal crackdown, arresting alexei navalny, his chief internal uh, political opponent, he's even putting navalny right now on trial. A second time from his prison, and so i think it's it's very hard to understand.

Uh the kind of threat putin could face from within uh, but this was an invasion ordered from above. This is not a groundswell of the russian people, uh going against uh ukrainians and for years. In fact, putin himself has spoken of ukraine as brothers. Well now he sent the russian army in to kill their brothers yeah a grim chapter in world history, a war erupting on european soil and brent now, over 104 wti sitting at 98..

It wouldn't surprise me to see oil continue to trend up potentially potentially that 110 direction uh. I do think that if uh oil continues to trend up there, there could be more downward pressure on the stock market. As now we transition from okay there's not so much death and destruction. Ukraine, thank god, but now we got to deal with all the inflation fallout from this gold.

Actually relaxing a little bit. Let's take a look at gold. I did also trade gold this morning again, if you wanted um, you want all my alerts when i trade make sure to check that those programs out down below but uh yeah look at gold just intraday here down. You saw here's your pre-market.

This is where you had your your explosion of no, i mean explosion and gold. If it's a commodity, so uh you know. Well, i guess i shouldn't say commodity, i mean it's more. Just the prep gold doesn't move so substantially quickly with a 10 trillion dollar market cap uh.

But anyway it was about a two percent move here and uh looks like it's given back a lot of that uh so can we can we get a stat or fact check on this somebody right? It's uh, stonks, stonks and chomps. Here right, 8 500 troops are on red alert to deploy 70 000 of our troops already in europe. My brother's unit was sent to ukraine last week, so the narrative that we don't have troops there is bs, you know uh. Let me put it this way: you're, not the only person.

I've heard that from so i agree with you uh. I do think that uh, you know, biden has uh, has told us uh bluntly that there would not be american troops in ukraine. I i don't believe that i think uh they're there to train support uh prepare arm either the ukrainian military or reservists or whatever but um. I i don't think this expands past ukraine yeah all right.

Let's see what else uh btc, by the way, almost back to 36 000. uh, shout out to uh ftx our sponsor for today's video for uh some insight here on to btc note uh. I did draw this trend line here on the five minute chart and it actually looks like we're breaking out slightly of this uh uh or breaking away from this trend line, which is good because then we could potentially get back to some of our supports uh in The mid 36 range and uh at the moment at least it appears that's the direction we're trending in though i would expect and no guarantees, but i would expect additional volatility uh around the remarks by joe biden at 12, 30 pm eastern time and market close. We have joe biden right now meeting virtually with g7 members.

Actually, it looks like they may have just wrapped up that call ukrainian military talking about how a russian reconnaissance platoon has surrendered ooh, taking hostages, probably jeez, hmm, okay, if they can communicate in afghanistan through tunnels and caves and mountains. I think the people of ukraine can can communicate and organize. I think we've seen this in the world many times where people really just uh leave the rest of us stupefied and how efficient they are when they really care about something or passionate about something and coalesce, and so i think that's their best hope. I have no idea how possible that is: i've never been to ukraine or russia, but i can tell you as someone who's fought insurgencies in two places, that is by far their best strategy.

Thank you. Joey joey thanks for everything, yeah thanks for being on with us today, and thanks to dan hoffman his expertise and served in moscow helsinki. He knows it so well and general jack keane. Your perspective is always welcome.

Thank you very much, gentlemen. Here on the quick, quick shout out here by the way to uh those of you uh here kathy james matthew, michelle francesco, tyler brian, those of you who are signing up for the programs on building your wealth down below happy to have you as new members, then Uh there's a comment also here: uh check out that coupon code down below we have a price going up uh at the end of the month, which is already monday, which is kind of wild steve. Here mentioning that german chancellor, olaf schultz warned boris johnson that germany would not support, kicking russia out of swift and that potentially, neither would the eu, according to the financial times. That's interesting.

Let's listen to this alert here. War to take over another european nation is on, and it is time for americans to begin paying attention. Now i mean just take a look at the world markets. Bottom right of your screen.

The world financial markets, including our very own, are taking a beating as a full-scale war against ukraine is already shattering peace and stability in america and in europe. Excuse me in america, if you think the price of gasoline is high. Now, brace yourself, we buy more than 500 000 barrels of crude per day from russia and they just hiked the price on us. I'm harris faulkner.

You are in the faulkner, focus oh monologue. Oh we saw this yesterday the missile on the airport. For months we have witnessed the russian president a couple things that are interesting by the way i'm just going to hop on over to my tab here with uh ftx uh. Thank you to ftx for sponsoring this video check out that link down below uh, where we were watching uh btc now hit 36 000..

Take a look at this folks, the the kremlin kremlin dot eu is not loading and the uh russian uh military foreign foreign foreign ministry website is is also not loading, so it seems like russia is getting counter-attacked here and uh. Vladimir putin is threatening nuclear action. In the event any country tries to attack russia in retaliation. I don't actually expect anybody to attack russia in retaliation, but i do expect that these cyber attacks are are are going to occur.

Uh against russia, uh european central bank uh. Now, uh coming out one of the members of the ecb, declaring that inflation has proved more persistent and broad-based than expected, obviously uh. That is our part two issue for 2020, suggesting that inflation is highly unlikely to fall back under two percent. This year, btc seems to like that news, just over 36 000 now holding on to that 36 level.

Looking at uh individual stocks here, you've actually got google, which has turned green sitting at a 25.75 which, if we look at that, that's approximately at the level that we saw on january 24th, it's well below our 200-day. Moving average brings us to about may pricing. If we look at the s p 500, we are uh also below our zero percent fibonacci trading for about 417 right now, well below our 200-day moving average hop on over to qqq we're moving the lines for a moment you can see. The double bottom has actually worsened compared to january.

So if you were in tech stocks in january, the last month has been worse for you, of course, there have been short rallies, but this is very, very normal and uh. The pain is not over. Yet we have. We have a lot of ugliness to go.

Not only how these sanctions will fall out, how oil prices will fall out, but, most importantly, how inflation and and our central banks are going to have to react uh to these disasters. It's like lemonade's relaxing a little bit. Intraday here from uh from some of its uh higher run, let's pop back on over to fox for a moment, we'll jump to cnn after just trying to keep it balanced. This military facility there's a concern now that if they retain control of this airport, the antonov airport, they will be able to fly in more armored vehicles, and then they can continue to try to launch a ground campaign against the capital of kiev.

They would hit it from multiple directions, something that western intelligence analysts warning when and if the capital falls. I think that's a that's a rough moment, because there could be a lot of resistance and fear ukrainian president valodemir zelinski, who is calling on the parliament to implement an immediate mobilization of all troops across the country and encouraging civilians here, not only in the capital, but Across the country to pick up arms and fight harris, thank you very much. The leader of pakistan is now in moscow to meet with putin about a new gas pipeline. Ukrainian officials now say 40 ukrainian soldiers and 10 civilians have now died.

Uh, i i don't know if this is total or just now, goldman sachs now coming out suggesting that geopolitical uncertainty lowers the odds of a 50 basis, point hike. We know that we talked about that early. Here's your g7 meeting by the way you've got uk france, germany and so on. Uh, let's see here pakistani president, was due to meet with putin on thursday to discuss along this uh during a long planned visit that began hours after russian forces attacked ukraine.

Mr khan, intended to push for a multi-billion dollar gas pipeline to be built by pakistani and russian companies, gas, obviously a crucial export, and now, without the nordstrom 2, we have uh less of a way for russia to get that oil out of russia. A series of loud blasts were heard on thursday in russian southern uh belgorod region near the border with ukraine. Let's take a look here for a moment. This is a an attack map where uh russian troops have landed in the port city of odessa and, of course, as expected, we have seen troops move in uh from the north uh from belarus and from the eastern areas.

Kharkiv we've seen massive uh explosions and and even uh shellings here. This is gon na be the big one. Here, though, is the larger cities and uh. When and if potentially, the capital falls.

It's listening here to expectations on russia. Actually, they talked for about nine he's part of the uh white house press corps. Tonight the president got a briefing from his national security team and also from the ukrainian president, zelinski and biden says. He asked me to call on the leaders of the world to speak out clearly against president putin's flagrant aggression and to stand with the people of ukraine.

President biden is also promising a new batch of sanctions on the russians. A senior administration official tells me there will be some significant ones in there. We know sanctions against putin directly personally are on the table. Those would be designed to isolate him from the outside world.

Financially but it's unclear if officials are going to use that now or if they're going to wait for putin to do something even more aggressive. It has been now two full days since the president's last public comment on camera about russia. So there is a lot of build up ahead of these 12 30 remarks. I hope the president finally recognizes that this is the time for strength that the moment of diplomacy the moment that we could be taking half steps and half measures that that has gone out.

The window, you know just as russian bombers were flying over in devastating areas all across ukraine, now that we have dozens, if not hundreds of folks on the ground who are killed. You know before that number grows into the thousands of the tens of thousands. We need to show that we mean business, there's more activity than usual here at the white house so far this morning and i'll note that we've reached out to the vice president's team to see how involved she is with this who she has been talking to. But we haven't heard back harris such a valid question.

To ask i mean that was the person that they sent in place of secretary blinken when he had to pull down off this here, just to mention that uh yeah, this g7 meeting that they're referring to has concluded uh. There are still attacks and explosions being reported in various different areas here of ukraine. Here's a quick little map that just shows you this. Let's go ahead and close that down for a moment here, more u.s military assets will also arrive in eastern european countries.

Today, six f-35s will arrive in estonia, lithuania and romania today, two for each country. Why does it seem like not a lot? I don't know anyway, uh eight f-35s from germany to other eastern european uh regions, 20 ah-64 helicopters. Us troops also remain outside ukraine. Un says staff in ukraine is safe and accounted for about 1500 united nations staff.

Members in ukraine are safe and accounted for they're relocating staff, u.n security council resolutions being discussed privately for responding to russia. Russian russia's foreign ministry says the u.s has told moscow. It does not intend to hold talks on security guarantees. Well, yeah.

The united states said that uh no no talks once you invade we'll see what happens, and we will see zielinski president of ukraine, no one will be able to convince or force us to give up.