Everyone me kevin here. Let me tell you about some major changes from the federal reserve. What we just heard, jerome powell talk about in the senate and some implications of this, and i have to say i am pissed. This is important and massively important to the future of the stock market, because we've got some problems getting priced into the stock market and some things not getting priced in and that's what we got to talk about.

But first i'll explain all of this after i mention that friday's that day again, the prices on the programs on building your wealth are going up again. We just invested another 25 000 into new studio equipment to bring brand new lectures to everyone in all of our courses throughout the year. We're super excited and constantly updating the programs. We hope to see you there, because we have a goal of doubling the prices of the programs by 2023.

So hopefully you lock in the prices. Now you look back and you won't regret it use that coupon code below before friday stocks real estate. You name it, but let's talk powell now, because powell is either very confused or he's lying to us. Remember what jerome powell told us last week i tweeted it.

Here's a copy and paste of what i tweeted the consumer is in very good shape, says drum powell, there's no sign of a broader slowdown in the economy. People are talking about it, and consumer confidence is at lows that we haven't seen since the great financial crisis and sure stock prices are down to some extent, but no we're not seeing a broad-based slowdown. Jerome powell reiterated today because this was just last week reiterated today that the consumer is strong, but folks. How is that potentially possible when credit card spending over the last four to six weeks has began to plummet and not just amongst the lower income cohort? Where we expected the first set of pain folks, this makes me nervous.

Oh spending growth by both high and low income products has drifted lower, implying that both the lower and higher end incomes are starting to suffer we're starting to see declines in the growth of credit card spending, and this is a big red flag. That markets are not yet pricing in people. Think, oh, you know poor end. Consumers are just going to go to the dollar store and higher end.

Consumers are still going to spend money. We are now seeing both cohorts, spend less money, and yet now jerome powell is still giving the market a false sense of confidence. Consider the markets, pricing. In of a recession.

We keep hearing the idea that oh a recession is priced in, yet floors keep falling out below us in the stock market. We continue to hit new lows, so how much is actually getting priced in? Well, if you consider what bloomberg suggests, we only have a 68 chance of a recession priced in which is lower than what we've seen in 75 to 90 percent of prior recessions. Take a look at the chart right here. Monthly equity models show we have only priced in a two-thirds chance of a recession.

You can see that right here. This line is up to about 68 percent. When you look at prior recessions, such as the great financial crisis, the dot-com bubble, recession and prior recessions, with the exception of the covet pandemic right here and the early 80s recession in all of these other scenarios, here over 75 percent of them, we have the market Pricing in a recession at a substantially higher degree where we sit now anywhere between 80 to 90 percent pricing. In of a recession.

That means we have further to fall in the stock market, but not only that at the same time as jerome powell is saying, don't worry, everything's fine, which is honestly starting to sound like a frustrating, broken record. Look at this discrepancy. Earnings expectations are not actually pricing. In a recession or drawdown yet now we have a caveat here that obviously inflation has boosted earnings expectations, but look at this.

The blue lines are equity prices right these little blue upside down mountains. Those are equity prices. The white line here are earnings expectations right. We see those that come down substantially in a recession here, because we expect earnings to go down.

Look at how much earnings expectations are being priced in right now. Oh wow, almost no change to earnings expectations, that's right folks and it sets up for a potential dirty stock market going forward. In fact, traders the bond market traders are right now. Pricing, in just a 75 basis, point hike one more time and a 3.6 percent terminal federal funds rate.

This means that traders think okay we're going to end at 3.6 percent at the fed rate, no more 4.1 4.2 percent, even though that's likely, where we're heading, which what does that mean in english? More downside ahead? Because if we're only pricing in 3.6, but we end up with 4.2 and maybe more 75 bp hikes stocks have to adjust for that, just like stocks have to adjust to earnings expectations and stocks have to adjust to the fact that wait a second here we haven't Actually priced in the recession fully yet so this morning, jerome powell testified before congress and he made some interesting points which i want to break down right now. First, he tells us that a recession is indeed possible and that a soft landing will be very challenging. This though, he keeps buffeting with the idea that the consumer is very strong, and this is again giving the market a false sense of hope. At least pat harker from the philly fed this morning was a little bit more real with us.

He says we're probably going to have a couple negative quarters over the next year and a half which is a textbook way of saying we're, probably going to have a recession. Now jerome powell told us this morning that his goal is to lower demand to growth, not cause a contraction, but he admits that he at the fed has not gotten his house in order and basically admits to failure on inflation. And if this frustrates you it should. But at least we've got a lot more to cover, but at least you can get a free stock worth all the way up to a thousand dollars with public.

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You can even follow me on there at me: kevin kevin.com public, but now remember. The federal reserve was still printing money three months ago, buying bonds at a pace of billions of dollars per month. Now the fed says they can't help supply chain issues. All they can do is reduce demand.

Yet somehow the consumer is still strong and one of the places that we are actually seeing a hard hit so far is the housing market and at least jerome powell is real with us here. Jerome powell tells us in his testimony that the housing market is slowing down and could quote fairly quickly affect home prices, but not yet it takes time. There is a lag between when rates go up and when home prices come down. My expectation is, it takes six to nine months, so, in other words, q3 q4 of 2022, we're probably going to start seeing some downticks in home prices, which could turn into a correction.

Jerome powell tells us that demand for homes is moving down quite significantly and that maybe prices won't fall. Maybe they'll flatten, because there's limited supply. But if we end up getting a surge of supply because homes are stuck in the building process and they're. Finally, coming out because of supply chain issues, you could end up matching a high supply of homes with high mortgage rates and low demand or lowered demand.

People are getting priced out, says drone powell, and this is part of getting inflation under control. Jerome powell is literally telling you that pricing people out of the housing market by raising rates is part of his job. It's part of getting inflation under control, so he's bluntly telling us that listen part of his job is to push housing down, not necessarily trying to cause declines, but he tells us that the housing prices have been in his opinion, at quote, unsustainable highs, so he's telling You housing prices, oh maybe they'll, flatten. I feel like he's again trying to give us that false sense of security, but at the same time he's telling us housing prices are at unsustainable highs and his job is to price people out of the market by increasing the cost of housing which has to force Prices down, if the fed.

This is another big one, okay, which, by the way, if you want to take advantage of the opportunities that are coming up in real estate. Those programs on building your wealth have a brilliant coupon code and, with the new lecture sets that we have coming out probably going to have double the value of the programs in all of these programs on building your wealth by the end of the year. Because we've got huge new lectures coming and we're really excited about those, especially with our new technology that we've got and you're going to love it, but either way you don't believe the housing market's going to get hurt. Consider this the fed has to consider selling mortgage-backed securities at a loss and when they do, mortgage rates will skyrocket even more now some people say well the mortgage.

You know the federal reserve doesn't have to sell bonds. They just let them mature. That's not true! For the mortgage market, because mortgage bonds can take 15 to 30 years to mature, unlike treasuries, which can expire in three months and two years, whatever mbs mortgage-backed securities take too long to mature, they have to sell them, and this is a massive problem, because it's going To lead to more depression of the bond market, lower prices in the bond market means higher yields, which means higher mortgage rates, which means again more pressure on home prices coming down, which jerome powell literally told you is his job to bring home prices down now. Regarding employment, he says that he's optimistic that unemployment won't go to five percent, though banks are telling us the real story that we actually expect unemployment to rise to six percent by 2024..

So is this again jerome powell giving us the cushy story while not giving us the truth? Is he or is he hiding the truth mixed in with soft messaging to you know, give it to the american consumer a little more softly. Jerome powell tells us that the job market is unsustainably hot. Just this morning, jp morgan laid off 1 000 mortgage workers, redfin compass, laying off over 400 employees. Each crypto companies are almost all laying off employees block fi coinbase, you name it tesla's, laying off employees.

People who have worked at companies like t-mobile for six years are getting laid off. No one is safe and when jerome powell tells us that inflation is going down, he says well. Hopefully it is because so far we have quote no evidence. Certainly not any quote compelling evidence that prices are slowing consistently, so sure.

Maybe inflation went down a little bit in april from the high of march, but inflation went right back up in may and so far as jerome powell tells us. We have no compelling evidence that prices are actually slowing and the fed has to crimp asset prices via the wealth effect. We know that spending will go down. The fed controls demand.

Jerome powell is bluntly telling you his job is to destroy the economy. I hate to say, but we have to be real here, he's telling us this is his job, because there's no worse curse than inflation, because that could mean the end of the united states dollar, as we know it and losing the dollar's reserve status could mean much Worse things for the united states economy in a complete reset, so what are we likely to deal with over session? We have to be comfortable that we are about to live through a recession, and there are many things that we can do to prepare. In my opinion, the first thing that we ought to do is get educated, be as educated as possible to make sure that we are prepared to take advantage of the opportunities that are presented to us now. One of the easiest ways that you can do, that is by checking out the programs on building your wealth link down below i'm with you every single day, even in our course member live streams we can come, we can work together to not only analyze real estate.

Deals but to analyze fundamentally what's happening at the companies that we follow or the companies that you follow every day. We take suggestions on which company to analyze next and we do it together, you could join these. You get lifetime access to these programs as well. The second thing that you can do is obviously do whatever you can today, and i would write this down on a post-it note right now: go reach into your drawer grab a little post-it note pad and write it down this right here.

This is a prescription pad and yeah i'ma write you a prescription, and it is write this down. Okay, write it down make as much money as you can over the next six months and save as much of it as possible, while investing in yourself in a smart way. This means buy licensing and education, invest in yourself to make sure you are prepared to make the right moves, but don't buy a new car. Don't buy a new jacket, don't buy a new vacation when we're going into a recession when you could use that money to actually catapult your wealth to something meaningful in the future.

Recessions are seen as scary, but folks. This is an opportunity. Prepare yourself. Save money limit debt get out of credit card debt, get your debt to income low, so you're ready to buy real estate.

If you're in a position to refinance even at higher rates, now get a heloc, ideally do so because then you have money available for when we potentially fall now credit lines can get frozen. So you have to be careful. You have to pay attention to the market and be nimble here, but credit lines are nice because you don't have to pay interest while you're just holding on to the money, but anyway holding on to the availability that is but anyway, folks prepare. What jerome powell told us today slightly closer to the truth, but still masked with bs, and i want you to be a survivor and read through the bs thanks for watching.

I hope you appreciate the sincerity check out those programs linked down below with the expiring coupon code. Folks, we'll see you soon. Thank you. Bye,.