So look, we got inflation over here running at a 40-year high. On the flip side, we got the gas prices, the commodity prices going through the roof. People are talking about 150 170 per barrel. How does this thing not end in the recession? Let's talk about it.

My name is tom nash, and i'm gon na spend the next five to seven minutes with you talking about the possibility that the united states is going into a recession. Now we're not gon na panic here. We're not gon na fearmonger, nothing's gon na be emotional. We're gon na be academic, analytical and objective about what's going on, inflation is definitely not in a good place.

I'm not gon na lie to you. The latest numbers point to a 7.9 year over year. That's as high as we had it since june 1982., we have the world's biggest producers of wheat, palladium massive gas producers and oil producers, basically waging war. Now it's not a healthy situation any time, but specifically in the time of supply chain shortages and inflation.

When you have the world's warehouse - or some may refer to it as the world's bread basket, since russia and ukraine are responsible for about 30 percent of the world's wheat production, it's a problem. I'm not gon na sit here and pretend like it's not, and if, without russia and ukraine, we were already flirting with the possibility of a 10 inflation year over year, just in 2022, it's not far-fetched in about three to four months. We might see that anyways, regardless of what happens in russia and ukraine, now add to it. The fact that for the past two years, people have been pouring in into risky assets, people have been living bonds in the real estate market and going heavy into stocks, equities and crypto.

That kind of mixture creates a combustion potential that might lead the u.s economy and the stock market into one of the biggest recessions we've ever seen and looking at the stock market. It points out to total madness. We used to have two types of market bear market, bull market. What do we have now? This thing kangaroo market is going up and down like a crazy person, i mean that's, definitely not an indicator of a healthy, stable environment and on the heels of that, we got goldman sachs out here, pretty much lowering the us gdp growth to 1.75 percent.

Now, look it's just a goldman sachs forecast. I mean it's worth what it's worth for me. I don't really look at it as god speaking to me, but it's a nice indicator of where the sentiment is right now, which is that things are about to get much worse, and it doesn't help that the federal reserve is pretty much stuck. They can't really help us here.

The qe policy have basically brought us to the doorstep of madness: nine trillion dollars in assets held by the federal reserve, zero rate interest. I mean this thing has to stop, because it's pretty much leading us directly into hyperinflation, so qe quantitative easing has to stop, but on the flip side, stopping it at this point might actually push us even stronger towards a recession. So the federation is basically staying here and saying: well, we don't know what to do here. Look on the one hand, if we don't do nothing we're going to inflation.

On the other hand, if we do something we're pushing the economy closer to recession, what should we do and in this world there's two things that don't lie, statistics and history? And if you go back and look at every time we had high inflation. We've always seen the recession. 1973. 1980.

1990. 2008. Now there's more examples, but high inflation is not a good thing for the economy. Obviously now, despite what i just told you here and despite what i'm about to tell you right now, nobody really knows if a recession is coming or not, nobody knows that there's other factors that basically counter these arguments.

For example, the fact is that we have right now the hottest strongest employment market in none of these other recessions. We had such a strong employment numbers. We have literally no unemployment problem in the u.s right now. In fact, it's the opposite.

People are trying to lure workers to come and work for them. I mean it's a very strong employment market. Some might argue about the precise measure of how strong it is because maybe some of it isn't really reflective of how strong or weak it is. But the fact of the matter is, we do not have an unemployment problem in the u.s, which is something we almost always had when we had a recession earlier and still, despite this record-breaking strong employment market right now.

If you go back 30 days in the past 30 days, the likelihood the probability the chances, whatever you want to define it of a recession, have exponentially grown than 30 days ago. This latest ukraine, russia situation, has pushed us much closer to recession. We're coming off the heels of a pandemic supply chain issues have slowly slowly started to move in the right direction. Just before the war, the war has basically sent us back.

We still have a lot of money in the system. The us federal reserve can't really raise interest without crashing the us dead. There's so many things in play here. Nobody really knows if somebody's telling you that they know a recession is coming or it isn't they're lying, because nobody knows the one thing i'll tell you is that the probability of such has increased the past 30 days and that's something i think you should know because Everybody should prepare, based on their own understanding of the likelihood, the risks and, what's coming, i'm not gon na sit here and tell you, i know what's gon na happen, neither i don't have magic solutions as far as what to do next, but i will share with You what looks to be on the ground as a much riskier situation than just 30 days ago.

That's just my job to give you that info and you do it whatever you see fit now. I hope this was exciting for you as it was for me. I'm glad to be back, my voice is back, i think, i'm out of covert. Finally, thank god, let me know below which covers you want me to do next as far as stocks as far as stories economics, geopolitics, whatever it is, you want to hear next.

Let me know below and i'll see you monday.