Welcome back to meet Kevin report number of 42. A lot to talk about today, including what's going on with a little bit of an update on Federal Reserve large update on Ukraine We'll also talk about real estate and we'll talk about Trump's speech at CPAC and we'll see what else we can cover given the time that we end up having. So let's get into that. Oh, we'll also talk forecast today, so that'll be pretty important for the next few weeks.

so we'll take a look at that uh, very important month coming up here. So uh, let's jump first into this uh I'd like to react to a now this piece from Katie poor uh Porter So let's jump into this Here we go: This is a pretty trending Tick Tock from Katie Porter basically telling Jamie dimon the CEO of Chase JPMorgan and Chase that a woman who has a six-year-old a child can't survive while working at Chase and asks for his advice on what she should do. while Jamie Diamond doesn't answer I have some suggestions. Let's get started and play this first.

And 31 million dollars a year in salary and you can't figure out how to make up a 567 a month shortfall. This is a budget problem you cannot solve. You're an expert on financial statements and you run a 2.6 trillion dollar bank. I Know you're good at numbers and you've shared lots of opinions recently about how the U.S should budget its resources, How families should budget their resources.

And so I'd like to ask for your help on a problem. I Went to Monster.com and I found a job in my hometown of Irvine At JPMorgan Chase a 16.50 an hour? Um, and so I wondered if I could Um, if you'd indulge me, um, would you do the math on this? If you do the 1650 out at 40 hours a week for 52 weeks a year, it comes out to an income of thirty five thousand and seventy dollars. Now this bank teller her name is Patricia She has one child who's six years old. She claims the one dependent after tax, she has twenty nine thousand one hundred dollars.

We divide that by 12. she rents a one bedroom apartment she and her daughter sleep together in the same room in. Irvine California That average one-bedroom apartment is going to be sixteen hundred dollars. She spends 100 on utilities, take away the 1700 and she has net 725 dollars.

She's like me. She has a 2008 Minivan and has gas. 400 dollars for car expenses and gas net 325.. the Department of Agriculture says a low-cost food budget that is ramen noodles.

A low food budget is 400. That leaves her seventy seven dollars. In the red she has a Cricket cell phone. The cheapest cell phone she can get for forty dollars.

She's in the red 117 a month. She's after school child care because the bank is open during normal business hours. That's 450 a month. That takes her down to negative 567 per month.

My question for you Mr Diamond is how should she manage this budget shortfall while she's working full-time at your bank? I Don't know I have to think about this. Would you recommend that you take out a JPMorgan Chase credit card and run a deficit? I Don't know I have to think about it. Would you recommend that she overdraft at your bank and be charged overdraft fees? I don't know I got to think about it so I know you have a lot anyway. So she goes back and forth and asks multiple times.

what about this? What about that he said basically says hey, you know I have to think about it but I did some thinking about it and I have some opinions on this. First of all, and it's always touchy. Okay, I'm just blunt on the channel. it's always touchy.

If you're a single mom, you're in a very difficult position. If you have not yet really figured out how to make more money than 16.50 Uh, cents an hour by the time you have a child, that's probably the first mistake here now. I Know that mistake is in the past I'm not going to spend most of the time on this, but let's make it very clear: if you were a woman, the best case scenario is: before you have a child, make more money than 16.50 an hour. That's probably priority number one is make sure you're not reliant on anyone else.

Whether that's a man, another woman. Mom Dad I Don't care who it is, make sure you're self-reliant yourself before you have a child that is. Mission Critical Number One: Do not rely on anyone else, the government, or anyone that is number one. Number two: If you're making sixteen dollars and fifty cents an hour at Chase in Irvine, you're probably not getting the most income that you could.

You're probably able like this, in the snap of a finger: able to go from 16.50 an hour to potentially 40 or 50 percent more pay working for Amazon making 22 to 24 dollars an hour with no necessary additional skill set than what you already have at JP Morgan So in this scenario, you're really putting somebody in a very expensive area in Southern California who has a six-year-old child and they're already not getting potentially the best job available to them with no additional education or training. Now, the next thing that this individual should do is they have to realize if your paycheck to paycheck are potentially negative. In this scenario, when they went through sort of a budget, the person's negative: 500 a month for a basic costs like, uh, you know, essentially housing, uh, food, child care? Whatever. Somebody like this In this situation who has gotten them in a place where they have a six-year-old child and they're only able to make 16 to maybe twenty four dollars an hour, they're going to have to work more than eight hours a day.

And of course, this is not even including the fact that they have a child to take care of. But you're going to have to, unfortunately burn the candle at both ends of the stick. Now that's a hard thing to say. You could just pick up and try to move to a lower cost of living area, but that's not necessarily going to get you ahead that might just sink you back into essentially just compressing yourself into more of an area of poverty.

And when poverty concentrates, you end up getting worse schooling for your child. And that's not what you want to set your child up for. You want to set yourself and your child up for the best odds of success. So one of the best things this individual could do is start looking into home education programs where they can maybe learn how to get a Nursing degree working before they go to work in the morning or when their child's asleep at night.

That should be the priority. In fact, a lot of nursing school programs only require you go to school actually in person once to twice a week now because so much can be done at home at your own pace. Now all of a sudden, you could potentially go from not just making sick sixteen, fifty an hour, or even 22, 23, 24 an hour working at let's say Amazon, but you could actually go to making fifty dollars an hour when you actually get a professional certification like becoming a registered nurse. So when Katie Porter asks one of the richest people in the world, hey, how can a person making 16.50 at your bank actually get ahead, she's actually not asking the right question.

It is not Jamie Diamond's responsibility to offer a job that creates value of potentially even less than 16.50 for the bank to somebody that can cover all of their expenses when they set themselves up and put themselves unfortunately into a situation that is not conducive with actually being able to survive in America Whether it's the location they're in or the decisions they made prior to getting into that situation, but it is now incumbent upon that person themselves to get themselves out of that situation. Now some people say hey, that's not fair and look, that is the capitalist extract structure that America is based off of Now Fortunately, and this is the fortunate part. Fortunately, even though we are a country of capitalistic rules and ideals, we do have a social safety net and this is the next thing that the individual should consider. Somebody on this sort of income would easily, especially in Southern California qualify for Section 8 subsidized housing.

which means they could potentially get almost all of their rent covered Now they have more money to make sure they can educate themselves rather than paying 1600 a month in rent. Maybe they could pay a thousand dollars less a month in rent and only pay about 600 a month in rent. Now there are waiting lists for Section 8 so that is problematic. and that's where you can also make sure that you're getting your food at charity.

Banks There are uh in in almost every single County I have been in. there are local christian or Jewish community centers that regularly give food away to anybody who wants it. This is healthy stuff that you could eat at home. They also sell very inexpensive of clothing.

It's phenomenal. There are some really great ways you could buy clothing and food by making sure you're taking advantage of the resources your community and non-profits give. And the next thing to realize is some people are going to say oh, but wait, have it. Education is expensive.

Well look. if you want to counter every single argument that I'm making, you're probably putting your head in the sand rather than realizing there are ways to solve every problem. problems. Create Solutions And guess what? work problems can get solved with Solutions obviously and it's your job to create those Solutions And so if you stick your head in the sand, you're always going to be stuck with problems.

But if you look at problems and say hey, the more problems I can solve, the more I get paid then you can get through this. In fact, one of the common things that people will do is they will look at all right? Hey, what can I do to get my education subsidized by going to local community colleges or universities and seeing if they have any programs for people in my situation And the odds are they do. So, almost every single objection that exists can be overcome by a solution in America. And we haven't even talked about the fact that you could also get Medicaid Uh, when your income is below a certain level within a region, especially in Irvine, you're certainly within a percentage of the level of poverty.

In fact, I would argue you're below the poverty line uh for a two-person household. So there are so many important things to consider when it comes to America that I Understand that when we take this one person 16.50 income with a child out of context, we realize there are a lot of things that happen. Or we have to realize there are a lot of problems that happen before and then there are now problems that are happening today in this sort of fictitious example. But that fictitious example is probably real.

And it does happen. It's not going to be easy to get out of that hole, but the good news is it's possible. So that's my take on Uh Katie Porter's video. probably not going to be the most popular, but then again, I'm coming at it from the angle of uh, somebody in in the Uh in the finance space and thinking myself, well, if Jamie Diamond doesn't want to give answers because it would be unpopular to say, well leave Chase Uh, right, or he doesn't want to give any kind of unpopular answer I'm willing to make that argument because a look twenty percent of people might yell at me and go, man, you, you don't even know what it's like which is not true because I grew up on minimum wage, nearly going through bankruptcy and foreclosure with my parents I had a bootstrap myself.

But beyond that, and look, everybody's got their privileges. Okay, everybody's got advantages and disadvantages. But the point is, we just have to have real talk to be able to get through hard situations. And if somebody is in that kind of situation and they would rather talk about how what I described is not possible or how it's not fair that other people had advantages, well, then guess what? If that's the mindset somebody has, then they deserve the card they're dealt.

If the mindset of somebody who is in a tough situation is ah, well, everybody else is just privileged, you know. I'm not smart enough to go to school. Well, then that's your problem. And ultimately, when you point a finger, three point back at yourself.

So it's important to keep that in mind when we look at this from a financial. remember: I'm a licensed financial advisor. This isn't personalized Financial Advice Obviously because I don't know all of your situation or that person situation or whatever. that person doesn't even exist that Katie Porter talked about.

But when we're actually real about financial guidance or advice, we could see there are real ways to solve problems. That is the point of America problem find solution, then get paid. All righty Then uh, somebody just donated. Uh, four dollars in 99 Cents I'm a high school graduate with no degrees and I drive a truck for a living and make over 100 Grand a year? There are no excuses.

Hot damn look at that take. that's wow. dude. Over 100? Grand That's amazing.

Congratulations All right, what do we got next? So oh, we gotta do forecasts. Oh, this is gonna be fun. Uh, side, big in real estate and lending? There you go. Yeah, all right.

so we gotta do forecasts. Here We go. Now we gotta talk economic forecasts. and we gotta watch these forecasts before the dates actually come up.

So you're prepared and you realize what the expectations are. Now look, even Bloomberg is complaining about the fact that Holy Smokes estimates and forecasts are probably going to be a little wild here. That's because we're coming off of Seasonal Adjustment month and you know what seasonal adjustment month means, right? Well look at this. Okay, so before we get into some of the actual forecast data, which you want to write down, it's important to understand what the hell happened in January and Barons put together a phenomenal piece.

This is a screenshot from their piece, not the whole thing, but this is a phenomenal piece right here that just gives you a quick little outline of some of the insanity uh, that happened uh, in the data from January which was essentially shown to us in February which led the stock market to have a little bit of a heart attack and a 10-year treasury yields to Skyrocket near and above a four percent. So what do we have over here? Payrolls: The first tough report we got, payrolls actually declined by 2.5 million jobs per month. However, the seasonal adjustment for January was we were expecting a loss of 3 million jobs. As a result, we had about a 500 000 jobs blow out.

So think about that. Only in America can you literally lose 3 million jobs and then have the Bureau of Labor Statistics tell you. Holy crap, we added 500 000 jobs. It's because their assumption was we would lose 3 million and we only lost 2.5 Good.

Lord How do we trust this sort of noisy data? Uh, then what do we have here? The average work week it says jumped. Oh no, it jumped to 37 point or 34.7 hours. Which potentially implies that wage earners have pricing power, right? PP And that's not necessarily the best case scenario because even though we want people to get paid more over time, we don't want them to get paid so much more that all of a sudden we have an inflationary spiral, right? So when the average work week jumps, that seems scary, right? especially since it jumped from 34.7 to 34.4 good Lord I'd love to only work 34 hours a week I think I work about 80 to 90 hours a week. But anyway, that artifact was thanks much to warmer than average temperatures in much of the United States which resulted in fewer hours lost due to bad weather in a typical January Oh Good Lord.

Okay, what about that three percent jump in retail sales I mean that the January data was terrible, right? We had a three percent jump in retail sales data. After all, that was two-thirds greater than the consensus forecast. How are you going to explain that one away? Oh well. uh.

as Morgan Stanley's economics team here writes via Barons January sales typically decline by 20 after the December holiday frenzy. With this January sales only falling 16.2 percent, there was an outsized boost to the seasonal adjustment figures. In other words, well, what about the hot retail sales data? Yes, well, usually in a typical December sales uh, December to January sales in January dropped 20 percent. Duh, it's not Christmas anymore.

it's only Kevin's birthday and Kevin don't get that many gifts, it's Academy kids. But anyway, Uh, with this January sales falling only 16.2 percent, we got a positive retail sales read. So wait a minute. Retail sales can literally fall 16.2 percent and our government's going to tell us plus three percent.

Yes, now we can understand this. I'm not saying seasonal adjustments are wrong, right? We try to smooth out the insanity of the year, but the point is this: January was pretty freaking weird. Not Only was the weather very different, but you also have a lot of pandemic labor holding hoarding hoardling. Oh my.

Lord Uh, you have a lot of pandemic labor hoarding that is people who hired people seasonally for for the uh, you know, holiday season. Uh, All of a sudden don't want to let go of employees because it's been so hard to hire people during the pandemic. We're all a little shell-shocked Uh, here's another one. The report showed a 17.7 increase in light Motor Vehicle sales but unadjusted.

Light Truck Sales were actually down 18.6 percent. You know it's just annoying that when we look at this data, the actual data is just a massive negative. But then when these seasonal adjustment comes in, it's a massive positive. And again, we're trying our best.

And that's why these seasonal adjustments are done to compare 2023 to other normal years. But I Want to ask you how normal does January of 2023 feel compared to other quote-unquote normal years? Probably not very normal. So now we gotta look at forecasts because the forecast. they're not that great.

Uh oh uh. It is also worth noting. Um, you know the Wall Street Journal and sort of this topic of Labor hoarding. I Was reading this yesterday in the plane and I thought this was actually a really, really good piece right here.

This was a phenomenal one. It's super short, so let me hit this really quick and then we'll do the forecast. So the Federal Reserve's efforts to slow the American economy doesn't appear to be working. People like to say it's pushing against a string.

It's kind of a good analogy. and so they're they're talking about. Look, the FED is trying to slow down the economy, right? but we're getting that hot data we got in January which we kind of just threw some, you know, salt on basically. uh.

and then over here. what are we actually kind of seeing going on in the economy? Well, I thought this was interesting card swipe data from the security firm Castle Systems. It's basically a company that makes sure that only people who actually work at a company can get into a company office building. Think about it.

Like key cards, badge cards, right? They say that office occupancy is around 50 for the week ending Feb 22 2. And while that's an improvement from a year earlier of 40 percent, we used to be around a hundred percent before the pandemic, so you have to think about that like things are really, really different. How do you seasonally adjust things compared to the last decade when office occupancy is half of what it previously was. How about going to the movies? Well, they say here that going to the movies brought in about 1.08 billion dollars according to Box Office Mojo Better than what we had last year for the first two months of the year, but well short of the 1.54 billion we had in the first two months of 2020 before the pandemic.

So in other words, somehow movie Chains are basically down 40 to 50 percent. yet we're still supposed to somehow make seasonal adjustments compared to the last decade. It doesn't make any sense, right? And and the Wall Street Journal here says: look, this is happening everywhere. Visiting amusement parks, outpatient surgery, you're seeing more frequency than last year, but still way less than what you saw pre-pandemic for example, they say they give sort of an example I Don't know about this, but more men might be keep might keep wearing their long hair.

but Barber visits will probably pick up anywhere. Health Care Employment Finally got back to pre-pandemic levels, but it's probably below where it would have been otherwise Now, this is actually a really interesting argument they make here, and it's best to visualize it, so if I draw it out, it'll make a little bit more sense. But basically think about Healthcare employment. Uh, sort of hitting like a little low because of uh, you know, people getting laid off for elective surgeries or whatever and it's sort of rebounding.

Well, we might be back at the same level where we were before the pandemic and uh, now. But the problem is, usually we actually grow the healthcare industry because people, are, you know, aging, So we should be here in sort of the green line, which is substantially higher than where we were. But we're not. We're just back to levels where we were in healthcare in 2019.

let me read that to you. If the health care sector had added jobs at the same Pace following the onset of the pandemic as it had over the previous 20 years, it's payroll count in January would have totaled nearly 900 000 jobs higher. Well, how's that going to show up in the jobs data? You know, if we actually just went back to typical Health Care Trend we'd be adding 900 000 jobs. Yeah, even if you divide that over a year, that's like adding another 80 000 jobs a month just to get back to Trend That's not even keeping up with the trend.

it's insane. So of course, when you do the seasonal adjustments, it's like, dude, how the hell are those supposed to be accurate Now, of course, all of this unfortunately contributes the idea that well, it's going to be hard for the FED to slow things down because we kind of are trying to get back to the old school Trend growth, right? And so that does kind of apply. Higher rates for longer, but this isn't a higher rates for longer video Even though that's exactly what Mayor Daley And basically everybody at the FED is saying it's gonna be higher for longer. Whatever.

Whatever. This is a video on forecasts and we've got to make sure we talk about those forecasts because as much as I hate to say it, the forecasts are going to be very important for the stock market. I Don't care how many times like on screen now Bloomberg tells you that around the time of spikes or troughs, the forecast data is really bumpy and lumpy. In other words, it's really easy to predict and forecast when we're in these sort of tight bands over here.

Really, really easy to do. The yellow bands, by the way, are estimates. so the yellow bands show you estimates and then little dots show you the forecast or the historical. So basically the white dots are what actually happened and the yellow bands were the forecast.

But every time we get around these sort of Curves you end up finding that that they basically, uh, you get this. these potential outliers and data I mean look for example, all over here on the right side. What you'll find is you have all of these estimates at various different levels and all of the estimates Vast. The vast majority of them tend to be wrong because we get some kind of crazy outlier or whatever as a result.

So keep that in mind when we look at the numbers that we are expecting here. So what do we have for Catalyst Well, the first thing that we have is on Uh I mean we've got some Factory orders for the beginning of, uh, the week. On the sixth, we're going to get Factory orders at 10 A.M Eastern time. We're expecting those Factory orders to come in at negative 1.8 percent excluding Transportation positive one percent.

whatever. Uh, whole, we got wholesale trade figures coming in Expected to be negative for both sales month over month by negative 0.5 Inventory is negative 0.4 Fine. Whatever, What's going to matter more? Well, probably the ADP report. So the prior ADP report came in with a hundred and six thousand private jobs.

created the ADP report, which is sort of our private estimate of what's going on. Jobs Market is expected to come in at 200 000. that's going to be important. Pay attention to the ADP report.

We'll also be paying attention that ADP report comes out on the 8th. That's Wednesday and the ADP report comes in at 8 15 Eastern time. Then on the 8th at Uh 10 A.m Eastern time, we're going to get the Jolts report. That's the job openings and Labor Turnover report.

Very important. that job openings report is expected to show 10 million, five hundred and Eighty Four thousand jobs. That is going to be less than the prior release of 11 million. But then again, we don't know how much this a labor uh, forecasting really matters given that private leading indicators of data suggest yeah, things are probably not as hot as they appear.

Uh, because we're starting to see websites like Indeed.com post less aggressive hiring attempts or their advertising less for hiring. Basically everything seems to be inflecting substantially downwards when it comes to actually hiring. So this jolts report, which is again, the government's data might be relatively lagging once again. Then on.

Thursday We'll get initial jobless claims. We keep sitting around 190 000 jobless claims, which is way lower than what economists are really expecting to actually show weakness and how in joblessness. But then again, this is a very lagging indicator. So more interestingly, these are the interesting ones.

We're going to get the actual Labor report on the 10th at 5, 30am Pacific 8, 30 Eastern time I will be live streaming that potentially from Florida Uh, that's right, I'm expecting to go to Florida This week we got to look at some real estate for my housing startup. You can learn by the way, every kind of perspective that I have for making money in either real estate or stocks or Building Wealth or making more money at your job by the course is linked down below. But I will be exploring for my real estate startup. Florida Real estate places ha ha.

Literally the weather's a lot warmer than where it is in the rest of the country, but real estate's also doing phenomenal there. But anyway, I'll be streaming that live at 5 30 a.m Uh, Pacific Time 8 30 A.m Eastern time. We're expecting 215 000 jobs, unemployment rate stable at 3.4 215 000 jobs, by the way, will be less than the 517 000 jobs we got last time. I will also be looking at average hourly earnings Very important.

We expect that to be stable at 0.3 percent. That's probably one of the most important numbers is a stable 0.3 percent of the month over month. Because the year over year is expected to come in a little hot thanks to just sort of year or your numbers. We're looking at 4.7 versus the last report of 4.4 so that'll show an increase.

but as long as that month over month remains stable at 0.3 percent should be okay. Maybe we'll even get a Miss there and come in at point two. Then of course on the 14th, which I believe is a Tuesday The following: Tuesday we're going to get CPI that is the Consumer Price index month over month prior. 0.5 survey says 0.4 that's still very hot.

0.4 still represents 4.8 percent annualized inflation. Don't talk to me about exponents. Annualizes always times 12. if you do the math, you'll see why.

anyway. Cpix Food and Energy month over month point four a match of the prior for the expectation year over year. Oh, this actually moved up a little bit year over year. The prior release was 6.4 The last time I checked the survey was sitting at 5.9 It's actually moved up to now six percent.

CPI X Food and Energy year over year. Prior release: 5.6 This survey 5.4 So you can see you're kind of seeing a very, very slow softening on some of these numbers. which isn't great, kind of implies that sort of stickiness for inflation. In my opinion, as long as we don't get some kind of horrible outlier like a 0.6 month over month uh, or something insane, uh, which would really be 0.6.7 Whatever, we should be able to confirm that we're in the direction of not Paul Volcker.

However, we are in the direction of higher for longer, Baby, higher for longer. And who doesn't want to be higher for longer? I Mean the fading effects of inflation are just anyway. Uh, okay. so uh.

then after that, uh, we will of course have the Federal Reserves Open Market uh. committee meeting and press conference. The most important one here is going to be uh, the 22nd. That is the date you want to Mark a calendar.

For that, that would be an 11 A.M or Pacific Time 2 P.m Eastern time on the 22nd. Write that one down. I'll be streaming that as well CPI Jobs Fab will be streaming on the 15th, which is literally the very day after CPI comes out. we'll get PPI Uh, that is the producer price inflation number.

We're expecting that to be point three percent month over month. well down from the 0.7 prior core. Uh X Food and Energy slightly higher 0.4 but still down from the 0.5 prior. And by the way, that's the Ides of March March 15th.

It's also the day Chachi PT is supposed to be introducing new stuff. Uh, Anywho, Ppix, Food, Energy Trade 0.6 prior 0.3 survey so we'll see. that would be nice. So if we could just get a stable CPI stable PPI If they could just meet these expectations I don't I don't need a big, you know, like like a big thank you or whatever.

like some kind of big low read or whatever to pump stocks in the short term. Uh, as long as we're not going towards Paul Volcker I'm very happy with my investing thesis. My investing thesis is not going to do well if we have Paul Volcker. No investing thesis is going to do well if we hit Paul Volcker other than short sell and cash.

but I don't think we're going to a Paul Volcker. I Think we are going to go through a Nike Swoosh unstable recovery that is going to substantially favor stocks with Big PP How hard is it to just ask for a reward for having Big? PP That's all we're asking for. We just want to be rewarded for having a large PP because large pricing power is exactly what we should be looking for at companies going forward in my opinion. Uh, then we also uh oh my god.

Wow. A lot of catalysts. Then we also get retail sales data on the 15th retail sales data. Rather than exp jumping three percent because of that stupid January data we talked about, we're actually going from three percent to just 0.2 percent.

I'm telling you folks, it's like the the January numbers are just insane. Retail sales X Auto 0.3 is the survey from 2.3 in the prior good. Lord Business inventories come out the same day on the 15th, expected to be flat. Prior was a 0.3 increase.

So uh boy, that's uh, that's those are a lot. A lot of catalysts. very very, very big amount of catalyst. So uh, is somebody here uh writes I don't know Kevin Lots of downside to go.

Well, if we get towards Paul Volcker, you might rewrite. You might be right. Uh, check here. listen to the story from Fox on this train derailment and I'll comment on it.

but I really have to go to the bathroom so I'll be right back in. East Palestine Last night's incident in Springfield about 230 miles west of the first incident, prompting officials to declare a temporary shelter in place for everyone within one thousand feet of the train. That order is now lifted as both Norfolk Southern and the Springfield Fire Department say nobody was injured and no hazardous materials were on the board. Um, at the time of the incident, officials are expected to give an update a little later.

Today in Minnesota Court is forcing USA Power Lifting to reverse its transgender policy which did not allow transgender women to compete with biological women. Oh my goodness, The court says the transgender female athletes risk of mental health problems offset their biological. Advantage USA Powerlifting Now considering an appeal, saying their policies are based on the significant difference and capabilities of trans women and biological women and those are headlights. So if you put on a dress and I lift weights with you but you wear a dress but you are not mentally well, you're that's gonna make it equal.

like what is going on. My takeaway from this is and I'm not taking a shot a Minnesota Judge Minnesota Court Decided that to throw out the policy that prevented this from happening before. Yeah, so it's not a shot in Minnesota what it is, it should be. Well, I there.

Just because you're a judge doesn't mean you have good judgment. We we? You know, a black robe does not make one Wise that's and the judge appears to know more about what's good for weight lifting other than the weightlifting. Association Okay, I'm sorry I I Yeah, yeah, that was okay. too much coffee I'm sorry I I that rarely happens.

Uh, but anyway I was able to listen while I was uh there. and I did also read about the train derailment. uh this morning. Uh, the same company north of Southern? uh, same company.

another 20 train cars derailed. Supposedly this one didn't have toxic material on board. Also worth noting that, uh, the the prior uh uh rail car with toxic material actually wasn't a high toxic like Hazmat train car setup. Uh, so it may not have fallen under a lot of regulations that called for more scrutiny for toxic carrying train cars.

And that's because the chemicals themselves really weren't deemed to be classified as toxic in themselves. It really became toxic when they decided to light them on fire because what a mess. Uh, and then you know I've already made a video on my opinion on the whole biological men, biological woman, that women thing. I'd prefer not to go down that road right now.

again. you could just type that into YouTube meet Kevin biological woman and uh, yeah, you'll get my take on that. All right. Next up, we have a question here.

uh uh on House Hack. Uh uh Okay, so I think it's a fair question? Here is: how is House Hack different from Grant Cardone All right, massively different. First of all, Grant Cardone's business is coward on Capital is a syndication and syndications. What they do is they're really a partnership so you identify a property.

General Generally and there have been some allegations of this and I've seen some numbers around this, but I Don't want to confirm that this is the case, but there have been some ideas that maybe Cardone will buy a let's say 20 million dollar apartment building and then sell it to his own company for 23 million dollars and sort of pocket the difference. and you can kind of scale that numbers I Don't know. Uh, now it's that's okay to do if you're improving the condition of the property. but if you're really doing nothing other than putting your brand on it.

probably not the best argument for suggesting the property's value just increased because you just put your name on it. But anyway, that assign those are just some allegations. We don't know if those are those are absolutely true. If that happens all the time, we don't But the point is, let's say then you have this 23 million dollar building and then you buy it as a partnership.

You buy it as a partnership. Then you get distributions. so you get, uh, depreciation. You have to deal with the tax.

uh, that you have to get your K1 and your distribution letter you have to deal with, uh, the fact that you're a partner essentially so you. It complicates your taxes a little bit. But the big thing that you want to remember with a syndication is you're usually a partner, a limited partner and you're looking at, uh, probably somewhere between, uh, Well, the traditional institutional model is what's called, um, a two and twenty. So like you'll see like two percent asset under management fee and then you'll see a 20 take from the manager.

So that could be like the Cardone in this example on any kind of appreciation that occurs on the property or extra cash flow above a certain point. In the case of Cardone I believe the fees are about one percent uh for the asset, but he takes somewhere between 30 to 35 percent of the appreciation and the cash flow above a certain point. The fees are very, very high in my opinion for the personal investor. And what this really is is it's a way to invest in real estate without you having to do anything right? That's really what that is.

that's not necessarily bad. I Personally think syndications are extremely expensive, but hey, maybe if you could find somebody who can promise you a really good deal or or whatever, you actually think it's a good deal. Fantastic. House Hack is not.

You Investing in real estate is completely different. Uh, and so I'm not even competing in the syndication space. So in my opinion, these are so different it's not like one versus the other even though you're asking that question. I Think that's because people are like, oh, you both promote stuff on YouTube like Okay, that's fine.

Uh, but but the similarities really stop there because House Hack my real estate startup uh, is a company that really wants to create. uh, and we've got a path for this and all the details in our slide deck and everything will be coming out for our reg. a fundraise probably between April to June I'm hoping for May maybe even April if we can get it out. we're already raising money from accredited investors to learn more at Househack.com non-accredited coming up.

But uh, really, the goal is, how can we make House Hack the Vanguard of real estate? In other words, rather than making money off of people's fees, we're trying to eliminate or map massively reduce fees that exist in real estate. and there are ways we can do that by arbitraging, uh, basically fixer-uppers what I call Wedge deals and actually adding value to them, stabilizing them, and then figuring out from there how can we take portfolios whether they're multi-family or single family, and, uh, give people an opportunity to invest in them at basically potentially low to no fees. That's essentially becoming the Vanguard of real estate or the Robin Hood if you will of real estate, right? Commission free trading, right? That kind of idea. So House Hack is a company that is, you're investing in so you're investing in stock in a company.

It's not. It's not ownership in real estate, it's ownership in a company. and the company is creating a platform for making investing in real estate low fee and extremely accessible. That's what Househack is now.

House Hack will own real estate. Bare minimum. We think we would be like in Invitation Homes where we could just buy real estate and huddle it. That was sort of the original uh idea as like the bare minimum? that's that's already easy enough in my opinion.

Knock on wood hashtag? No guarantees. But but we think we can actually take that idea and expand it even more. And instead of being a company that potentially trades for two times book, we think we could be a company that trades for, you know, 10 20 times book depending on what kind of platform we could create. Uh, so we're really excited about that.

But but as you can see from my definition, we're not a syndication. It's it's A. It's a company. It's a totally separate.

It's totally different. It's more. It's much more similar to if Vanguard were public you investing in Vanguard than it is you investing in a partnership on some real estate building where a promoter puts their name on it and takes you know a 30 feet or whatever. Uh, very, very different from that.

So hopefully that gives a little bit of clarity because uh, while not providing all the details yet, uh, because we're working those through to make sure we have a very, very clear set of messaging for you. And and not only uh uh, SEC uh reviewed, but attorney approved marketing pamphlets, and and you know, projections. We haven't released projections before and and this time we will. So all of the people who are accredited who have been investing uh, we've been very clear, like there are no projections, We? we don't.

We don't know, we're so early, We don't know. Now those people who've been investing early, they get a benefit they've been getting. basically free call options. not really call options you could read the PPM to understand what they are, but basically like warrants which are like call options on a company for free for investing earlier.

Uh, and we're raising money at a one-to-one valuation. So there's there's you know, in my opinion, you're at a position where there's zero dilution day one, with the exception of sort of minor little fees or whatever uh, for for filing fees or whatever. Uh, but uh well. The beauty about that is my opinion is, look, you know, the basic idea is that if a company sells for one times book, there's really no value that you're even putting on the company.

You're just basically raising cash, which is phenomenal. It's a great way to get in as an investor and we're going to maintain that one-to-one ratio for uh, for for the reg. A There's no company dilution like usually people put in. you know, 10 bucks into a company that represents nine dollars for the company and the idea and one dollar for the actual cash.

the company gets. That's called dilution right? That's like you raise 20 million dollars at a 200 million dollar valuation. You know, ninety percent of that just went to sort of brand and the idea. In this case 100 goes to cash with househack which we think is wonderful.

Uh and and it's the biggest thank you that we could give to our the people who watch us on. YouTube So for us us we look at not only the valuation we were raising at but also with the future. What the future could be is is really phenomenal. I mean again, no guarantees but a one-to-one valuation.

Worst case scenario: should we think at least double to be like a worst case scenario with sort of like Invitation Homes or whatever where you buy and huddle real estate because they sell for you know, depending on where the market is somewhere around two times a book. but if you actually create a a platform a technology you create sort of that Vanguard of real estate, it can be substantially higher than that. What that is we don't know because it hasn't been done before, you know. and then and then people are like oh, how is this different from from like Zillow or open door I mean in my opinion, massively different as well.

I'll just very briefly explain that we're not flipping homes on the market. We're not reselling homes with agents. We're not. You know, we're buying homes with agents.

and wholesalers. Anyone who wants to sell, send us deals is fine. The United States has become very, very small by the way. after flying around, as much as we have been, we're going to Florida this week at Tech Support Florida Real Estate.

We're going going to have a very Diversified portfolio of real estate that we're going to use as sort of the basis for the platform we're creating. But we're not trying to flip homes uh in the way that Zillow or opened or do where I mean just watch some of my videos from Househack where we walk through Open Door listings and you just have this complete embarrassment of a property listing. We don't want to put properties on the market. We don't want to deal with that.

We want to buy properties, rent them out, stabilize them, and then use that as a basis for how can we create the Vanguard of real estate? Now we have a path for that. Obviously no guarantees, but we are creating something that hasn't been created before, so we're very excited about that. Uh, obviously there's there's risk with any kind of uh investment. But yeah, I Want to make that clear because I think the most common questions I get are when can non-accredited investors invest We're thinking between April and uh June hopefully April that's the goal, but it just depends on when the SEC review goes through.

uh and uh. and then by that point we'll have uh. We'll have a lot more information as well, but that gives you at least some differences. Somebody here asked what happened to the AI software.

Yeah, so look in my opinion, AI is like a buzzword that that people use. Every company should be using AI so we don't develop the actual AI right? That's what Google does like. We use Google as the basis for our Ai and then we use Google's basis. It's kind of like using the API from chat GPT which we could use as well and using that as the basis for building your own tools on that.

and so we have that right. For example, we have a deal finder. We call it the wedge Finder which is built on the the the AI that Google has created and then we train their models to create our own essentially AI uh based on our training. So think about it.

kind of like you buy an Optimus robot from Tesla Uh, and then you train it to do exactly what you want. You know, maybe you just want it to sit in your office and kind of move its hand up and down I Don't know. Then it gets really good at doing that. Like what? Whenever you train, the AI to do is is your thing.

So that's what we do right? And we actually think I Mean obviously every company should be thinking about this. but AI can be fantastic for preventive profit Property Management deal finding uh evaluation I Don't think it's anywhere close to yet on valuation, but potentially could be somewhat useful. Uh, so there's a lot of work uh, in perfecting to do for AI but that'll all happen over the next decade. You know that's not something that you have to like.

pull out of your butt today and say oh my God we got the best AI in the world. Anybody who says that today is like no, no, you're lying AI ain't that great? Yes AI yet without without real, uh, human involvement anywhere near at this point. uh, in in my opinion. So I'm very excited about that.

Uh, very very excited. So uh, but speaking about uh, dilution, uh I will be posting in full the boxable video today. I'm just gonna post the full interview. uh and maybe in the future I'll do sort of a more cut up version of it.

but I'm just gonna post the entire thing. It's like an hour and a half long. but I want you to pay a specific attention to though is remember how we've talked about dilution already in in this segment here. Uh, something to to consider is is the valuation at Boxable and then you have to determine yourself.

If you think that's worth it, you know this is not me trying to like compare to basketball I have nothing to do with Boxable I'm not invested, not boxable I'm not affiliate a boxable I I was solely doing some quick valuation math. uh, and off the top of my head I if I remember correctly, it was something like if you invested a million dollars into boxable uh, today, that would be worth roughly 330 dollars of cash. So in other words, you would be paying 999 777 in dilution which is basically just brand value for boxable. Uh, because I was thinking about it I'm like, well, what if I invested a million dollars right now into boxable Like how much cash does that get me right? and yeah, okay, look straight up like to be blunt in comparison.

It shows you if you put a million dollars into a house hack, it literally equals a million dollars of cash, right? Yes, Yes, I will compare like I will selflessly compare shamelessly, Compare myself and say if you put a million dollars in the house like it equals a million dollars in cash, you pay zero for my ideas or the brand or whatever, right? a little bit for like fees or like a little expenses obviously that have already been incurred. duh uh but but there's no, there's no like brand value that is included in that. Whereas here, a million dollars in the boxable equals 330 dollars of cash and that's because they're trying, they're raising money at like over three billion dollars in value. It's like oh okay, so you really have to believe in the idea.

Uh, so so anyway, that that's sort of my thought, uh, my thesis. So anyway, I'll post that video. uh, you know later today. uh, you know, maybe even this morning.

I'll just post it. So, so stay tuned for that. and uh, and you'll see. how do you make money on House Hack? Yeah, fair question.

Uh, somebody writes I used to work at Boxable. you're not too far off. I won't add any commentary to that. So how do you make money on house? Yeah, that's actually probably.

uh, the thing we're most excited about. And I'm not prepared to reveal that right now because it would be somewhat anti-competitive but uh, we think there are, uh, massive opportunities for the next 20 years to milk massive amounts of cash flow while at the same time becoming the Vanguard of real estate. Now even me saying that that sounds too good to be true. But let's just say, with the vision that we have I'm betting my entire net worth on it.

Everything I have my car, my house, my plane, uh, my net worth my stocks everything I own I am betting uh on house hack because I will keep uh, you know throwing everything I have at house hack because I believe in it so much I I Think the idea that we have at Bare Minimum is is a phenomenal uh competitor to invitationals. That's like the bare Minimum in my opinion. that's the that's the safety net that's like that's like oh our Ambitions didn't work out. we're falling to the level of Social Security right? like or I shouldn't say show security I should say like Medicare because it's like crap went to Poverty that's sort of the baretto but with the big visions that I have I think the investment that I'm making going all in uh, risking everything that I have for for House Hack is is because I believe the idea we have will be uh, a multi-billion dollar idea.

So I'm I couldn't be more excited. I mean let me put it this way, let me put it this way: you'd have to be an idiot to spend 13 million dollars on a plane yourself and sign on that debt yourself and pay for flights yourself. For a company that is I pay all of the flights for House Hack right now. every dime of flights it's paid for by Kevin So I can fly around and make sure we have the best start for House Hack.

You'd ever be an idiot to do that unless of course you thought that was going to become a multi-billion dollar company in the future. So that's what I believe. Now people say I'm crazy but then you know we'll see Uh yeah, you can invest internationally into House Hack. Will House Hack come to? North Korea Um, you know Korea hack might be a couple decades before we get there, but uh, we were.

we were joking. Uh about like, uh, well, actually not really joking. but we were kind of like how can we invest in Canada Now that Canada has, um, sort of banned foreign investors, we're kind of like is it time for househack.a Anyway, sorry bad joke Anyway, uh so that gives you a little bit of an update. I appreciate the question I think it's a good question.

So uh, uh, there we go. But he says paid for by Kevin's Media Company not actually Kevin I mean it's really one, nearly one in the same right? I mean if you think about it, my media business right now is taxes a pass-through entity. So the money that I make from uh, you know what I think are really good programs. by the way, like it's not like, like the stuff in the programs, the stuff that I actually do right my stocks and psychology, money group, and my real estate course but do it yourself Property Management courses Those courses are things that I actually do and actually use to make money like that's that's the that's the basis of House Hack, right? Like you want to know the strategies house going to employ Zero to millionaire of course it's like a perfect way to see that.

but but yeah, look, the money that I make goes into right now an S corporate structure in the future of micro C Corp Media stuff. but it's basically a pass-through entity. so I uh, received that money and then I pay expenses, right? Uh, but uh, you know what? I don't know how much that really matters I mean you could make the argument uh, that, uh, the you know, yeah, uh, the media business covers it. Uh, you know which Which we probably should just make that argument I Could just clarify that now that yeah, the media business pays that.

Uh, which again, is the S Corp But that just means I get less pass-through money from my media business, right? So I don't know how much of a difference that really makes. Uh, whether whether it's mediabiz or Kev because again, like I am the media Biz right? Uh, so like pretty much everything I do is is the video I don't I don't know if that matters. So uh, you know it's yeah. I mean of course, obviously it's a write-off for the media Biz right? because I make Instagram content or YouTube content.

Yeah, I mean obviously there's a there's the argument that hey, well, you know the media business can operate because I'm able to be back in the studio regularly, right? Uh, I Think there's a there's a very clear argument there that the media business is only able to keep going because I'm able to fly around the way we are. So, but I don't know that that really matters that much. Uh, anyway. so uh, but hey, look I I'm all for transparency so we'll just make it very clear.

uh. House Hack does not pay plane. What we call it's the My S Corp is called the pathrath organization doing business as me Kevin that pays for the plane, takes the tax write-off for doing so, creates brand value or whatever you want to call it advertising value for for the channel uh, or for Instagram or whatever. and maybe the program's on building your wealth and enables me to make this content and then whatever I get left over is is what I have left over.

Now remember I personally signed on the debt and you could look this up. Uh, you know, like my wife and my names are on it so we're on the hook for it. But anyway, I always want to be very clear about that. Uh yeah.

so we've been audited already. Uh, that's very normal when you're trying to uh file for with the SEC you have to have audited financials. So DB McKinnon already did our first audit. Uh, but the first audit only goes through I think it's September 30th.

Uh, so we are completing our next audit within the next week and that's what we're going to send to the SEC. So that way the SEC gets a full audit. I'm not sure if it goes I think it goes through the either the end of January or the end of December But either way, yes. obviously when you do a reggae, you have audited financials.

Uh, so yes, they will be audited by uh, by a big four auditing company. So uh, all right, let's move on. Thank you for those questions. Very very good question.

Very fair, very reasonable. I'll always answer them next. we need to wait. Oh boy, there's a lot to talk about.

All right, stand by. somebody says meet Kevin I Already have an ETF All right. So we talked forecasts. Oh yeah, now we gotta talk.

Okay, yeah, this is a big one. All right. Now we gotta talk about Ukraine How much money has been spent? Are sanctions working? Who's really supporting? Ukraine How much money has the United States spent on Ukraine What does the world think? What is the world doing? What's going on with Ukraine Now this is a big deal because obviously we've got an election cycle coming up in 2024 and a lot in my opinion is going to have to do with Ukraine So you've got to know about it. Not only do you have to know about it because it's going to be part of our election cycle, obviously there's a massive amount of loss of life which is terrible happening as well, but we have to be aware of what the implications could be for the ending of the war or the continuation of the war in Ukraine.

So first, it's worth remembering that: Joe Biden at the beginning of this war talked about how Joe how uh, Vladimir Putin could not stay in power after his invasion into Ukraine and initially there was worldwide support for basically beating Russia, potentially going as far as calling for regime change in Russia, maybe even as far as the assassination of Vladimir Putin Yeah, what's happening recently is almost the complete opposite. In fact, now, according to the Wall Street Journal a massive piece, they just released the French and German government realized that the best solution is not trying to defeat Russia, but it is rather to push for peace talks in Russia. Now, so far, Olaf Schultz the Chancellor of Hegemony Deutschland and Joe Biden have showed publicly a very United front against Russia and they've publicly been promising massive amounts of either monetary uh, or military support for Ukraine. However, in private, France and Germany some of the biggest players in the EU block are starting to push for negotiated end in Russia.

That's because initially Russia seemed very isolated. Only four countries initially backed Russia in their incursion into Ukraine. However, many more countries are now moving to a very neutral stance, viewing this as really a Regional Conference or a conflict that may continue for a while into the future, and the world is really becoming much more fragmented. see Initially, the world seemed very United in the number of sanctions that were going to help block semiconductors and aircrafts, and even Automotive Parts getting to Russia.

However, those sanctions haven't really devastated Russia as much as we had thought they would. mostly because guess what? Countries like Kazakhstan China and Turkey or Kazakhstan Kazakhstan whatever. However, you want to say it. sorry for my mispronunciation here.

Uh, are starting to make up the difference and the shortfall And that's because the world is starting to flip around. Sanctions: Take a look at this. look at this particular chart here. from Bloomberg ship exports to Russia Soar Russia is sourcing more semiconductors through third countries in Kazakhstan Turkey and Serbia look at the inflection point.

the inflection point If we draw this right here here and here, we're all the beginning of the war. So while at the beginning of the war, we didn't actually see a lot of countries Provide support or chips to Russia Now all of a sudden, Russia is filling up the gap of chips that they were originally getting from the United States from other countries. In other words, other countries are realizing. wait a minute.

If we can import the American semiconductors and just re-export them for a premium to Russia why would we not take that potential profit? And that's exactly what's happening. Because the world is thinking, wait a minute. There's money to be made here. and ultimately, we need to think about our own country rather than every other country's desires.

And right now, American Sanctions and European sanctions are really being seen as the desire of NATO But not every country necessarily agrees with that. Russia's chip imports from the United States fell from about 163 billion dollars to sorry 163 million dollars. it's not that high sign in billions million dollars to about 60 million dollars. but now the rest of the world is starting to make up that Gap by importing U.S and European-made ships and then just re-exporting them to Russia The same is being done with cars.

Look at what China is doing initially: Russians have their own vehicles and their own Automotive Parts But now what's happening. Chinese passenger vehicles are replacing Russia's supply chain Gap because it's profitable to do so North Korea is sending artillery shells to arm Russia because it's profitable to do so Iran is providing Kamikaze drones and is planning on building a multi-billion dollar Factory to manufacture Kamikaze drones outside of Moscow to help the war effort because it is profitable for Iran to do so now Russia still lacks higher Tech equipment like Precision missile missiles, night vision, goggles, surveillance drones are lacking. but what's happening? more and more countries are filling in the gap. India remains pretty neutral because on one hand, they're trying to attract investment into India from companies like Apple and Tesla who are moving from China to potentially India or are considering adding fabrication capabilities in India while at the same time, India is also helping Supply Russia with equipment that they're exporting to Russia and also at the same time importing Russian oil which Russian Oil sanctions have been nearly a complete abject failure.

See back in the pre-World War II days, sanctions actually meant something. We could actually sanction a company and they would have an impact. Yet today. what do we have? Well, we have individuals like an analyst: Mr Paul Sankey Paul Sankey He uh works at Sankey research.

He's an oil analyst and what does he say? He says quote The oil price caps and the sanctions against Russia were quote invented by bureaucrats with Finance degrees. None of them really understand oil markets. The sanctions against Russia from oil for oil have been quote a total bomb. a complete failure.

So in other words, the world is basically just adapting to a world at war. or rather Russia at war with Ukraine And now we have to also ask ourselves how much is Russia really capable of doing well. So far, Russia is capable of fighting in Crimea and Southeast Ukraine That's it. Russia hasn't been able to get much further now.

Sure, it could be argued that the reason they haven't been able to get much further is because of Western support, but whatever the reason is Russia Whom you know, you've got a lot of folks in America clamoring about saying oh my gosh, Russia is a nuclear threat Oh no, Russia is going to attack the United States in Western Europe Uh uh uh oh no, we're screwed. If we don't defeat Russia All of Russia so far has not been able to get any further than Southeastern Ukraine and Crimea Ukraine which this is not a slam on Ukraine. This is just this is just I mean Google it yourself. Ukraine has one of the it probably actually has the worst corruption rating in Europe and one of the poorest countries in Europe that is not a bag on Ukraine.

It's just to say a country that is rated at that level is having is basically holding off Russia. So how much of a threat really is Russia when we think about it that way, are they really a nuclear Loose Cannon So it's worth thinking about that because so far as much as we want the conflict to end and I'm a big fan of this conflict, being over, this idea that oh, we're about to go into a world war three seems a little extreme because if World War Three is starting with, we can't really chop away Southeastern Ukraine then World War III is is not like a World War. it's a regionalized conflict. Now that's important to consider.

And again, it's not to say that Ukrainian sovereignty shouldn't be respected, but it is an argument that Russia is not doing so fantastically well enough to really create concerns for World War III and Ukraine isn't able to get him out of Southeast throu