Hey everyone me kevin here: do you know what december january may and july all have in common they're all months that i went on vacation and crashed the stock market and guess where i am today um? Well folks, we just broke the 280 line on the qqq crypto's. Absolutely getting rinsed, especially as d5 platform celsius decides to pause withdrawals. That's always a good sign. The 10-year treasury, just skyrocketed 3.3, which is going to smash real estate, especially those mortgage rates, expect to see those skyrocket to the highest levels tomorrow and stocks are dropping so hard.

The tick index which tracks positive, minus and negatives is negative. Two thousand a level we haven't hit since september of 2011., so what the heck is happening? Well, let's talk about it because there's a lot happening, we'll start with the fed repricing the federal reserve's meeting starts tomorrow. It ends wednesday, with a release on rates at 2 pm and a press conference at 2, 30 p.m. We're expecting two wheel.

Well, i should say we were expecting two 50 basis, point hikes in june and july and maybe a 25 basis point sort of pause in september. Well now the market is repricing all of this, and it explains exactly why the stock market is falling because the higher terminal fed funds rate we have the more the market starts pricing in the risk that we're going to have an earnings recession while at the same Time the federal reserve is tightening too much potentially leading to the federal reserve's monetary policy, crushing an economy, that's already slowing to a halt. Now the 250 basis point hikes and 125 basis, point hike has already been repriced. Markets are now not pricing in, but potentially fearing a rug pull by the federal reserve, like 100 bp hike to reduce inflation, that's still spreading in broad-based categories everywhere, as based on our friday's report.

But markets are not pricing in a rug poll like 100 bp, but they're, fearing that. Instead, though, we are pricing in now 175 basis points of hikes by september. That means the market now thinks we're going to get two 75 basis. Point hikes not 250 basis.

Point hikes, followed by a 50 basis, point hike, not a 25 basis, point hike. We have a 32 percent chance based on markets, readings that the first of these hikes will be on wednesday and a 50 chance that it happens by july and then obviously the assumption is that somehow this combination will have happened to where we have 275 bp hikes, Which is the which will be the first time, we'll have a 75 basis point hike since 1994 sometime by september. Now the cool thing about 1994. Is it's one of the times that the federal reserve was actually able to achieve a soft landing, but that is they were able to raise rates without crashing the market, but don't bother looking what inflation was in the mid 90s when they actually had these hikes? There was very little this increases the chances of those fed policy mistakes.

But beyond that, oh my gosh, we just had something happen again. That's also a very bad omen, but first i just have to shout out our sponsor today, public. If you want to get a free stock worth all the way up to one thousand dollars, make sure you go to metkevin.com public, that's medken.com public and you could use a brokerage that does not use payment for order flow, and it's a social community that you can Follow me on at me: kevin go to medkevin.com public and get up to one thousand dollars as long as you deposit some amount of money, all right. Folks, let's talk about yields, so we know that the treasury yields at about 3.3 right now.

Terminal rates are being priced in about four percent, the five-year break-even rate. Fortunately just inflected down. We were down about 14 percent from its peak in march and now we're down 16 percent. Thank goodness, we want to see those break.

Events come down because again we don't want to see the markets of markets. Expectations of inflation become unanchored because then we're just literally screwed, but guess what is back the inversion? The inversion of the yield curve this morning at 4 am the bond market plunged to a point where the two-year treasury yield had inverted with a 10-year. Once again, the last time we had negative like this was on april 1st, which felt like a joke. It had inverted for 36 hours this morning we hit negative 1.814 and we inverted for about 18 minutes.

That's much shorter, but we're also sitting on the edge of inverting again we'll see what the fed does and what it pushes yields to do. But anyway, the yield on the two years are therefore well at least, were therefore this morning, higher than the 10 years signaling. That markets are trying to raise as much cash as possible and they're doing so by dumping, the two-year bonds, more so than the 10 years. Increasing the yields for the two-year more so than the 10-year all that cash could potentially be obviously more valuable in the short-term, as asset valuations.

Plunge now. Remember that the federal reserve meeting is uh starting tomorrow, and so markets presumably are going to be a little bit light with purchasing power. Before the fed meeting, though remember one of the lows that we had in march was uh march, 8th and march 14th, literally a week and a day before the federal reserve meeting, and then we had a three week rally after the march meeting on the 15th. The it's march - hopefully we can have something like that again, but then again that might just be opium, so i'm obviously still recommending cash lots and lots of patience, no debt and then buy, as you feel, comfortable quality companies that you know are going to survive a Recession and a potential earnings recession which morgan stanley and goldman sachs say we are not pricing in an earnings recession.

We're just pricing in that kevin's, 50 off discount code on his programs on building your long-term wealth, especially with real estate, is the best deal he's ever had so check that out in the link down below, but no morgan, stanley and goldman sachs are truly saying. We are potentially pricing in a recession, but not an earnings recession. This is really disastrous and it follows the consumer sentiment missed on friday, which was measured before we realized that inflation actually went up again so much, which actually means that consumer sentiment could extend lower before it goes back up. That's scary.

Now, of course, you've got stanley drunken miller, the wharton provider - oh well. Actually, no, no you've got jeremy siegel, the wharton professor suggesting now's the time to start deploying some of your cash, because the deals are just so good. What are you doing? Are you buying the dip or is morgan stanley and goldman sachs potentially correct that an earnings recession could mean a lot more pain is ahead. Let me know what you think in the comments down below and check out public and links on building your wealth.