Well, J pound Just flipped the script as a big old Merry Christmas to you. Yes, merry Christmas And happy Holidays to you from your friend, Jpow and his buddies at the Federal Reserve That's literally what we got here. Now we have to understand the longer term implications of this. So I'm going to start with the longer term implications and then I'm going to talk about what Jpow just said.

But this is going to flip expectations. It is a big deal. Look, let's be clear here: there are a Lot. A Lot.

A Lot. A Lot of money market assets sitting on the sidelines. Total assets in money markets have absolutely exploded. They've exploded.

As you can see by this chart right here, they've exploded because of all the massive crazy money printing. They were somewhere right around. before Covid, they were somewhere right around 4 triles. Uh, they're sitting somewhere around 6.2 is right now in Money Market funds.

And that's money markets that doesn't even count the money that's sitting in bonds ready to dive back into stocks. This, in my opinion, is the signal. Drome Powell Today for the first time, suggested we are at or near the peak. He's basically softly trying to say we're done unless something dramatically changes.

The FED is done. That is the clearest signal you could possibly get to buy treasuries from. Jerome Powell whether you want to use that signal or lot on you not personal advice. Uh, the 10-year treasury down 16 basis points Right now? The 2-year down 25 basis points.

That's great. That is a normalizing of the yield curve. And if you don't know what any of that means, it just means stons up. It's a good thing.

And Jal Powell Seems and the FED seem convinced that we're not Actually certainly not in a recession right now, but also not necessarily heading to a recession. Yes, Could there be a recession? Yes. But Jome Powell made it clear we're not seeing any any evidence that right now we are in a recessionary territory. Instead, what we are seeing is that all three levels of inflation are trending down.

Goods Inflation. He had a great quote. He's like I don't know. Maybe people aren't buying stuff anymore because people bought enough stuff and now they don't want more stuff.

That was a quote anyway. Goods Disinflation Housing Disinflation Core Services Disinflation. It's starting and the FED is finally waking up to realize we don't want to overtighten. As a result, what do we have an over 60% chance that we're going to get Rate: Cuts In February Boom.

Number One: Number two: 10 years about to drop below 4% This is very bullish for stocks. It's also bullish for bond prices. Yes, Next, what does it mean? It's probably going to start the transition and this is the euphoric rally I Talked about. We made a video about this and I warned that this could come if you're not joining me.

By the way, every day the market is open, we talk about this every day. Totally free. We got poverty chat on it's great. Uh, everybody can join and uh it's great every day the market is open at 5:25 We cover the market open and you can ask your questions whatever you want.

Uh, but I I Made this video on December 8th called warning Stock Market Euphoria is coming there it is. Warning Stock Market Euphoria is coming on December 8th and I talk about how when the signals that U-turn as soon as we hit Peak the market will probably go euphoric. absolutely euphoric. which is fantastic because it's a way of Jerome pal saying, look, we've done enough, We've put people through enough Hell now let's actually try to prop the economy up again by letting asset prices go up.

Let people get richer again, let people make more money again and then they can keep going and buying stuff for the economy. Now what's very interesting which a lot of people missed. He was asked, hey man, but prices are still high and he's like, that's true and you know what we're doing about prices still being high. You ready for this? This was priceless.

Did you catch it What he said, what is Jerome Powell doing in response to prices being high? Well, real wages just went positive. so hopefully you'll make more money to be able to pay more. Yes, that's basically literally what he said. When he was asked about prices being high, he said, well, the good news is wages are going up so that is true.

We just barely went positive in real wages, but it is a way of the Federal Reserve saying hey, um, don't expect us to bring prices down. We are going to turn the money printer on well before we need to to make sure we don't go into a recession. And when Jpow sticks this soft Landing I'm putting a statue the guy in my front yard. So what else? What else did he actually say? So economic activity expanded at strong Pace We held rates stable.

Inflation has eased over the past year. Uh, they added the phrase any as to whether or not they would raise rates at all anymore. And then of course in the Q&A he suggested they're done. Uh, he suggested that uh, housing has flattened out.

We're seeing a lot of rents down across the country year-over year. certainly at least flat. Uh, so slightly down or flat. Very very common to see across the country.

does indicate he believes we are at or above. Peak I Think this is a great signal for Real Estate There are a lot of real estate Bears out there that think this real estate Market's going to crash I'm in this damn real estate market every single day and I'll tell you there's volatility week by week. Like one person farts in a house and all of a sudden nobody's buying it. The next week, there are 20 offers on it.

The real estate market has almost gotten as volatile as the stock market. It is really insane. You just don't see the candlesticks. but it's just people's emotions.

It's all the same crap. business is people. this obviously. I Mean we talk about this in the courses.

Business is people. Stocks comes down to people's emotions and real estate comes down to people's emotions. Very very simple. But anyway.

uh uh. they talked about uh uh. they actually talked about rate Cuts They had the discussion about rate Cuts One of the reasons I did not get Bingo on my bingo board which was a pisser I I I Was so confident we were going to get bingo. So confident and we were so freaking close.

Uh, but one of the reasons I did not get Bingo is I had to put this blue X here because I wrote that they're still not talking about rate cuts. No, they actually started talking about rate Cuts today. Yep, started talking about rate Cuts What a game changer! What a flip! it's been two years. You remember the worst fed minutes ever? Like I Want who here remembers it? We covered it on this channel.

Federal Reserve The worst minutes I've ever read in my life those were from the December 2021 meeting December of 2021. What the hell. Oh my gosh, it's been two years years. Uh, anyway.

so uh, let's go ahead and keep going here. so we've got inflation levels. the 6mon Very very low. 12 month also trending low.

These are important levels to look at. Uh, it's it's not the month over month that matters so much. it is important that we actually end up looking at those. Trends Uh, Nick T does a good job of posting the trends.

We can go ahead and pull up some of these. Trends Uh, here's an example for you. This is the CPI right here. Look at that 12mon Trend that dark line right here coming down the six-month Trend Coming down.

both of them down. both of them mentioned by drum. Powell Inflation Expectations low and falling great. Didn't get any talk about oil I Was surprised by that or foreign deflation.

although those are other factors that are also leading inflation expectations to plummet wages Still a little bit above Trend so still want to see a little bit of restrictiveness coming into wages though he thinks we're already on that. Trend We're at about 4% for wage growth. We want to be at 3% 3% is where you want to be again. The reason you want to be at 3% is because roughly, if you want to do math to it, consumers make up roughly 70% of the economy.

So if you take 3% 3.0 time. 7, you get about 2.1% inflation, right? That's just a quick math way to kind of look at that and fact. check yourself. Uh, Unemployment rate still very low.

Positive developments: Recession is not our base case. Not seeing signs. the S&P or the summary of economic projections is not signaling weakness. The Sep signaled three rate Cuts as opposed to the two markets were expecting the Fed was going to Signal.

Keep in mind markets have been pricing in four rate Cuts as much as five recently. Uh, we were not expecting the FED to come out and give us three rate Cuts Jome Powell suggested that those that the FED sort of Incorporated the latest CPI and PPI report and uh and they said we, we can't wait, wait to cut rates until we get to 2% because you'd be way too late at that point. Uh, 2% inflation. So I did Talk about slowing quantitive typ tightening.

Once they get to a level they feel comfortable. They're not sure what that level is. They do think that level will be above the level of where it used to be. This is the Federal Reserves balance sheet Dr and Pal mentioned we're about $3.5 trillion dollar above where we used to be.

My guess is we probably honestly, if we level off at about 77 trillion, that's probably where we're going to level off now. Why would I say we only have about 700 billion dollars of QT to go? Why would I say that? St Louis Fred Spell correctly here today. Uh, leis Fred We're going to go with Um Fed Repo Facility reverse Repurchase agreements. Look at that.

Look how much money we have left here. 823 billion So 8 to 700 billion to go. That'll bring us to about 7 trillion of a Fed balance sheet and I think they're done. Then that's when they'll start slowing or just stop entirely.

So what is this practically mean Look in the short term, this is fan freaking tastic for inflation. s Sensitive stocks, Interest rate sensitive stocks, this is great. Uh, in the longer term this will eventually be very good For your energy style stocks, your end phase your solar Edge The break even cost on energy will come down. It should be supportive to the housing market as uh, now you're going to get people starting to speculate.

they'll be able to refinance back at a four or 5% mortgage next year, you're going to start getting that speculation priced in. starting now, it's one of the things that's been keeping a floor under the real estate. Market is not just low inventory, but people speculating that prices will stabilize and so buy what you want now. so that's important.

Now there is a fear that, uh, there'll be a flood of housing that hits the market in the spring as interest rates start falling I Don't know if that's going to happen. Nobody knows if that's going to happen. Obviously, if there's a flood of inventory, the question will be, well, how many floods of buyers are we getting? Are we getting more buyers or not? I Kind of think things will stay kind of the same and flattish that we don't need to expect some huge rallies, just get out there and go buy good deals. Which obviously I will teach you how to buy good deals.

uh with an introduction. Even in the gold course, Gold course is a great way to get introduced to buying real estate if you'd like. so check that out! Gold Course Remember it's 420 bucks so check it out! Go to Meetkevin.com and email us for a bundle coupon at Staff Meetkevin.com It's amazing! Includes all of the new Vers Pro courses course member live streams. It includes a lot.

If you want the individual courses or you want to bundle up, email us at and Meetkevin.com You have three levels here as well. You can get all the courses the Gold membership or the Diamond membership which includes following us around as we go by real estate and you can see how what it's actually like to go by real estate and what we actually look for and houses and you can talk to me and ask questions. So anyway, check it out. go to Meetkevin.com if you got questions.

Staff at Meetkevin.com I Appreciate you all being here. This is fan freaking tastic news and make sure to join me every day. The market is open at 5:25 a.m. on the meet Kevin Live Channel Thanks so much for being here, We'll see you soon! Goodbye.