Hey guys, it's sasha, as tesla stock, went to yet another all-time high price. Yesterday, a lot of investors who didn't invest when it was half the price earlier this year suddenly began paying attention and the question that people ask over and over is am i too late? Has the trainer left the station? Is it too late to buy tesla stock, and this applies to everything? This is a very common problem in investing not just with tesla stock, but any company that has recently seen its share price grow, especially if that growth has been quite fast. You go and look at the chart and you wonder, has the share price peaked? What if it's going to come down - and you also feel annoyed that other people got in way before you did and therefore you kind of missed out on all those massive profits and they are showing you to them, while they're describing their portfolio. And this is the investing fantasy of being too late in this video i'll, explain why this is the wrong way to think about investing, and i will also explain what the right way to decide if you are too late to invest is because there is a right Way sometimes it is too late to invest and there is only one way to make that determination, but just before i jump into all the details, if you live in the uk, australia or new zealand, you can get a free share from steak worth up to 150.

If you use my link in the description and you'll also help out the channel, because i get a small commission for sending you their way stake is an investing platform that i personally use, and it is a great way of investing in u.s stocks at a very Cheap cost - all you have to do to get your free share, is to sign up using the link below and make an initial deposit of 50 pounds or 50 all right. So how do you decide if you should invest in this stock if you're already too late? Well, the answer is very simple. I know it can be very hard sometimes, but the key is to do your best to disassociate your emotions when making investment decisions from the maths that you're using to make them and the way that the price chart looks in the past is just part of that. Emotional game that you are playing because, in the grand scheme of things, those charts of what happened to the stock price in the past are not relevant to anything.

When you make an investing decision, you should only really care about two numbers. Remember you are not trading. You are investing the current share price and the target share price are the only two things that matter. The target share price is the price that you think the share price should be right.

Now it is the present value of the stock that you think is fair. It is the number that you need to have in your head every single time you make an investment, because if the share price is below that number, you now have an upside. You think that on the balance of probabilities and it could go either way, but on the balance on average, the share price will go up over time. But if the share price is above that fair price number, then your expectation is that the stock is overvalued.

According to your maths, and therefore that you think that that stock price will probably go down, the target price is literally the limit number for you, you might consider buying. If the current share price is below that target, and you will sell that stock. If you have it, if the price is above it, so if you only care about the current share price and the target share price notice that the share price from one week ago is not part of that consideration, it is not part of the equation. It is irrelevant, let's use tesla as an example, i have a 3 000 price target for tesla.

Some people might say it's way too high and i'm sure i'm going to get some comments on that. I personally don't think it is. I have a model, and that is what i have in it today. The share price for tesla is one thousand and twenty four dollars as i'm recording this video.

So my math says that there is a hundred and ninety two percent gap to the fair value on the stock. According to my personal valuation last week, that gap was higher, maybe more like 250 percent, but that makes absolutely no difference to my decision making. I look at the potential upside every time and i think that the stock will materialize a large chunk of it over the next few years. In the case of tesla and 192 is substantial.

It is a very, very high number very few stocks out there have a valuation where i feel there is that sort of a present value upside. So if i am making a decision on whether or not to buy a tesla stock, this is how i make it. Imagine going to a supermarket and seeing your favorite chocolate bar on discount instead of the three dollars that it normally costs. You can go and buy it for just one dollar.

Do you a buy the chocolate bar because it is one dollar, and that is an epically low price, or do you b not buy it, because you just remembered that last week you could have bought it for 80 cents, and now it is that much more expensive, Because that is what's happening right now with tesla stock and you might as well shoot yourself in the foot, because the price went up here is one consideration that you might have. Let's say that you are in that supermarket and that chocolate bar is one dollar, but then there is another chocolate bar next to it. The other chocolate bar is 1.50, but it normally sells for six dollars. So now you have a decision to make the other chocolate bar has an even bigger discount.

It is selling at 75 off. Do you want to buy the first chocolate bar at 66 percent off or the other one at 75 percent off? Maybe you think that the first chocolate bar is so good that the discount won't last very long and there's only a short window in which you can buy that price. Maybe the second chocolate bar has had some bad press recently and somebody said it's unhealthy in a news article and so you'll probably be able to pick it up at a big discount. Maybe for a while.

Maybe both chocolate bars will go up in price and you'll feel that you have never had an opportunity to buy that six dollar chocolate bar this cheap ever again. But what if the shop starts a massive sale? The very next day, unexpectedly, out of the blue and both of those chocolate bars, suddenly become half the price that they already are right now will you feel like a complete mug, because you bought them for one dollar yesterday, when you can buy them for 50 cents? Today, this is literally the decision that you are making every day when investing in stocks which stocks have the biggest potential upsides. How long do you think it will take for that upside to come through? How long do you have to buy that upside? How fast do you think, will the stock price increase? Will there be a market crash that will half the share price and when you make the simple analogy with a shop, you probably will notice that your decision making in your head is considerably more clear and it is considerably more logical. It is just a bit more obvious if you see your favorite chocolate bar selling for one dollar that normally costs three dollars, you are going to go and buy it.

You do not care that it cost 80 cents. Yesterday. You also don't really care that it might cost 50 cents tomorrow, because you can still get great value when you buy that chocolate, because you know that in a few months, when you go to that same shop again, that chocolate bar is there for three dollars, or Maybe it's going to be even more expensive and when we make our investing decisions, we tend to just over complicate things and get stuck in the cycle of what ifs and over complications. We invent complex strategies and we listen to people on twitter who say that they heard a rumor that that chocolate bar is going to get a bigger discount tomorrow.

So maybe you should wait, while some other guy on youtube is telling you that the chocolate bar is about to get a whole lot more expensive, so you need to buy now. Some people try to trade they'll, go and borrow a whole load of money. They're going to buy a crate of these chocolates at one dollar, hoping to sell them tomorrow for 1.20, when the price goes up, but for long-term investors. Like me, all of these games are not particularly interesting because, at the end of the day, it all just comes down to two numbers.

What is the price of that chocolate bar right now, and what do i think is a fair price for it. Just the same as with stocks, then i have to consider some qualitative factors expected timelines news. They anticipate, etc, etc. But none of these factors involve me looking at what the share price was last week or the week before or last month or whatever, because i am not here trying to trade on some kind of trading pattern, because i drew some arbitrary lines on a chart and I'm hoping that nobody else disagrees with my lines because they have some slightly different lines.

None of that makes any actual sense, because just one trading day ago, tesla was trading at an all-time high of 909 dollars and if you follow your emotions waiting for the price to drop because it's an all-time high, there's no way that you should go by now. It's too expensive, you would have missed out on one of the most insane gains. One day gains that any stock has ever had as tesla went up 12.7 in one day yesterday to 1024, but at the same time tesla could have very easily fallen. Maybe it'll fall today after i make this video, maybe it'll fall later this week or next week.

I personally do not really care, because i'm not here for the short term swings news. Emotions and sentiment play a massive role in a price fluctuations in the short term. During the day between days during the weeks in the long term, though, none of that matters numbers always win. If you found this video useful, please don't forget to smash the like button for the youtube algorithm.

Thank you so much for watching and as always i'll see you guys later, you.