So how long will inflation take to go down? Could we be facing a 10-year process to actually get inflation down? And what is the potential that Kathy Wood is correct that we might see substantial deflation next year? Let's analyze both of those. So first, this morning Barons wrote a piece and suggested that historically it takes about 10 years and then they clarified not a typo, 10 years to bring inflation down to under three percent once it rises above eight percent. Well, we've been over eight percent for at least four months now, if not even longer. And so a lot of folks are saying we could be in for a very long battle against inflation. In fact, we could spend the entire next decade under tight monetary policies where we have a tight fed, one that raises rates high and stays aggressively High Removing the optimism the market is feeling now that, oh, we're gonna go right back to reducing interest rates and enthusiasm. Cheap money and cheap borrowing abilities. This is exactly the kind of downside that when we talk about in our course member live streams. You should be out of margin and you should be prepared to weather the storm for the long term. This is why. Because yeah, the fact of the matter is historically it takes a while for inflation to come down. Now if you look at the last period where we had substantially High inflation. obviously the Paul Volcker era, the Federal Reserve had this mindset known as opportunistic disinflation and basically what they thought was okay. Look, we've raised rates to about 20 percent to kill inflation that was about 18 percent at its peak and they succeeded in the next year to Bringing inflation down over half to well under 10 percent. And essentially what the Federal Reserve did is they lowered rates following inflation down. but they really didn't squeeze inflation down. In fact, they had a policy of you know what, we don't need to rush to get inflation back to two percent. Let's just wait and take opportunities when they present themselves elves like Market crashes or whatever to let inflation naturally fall off a cliff. And that's exactly what it did. Except in that last cycle, it took 15 years to bring inflation all the way down. It took the first year to have it and it took another 15 years to bring it to the two percent level which is really, really slow and is not what markets are pricing in today. And this does set up the concern that well wait a minute. The Federal Reserve this time around compared to back in the 80s is much more committed that to the idea that we will stop at nothing until we get rates to two percent. And so this idea that well, if inflation takes longer to bring down and you have a Fed that has committed to Bringing inflation to two percent, This idea combined creates this scenario of we could just be in another bear Market rally and we could be in a situation where starting to speculate now on bullish call options. There's a lot of short covering that's obviously happening in the market as as soon as is that CPI report came out, we saw an insane amount of short covering. But but a lot of people are also piling on new shorts because they're like wait a minute. Sure, we've just rallied up, but we're rallying up at like a three to four standard deviation move. This isn't sustainable. Let's just use this rally up as an opportunity to place bets again. that will probably leg down again. And so I think in this first half of the video the word of caution is be careful, don't go into margin and don't assume that it's over, because if the FED does stick with their two percent policy framework and the FED doesn't utilize opportunistic disinflation which is just a fancy way of saying have patience, then we're going to be stuck with an aggressive fed for a while. Even though the FED may not be raising rates anymore starting in Q1 of next year. you know, maybe after the March meeting, we don't get any more rate hikes. The longer the FED stays where they are without actually reducing rates, the more upset markets are going to get. Remember, markets are expecting the FED to go negative with rates that is turned to the downside like like let's reduce rates a little bit as soon as May of 2023 I Don't know if that's realistic. So what does Barclays tell us and how do they paint the other side of the picture? Well, let's talk about that. Keep in mind if you haven't heard yet I've got really great news. The Elite Hustlers of course got rid of its monthly fee thanks to your suggestions. And if you want to grow your top line income, whether you're an employee, you're working for a company, you're looking for a new job, or you're an entrepreneur, or you're an employee looking for a side hustle, this program's for you. We go through everything from taxation for businesses, business structures, accounting receipts, how to best protect yourself from a liability standpoint, insurances, and of course growth strategies and even ideas to help you build a business that you may not have even thought was something that you could do. Check out that Elite Hustler's course. Of course you can bundle it up with the other amazing courses we have like the zero to millionaire real estate course, the Stocks and Psychology of Money course. These are phenomenal programs. Both those those courses I just mentioned have a huge new lecture drop coming out in December which is going to be really, really cool because we're going even deeper to prepare for 2023 with both fundamental analysis big deep Dives coming and real estate which is going to be huge for 2023. So what is Barclays Tell us? Okay, well so to contrast what Barons was talking about this morning, Barclays has a pretty interesting piece. They talk about how Global inflation is clearly decelerating and they're very optimistic about the abiding Xi Jinping meeting coming up as it could potentially give us some insights into the relaxation of covet zero policies. But in addition to that, Barclays has this really interesting argument that not only are we essentially now at Peak headline inflation in that the forecast is essentially average down here, the Us being this darker Blue Line right here, with the UK seeing a little bit of a potential Peak still coming up ahead though. we're gonna see how that end ends up happening with this budget release that we're getting this week from the United Kingdom. But when we look at core inflation, it looks like across the board where or at least Barclays is expecting mostly inflation to rotate down stable inflation over in Japan, but a rotation down of inflation throughout many of the Uh economies here. whether that's Europe uh, the United Kingdom or the United States. But what they mentioned here I thought was very interesting and I wonder if they're almost borrowing from this Fed phrase of opportunistic disinflation and what they're now calling it, which I think is quite interesting. Barclays here suggests in our view, October's estimates show early signs that many of these sustained disinflationary influences that we have been anticipating for some time are taking shape. Now this is interesting. remember: deflation means your 100 widget is now actually selling for potentially 99. That's deflation, right? Disinflation means you're one 100 widget went to a hundred and ten dollars and now it's trading or selling. Let's say, for a hundred and eleven dollars, 111, There we go. So this would be one percent inflation, whereas this was ten percent inflation. So a lower inflation rate is disinflation. Anyway, they suggest that there's this potential for a sustained disinflation taking shape, and they point to not only easing supply chain pressures, but Goods demand reseeding going down to, uh, pre-pandemic norms. And these declines appear to be taking shape already in the last CPI report, which is particularly evident in things like used cars, household appliances and durables and furniture. And they suggest that these decelerations could be so meaningfully that we actually end up missing quite well. To the downside on inflationary expectations or just inflation in General on the next CPI reports. Now what I think is interesting is if we hop on over to let's say the April 2020 C Pi report, this is the PDF I have. What I want you to do with me is just look for where we get three negatives in a row. Like for example, three negatives in a row. Right here we got a photography. three negatives in a row. but you really don't have a lot. Here's computer software. Uh, here you've got some three negatives in a row. Telephones and smartphones. This is back in April of 2022. But really, you see very very few of these three negatives in a row here. and that's from the April report. And then I have some more data on sort of the April report that I've thrown in here. This is back from April when we're making a lot of videos on inflation really taking off Here you go. you've got a little bit more here. Communication: Recreation video audio, but otherwise mostly positive numbers. Like the regions over here, everything is positive inflation right? And so I thought Okay, well let me look at the October report just to see if I can see what the uh, the Barclays folks are seeing. So the way you do this is you look up here and you want to look at the right three because these are your seasonally adjusted percent changes and what I did is I put a green box around any time we had a two or three negative months in a row. So beef we got two negative months in a row. but I get really excited when we get three in a row. so let's keep looking and you notice there actually aren't that many so far. We're in the food section and food is pretty dang positive, but it gets better once we get out of food. So we get out of food over here and look what we get over here. Window coverings Negative: two in a row: Furniture Bedding, bedroom, furniture, living room furniture, appliances, laundry equipment. Uh, you jump over here. You got non-electric cookware, tableware, apparel, men's suits, boys apparel, women's apparel, boys girls clothes, watches, set, used cars and trucks. See that again right here. The Negative: For three months in a row, and while you still are surrounded by mostly positive items here, it is nice that we are actually starting to see a lot of negatives on that right column right you can clearly see on the right side. There are a lot of negatives here. Again, three negatives in a row. Another three right here for smartphones, information technology. So comparing this to April and starting to actually see some minuses on the right side. Maybe Barclays has a point. Maybe hey, we are actually potentially at the beginning of seeing regular declines in how quickly, uh, inflation is accelerating, and maybe that's actually a reason to be bullish and optimistic. The problem is, as the Federal Reservist told us, one report is too little to get super optimistic about, so we have to be very, very careful that we're not getting overly or excessively bullish on just one report. and this is where I would just urge caution that you want to stay away from margin. One report is not enough to tell us to go on a margin. Imagine we rally between now and the next jobs report at the beginning of December First Friday of December or the CPI report and then all of a sudden you're big on margin and then we we have a bad inflation report in December and we dog leg to the downside. Again, get wiped out. Last thing we want to do is get wiped out. This game is all about surviving. You don't have to beat your friends and making the best or greatest returns, You just have to survive and get through the tough times and use them as an opportunity to build your quantity. So what's my take? Well, I'm doing exactly what I'm saying. I'm making as much money as possible. That's why I'm launching the Elite Hustlers course to teach you also how you can make as much money as possible because now is the time to make money so you can invest and then you can really watch it grow. When we go back to Boom time of course I Personally lean a little bit more towards this. inflation will end up going away and I will end up having a very bullish decade. But we've got to get through the pain first and that's what we're experiencing right now. Good luck.