Hey everyone meet kevin here. Welcome back to another episode of the meet kevin show in this video, we have the honor of having lynette zhang back on the channel, the chief market, analyst from itm trading, both her youtube channel and her website are linked in the description down below. As usual. These videos are not sponsored they're brought to you to bring you information and perspective, and with that said, we had a big thing happen in the markets today and lynette's going to tell us all about what happened today and a reaction.

What does this mean? Lynette what's happening well, the the two-year yield went above so it inverted above the 10-year treasury bond yield. That is a big deal and i've been watching the yields invert really since january, when the 20-year bond yield went above paid more than the 30-year bond. So this was not really a surprise. The moment that it happens, that's always a surprise, because you're never quite sure, but what that typically tells you is that we have a recession ahead.

Now that wouldn't really be necessarily that big of a deal there'd be a number of ways that you could protect yourself. But the real problem is is that we are absolutely 100 at the end of this big fiat money, government, debt based money, experiment and they're out of tools. The central banks have no tools left because the tool, the key tool that they use to regulate the rate and speed of inflation, are interest rates and with interest rates being anchored at zero and the fed in a position where they've been vowing. To raise interest rates.

To fight this inflation that somehow magically they didn't create, but they did uh right there, they're really behind between a rock and a hard place, and it's just a matter of what are they going to fail at not will they be? Will they be able to pull anything off because if they don't have interest rates, then the only thing that they have it's the money printer? That's it. I mean it really is just that simple and when that happens with all of the inflation every time they do that the value of the money out there goes down more the purchasing power, the inflation, so they either heat up and stoke more inflation by printing money. Where they raise interest rates which they've committed to do so, they kind of have to to retain their credibility either way we are in deep. Doo-Doo j-pow tells us that hey, don't worry, we'll be able to raise rates.

You know we'll get to two percent or whatever, and maybe even a little bit above two percent by next year, maybe 2.9 or whatever, and you know what we'll have a soft landing we've done it before. We could do it again. What's your response to him, if you were talking to jay powell, i would say you are living on hopium. Aren't you because historically, that has never ever ever happened and so and again between a rock and a hard place.

Now his job is to keep everybody calm and to keep all the wealth inside of the markets. That's his job, but i'm pretty sure he's not. I mean look at the bags under his eyes. He's not sleeping well, oh no ouch, so uh, okay! So the yield curve inverted.

This often signals a recession. Some people say signals are responsible, always signals a recession. Some say it takes about 18 months for that recession to come. What's your take, is it going to come sooner later? Well, typically, it does it.

It takes between typically it takes between 12 and 18 months, but that's when you still have some balance sheet to work with, with the balance sheet up at 10 trillion or 9 trillion, rather than you know, and supposedly they're, going to run off the balance sheet. Not gon na happen, it's not well, you don't think they're gon na be able to pull that off. No, i do not. No, i do not.

I mean i don't even a little bit think they can pull this puppy off because the last time that they tried in 2016 raising the the uh interest rates and run they didn't. Even it was just not reinvesting the interest and the principal well that led us to september 2019 when the money markets froze that's the global plumbing financial that was the fire financial overnight. I remember this, the overnight rate shot up to like 10 or something insane, because there was no liquidity right and and isn't that interesting, because they've been pumping massive amounts of liquidity in the markets and yet there's headline after headline after headline of the lack of liquidity. In the markets, how is that yeah? That's interesting too, because i think i feel like then uh the like the repo market and money market funds there was.

There was a lack of this kind of money, and now we've got this huge access. Could that happen again? If they start trying to run everything down again where the market freaks out like it did then well the you see all the volatility in the markets. The markets have been kind of freaking out because of the raising of the interest rates. Since so much of this is it's not just all the fed printing, it's all the additional debt that the corporations and everything with these you know zero percent interest or near zero interest rates.

So now this is most of it is short term debt that has to be rolled over because you should never pay debt off, i'm being facetious, so i'm not being serious about that, but that is basically the theory is that you never pay the debt off. You just roll it and take on more and more and more leverage, and so as long as the assets continue to inflate up well, they could take on more and more and more leverage and but as the as the federal reserve, and they they kind of. They have to because if they don't raise interest rates now, it will whatever little bit of credibility they still have in the markets and that that's been getting real thin. It's going to go away, and i i would not for any amount of even gold.

To be honest with you, i would not want to be in jay pal shoes right now: wow wow, that's incredible! Now! A lot of folks are making a big deal about whether or not we're going to have uh. You know series of seven to all the way up to 17 25 basis, point hikes: what what are the odds about them just coming out and saying: hey, we screwed up here's a two percent hike because we are failing or or you know, even the 50 bases Point hike like what what are the odds of a 50 or or just a real big hike in your opinion, a rug poll so to speak, it's going to be really interesting because i think they're going to do 50. Maybe at this next meeting they will never do a 2, and even if they did, inflation is running so much hotter than that. So, in other words, let's say that they magically somehow.

I i there's no way. Okay, i'll put my neck on the line and i'll bet you anything. There is no way on god's green earth that there are seven consecutive rate heights in in the offing. They just can't do it and there's already bets that, and actually even in their dot plot, they had already shown where they plan to lower the rates right.

The only reason they're raising the rates really is so that they can lower them into this next crisis, which is already upon us, wow wow. You know, even if they did, though you're still in negative yields, because, if you're buying a treasury bond at let's say three percent okay well be generous. They raise the rate three percent, but inflation is running at ten percent you're still minus seven percent yeah, that's terrible! But now what do you think about uh? You know we. I know the word transitory has left the fed, because that was a big embarrassment right.

That was laughable, right, uh, but there's this argument that hey, if, if maybe the war ends and then we get like commodity prices back under control and the supply chains catch up, maybe inflation can go down. Is that just as you said earlier, opium or what's your take on inflation going down? No, i you know i've been feeling, even though i don't have absolute technical confirmation, so i could be wrong. This is purely my opinion, except that i do think that, because we are at the very end of the currency life cycle, that we are at the beginning phases of the hyperinflation cycle - oh wow, after you burn off the debt in order to go into the new Monetary system, no other option, because the only thing that i can find so far is that the new system will be based upon accumulating debt as well, so they got to get rid of the debt. That's there because it's at nosebleed levels, you know so you think maybe the way to just deal with the debt is almost hyperinflate the currency and and maybe start over with some other currency and because everybody would lose trust.

I mean if we had hyperinflation. Nobody would trust the dollar anymore. We'd lose the petro dollar status. The world reserve currency status, it'd be back well we're we're pretty much losing all of that.

Right now i mean the imf. Just came out with a working paper uh in february. Talking about the stealth loss of the us dollars, reserve status right and proceeded to show us. You know how yes, indeed, you've got the.

It was actually a really interesting report. An interesting read and you showed the loss of 10 percent in the use of the dollar over a short period of time and the rise of alternative non-typically reserve currencies rise of 10 and the interesting part that they pointed out was the currencies that have gained that Reserve status or more of that reserve status are countries that most of them, not all of them, because canada has no gold but have been the countries that have been accumulating gold. The emerging markets that have been accumulating gold - and i just thought uh. Yes, the stealth erosion of dollar dominance, wow yeah from the international monetary fund, wow, okay, they'll - have to read that.

Thank you for that. Oh you're, very, very welcome! So you know we are already and we're we're watching oil that can now be purchased in yuan and ruble for oil, so the petro dollar is essentially, if it's not absolutely dead. It's on its last legs, wow right. What implications does that have for? Like you know, people watching at home whether it's real estate or stocks, or gold or bonds like what what's the fallout for people.

Well, you know, if you, the huge advantage to being the world reserve currency, is that everybody in the world has to hold dollars right. So it creates an artificial demand that demand, if, if they can wean away from the dollar slowly, those dollars come back, create more loss of purchasing power, so more inflation, but they do it in a steady way. If, on the other hand, the world says, you know forget this, we can see that the central bank, that the fed has no more control - and you know what's just recently - happened with russia being cut out of the swift system, which is the payment. The global payment system for dollars - you know i mean these things - have ramifications that we haven't even felt yet but uh.

What i see is that the, if, if all of the countries are not holding as many dollars that artificial demand is going away and therefore we become a local currency, just like any other local currency and we're dealing with a lot more inflation. Because we've been the world reserve currency, i see okay, because so everything around us that we import then becomes more expensive because our dollar has less purchasing power internationally. So all of our costs are more expensive, so costs here go up. We have more inflation at home that sucks and then, when that happens as it's happening is people are seeing that and they're losing confidence in the system and they're losing confidence in the central bank, and this is a con game.

So therefore requires confidence and that's why you're always testing it. I mean i'm i'm dead serious about that. That's when the hyperinflation. That's why they're testing confidence, because because it's a con game constantly? Yes, you know it's it's.

You know think about this. It's consumer confidence! It's uh inflation expectations and they need to be anchored right. They test confidence all the time, because they absolutely know that the only way that this monetary system works is if the public trusts that this dollar can never go away, even though it has been going away since the day you were born since the day i was Born since the day anybody that was born after 1913, it's been the value has been going away and, and it's been creating inflation that creates nominal confusion. Yeah we get married to numbers, we've been taught to marry numbers right, so you see the stock market going up.

You see, you know, you see crypto assets going up. What can you convert them into because if the only thing you can convert them into are dollars that have no value? Well, i don't know you tell me, but the last time i checked 10 trillion times. Zero was zero, that's a good point. So what what i mean yield? Curves have inverted.

What do you take of this recession? I mean is this? Is this an o weight all over again housing stocks like where's the pain? Is it worse? It's way worse because in 0.8, honestly, that's when i knew the system died right and it was it, it really did and all they did was put it on life, support and start all of this massive qe. All of this massive free money printing dropped interest rates to zero that was to, and if, if you remember back, then the central banks were talking about the reflation trade right, so they targeted what was going. They were going to it's like a balloon pump that air back into stocks into bonds and into real estate, and it was primarily because that's visible to the public, but but key in here are all the bets that were created. The derivative bets that are created on top of all of those assets so um yeah, i mean if everything is done on debt and people default on that debt corporations - hedge funds they default on that debt, then what do you think happens to those assets? Yeah yeah? That's that's no good! So let me just kind of continue more than one thing, because you asked me about gold.

Yeah, okay and gold is the only asset that has actually been suppressed, because a rising gold price is an indication of a failing currency and they do not want you to understand that the currency is failing and all the ramifications like we've been talking about. So i'm not looking for wall street to tell me the value of this at some point. This is an absolute absolute fact. Here's one guarantee i can give you at some point.

Every single asset goes to its fundamental value, which is actually not wall, street's definition, but the true value for which that asset was created. For so not what you wanted to do old is the primary currency medal and it has been for 5 000 years. Okay and that's because, unlike any other financial asset, it has the broadest base of buyer, because it is used across the entire global economy, every single area. So it's used in manufacturing, it's used in finance, it's used in art, it's used in food.

It's used everywhere that this is the only financial asset that can say that and critically it is the only financial asset that runs zero, counterparty risk and that's why central banks are accumulating it and, in fact, have accumulated uh more than they have in 31 years highest Level of accumulation: how do we? How do we see that? How what they're accumulating and then, if they're accumulating it, how? How do they suppress the prices? At the same time, like where's, that disconnect question hey? Well, you can go to gold.org or you can just do a search on central bank gold holdings and those gra or you can watch my work. I typically publish that stuff on a pretty regular basis now the way that they can be accumulating. All of this and they're, not the only ones, but the way that all this gold can be physical, can be accumulated and you can see the price suppressed is through spot contracts, so on the comex exchange, because one contract - and there are a number of different sizes. But, for example, one contract that controls 500 500 ounces of gold costs a regular commercial bank like jp morgan, 150 bucks, if you're a central bank, it costs a hundred and ten bucks, literally control about a million dollars worth of gold.

Wow huh, yes, but interesting. Oh yeah and the bang for international settlements, which is the central banker central bank i didn't know print screen, then unfortunately, oh sure i had, but i saw with my own eyes. So i could verify this without a doubt for every one ounce of physical gold that exists, there were 62 000 ounces of derivative gold, which is digital gold that does not nor ever will exist because anything is a finite amount. So it's pretty easy to manipulate the price if the world is reading 62 000 ounces to one and the cost of 150 bucks or 110 bucks yeah.

I'm writing this down. This is very interesting, then, and so yeah gold.org you're right has has sort of a little bit of a guide in terms of how much they have and you're saying they can hold it physically. But then they also just play the derivatives market, which is probably just a mess and a bad idea huh. That sounds like oh wait.

Oh it's! This is so much worse than 08, but but yes, it's you know, look there used to be, and there still are some legitimate uses for a derivative and derivative you think about. It comes from derived the word derived right. If i'm a farmer and it's january and i'm going to sell my crops in september - and i don't know what is going to happen between with the weather or anything between now and then or the market - and i want to ensure that i'm going to live another Year to plant my crops, then i will buy a derivative contract against whatever i'm growing wheat or whatever excuse me, and so, if, by the time it comes for me to sell my crops everything's fine, that's just an insurance cost cost of doing business. No big deal.

If, however, something bad happens now, i've guaranteed my income, that's a legitimate use for a derivative, but in the 90s wall street taking over the derivative markets. Now there are derivatives on everything and you can never convert it into the underlying asset and when i had done some studies there, the last time that i did this there were 1.48 quadrillion in notional value derivatives. Oh my gosh right now. That is simply the value that wall street has put on those contracts.

It does not reflect the real value at risk and the biz says that and the imf says that and the fdic says that and the fed says everybody says that so it's well admitted that that's just the value that wall street has put on the contracts. What's really the value at risk when that puppy explodes and that's really our death now wow wow, so what okay? So if, if the there's a manipulation in the gold market, what what should people do i mean like i mean well, how does silver compare? How does bitcoin compare how do commodities, like even steel, compare how do these other things compare? Well, let's talk about commodities first uh like steel and copper and those things and those are manufacturing metals. So, therefore, you need to have a bro, a vibrant economy, to have that demand right when we're talking about cryptocurrencies. You know really that too is purely a wall.

Well, these days, especially a wall street driven market where they're incorporating those cryptocurrencies, but i and i can see some use cases - it is really easy to transfer money from. You know america to russia or china or wherever it's easier to send it over. You don't have to ship, it like you'd have to do with gold or even with silver. However, we have it's really the blockchain technology that has more value, and i really fail to see that the central bank will go.

You know we've had this great run. Couple hundred years, it's your turn. So while i do know that crypto currencies um and i would say really, their central banks are going in with central bank digital currencies, cbdc's yeah um that is still in play. That does not have a very long history.

I i don't really think it was a coincidence that bitcoin was born in january of 2009 and they started the heavy-duty qe in march of 2009 and the nsa came out with a white paper in. I think it was 96 1996 on how to create a mint talking about developing the cryptocurrencies, so you know i i could certainly be wrong. This is my opinion um, but i do think that the cryptocurrencies were created to get us used to working in the digital realm so that it would easier for the governments to transfer our habits from just cryptocurrencies to cbtc's programmable money, interesting exactly what they are. So this gold and silver are proven over time and they're physical.

If you don't hold it, you don't own it and your perception is not relevant in a court of law plus all of those other assets that we talked about have limitations on where they are used. These don't these are used in every single aspect of the global economy. They therefore have the broadest base of demand and they've never gone to zero currencies. Always fiat currencies always go to zero and we're not a big fan of like the uh etfs, like uh, iau or gld, for gold or whatever.

No, because all you really have are shares of a trust you don't have access to the underlying gold and that trust was developed to mimic the spot. The manipulated spot market movement i see and with silver they change the prospectus because and silver is ridiculous. At 26 or 25 bucks an ounce, it's ridiculous, because they can't they had to change the prospectus on slv because they could not get silver to create the baskets. To create the shares, so if you read the prospectus, it tells you yeah, it doesn't have to really reflect the true price.

It's just going to mimic whatever that, whatever yeah, so you know you if it's intangible, you could create as much of it as you want, especially if it benefits the powers that be, but with this stuff, no there's there's a finite amount of it and when it's Coming off the market, it's not going back on the market again, and so even the choices that we used to have, we don't have them anymore. So, thank goodness and and so one thing that really caught my attention was: was you saying uh rising gold prices? Is a sign of a failing currency and that that maybe it would make sense to try to manipulate the value of gold down, at least in wall street's eyes to make it seem like the dollar is? Okay, don't worry nothing to see here? Can you speak a little bit more more to that, like is, is that like, if you own gold, should you be looking at that as like hey, you know, i'm gon na have a bit here, i'm not so worried about the daily price fluctuations or whatever it's Like my emergency fund, like how do you allocate this in a portfolio? Well, okay, first of all, since a hundred percent of the time all assets go to the fundamental value, you have to determine what the fundamental value is, and i could tell you on a minimum basis, because this is how they reset a currency is against gold. As the primary currency metal that the minimum that it would go to, if they did the reset today - because i just ran these numbers a couple weeks ago - would be thirteen thousand five hundred bucks per okay so with spot at like 19, whatever 100 yeah huge bargain. So i do not care about the daily fluctuations, because i am not a traitor, just like the queen of england, and this may make you laugh, but the queen of england does not even know how much her crown jewels are and her gold is because it doesn't Matter they always have value and the more of this funny money that gets printed the higher.

That number goes. So if you look at what happened in venezuela, who has reset done an overnight reset so far, three times, that's usually about how many times that happens as a currency is going through hyperinflation, but it can certainly happen more or or it can certainly happen less, but Overnight after they suppressed it and suppressed it, it went up over 3 500 percent wow wow. Now, how are you diversifying your portfolio, then i mean with this inversion of the yield curve. Is it is it what like real estate, crypto gold, silver stocks allocations of these? How do you fan it out: food, water, energy, security, barter ability, wealth preservation, community and shelter, so that is what i convert these things that i earn sure into with a huge my biggest allocation to to gold, okay, so also real estate.

Oh yes, definitely i mean. I but but not investment, real estate, you've got to have a place to live sure and i have a bug out property as well, which i will be. You know i am developing, so there is a time because i've also studied what happens to real estate during these periods of time, and there's your take on that. Well, i mean right now it is severely overvalued and i i am seeing signs that we have already reached the top of the market.

I know the prices are continuing to go up because we get nominally confused with numbers, but all of that is done on debt and leverage. So, depending upon what happens in the future - and i i did a piece on this - i don't know maybe two two months ago - you think after maybe three something like that on what actually happens. So you can go in and look at the specifics there but um. I can tell you this: in germany, one ounce of gold would buy an entire or 25 ounces of gold, rather would buy an entire city block buildings and all during the hyperinflation, because food becomes the single biggest issue.

So people are gon na spend whatever they can and whatever they have on food they're not going to worry so much about rent or their mortgage, and we've already seen through this covet epidemic that came out that they capped. You know they put mortgages and rent on moratorium and that's typically, what happened, they think happens during these periods. They fix prices. They say you can't go above this, so for those people that are doing investment real estate, you just better have enough gold that you could pay off the mortgage and continue to pay your property taxes and not be dependent on the rent, because it's going to be Very tough for you, if you do uh and and so what kind of downside would you see in in the stock market, for those who are holding stocks, whether that's the s p or nasdaq during recession, and and how long does that kind of downside? Last i mean: is it something that can wipe people out or how long do you project something like that lasting and how severe oh, i think it's going to be really severe this time because um, you know, there's just not much room in the balance sheet, because There's not enough confidence to give the central banks enough room in the balance sheet, and if you look at what happened from 2008 910, they really with all the money printing, they truncated, all of those losses, whether it was in real estate or in stock - and you Know with bonds when, when interest rates go up, i always use my little sterling silver chopstick.

But when interest rates go up, the principal value of the bond goes down. When interest rates go down, the principal value of the bond goes up so um. What really happened was the bonds, the interest rates were going up and the bonds were going down like that, but then they moved in and they started. The central bank started buying bonds right, they pushed the interest rates down and that's why they're between a rock and a hard place right now can't do anymore buying yeah.

They need to push the interest we're going to recession or to keep all these markets floating. They have to make it cheaper to borrow and spend, and they can't do it right now. If we go into a recession, we would see inflation go away. Would would there be a presumably no tell me what do you think not not anymore, because of where we are in the trend cycle and inflation never went away anyway.

If you go on to the federal, if maybe you can pull this up federal reserve, fred, fred, purchasing power of the consumer dollar, i mean that's. Probably my single favorite chart. If you said you can only love one chart which one is it that's the one. It's just the line that goes straight down what's going on here right, so, regardless of strong dollar or whatever exactly now, if you you see where they they have dates, because when they first created it, if you go to the left hand, side uh 13, my left 1913 right 1913, that was a dollars worth of purchasing power, and then they printed 2.4 for every dollars worth of gold that they had.

That's. Why you see that 50 dip? Then you got the roaring 20s right. You might remember that stock market real estate bubble and then in 1929 they stopped supporting allowing more credit and - and i mean there's lots of stories about it - i'd love to have a conversation with the ex-fed chair bernanke because he thinks he's an expert on this period Of time i don't think so, but uh, but you can see now the purchasing power that big, wide gray band, all the great things represent recessions. So do you know of anybody? Have you ever heard? Did you ever read in any history books where things got so much better and cheaper for people during the depression, oh gosh, so much better or cheaper for people? I i i mean i mean hope so.

Hopefully, things got cheaper for people, but i guess if people lost their jobs, it doesn't do you any good. It was a depression right and that's where we're headed way. Bigger depression is just a deeper recession right, however, that was kind of the kickoff to the end, because that's when they took the gold away from the people, so they couldn't protect their purchasing power and then, after that it was downhill. If you would go up to the date and put it, can you see where you can change the date, yeah narrow the date down more recently, maybe correct exactly what years would you like um, you could start at 2008 would be fine or you can even just Go back to the last year it looks pretty nasty yeah.

This is since 08. Here, let me get rid of myself. There we go and uh yeah. This is.

This: is since 08 consumer price index, uh, purchasing power of the consumer dollar and the u.s city average. So this is since 08, so our purchasing power has gone down from a measure of about 46.4 down to about 38.7. So what is that about 20 or so, and then just from 2020? It looks like we've gone from about a high here of around 39. All the way down to about 35.

uh so another what 15 in just the last couple years here uh and look at how much more quickly that's happening right. This is accelerated over here yeah exactly so, i know someone asked me earlier about a strong dollar. You know in a recession and oh look at how strong the dollar you know what they're talking about is one fiat currency against another fiat currency. But does that really matter to you and me no yeah! Really! Matters is going to the store and buying stuff buying food for our family, putting gas in our cars and that's what erodes the confidence that pushes us into the hyper hyperinflation and, let's keep in mind.

The only difference between inflation and hyperinflation is the speed of that inflation and, as you saw from that purchasing power chart, it's speeding up right right, yeah no kidding. So you know a lot of folks like to say well, the inflation has to happen year after year. After year for us to keep getting these high reads right: if i sell something for 100 bucks and then it's 110 - that's 10 inflation. But now i got to get you know to 121 to have another 10 inflation.

So we got to see that year after year after year after year, otherwise we have those those high base effects and maybe we'll have lower inflation. If we just stay at 110, hey we had the 10 once not seeing it again. Is that possible, or is that, is that also opium? Well, you know. Inflation in and of itself is a fiat money phenomenon.

It's not a monetary phenomenon right, so if they can keep that rate, like you saw on that chart it it looked actually when you scrolled out it looked like it wasn't moving at all right then zoomed in you could see that, yes, it continued to decline if They can keep that at two percent. They rob you of your purchasing power and your wealth, but you don't realize it and you don't complain about it when it happens more quickly like what we're experiencing then it's more noticeable, so you or to the public. Is that really a stable currency when it keeps going down, because that doesn't seem stable to me right right right? So you know it's all relative, especially think about this 1970. The average wage was 9 500 bucks, and a family of four could live on 9 500.

Bucks with one wage earner right today, what's the average wage like and it's probably a little bit higher 560 yeah, something like that right sure, and what did they? You need two wage earners, your paycheck to paycheck, and what did they stimulate anybody that made less than 150 thousand dollars a year? And i could tell you because i was there in the 70s. If you made 150 grand, you were really really rich yeah good point. My father was a developer and i don't know why this always stood in my mind, but he used to work out of the house and i remember standing in the doorway they had just my parents had just finished working with a young couple. He worked for ibm.

He was an engineer and my mother pounds her fist on the table and she goes he's a comer he's a comer. He makes 12 000 a year, oh wow yeah right and my father built a really nice house. So you know you stop and think about that. They went out every weekend i used to babysit.

For them, they'd go on vacations, they probably were able to save to educate. They had two kids to educate their kids. You know so put that in relative terms today and you can kind of see where well do we need it to go that fast, that long. That makes sense the purchasing power has absolutely eroded, but the speed will, i'm.

You know i'll i'll go 99.8. The speed is going to escalate, it's not going. The supply chains are not going to be repaired so quickly. We we here's the other piece kevin.

Here's the other piece in the 80s, when i became a stock broker. All the talk was about globalization, and i remember thinking to myself. I can see that this could be a problem, so we shipped off all the manufacturing, et cetera, et cetera well, what's been happening over the last several years has been deglobalization, bringing it back home. The trump building american, whatever exactly and now, with what's happening with the supply chains that has taken on a lot more urgency.

So it was pretty destructive on the way in it's gon na, be pretty darn destructive on the way out. Oh because a lot of folks make this argument that hey well inflation's gone down because of hey aging population technology, but big one globalization using cheaper labor. But but now, if we bring that home hey, that's that's an inflationary pressure! Yes, and if you think back to that purchasing power chart even with the globalization right, what happened to the dollar, it didn't stop going down, it didn't just go flat, it kept going down and well so you mentioned, you, don't think the supply chains are going to Be repaired is that just a way of saying not anytime soon, because you have to build factories and - and it takes time exactly exactly they dismantled our manufacturing now they have to put it back together again, and you don't do that overnight. So some folks say that maybe if there's inflation, then a company and companies have purchasing power, they can raise prices and - and maybe inflation is good for stocks.

What's your take on the argument that inflation could be good for stocks and and maybe hey you know, the stocks will just go to the moon. Well, they won't. They won't go to the moon, because nothing goes straight up um, you know in theory, and that this is the way the system has been built that yes, if the stock has purcha has the ability to raise prices, then that is an inflation hedge, except that they Are starting to get pushback macy's tried to raise prices on mattresses and, i think chairs, i don't know a couple of items and people really gave them a hard time. They had to stop raising their prices.

That's been happening not just at macy's but at other manufacturers. So when incomes - and you know you also hear how much more people are getting paid because there is a labor shortage, but inflation is running way hotter than the increase in the wages. So noah tree does not grow to the moon from the earth and the, and there are limitations to how high they can raise that up prices before people right now. People have to make a choice between putting gas in your car or food on the table.

A lot of people unfortunately have to make that choice, and we have a massive problem on a global basis, but country to country too, with hunger and starvation, because we've also taught people how to be dependent upon the grocery stores. Yeah sure we saw what happened right. Still shelves are bare if uh, if, if that aggregate or total demand goes down for for consumer goods like macy, sofas or mattresses or or whatever uh, you know buying stuff online amazon etsy whatever could that be the start of potentially inflation coming down? Or is this just money moving over to now energy and gas and you're still inflating well you're still inflating, and so there might be some deflation in those areas that a lot of corporations i mean if you go into the fred again and you look at corporate Profits i mean they are to the moon right yeah, so we've got that k-shape recovery. Well, you know.

Most people are down at the bottom of the k. Not at the top yeah you can. You could put corporate profits. I love that website.

It's probably more honest than any other federal reserve website, because who really goes and looks there, but but as nerds so uh there might be some things that lose a level of inflation because people stop buying them because they can't afford them. But there's a massive problem with what's happening in the food supply chain uh. You know fertilizer oil, all of these, that seeds, everything and we need to be a lot more independent from the system. If we're going to make sure that we can feed our families that that's been a big push for me really since 2010, that's when i bought this property and i started creating an urban farm, and so yes wow armor becoming less reliant on those supply chains.

So here's that that chart you're talking about and i'll keep myself away, corporate profits after tax and then the the iva and cca those are adjustments, uh, probably less important. To look at the adjustments more. I always like to look at the inflection points or or changes in the graph and like what you're saying here, i mean look at this explosion in corporate profits and corporate profits. Almost i mean relatively did nothing between 2012 and 19 and then the pandemic comes in.

It's here's, the money train, exactly that's exactly right and you know you think, there's not price gouging tells you there's a lot of price gouging, that's good! You know, but humans, people, the public they we all have our limitations on. You know what we're gon na do and and i'll be honest with you, regardless of how much money you have, i don't remember what it was, but the other day something came in and i could have afforded it if i wanted it, but the price was just Stupid it was just stupid and i said i'm not going to do that. So, whether you have money or you don't have money, i think we all have our limitations on what we either have the ability to do or what we're willing to do either one and able and willing exactly you know. I mean i don't even remember what it was i could have afforded it, but i was like no.

No, so what you're saying is all in on tesla stock yeah. I probably wouldn't do that. I i personally do not and i'm an ex-stock broker and i'm a next banker, so i have a and i'm a techie, which means i'm not with the technology, but i know how to read the technical language of the market. Sure i don't own one stock.

I don't own one bond, i don't i don't own one fiat money product. I have cash because that's our tool, a barter, but i have a level of cash that i must maintain because i'm running a business and i want to make sure i can pay everybody and i have a lot of cash out of the system. I keep a minimal amount inside the system. Wow wow got it.

What what about uh fears are like uh oil? What's what's your take on uh, you know this. How long is this gon na last? Is it all just a war related? Is this something? Is this gon na keep sapping consumer purchasing power through the recession and look at that chart yeah no kidding, because you know i mean it used to be 20 bucks a barrel right and then, when we went into the 2008 crisis it went up. I think to 140 bucks a barrel and then it came down, but it still never went back to where it was prior to that crisis. So you know, and oil there's a finite amount of oil too.

So all of this talk of moving away from the system before they built the infrastructure. If you had there's one that says max up by where you did the the yeah on the other side of that there you go there, you go. Here's your brent crude uh! So your european oil look at that over time going all the way back to uh. We got 87 on this chart here to now yeah wow, and so you know i mean it was a lot lower before we went into 2008.

yeah right and then, of course remember it went into negative territory there for a heartbeat. That was something wasn't it something, but that's a trading vehicle. I mean the whole. The problem with everything is that, because it's been the banks that have been controlling everything since 1971, the whole world, the whole every asset has been financialized, in other words, turned into a financial product, whether it's something to bet on like real estate.

Exactly and then it's handed over to traders and that that are able to borrow at basically zero less than the government can borrow, which generally says to me, but hey cause who's paying for it. And you know i wanted to short treasury bonds the other day and i called up jp morgan and i said, hey uh. How much is the borrow if i want to short treasuries, so they look pull up the ticker tlt, all right, uh. That says here the borrow rate is negative: 0.58 and i'm like you will pay me half a percent to short treasuries right now, they're like yeah, okay.

Does that make any logical sense at all? No because aussie i was prepared to pay to short treasuries because i knew the rates were going to go up. I mean i thought they were going to go there but anyway, ah, that's weird, so you know yeah i mean you can you can? Actually, if you, if you look at the patterns, i'm huge on patterns and if you look at the patterns on the graphs you can see when all of this you can see the transitions whenever this happens and that's why you can see the currency's life cycle and And no we're at the end, so you got to do something to protect yourself so that all your wealth doesn't evaporate into a hyperinflationary mess yikes and that's what gold and silver about. So i i want to just pull up the the ten 10-2 here, which uh is just inverted. You know i i, when i'm gon na pull this up, and i wan na know like your your thesis.

Are you thinking next summer for for issues uh? You know. Here's here's just for the viewers watching here's the the spread between the 10 year and the two year when it falls below roughly the white line i threw on there uh i kind of missed it. I put it at negative one basis point, but whatever roughly, where that white line is uh, this is the inversion. So we've had the inversion over here in in the late 80s and then a recession, the inversion over here before the dot-com bubble, and then recession then version over here before the 08 bubble and then recession.

Briefly, i believe very normally. We briefly inverted here in 2019 and then we did actually have the covered recession, but people are wondering like did this, just delay that recession i mean here. We are again so so we're singing this song again it doesn't. It doesn't look good, i mean it makes me nervous, but but i don't know what should people make of this? They should get ready.

I mean you know. When do you want to be prepared prepared for a crisis if you wait until you're in the middle of a crisis? Like you look at what's happening in russia with the population, the russian central bank has halted their gold purchases because the demand from their citizens as the ruble is being decimated, has i mean it's in a frenzy, and so gold in terms of rubles are ridiculous. Right now right, so when do you want to get ready? You want to get ready before you need to be ready and personally i'd rather be ten years too early than even one second, too late, because that's when you lose every single choice and that's what i make of this you know. Do i think that the recession could hit in the summer? Maybe you know i mean it can happen any time, because the fed is already way behind the eight ball and making mistake after mistake after mistake and telling you everything is fine because that's their job, they can't come out and tell you what they really think.

Then you'd make different choices. That's a good point, so uh, okay, how? How can people learn more about your perspective on this uh and - and you have a youtube channel - tell us a little bit about that and and your website itm training. Well, you know: itm trading is a physical gold and silver dealer. That means that anything you get from from us.

Unless you do it inside of an ira, we're shipping it to you, you're going to hold it you're, going to own it and run no counterparty risk, but really we execute a strategy. That's based upon my studies of currency life cycles and it's a strategy that i created for myself actually before i even went to itm, because when i went to itm is when i knew we were at the end in 2002. So i've been there for almost 20 years june 28th, and so i knew that it was at the end, because that's what the formulas told me and they're smarter than i am so you know i listen to them uh, but everybody that works with us is. Is we help them develop their own personal strategy that is like mine, but then tweaked, for whatever your personal goals are circumstances? I mean you're at a different stage in your life than i am, so it's going to require a little different planning.

But if you want to see my work, then you go to the youtube channel, so you can go to youtube and just just put in itm trading or you can search by name and i'm pretty sure. It'll come up and i um do not publish as much as you do, but i do publish like three times or so a week, and i do these interviews and actually where we just opened up a new youtube channel uh to address the rest of my mantra. So the food water, energy security, community and shelter piece where we're focusing on that. So on the main youtube the itm channel.

We focus on. I try and teach you how to see these patterns so that you can make educated choices. That puts your best interest first, and i give you links just like you pulled those up. I give you the links to all my research so that you can do your own due diligence, because i don't really want you to take anybody's word for anything.

I want you to really come to your own conclusions, uh. So it's easy for you! Okay, you don't have to research it you can just click on the link and you can go there and read to you have a different opinion rock and roll luchico. I can't tell you that it's wrong right. That's awesome! That's a good point! Yeah! Well! So i've linked both of these down below your youtube channel and itm trading.

Anything else that that you want to add this has been very enlightening and it's you know something we got to pay attention to. This inverted yield curve and some risks ahead. What anything else that we missed! You know i mean we've we've there's so much that's going on. I mean the there are patterns that you see every single time you transition from one currency system to the next and i'm seeing all of those patterns right now and you need to be aware.

I mean that's really if you've been listening to my work for years. I would have said you know there is always a war. I don't know where it's going to start, maybe the middle east, maybe somewhere else, but there's always a war. There's always an issue around energy.

You know you go back to the 71. You have the vietnam war, you had the oil embargo, you had the civil rights movement, we've got a lot of civil rights that are going on right now and and others so learn what the patterns look like and when you see them, please believe them don't go Into denial, oh, the dollar could never go away. They know this, they knew it when they created the system. They know it today that if they can keep things as normal, looking for you as possible, you will not realize that any change has happened when in reality.

So much has changed and so much is changing no time to procrastinate. Don't stop! You know, stop the dollar's not going to gain its value. You saw the chart it hasn't in all that time. It's not suddenly magically going to happen now.

Get physical, gold and silver in your possession have a plan make sure you have food water, energy, security, barter ability, wealth preservation. Community is probably the biggest key um and shelter because we need to come together. That's why i do these interviews. This is community for me.

We need to come together to help each other. This is not going to be fun for anybody. Yikes, yikes, well, lynette. Thank you so much for this uh for anybody watching.

Thank you so much for watching. If you found this helpful, make sure to share the video check out, uh lynette's, youtube channel and her website link down below lynette stand by for a second everybody else. Thank you. So much and we'll see you in the next video thanks.

So much bye.