I am absolutely getting tired of the fud man, i'm getting so tired of the fun i'ma break this crap down for you, and i'm give you my opinion on this, because when bloomberg starts, running stories like this recession is unavoidable without russian oil dallas fed study says: Oh no, the fed is now telling us about a recession coming what it certainly grabbed my attention. It didn't surprise me that you had bloomberg picking up on fud but hey you know what that's why you get the beautiful opportunity of. Of course, listening to me give you the perspective that i think is useful to have and of course, letting you know that you can sign up for the extra debit card via the link down below just go to medkevin.com extra. You can build your credit with a debit card, it's pretty awesome, you link your existing bank account and boom.

You spend money like you normally would you earn rewards, they lend you the money over business night and then pay themselves back and they report your bills or your borrowed money as if it was borrowed and they reported paid to the credit bureaus it's great anyway. We got to take a dive into this before we take a dive into this, though it is also worth noting what the attend to treasury curve is doing, because this is uh, probably jpow doesn't like it, but j-pal doesn't like anything that says, he's doing a bad Job so uh. This is the 10-2 yield curve right now, if we zoom all the way into march here, it's obviously fallen from the end of february all the way down to about 20.. Now, yesterday, after jay pal started talking about nothing's holding us back from a 50 basis, point hike and the market had some heart palpitations.

We went down to about 18. now we're sitting about 20.4 uh break evens for inflation. Estimates are still quite elevated over here. At about 3.6, this is the five-year break, even truck it's a problem, but honestly, more and more, it just seems like uh the market.

I mean look at this. This is the nasdaq it's up. Uh, 356 right now. It's absolutely insane we're almost at the 350 fibonacci line over here, i'm sorry, the 50 fibonacci retracement line, which is 361.

uh. It's really incredible. I mean the market is just totally brushing this off. I think we're up what 1.8 yeah 1.87 on the qqq is crazy.

So so why then, are we getting this fud and is this fud, something that we should actually worried about? Is this just a bear market rally? Is you know what is this nonsense and does the fed have a point here? Well, you know me. I always like to go to the source, so, of course, this is not the source. This is not a primary source. This is a secondary source right, because they're referencing something else right, and they talk about how, without a resumption of russian energy exports this year.

According to the dallas fed, it might be difficult to avoid a recession right and they talk about how their comparisons to this and 1991 and how, when we have prior oil peaks, we often see recessions and that this oil peak was was unexpected, because originally we weren't Going to sanction energy but uh, you know unless we have some sort of uh sudden supply response, we're going to see some crazy demand, destruction and that demand destruction is going to lead to a recession not entirely possible, like we had some crazy spending last year. Wouldn't surprise me for us to have some negative comps, especially at companies, but wait a minute. Let's just isolate this in two ways. First, we're going to look at what the fed actually said and second we're going to look at this chart, which is a little blurry up here.

We're going to look at this right here, okay, so their argument is that hey over here. This is the the knight oops. That's definitely not a highlighter uh. You go over here.

There's your 90s crash and look. Oh, no spike led to red, which was crash right, that's not great! Oh no. We had a little spike over here and then crash. That's not good, that's that's! You know also that's bad, oh, and look at this massive oil price spike over here in 2008.

That's not that's, not good uh and then oh, no look at where we are now big old, spike right. Okay, fine i've heard it many times before i've even said hey, you know it's not a good sign to have oil above 100, because of course it does increase fears of a recession specifically because of demand destruction right. The less people have to to spend on consumer goods like nike, stuff or under armour stuff or whatever, even though nike reported a great quarter. Remember that was the end of last year.

Right, no, no q1 forecast. Yet here uh take a look at some other things that i've actually seen on this chart. Look at the green highlighting so which i'm gon na reiterate here with yellow look over here. Okay, so we had an increase in oil prices here, but that was kind of nominal right.

Okay, didn't have a recession. There look at this. I mean we sat here with this oil run up throughout the entire early half of the 2000s. We didn't have a recession, and neither of these were oil induced this over here was a tech bubble.

This over here was a housing crisis. We had a massive oil price surge right here: 2012 2014. This was a disaster and it wasn't until uh. We started having a lot more fracking in the united states and rebuilding our oil production at home.

Imagine that uh some of the cleanest oil in the world is in america anyway. Uh no recession, no recession. Here a lot of people freaking out about oh they're, gon na be a double dip. Procession.

Didn't have one didn't have one in 2018 either when oil spiked didn't have one had a little bit of a taper tantrum, but that's it no recession. Oh no rates went up but no recession, so i don't know i mean looking at the chart. It seems a little overblown but okay, fine, let's go ahead and go into their actual research, all right. So, let's, let's see what they say here.

So they talk about how russia essentially has the potential of supplying 3 million barrels per day of petrol production within america, and over here you've got russian exports representing about eight percent global petroleum exports, excluding russia about 92 percent, okay got it and uh. What we see here is that uh, the fed actually reports that one of the things that's happening right now is potentially, even though this is illegal. Trading houses are actually buying the russian oil, storing it in europe and in the future they might just resell it. Out of europe, basically, gambling on that russian oil rebranding it maybe slapping a different label on it and then introducing it into the market.

Because the fed here says recent data from a data, aggregator energy intelligence says we so far - have not seen a full 3 million barrel per day of oil decline in markets. So something's happening like this, oil is still somehow making it to the markets. Even though uh you know generally, this is frowned upon. I want to clarify uh it actually in.

According to these sanctions, it is not prohibited under current sanctions, so oftentimes, it's frowned upon. Sometimes it's even illegal in this case it is actually not so i want to make that crystal clear, so the feds actually notice by the way i want to mention this, the fudster bloomberg article did not mention anything about this potential 3 million barrels per day. Somehow still making it into the market - and i mean like, let's be real okay, let me just pretend i'm an oil baron here, okay and i'm not i'm not an air oil baron, i'm sitting in an office with a freaking, hello, kitty cup and for some reason You decided to listen to me. I don't know why, but anyway, so pretend we're an oil baron.

We put our our oil baron hat on. We're like russian oil is tough to sell right now, because a lot of countries aren't allowed to buy belarus and china. They get a lot of russian oil, but they got enough of it. So other countries like india are like hmm, we'll buy your oil for a discount because, hey, why would i buy the american crap at 100 per barrel? If i could buy yours 30 off? It's like a black friday sale.

Thirty percent off huh, that's a good deal. That's like that's like getting forty one percent off on my courses on building your wealth linked down below with a coupon code expiring in three days. Why would i not buy as many of those courses? I mean barrels of oil as possible. It makes sense that somehow the free market still seems to work, especially since it says here.

Buying oil for storage is not prohibited now, probably buying russian oil is probably illegal right. That's where there's going to be some confusion, but come on like you can figure out how to skirt this and make lots of money. You know here buy it for 70 and resell it for 100. I mean come on anyway.

There are some differences between russian oil. It's a heavier grade versus the lighter kind of shale that we have over here in america. That's okay! There are some differences, but so it seems like some of this is still getting into the market, which is actually a good thing right. Uh and there's also talk about, maybe europe, finally getting off their behinds and uh.

Not only are they working deals with other countries like germany is has just announced, a large deal, uh for liquefied uh patrol liquefied natural gas, i'm sorry and they're, making new deals all over the world uh other countries are coming out and suggesting uh. Whatever support they can there's also pressure that maybe germany and europe will be able to finally bring some of their coal and nuclear plants online again to reduce their reliance on natural gas. So there are ways that we can offset the impact of russia without having to go in a recession right, especially since a lot of that russian oil is literally again between us, probably still getting into the market. They do talk about some issues, though they talk about the fact that saudi arabia is not interested in increasing their supply.

The ua uae is not interested in increasing their supply. These are opec members right, and this is a problem. If some people or some countries are not interested in providing additional supply, then then, obviously you have a problem, because eventually you need this extra supply. I think one of the reasons we're seeing this lack of supply issue is the following.

Likewise, producers in the united states are constrained by three things: one supply chain bottlenecks, so it's harder to actually pump more because you don't have the products to do so. You have labor shortages. We talked about this in a video the other day, we got 12 500. Less oil workers in america than we've ever had before this is a big problem, because how are you supposed to bring more pipe? You know rigs online, assume 100 people per rig.

That's a lot of rigs. That's 120 rigs in america. We can't bring online because we just don't have the workers for that anymore and how many people right now are going to college trying to get a degree in oil pumping or whatever you would get it right. So that's a problem.

A good news, maybe is that uh you got biden biden's great at striking deals, apparently, not probably not. I don't know uh negotiating with iran and venezuela, which is something that a lot of republicans are obviously decrying because, like dude come on like why? Don't we just pump more here, hey ever heard of the keystone xl, you remember that remaining uh, you know, extension leg of the keystone pipeline whatever and then, of course, we have the strategic oil reserve, which, even if we released all of it, it would help us For about three months offset all of uh russia's oil, and so you you've got a lot of this. What i call noise, you got: noise about iran, venezuela, opec and production in america; reducing reliance on oil and natural gas in europe; and germany and and partnerships, and this that - and they finished this whole piece with if russian energy exports are off market. For the remainder of 2022, a global economic downturn seems unavoidable because of demand destruction right, not enough money circulating to keep our numbers higher than where they were last year.

So we have a recession with two quarters of negative negative gdp in a row right, but i think the big thing that is entirely missed by bloomberg and doesn't even show up in the bottom line on this fed economist piece here which bothers me, is literally what They said up front right here. What changed is much of the russian oil that continues to be exported from the baltic and black sea ports at steep discounts is not delivered to refiners. Instead, trading houses are buying it and putting it into commercial storage in europe from where it may be, potentially resold, bypassing financial sanctions, in other words, when the energy intelligence group tells us for some reason, we're actually not seeing that 3 million barrel per day of oil Decline is probably because it's actually still finding its way into the market that russian oil is still making it in so sucks for the point of view of trying to sanction russia, but in terms of avoiding a recession, that's what i'd be watching. I would be watching the fact that this oil somehow still makes it to the market, and all the other crap for me for now is just noise, and i'm also keeping my fingers crossed on a negotiated deal with ukraine.

So we'll see what happens. This is something i'm keeping an eye on, and this gives me optimism. I like this a lot i'm going to look one more time really quickly. Just at their conclusion here, you could go.

You click out of this video already. There are three main implications for the global economy. First, russia's invasion of ukraine will have far-reaching implications for renewables. Of course, we know this food fertilizer, wheat.

We know that uh food prices supply chain disruptions caused by ukraine, blah blah sustain inflationary pressures. We know that uh the oil embargo against russia may cause a political response in russia: okay, big deal and again, third, the bulk of russia. If the bulk of russian energy exports is off market for the remainder of 202. Well, so far so far, based on the data they gave here themselves is that that, if is actually not happening right now, yet of course you've got doomberg running these headlines.

I need a tesla tequila. I'm freaking, tired of this.