Welcome back to meet Kevin report number 41. this is incredible. Uh, also. uh, some of you have been asking for just sort of a brief update on timing for my startup.

So I'm going to start with that, then we'll talk ta Then we're going to talk. uh, we've got a lot of crypto updates Tesla updates fed updates. uh, real estate updates. There's a lot to cover so we'll get right into it.

Uh, so first regarding uh, house hacks, some of you have been asking for the timing right now. It looks like if I sort of Drew like a a bell curve it would look probably most likely that may is sort of the peak of the bell curve for likelihood for when we're doing the reggae with uh April being sort of the left side and then June being the right side of that. So hopefully hopefully that's sort of the curve. Uh, but that's what we're looking like Uh, and uh, that's all obviously predicated on uh, well, how perfect our filing is because that limits back and forth with the SEC and then what the SEC thinks So we're pretty excited and I can't wait for to bring that to you obviously.

Uh, that's why we're working pretty hard it on every day some folks have been asking hey and I always like to be very transparent. Some people have been asking uh Hey like you're flying a lot who's paying for all of this and it's a totally fair question, especially since I think there's a lot of like shadiness and Jade that goes on uh in the world? uh and so I just want to be very transparent as well I posted this video yesterday uh of my plane taking off along with this tweet here 24th takeoff in three weeks. Much like with my Governor campaign, I'm paying 100 of the cost of my jet, not my startup I'm all in on my startup moon or bankrupt. Wish me luck, it'll be hard work and a lot of luck.

Love you and happy! Friday So I posted that uh with with some videos here of the the takeoff from the inside or the outside which is pretty cool. uh so uh but anyway I wanted to provide that as a little bit of an update since some people were asking and uh uh and uh yeah, that's that's my goal. So Dear Mr uh this person who has literally the name flexing4 in and his title here says who cares LOL he's probably not even laughing I'm laughing at my own joke but not yours. uh but yeah.

anyway I think it's actually very important and I think there are thousands of people who care because uh I think transparency is the most important thing, especially for a business. and if somebody says Hey like going all in on my own business, you know you better actually be doing that. So uh, that's that's my take. Now that doesn't mean I don't want to be clear about that.

Doesn't mean I've liquidated every asset that I have because I'm basically just risking everything I have for my biz. Uh, because I think this is, uh, this is a big deal. pretty big opportunity. So I'm really, really excited about that.

Uh, anyway. uh, so we've got a few, uh, multiple updates. Yeah, just I don't know if you just joined, but I literally just gave that update. Uh, anyway.

okay, so let's go. Somebody's like any update on the reggae and I'm like, literally just talked about that. Anyway, all right. so uh, multiple things to cover.

So let's go ahead and get started. First thing I really want to cover is some ta. So let's get started here because some cool things have been happening. Okay, first things: Technical Analysis: Holy Smokes.

Look at what the markets just did and we're only going to look at this from a technical point of view. Technical means lines, fundamentals mean well. you're going into Financial reports which most people don't do I obviously try to do that every single day in my course member live streams sometimes on the channel as well. Though fundamental analysis, it takes a little.

It takes a little bit. You know depth and understanding because there are ways you can get juked with fundamental analysis. We're actually going to be talking about that regarding how you could get juked by investing in a company like Silver Aid Capital and whether or not you're even interested in investing into a company like that. It's really amazing to see how the fundamentals could really be rigged, even though they're technically legally rigged.

that way, it's it's remarkable. So that's why using technical analysis. Uh, in my opinion, it can be phenomenal as well, because you can get away from you can sort of Escape Uh, the the trickery that goes into fundamentals and look broadly here at what the market is doing. What I Really enjoy about this downtrend over here is that obviously the downtrend on the NASDAQ this being the QQQ has broken.

We also just tested approximately that 23 retracement line. And what I really enjoy here is that we had a very, very strong support level here. Uh, in that we had the same 200-day moving average as the 23 Fibonacci that set up a really strong support level. And sure enough, look what happened.

green Candlestick Yesterday, Indices were up across the board. But what's remarkable about the fact that indices were up across the board is that treasury yields had gone as high as 4.08 on Thursday really, setting up for potentially a punishing Friday. But what we actually got if I click the right button. There we go.

We actually got was every index up 1.17 on Dow 1.61 on S P NASDAQ up almost two percent. Even the Russell was up volatility index. Look at that down at 18.4 This is remarkable. The vix is plummeting at the same time often measured as the Fear index and then over here you see bonds right back to 3.96 now still really high.

but look at that, an 11.5 basis point decline in the 10-year now they're Some of the Ism numbers that came out were a little less bad than potentially they were feared given that some of the numbers that came out three days ago were a little scary and that's why things started pumping. And so we saw a little bit of data support here as well. But personally, I wouldn't be surprised if from a technical point of view, we are confirming this trend. Now that's fantastic.

That doesn't mean we're going to have a very smooth Nike Swoosh style recovery which I regularly talk about that we might you know, we've basically had this long period down. Now what we're looking for is a nice long period to the upside, but it's going to come with volatility. and I think technical basis. We could probably trade between these Fibonacci lines here and expect that every single month we're going to be hanging our hats on the next report.

So for example, the Catalyst you should already have written down on a Post-It note on your desk or wherever. Obviously it's going to be March 10th. That's your labor report. That's this week.

So March 10th is this week. That's that's going to be pretty important because we're going to look for wage price increases and then obviously what's the actual result of the labor report that is going to be the 10th? Then uh, right after that I Think it's Tuesday up Tuesday On the 14th, we'll get our CPI and then the 22nd, we'll have the FED Now, even if we go through those reports and let's say we got reports that said look, things are going to take a little bit longer, We're going to need some more patience, but despite needing a little bit more patience, the trend is that inflation is going away and the market is spending through the recession. Maybe we won't actually hit a very, very deep recession. If anything, we have something shallow yes, Staples and retailers get hit.

But beyond that, what happens. Hopefully we end up testing our next retracement line here. now. what would be phenomenal about that is, even if we hit that next line, ideally we, we exceed it a little bit.

I Would not be surprised if what ends up happening and this is just a prognostication about them. You know, four three, four weeks out is once we cross that 38.2 percent level up here. I Wouldn't be surprised if we potentially then retrace back to it. Well, of course, then we wait for the data releases in April That's going to be 2023.

In a nutshell, in my opinion. I Think it's a slow chug up and while we're chugging along on the up, we're going to keep falling back to these levels. especially when we get a double support like we did here where the simple 200-day moving average literally underpinned the 23.6 percent. uh Fibonacci retracement.

In my opinion, this is just my opinion in my opinion for us to actually drop back to this zero percent Phoebe level, which was Hell okay, this was hell in October back in October. Remember the sentiment now: I'm purposely backing away from sort of what the FED is saying or fundies or things that are going on. I'm talking sentiment and technicals. Okay, the sentiment in October was we are going to get Paul Volckert.

Inflation is Not under control. We've been juked too many times. We got juked in the spring, We got juked in the summer. We got juked in the fall and that was basically the Jukes were.

Oh, inflation's going down. No, it's not. It's going higher. Oh no.

Inflation's going down. Oh no, it's going higher. We had those fears that actually established real opinions that we could potentially face a 1980s Paul Volcker environment. That fear is going away.

And it's my opinion that the more that fear goes away, the more we say. Now, we're not going to get Paul Volckert. We are going to deal with inflation that's higher for longer and rates that are higher for longer. But in my opinion, the more Paul Volcker goes away, the more the market goes up.

Now Do I think we can go to all-time new highs? Uh, you know, just because inflation is slowly going away? Absolutely not. It's going to take a while and I It would not make sense for us to be at all time new highs until we really get inflation back to, you know, relatively on the path to two percent. Probably not until my guest end of 2023, maybe early 2024. And there are red flags right? I Mean look at this.

Look at the what happened with break evens yesterday. as soon as Treasury plummeted yesterday. What happened with break evens, well deployment or the break even skyrocketed I Mean look at where we sit right now. we sit on a break-even level well above the October levels that we faced.

The October levels were what aligned with the bottom of the market. October is when the NASDAQ hit the bottom. A lot of stocks hit their bottom around October Some stocks hit their bottom around over here June and July Uh, and our break even inflation rate is now at almost 2.8 percent. Now obviously we're a far cry from what we had earlier the year in the year, but this is this trend is not fantastic.

I Will say I'm not happy about this explosion of the Bond markets inflation expectation. The Bond Market here is saying dude, this is not going to be rapid disinflation. This is going to take a lot of time and there are two trains of thought here. That one train very simple is the longer it takes.

the dirtier the recession is going to be the more of an EPS crash you have. And these technicals were those are going to be. Once we get those bad earnings, those are going to be what push us back to the zero percent fit. maybe even break it lower.

And that's entirely possible. But if that is true, it's really saying that the fear in October we had was really earnings or multiples and not Paul Volcker. All right, think about that. if in October we hit lows in the stock market because we were fearful that oh no, earnings are going to go down.

Uh, or you know we were going to get some kind of multiple compression. which obviously we did. You know the first half of the crash is usually your multiple D rating. That's where you get compression.

Think understand multiples like this. Very simply: if you have ten dollars of earnings and your company is selling for 10 times earnings per share, it's a hundred dollar stock, right? 10 times the multiple of 10. 100 if you still have ten dollars of earnings, but your ten dollars turns into five dollars. Well, that's ten times five.

fifty dollar stock stock trades down 50. If now your earnings go down another 50 percent. you know from from ten dollars of earnings and you're down to five times a multiple of five. Boom, Your Stock's worth 25 bucks, right? Those are the two big fears.

and so that is sort of this traditional way to look at the stock market that the two fears that drive the stock market down are multiples in earnings. My opinion is that this bottom over here was actually not a bottom set by the fear of multiple earnings compression. Yes, that helped contribute to this, but I think we actually got pushed to these depths because of the Paul Volcker fear. And if we get if somebody came down, Jesus Christ came down right now and said we will not have a Paul Volcker.

I Would not personally be surprised if we actually sit on top of the 38.2 level. In other words, I Think this bottom part of the Phoebees over here is your Paul Volcker fear and this part of earnings over here, or this part of the market over here, the upper sort of 62-ish percent. I Think that's where your earnings and multiples are. So I think really, the part that stretched us to the bottom was Paul Walker fear.

And as that goes away, it sort of reiterates the Nike Swoosh recovery. That's my opinion now from a technical basis. Hopefully this remains to be correct. So far it is, we could do something similar over on the Spy I Actually, don't even have babies drawn on the Spy so let's go draw them together.

Uh, so let's try not to make a mess of this. Let's clean this up a little and let's see what we have here. So we're going to go with 472 32 on the spy. Oh I'm messing with, uh, the wrong item here.

This is what happens if you have too many. This is our downtrend. Let's go ahead and remove that for a moment. There we go.

Weeble Let me actually adjust this properly. 472, 32, and 346.52 There we go. Here's our Phoebe. So on the on the S P 500 on the Spy, you're actually sitting at a substantially higher level already, right? I I Personally am much more exposed to the NASDAQ style uh stocks than I am.

Uh, spy stocks I Think spy stocks actually still have a potential correction ahead of them. much like a video I covered yesterday where in the report yesterday there was basically talk about this potential 50 correction on a spot I Don't think it's going to be that brutal, but do I really think that the Spy should be trading at these levels where we're at? Uh, let's see, we're We're sitting already above the 38 uh, 0.2 level and and we've already been breaking above that into more the 61 range. Personally, not the biggest believer in that personally. I Think the Spy has the greatest risk.

Now we'll see. Big fan though personally the QQQ. So maybe I just pay attention more to this and this is sold down substantially more. By the way, yesterday in the course member livestream I Have to say we did a uh and I know we're talking ta here, but we did a fundamental on uh Salesforce Wow Wow, the fundamentals are actually really, really good over on Salesforce I Don't know why that tangent came up, but hey, you never know what you're going to get with Kevin So um, look from from a technical point of view, uh, in my opinion we could actually have a pretty nice buy the dip opportunity in the next two weeks here and my take is that it wouldn't I think it would be very difficult for and I think we could write this down I can't guarantee we could take this to the bank, but I think it's going to be very difficult to break this line the uh, the approximately 3E, 3, 13, 3, 12 line Here it's going to be very difficult to break 312 on QQQ before the 10th and the 14th.

There's there's no way in my opinion like it would be shocking in my opinion to break the 312 on QQQ before uh, the 10th or 14th because those are huge Catalyst days those are huge fear days. And remember, institutions don't buy before reports. They buy after reports because here's the thing. You have to think about it this way: institutions are very different from retail.

You can do whatever the hell you want with your portfolio. Nobody cares, it's your portfolio. an institution though. If they buy before CPI or before the jobs report and then those reports come in hot and the market.

Falls They're going to get calls from people being like you idiot, why would you buy before the report, why would you do that? I'm taking my money out of your fund. That's that's what you get with institutions. So you know there could be institutional people watching this right now and they're like, damn it Kevin you're right now. or or there's maybe some people who are like no, no, no, I'm a contrarian I do the fine.

Whatever point is. I Believe my opinion, the vast majority of Institutions or Traders or employees at trading firms have to wait until after the reports. That's why I Think we see such volatility after the reports because the institutions basically wake up and they go okay. like they don't really care that they missed the maybe three or four percent that they could have captured before the report.

They care about being part of the trend after the report. Whether that's to the upside or the downside. So uh, personally. I think from a technical point of view, if we were, if, for whatever reason, uh, between Monday and Thursday we exceeded 312 over here.

In my opinion, it's a cell. Uh, now. of course if that report comes in. Uh, really? Because I think we're like, come, probably come late Thursday I Really Think come late Thursday You don't want to be sitting above this trend line.

Uh, You want to be below 312 on the NASDAQ come after the report. It's anyone's guess if we get a soft report. Great, Fantastic. Maybe we get back to the 50 level.

Uh, which we haven't been at. we haven't been at the 50 level when we last got rejected in August the last guy rejected in August Well, we're still I mean August was was pretty wild. but anyway, uh, very clearly part of that downtrend, right? Anyway, if we can break that, or let me put it this way, the only way to really sustain this support in my opinion, is very, very positive. uh.

reports for February Inflation and jobs I Don't know if we're going to get that. I'm very confident that we're going to get 25 BP from the FED But from a technical point of view, uh, I think the only way we really sustain sitting above 312 is with positive reports here, or at least somewhat benign reports. We just need to make sure we get rid of the Paul volcker as long as there's no crazy, fearful move. To the upside: I Think we're relatively safe uh, expecting to to run over this.

Uh, if we get a terrible report. uh, depending on how bad it is, we'll depend how closely we retrace I Mean we could end up, you know, with a basic report that's not that fantastic. Wouldn't surprise me to trade sideways sitting right on that 23 6 line. a terrible report that evokes the fears of Paul Volcker.

We're going right back to the Zero Fibbies. So so there's a lot of downside there. I Would almost say there's probably more downside risk uh, than there is upside risk. Uh, just based on sort of, uh, the TA spread here.

But uh, that's just the nature of the Fibonacci retracements, right? I Mean if you're at 23.6 you only have about 15 percent of a retracement going up to the next level. whereas you've got about 23 percent of the downside so you actually have more on the FIB levels skewed to the downside risk. Uh, Anyway, so so that's sort of my the way I would be thinking about this: those Catalyst dates are going to be everywhere. Everything this this Market is solely trading off those caddy dates and uh, I I think after we get these, uh, these reports here, uh, as long as they're benign fed goes 25, we remove Paul Volcker.

My opinion: We're going to start testing and playing with that uh, that 38.2 level and maybe even riding on it. So I'm excited obviously with Ta. No guarantees, but that's what I'm seeing. That's what I'm reading.

uh and uh, and aligning with what I'm seeing from the fundamental point of view also makes sense. Doesn't mean you can't be wrong, but that's my take so hopefully that's useful from a TA point of view. Next up: I Talk crypto. Oh right, let it fall.

I Love the deals. Oh, you're terrible says someone here in the comments. Uh, someone's talking about snakes in the comments. when do you sleep at night Tangents are good.

Thank you for that. Uh, let's see. can you explain what will happen realistically if we get Paul Walker Yeah, sure. I Mean just basically briefly.

it's like it's it's hell, right? So Paul Volcker scenario means the FED has lost control. Uh, there will be other panic in the markets because that means the Fed has really, really failed. That means they were wrong about transitory inflation. They were wrong about disinflation.

They were wrong about the soft Landing The trust in the FED will go away I I I I will I like if we go Paul Volcker I'm taking two years off man. I I Don't even like that it's gonna be so shitty. Uh okay. I probably won't take off because I just can't not work.

But like you don't, you don't. You don't want to go there. Uh, I mean you're looking at uh, rates on anchoring? Uh, an actual real estate crash? Not the sort of real estate softening that we've had, but like a real real estate crash. Uh, you're you're looking at fear levels.

uh, the likes of which we haven't seen. probably since the 70s, uh, and early 80s. Uh, the trust in the dollar? I I Don't know. I mean I Think the whole world would would have issues.

So I mean the dollar would still probably rise because it'd be the safest of the crappiest you know paper currencies. but uh yeah, yeah, you don't want to go there. I mean the the low levels of the stock market that we saw in October would be a joke compared to uh, what would happen with under a real Paul Volcker scenario? You you don't even want to, you don't want to think about it Paul Volcker would not be good for Howton Paul Volcker is not good for anyone. Uh yeah, no one.

uh yeah, it just wouldn't be good. So anyway, I don't think we're heading in that direction. Fortunately, so on a brighter note, we could talk about the disasters of crypto. Oh my.

God Okay, uh, let's see here. Uh, what are you gonna do? Oh yeah, BTC right? I Want to take a quick look at BTC Bitcoin Bitcoin Bitcoin Bitcoin And then what we're also gonna do is, uh, we're gonna talk a little bit about Silvergate all right now. We got to talk Crypto and the disaster of Silver Gate Now, you might not care about Silvergate, but you should learn the lessons of what happened with Silvergate because it's a complete disaster and it's really important to pay attention to if you're an investor because I want to show you how fundamental analysis could actually do you dirty when you're looking at a business like Silvergate. Now personally, I Think you could say similar things about the fundamentals of things like Open Door Okay, but holy moly.

Molly We gotta look at Silvergate because these numbers are something else. First, Silvergate ticker symbol Si is actually down 62 this week. That's because they've warned of bankruptcy and they're actually a big player in the crypto. World Why are they a big player? Well, first, Silvergate.

A little bit of background. They were a small Community Bank in California Nobody really knew about Silvergate, but in the crypto craze, they pivoted to being a crypto Bank Essentially where essentially what they would let people do is they would say hey, look, you want to exchange. uh, you want to run a crypto exchange. Why don't you deposit the cash that you get as an exchange with our bank and you know we'll go invest that money.

And you let people basically, uh, you know you give them crypto, You take their dollars, the deposit the dollars with us. We're FDIC insured. great. We allow 24 7 transacting so we'll make it easier for you basically to have an on and off ramp for crypto.

which is basically a way for you to say I've got dollars I Want to buy some Usdc? They're kind of one of the players in the background where let's say you do that through a coinbase or whatever kind of platform. Essentially, when you transfer your cash in coinbase or whomever could take that cash throw it into the Silvergate Bank. that way it's at a bank and they give you the the Usdc or whatever it is right? And so Silvergate pivoted to a crypto. Uh, nearly Crypto? Bank Uh, And they blew up because of this.

They also came out with something known as Send Leverage Scn Leverage and basically let their exchanges borrow U.S dollars in exchange for crypto assets. Yeah, Oops. But anyway, Send Leverage was really a way for uh, Silvergate to be a bridge of liquidity for the crypto. Market Because think about it.

If you have an FDIC insured bank that can essentially borrow money from the Federal Reserve banking system, lend it to exchanges who are then potentially speculating on crypto assets much like the likes of Blockfire, Voyager or whatever, Well, then what do you have? You end up having a potential bagel oopsie-doopsy And that's exactly what ended up happening. So Send Leverage was essentially this. this lending. a tool that a Silvergate had that allowed their exchanges to draw on potentially up to 1.1 billion dollars in commitments to do whatever they want.

Think about it, almost like a credit line to the crypto industry. Uh, and again. when uh, when when Silvergate took these sort of Ious? In other words, hey, we'll lend you dollars. These Ious were then backed by crypto assets, but then whatever deposits that Silvergate also had uh on hand to back the lending they were doing.

Those deposits didn't only go into safe things like the reverse repo Market or the treasury market. They went into wild things like mortgage-backed Securities which you might think. oh well, why would it be bad that bank throws money into mortgage-backed Securities Well, guess what's happened to the Bond market? Over the last well like six to 12 months it's been plummeting. That's why yields have been going up because the value of bonds has been plummeting.

So in other words, you have a company, an actual bank, a bank chartered company that used to provide liquidity for companies like FTX Coinbasecircle.com Crypto.com Krakengemini CBO Like you name it, I Mean you're talking about somewhere on 94 crypto exchanges and up to 894 different crypto institutional investors. They were the one of probably the biggest banks to serve crypto institutions. Circle was even one of the customers. which is wild because Circle is the backbone of Usdc.

and if all of a sudden your crypto dollar sort of on and off ramp goes away, then what's actually backing the stable coins? That's a big head scratcher right now. because if you're getting rid of the off ramp to get back to Dollars Are you potentially putting at risk the backing for stable coins? And the answer to that is yes, you potentially are. Now that's not to create fear, uncertainty, and doubt. you know everybody says, oh, don't worry, everything's fine with the stable coins.

But what? I Really want to show you is how things can go from fine to not fine very quickly. Now we should know that already. but take a look at this. This is Silver Gate's third Quarter SEC Filing of their financials And what's interesting here is when you jump into their third quarter financials, What you'll actually find is they have about 700 million dollars of other Investments on their assets on the assets part of their balance sheet.

Okay, this is supposed to be like safe keeping money that they have right. Assets are supposed to have value, right? Because this company, this bank is telling the SEC Hey look, we have assets with these values. This is good. We're Gucci right.

We have more assets than liabilities, right? But wait a minute. What are these assets? Well, let's zoom in a little bit here and these assets are quote other assets, derivative assets, intangible assets. other Investments Loans held for sale and Loans held for investment. Ah well.

what happens when those loans fail because the crypto exchanges fail. Uh-oh Then you got to take write Downs on your loans available for sale or for investment. What happens when those other Investments like bonds or whatever lose value? Uh oh, your balance sheet goes poopsie doopsy really dang fast Now I Want to show you that transition? Okay, that's that's the interesting part about this again. Whether or not you like Silvergate uh, or care about Silvergate I Think it's so important from an investor point of view to go.

Holy crap like look at this. Here's a company that says okay, this is like let me show you I'll show you an orange the extent of the fundamental analysis most people do. Okay, so most people, they literally do this. Total Assets: 15.4 billion dollars total liabilities 14 billion Well A is bigger than L, so that's a win.

That's like most of the fundamental analysis I Feel like like that probably exceeds 99 of the fundamental analysis. That actually happens because most people probably don't even open up the financials. and that's okay. that's why I try to do that here because I get it, it's tedious.

A lot of work. but then the people who do it's like well, assets exceed liabilities. Looks good to me. It's like you got to look at this and go I Like what in in the course member live streams that we do.

We do something known as like the Kevin's stress test and we take companies in any kind of asset that is just not like clearly cash or treasuries we just minus. We're just like let's just assume it's worthless because what are you gonna do? Like your intangibles are worthless if you're going bankrupt, What if your derivatives are just like option contracts and YOLO speculation or your mortgage-backed securities plummet like the Habit Well now you got a problem. see. And when you have almost 700 million dollars here of other Investments and another 1.4 billion dollars of loans held for sale, you might be setting yourself up for some big old write downs.

And this is what people forget is when they look at assets, they forget that at some point the companies may have to do what's known as a fair Market value adjustment and that's kind of exactly what happened in the Q4 report In the Q4 Report. This company. Wait. Let me go back to Q3 Really quick just to show you the comparison.

Okay, so Q3 go to their income statement, which is right here. look at their net income. Okay, the net income for this company was 43 million dollars last year, and that's in the quarter. So 43 million dollars on the quarter? That sounds great, right? 43 million dollars in a quarter That maybe annualizes out to about 120 million dollars a year of potentially net income, right? If they kept having that kind of Q3 Last Q3 they were at 24ish million dollar.

Or uh yeah. million dollars of net income. So just under about 100 million dollars of annualized income, right? Okay, well. what happened in 2024? Uh, or 2024..

What happened in Q4 2022? Oh good Lord. Net loss attributable to shareholders was one billion dollars. That's like eight to ten years of potential income. Uh, when things were actually going okay, and why is that? Well, it's because of massive write Downs that they've had on some of their assets.

You go through some of this here. You actually, uh, where did I highlight it? Uh, you can. What they basically do is they go through and they show you the breakdown of the various different loans that they had whether they were commercial or residential reverse mortgages. uh, losses that they've then, uh, adjusted for for their real estate loans, Losses that they've taken on their, uh, their their derivatives here.

Take a look at this losses on. Securities Oh yeah, here's the losses. Page Look at this. Look at this.

This is insane Losses on Securities 885 million dollars losses on derivatives. Uh, seven ish, or uh, eight point seven billion or million dollars. Uh, impairment of intangible assets. A 200 million dollar write down.

So you take these losses and impairments. It's basically showing you their balance sheet was just a bunch a funny money before their balance sheet was basically clickbait because all of a sudden you look over here and it's insane. Look at this other. Investments uh, they're well, this is other.

Investments Let me see here. where's the Securities one? Securities Here we go. Security is available for sale. Look at this.

Securities Massive write down. Right here. You can see this: Uh, you've got loans available for sale. Look at how their loans available for sale got written down.

This one not that bad. Loans for investment went down from 467 to 408, but loans held for sale went from 924 to 181. I mean massive Massive Write: Downs Other assets got written down. What is this Like 30 percent, 275 to 202.

So it just shows you how you have to be really skeptical. A skeptical about the balance sheets that companies and in my opinion, this is a huge lesson in fundamental analysis that when you're fundamentally analyzing a company, you have to understand the bones of what they're actually doing because the backbone of their actual balance sheet could be complete trash. and that's actually legal with the SEC to have that kind of massive transition in a boundary. So it's no surprise.

Now it looks like they're potentially going bankrupt. It's no surprise, there's fear that maybe Circle is potentially at risk. Whale alert by the way, showed that coinbase meant to 200 million Usdc. It almost feels like people are trying to move on chain and away from Banks USD to Usdc.

Volume is up 25 compared to normal. But again, it's raising the question of like, Okay, well, if if people are like moving more into Usdc, how are you potentially going to withdraw in the future? If if you're breaking the off ramps, you're kind of getting more and more insulated into crypto or I should say isolated would be the better word right? Where it's kind of like here's crypto. Here's the US dollar world. and it's kind of like you've got this tectonic shift where uh, dare I say there's this sort of cataclysm happening Not to make a World of Warcraft reference where basically there's this earthquake and and the two tectonic plates, if you will, are just moving apart, right? Uh, that's scary.

Now it's worth noting that this is obviously different from like algorithmic stable coins which were basically just a Ponzi scam. These supposedly are still actually backed by real dollars somewhere. U.S Banks, however, though, are kind of like I don't know if we want any kind of crypto related deposits. although some people are seeing that as an opportunity.

Uh, Signature: Uh, Bank uh. Here intending to wind down 10 billion dollars of crypto related deposits. their total deposits are eight, uh, 88 billion dollars. And and basically what you're doing is you're limiting dollar liquidity.

Hedge funds and crypto institutions are now potentially looking at Swiss banks to try to fill that void. You've got a regulatory disasters that are now even leading CZ over at Binance to suggest who you are. Maybe we should pull out of, uh, buying? Voyager And that's because of all of the sort of hotbed of financial pain uh, and and regulation that's coming. The sort of cataclysm you're getting more and more of this.

Gosh, maybe we just want to stay away from the regulation because it's actually hurting us I Mean, look at this. here. you get a Binance Voyager deal. Crypto Potato official provides an update.

This is what a U.S judge responded to an SEC attorney who failed to provide specific arguments. Deliberative is one thing, but what have you done? If there are reasons to be concerned here: I need to hear specifics So a judge is fresh, so frustrated with the SEC in the Uh Binance takeover of Voyager that the judge is freaking out at the SEC because the SEC is so gun shy they don't even really know how to say no. And so now you have CZ casting doubt on ever even being able to want to complete the Voyager acquisition deal which I personally don't trust CZ as much as I can throw him CZ I've talked about many times before and I know people get mad at me when I talk about it. but look I do my best to provide perspective.

Not always right, but I like to provide perspective personally I think uh CZ it's very convenient to. Let's just say he says oh yeah, we're gonna buy out f TX which basically stabilizes the crypto markets collapse long enough for them. Then when CZ feels okay we're good, he can just rug pull out of the FTX deal because it bought them time I don't actually think CZ ever had any intention of buying out FTX and quite frankly, I don't think he has any intention of buying Voyager digital either. I Think what they're doing is they're saying oh yeah, we're great.

We're gonna buy everyone out. One of the reasons they're doing that is because it stabilizes the entire crypto. Market The second reason they're doing that in my opinion, is because it prevents people from feeling like they have to take their money out of Binance because oh well, the finance is buying everyone up. Maybe they're the stable ones, they'll be the last one standing.

That could be true. It could be totally true that Finance ends up getting through this is the Last Man Standing I Still don't trust them, but it's possible they can survive now. It's worth also looking at some of the drama that's going on with Cece uh Forbes Just put together a piece that was, uh, not too fantastic for CZ uh but then again, you know he's really good at casting everything aside. his fud look at this finances asset shuffling eerily similar to Maneuvers By FTX Now of course there have been on chain analytics suggesting that I don't know.

Binance's stuff doesn't look as bad as FTX but some of it does rhyme with FTX Let's just look at what Forbes says. Okay, late last year, crypto markets were struggling to regain their footing. The world's biggest crypto exchange quietly moved 1.8 billion dollars of collateral meant to back its customer stable coins, putting the assets to other undisclosed uses. It's no surprise that when CZ was on CNBC and you had Becky Quick and the other cast members over there as if they're actors.

So the other journalist over at um uh at CNBC asking like hey, well, could you support a multi-billion dollar liquidity call he's like, well, I'll let the attorneys answer this I got a lot of flack for saying this guy's being dodgy. People are like come on man, let the attorneys answer it. He doesn't need to answer Cnbc's question, it's like well, then why is he on CNBC you know then then don't go, then send the attorney somebody with the answers but you don't want to give the answer because the truth is what you're doing with the money and what you're doing with these fake bailouts of companies is really just artificially trying to prop up the crypto economy long enough to to get past the bank run that was happening at Finance. Now so far it seems like they got past it, so congratulations they're they're ruse worked.

But I mean just listen to at least the allegations of Forbes and make what you want of it personally. I Think the easiest thing is look not your keys, not your crypto get off exchange right? I Think that's the simplest solution here and a lot of people are like, well, yeah, duh of course. But still, it's shocking how many people have lots of money on binance anyway. uh, they did this without informing their customers according to blockchain data examined by Forbes from August 17th to early December about the same time FTX was imploding holders of more than one billion dollars of the crypto known as Bpeg, Usdc tokens were left with no collateral for instruments that Binance claimed were 100 backed by whatever token they were pegged to.

Well, look, we've talked about this many times before. It's really, really easy to say stuff is 100 backed when you're multi-counting it. We know this has happened before. All you have to do is say, oh, look, we've got three buckets that are each worth one billion dollars.

Let's say right, and you basically say hey, maybe this is uh, Usdc over here. You know, maybe this is uh, uh, B USD whatever and I don't I don't know, maybe this is this is tether. Okay, right, let's say a Binance has a billion dollars of all this and then what they actually have. So they have 3 billion dollars here, right? But what they actually have is one billion dollars of cash.

This is. This is how the scam is played right. They're like, oh yeah, man, don't worry, our Usdc is a hundred percent backed by cash. Yes, that's true, But is all of your crap together all backed by cash? Of course not.

Of course not. So if all of these needed liquidity at the same time. Goodbye Binance, But but we know I mean like maybe I can't say of course not. I should say 99.9 My opinion, probably not.

Uh. anyway, so uh, let's see, let's take a look a little bit deeper here. So of the rated customer funds which consisted of USD stablecoin tokens, 1.1 billion was channeled to Cumberland Drw, a Chicago-based high frequency trading firm whose parent was founded in 1992 and began trading crypto in 2014.. Cumberland may have assisted Finance in its efforts to transform the collateral into its own.

Binance USD A stable coin until a Crackdown in mid-February by the New York State Department of Financial Services on stable Point issuance Finance was aggressively seeking to gain market share for its uh, dollar background, blah blah blah blah. Finance's Chief strategy officer downplays concerns about co-mingling saying there was no commingling because there's a wallet and there's a ledger which could all be tracked, you know I I Really, it drives me nuts. When you have uh, the the the institution say oh well, all our stuff is transparent. It's so not trans parent.

It's like oh yeah, here are the wallets. And then you look at the wallets and you see these insane trading moves that don't even make sense. They're designed to be transparently Arcane they're designed to confuse. That's what they exist for.

That's why when they provide proof of reserves, which by the way, their auditor just stopped doing it because they're basically a fraud. But anyway, when they provide these proof of Reserve statements, they're basically just saying yep, we looked, we see, you know Binance hired us to say hey, uh, how much cash do we have Oh a billion, How much Usdc do we have? Oh a billion. Don't look over here, don't mind all the other crap, Don't mind all the other liabilities that we have. We get old news at this point, right? Look at some of the other allegations here: Coronado Said the collateral underpinning Binance Peg Usdc was deficient by more than one billion Dollars Deficient by a billion dollars on three separate occasions in the Peg Wallet.

This is in the public chains you can find the deficiencies and the exchanges version of its busd stablecoin was under collateralized by more than 500 million dollars for the maturity of 2021. That's what we were still in the bull market today. The wallet holds approximately seven billion dollars, but that's after the exchange added approximately 3.2 billion. since mid-December when Binance experienced heavy deposit outflows following the decline of the FTX collapse.

so they had to basically to avoid essentially a bank run, which which they were suffering a lot of withdrawals, they had to kind of play the game make it seem like don't worry, we're great. We're fine. Everything's fine over here anyway. Jn24 Bloomberg Quoted an unnamed Binance spokesperson admitting that the exchange co-mingled funds and the underfunded certain B tokens in error.

Oh yeah, just during the craziest liquidity crisis we've ever dealt with at Binance, we happened to make a little Finance there. Uh, don't worry, everything's good now. So ridiculous. The transfer showing co-mingling began as far back as November of 2020 the earliest available data.

They of course launched their P token back in June of 2019. uh, the Forbes article goes through some wallets and kind of gives you a little bit of a wallet transfer history history here, including apparently, uh, Binance transferring money to Amber group Alameda and certain individuals during uh, frantic weeks here. Uh, now of course Forbes says look, these actions aren't necessarily illegal because these are not regulated exchanges. That's the whole point.

That's why the SEC is having a heart attack with crypto because the stuff that's happening is straight up Shady Now maybe they can fake it till they make it because so far they've been doing that. but boy oh boy. some crazy stuff going on personally. I think it'd be crazy to be yield farming on Exchange Uh, right now, a lot of people still do it.

A lot of people listen to me, say that and say thanks for the warning Kevin But you know what? I'm good and that's why it's fine. In fact, it could work out fine in a weird way as long as we continue on this disinflationary path which is pretty bumpy. But as long as we continue on this disinflationary path and we don't get Paul Volckard and we actually get a movement towards risk assets again Finance Might have been this close to BK but they just didn't get to that level. How maybe they played it perfect quickly and we went to basically close to BK and now we're on that recovery and now sort of that disinflationary.

Oh no Paul Volcker. Oh, let's get back into Risk Assets. Oh, Bitcoin's no longer at 15K. Let's everything.

Everything's getting better. it's gonna. It's gonna end up being a cocktail story for them. Where they're like, huh? But are there risks? Yes.

Are there things we have to pay attention to in the crypto? World Absolutely. This is ultimately where the bottom line always is not your keys, not your crypto. Personally I think it's very, very fascinating to see this sort of break down here. Uh, someone here Scott says I'm a crypto bull Kevin has made some great points.

Oh well, thank you for saying that. I'd be more concerned about coinbase halting trading every time prices moves to move too quickly. Yeah, well. I think that's just also a sign of a lack of liquidity, right? as they're essentially trying to act as a market maker.

Funny how uh, what do you have here? Funny how Regulators were worried about Asian exchanges, but it was an American Exchange stealing funds? Yeah, and sending it to the Democratic party you're not wrong, you're from The Hop Wrong. That is like really embarrassing. You're absolutely correct in what you're saying that and by no means am I saying Binance is definitely FTX I'm just saying there are some things that are very similar. FTX is just the one that hit bankruptcy right? Uh, that? that doesn't mean the other ones are angels, right? But yeah, you, you are right.

But but I mean look at it this way. Look at it this way. Uh, I I I think the way to look at it is is kind of like this. FTX Let's just say murdered.

You know 100 you know widgets. Let's say just to make this not gruesome, right? Okay, and then you might go over here and you go uh and say Finance Murdered 75 widgets Okay, obviously FTX is worse, but this was still pretty damn bad. You see what I'm saying like yes, Yes, one was an order of magnitude worse and then there's one that's also probably still pretty bad. but so far it hasn't really been like clearly caught yet.

Oh man, who knows, who knows. it's just it's I find it educational I don't have a horse in this race Yeah. I I don't have I don't think I have any crypto exposure I'm I mean I I don't want to say I don't have any because maybe there's like a tiny little bit like stuck somewhere. Uh, but as far as I'm aware, I'm I has no crypto exposure.

Uh yeah, so it doesn't matter to me if it's all fine or it all goes bust. It doesn't matter to me I Study it to learn to learn basically how companies can basically lie to you And and it shows you via the Silver Gate lies and also via the binance lies how they can do it or even the FTX size like. To me, it's all just one big educational wow that's how that's how you could talk through both sides of your mouth and screw people I find that very interesting. Stuck crypto stack bro.

hey man Unstuck me All right. Accidental crypto exposure. Yep, uh uh. good.

So let's say here next up. next up, next up, next job. Hmm oh I'm not gonna hit all oh my gosh. I got like three or four more stories but I gotta go to the airport soon I'm going to the snow.

All right, let's talk. Tesla We'll wrap this up today. All right. step.

Rose Oh yeah, let me chug my coffee really quick. otherwise I'm gonna start falling asleep. Cheers to coffee! Um, when do you predict you'll start buying real estate again? Q3 Q4 coupon code insert here Oh yeah I sell a course actually many courses and they're phenomenal I would say probably over 99 of the people who take the courser like damn I didn't realize I could have that sort of perspective. That's my goal is really like I'm not saying my perspective is perfect or 100 percent, but it's different.

Yeah, and and uh, it opens your eyes to looking at business, entrepreneurship, real estate, finance, and in in very different ways. especially even just the course member live streams. we do daily where we kind of do the fundamental work. It's tedious, but I Enjoy! I actually enjoy it.

Ah yeah, all right, that's good enough with coffee right now. The courses are giant. So much value that is true there. There's a lot in the Uh in them.

Thank you for that. I I Recommend people when they go through them. Take your time like pace yourself like two three lectures a day. so you start going like 10 in one day.

You don't want to burn out killing it with real estate. I Was actually going to talk about Miami today, but uh, probably I'm gonna have to push that to tomorrow. For the prices, your courses are huge value. Thank you for saying that.

Really appreciate that. All right, let's talk Tesla Ready to talk Tesla I Love the fact that you you all means this is so weird. Everybody's being so nice to me in the comments. Give me some hate I need some more hate I can't I can't take all this niceness.

look at this romness I Love the fact that you keep adding to it just adds more value. Thank you so much for doing it for free! Well I always do promise that uh if you buy once you get all the future value in the future. uh don't read Twitch Oh I see it all I see all your comments uh but that little. there was a large slew there of just nice people.

Uh, just bought the course. Highly recommend. Thank you for saying that. Uh, we're gonna do the Hustler live stream tomorrow.

Uh I I Kind of messed up with the plane scheduling today and I don't want to cut that short. so I posted a message in the Elite Hustlers group that we're going to do that tomorrow. Uh, but ah, you know what? Oh uh oh yeah yeah. I'm gonna be at a Tesla event.

uh this summer. let's talk about that. Uh, let's jump into Tesla and talking about that event. and then I I should probably, uh, put some pants and underwear on anyway.

okay commentary. Oh good. Lord All right, ready here we go. Oh my goodness, we gotta talk about Tesla and potentially the dealership model coming.

Oh my gosh, it's a disaster. We got to talk about retail that's buying Tesla We got to talk about the Mexico Fab I Don't know if I could borrow that term from chips Fabs fabrication facility probably not Factory Gigafactory. we call it that. We're gonna talk about the long term for Tesla and then this crazy new patent that Ford just filed.

Lots to talk about. Let's hop right into it. Okay, first things first: Mississippi Where there's literally like one Tesla store just to introduce this bill which is sitting the Mississippi legislature did just introduce this bill right here. It's sitting on the desk of the governor to sign and it basically creates these exemptions.

uh, suggesting when an automotive company can operate their own dealership networks and when they can't and the problem is if this gets signed Tesla might have to close its very only Tesla store in Mississippi and so it's on the Governor's desk. The legislature passed this bill on Thursday and it's aimed at restricting electric vehicle manufacturers from opening brick and mortar dealerships unless they comply with the same laws followed by traditional car makers. basically the dealership model. Now obviously buying direct is so fantastic because you don't have that middle person adding you know five to ten percent as a markup.

The dealership model is obviously built around service and this is not to bag on car sales. I Want to be very clear: if you are in car sales, you are learning so much in terms of of sales skills that even when dealerships go away in the future which I think they will, it'll be a while. it'll probably still be 20 30 years. Many of you who are in car sales right now are gonna be like Kevin I don't care I'll be retired by that and that's fine I just want to make sure you know like I'm I I don't disrespect sales people at heart.

that's that's what I started as and I actually think starting in like door-to-door sale or Car Sales is just getting thrown into the fire pit of actually knowing how to close the deal fast Like that's how you learn a lot in sales really fast. So aside from from apologizing to the sales people, let me now move on from saying I have nothing wrong I have no qualms with sales people. but the dealership model is Antiquated It's garbage. It's going to go away.

It will die. The dealership model will die now. That's not to be confused with the real estate dealership model. Basically where real estate agents help people buy sell.

I Don't think that's going away. That'll take another 100 years for that to go away. I expect uh, that'll probably that'll happen in the future, but not anytime soon. Cars are next.

But here you're actually seeing Mississippi introduce a law that will move companies backwards and basically uh, Force the closure of of Tesla's store in Mississippi Uh and and basically see, look at this: Tesla has one facility in Mississippi where customers can buy vehicles in person, but it's classified as a store and not a dealership, a distinction that allows the company to operate outside of state laws governing the franchise business. But this Bill signed into law if signed into law would not allow the store to stay open unless this enters into a franchise agreement. Now what Tesla could do to circumvent this is basically just create and spin off a money losing franchise and fund the money losing franchise. I'm sure there's a loophole around this.

Do I really think this. has any big implication on Tesla No, What maybe has more of a a potential impact on Tesla is the fact that apparently Tesla just actually recalled 3400 70 Vehicles because bolts securing the second row seat back frames may not have been securely tightened enough. Not a big deal. Stuff like that happens.

obviously. Take it in, get it fixed. you're unfortunately not going to be over able to over the air update that. But I Do think it's interesting that Mississippi is basically trying to go backwards.

Uh, and and obviously this is going to be the dealership unions and dealerships fighting for this. and in a place like Mississippi they might actually still be able to pull it off. Whatever. Maybe you might have to order your Tesla from the state next to it or you'll have a money losing franchise that Tesla's set up to make it happen.

Whatever. Uh, there are ways around all of this. But what's more interesting is actually that Tesla could potentially start making cars in Mexico next year in 2024. That'd be pretty damn fast.

That means they'd have to get this sucker built in the next 12 to 18 months now. I Personally think Tesla is playing very smart 4D chess out there. Oh, hold on. let me pause for a moment.

There's this guy called FTX Sam So Sam Bankman freed I Guess who says Kevin is the biggest Tesla Shield out there? Dude, there are so many Tesla Fanboys who have their heads so far up their ass that all they care about is bullish stuff on Tesla like I I try to be neutral Man like I'm a I am a big testable I am a big long-term Tesla investor Tesla has the biggest allocation in my ETF personal allocation like I am a Tesla But there are some people that have their self their heads so far up their ass that you say one bad thing about Tesla they hate you and I'm like man, whatever man. but no, I am not the biggest Tesla Shield out there. there are lots of Tesla Shields that have way more so on the scale of Tesla shells I think I'm on a low end of Tesla shells I'm in the poverty end of Tesla shills. If you rated it by by sort of like level of of chillness, try to be neutral.

But anyway, so what do we have here? Oh yeah. so I think Tesla's playing 4D chess here because when Tesla says oh, we're gonna start making the cars next year, what they're really doing is they're manipulating the politicians. Okay, think about this folks. think about this.

it's 4D chess Tesla is not saying we might start making cars in 2024. they're having the politicians say it now. What does the politician have to make sure of Tesla I said you would start making cars next year What's it gonna take Tesla's gonna go well sir. we're gonna need those permits to be expedited.

No problem, you need your permit here. It is because the politician made the commitment, not Tesla It's so brilliant. Look, there are some things that piss me off a lot about. Tesla Okay, I'll say it and I'll say it again.

Their presentation was an unorganized disaster. Their presentation skills are hugely bad. Okay, they're investor day was at least on investor day a middle finger. It was sort of like here's the Thousand piece Tesla puzzle thrown on the ground.

Nobody put it together now. The pieces were fantastic. The more and more we picked up, the pieces were like oh damn, this is actually pretty good. Damn yeah.

this puzzle actually looks pretty damn nice. But their presentation skills one out of ten their engineering skills 20 out of 10. Okay, they can fix that easily. A little bit of work on the presentation would make them hugely better at presenting.

Okay, and that's where like I get like a lot of hate from the Tesla Community because Kevin's just a Trader then good Lord good Lord Being in the middle sucks really. I Felt that when I ran for governor as well. you're in the middle, the left hates you, the right hates you. you're in the middle.

the Bears hate you. the bulls hate you, everybody hates you. But that's okay. I have coffee and alcohol to help me.

Hmm oh that. Patron's a little strong I mean that coffee's a little strong Anyway, Okay so so continuing on with this: New York Times article here: Uh New York Times Tesla Factory in Mexico Nuevo Leon will cost five billion dollars. We'll employ up to 7 000 people and could start churning out cars as early as next year. Look at the politician making that commitment 35 year old Governor Getting manipulated by Tesla Good job Tesla You guys are kicking ass again here over time Tesla Could double or triple that initial five billion dollar investment.

These opportunities I think happen every 100 years. Dude, this this Governor is so jazzed he's he's basically like he's wetting his pants over how excited he is that Tesla is coming and this is like the perfect 40 year chess because a lot of the Mexican politicians have been two as the New York Times here says. criticized for being too slow to embrace green energy and now guess what? what's happening over here? Look at this one over here. Uh, the auto body painting process is Central to the manufacturing process uses a lot of water.

Raises the question about how Tesla is actually going to get enough water for their Factory Okay, so the New York Times provides that. but listen to the counter right away. You ready for this? You ready for this? The politician immediately points out an array of new infrastructure projects including an aqueduct and a dam, saying he will ensure a steady supply of water. Okay, because that's why you know Elon Musk is just sitting there twiddling his thumbs right now going.

That's right. Step, roll you stuck. Oh, it's actually like, just totally brilliant. It's so brilliant.

Uh, you know you've got uh, you've got Volks you know New York Times Kind of gives a little shout out to Volkswagen Who wants to create the first mass-produced brand? Uh, uh. Bring back sort of The Scouts mass-produced brand of off-road vehicles in the EV segment. They're going to be building a facility apparently near Columbia South Carolina to produce trucks and off-road vehicles by 2026. Who cares? You've got Ford Chevys Volkswagens Beemers and other cars being manufactured in Mexico Whatever.

Here's interesting: under the inflation reduction Act passed by democrats last year, electric cars and batteries made in Mexico are eligible for federal incentives not available to Vehicles made in Asia or Europe Vehicles made in Mexico have long been shipped to the United States and Canada duty-free Tesla Like other manufacturers, will have its own lane at the border, allowing trucks to clear customs in minutes rather than hours. Well, yes, the politicians are like whatever you need and listen to this. The politician here has been told by Tom Zoo who leads Tesla's Factory operations that guy's probably gonna become the CEO one day that the company wanted to build the plant faster than their Chinese Plant their Shanghai a plant. Absolutely crazy.

Absolutely crazy. Really really incredible. Really really impressive. So uh, congratulations to your Tesla on playing 40 chess with the politicians.

Now we've got to talk. Uh, we got. Oh yeah, Oh my gosh, Yeah. Oh, look at this here.

Ready for this? Where is retail buying? Okay, so you've heard me say this probably 17 000 times before. Let me just give you a quick reiteration and then I want to uh uh shout out. Oh actually I'll shout this out first and then I want to tell you the new information. So anyway I do want to shout out the Tesla takeover.

You could I think it's go you could go to like Tesla takeover just Google it. But I think you could go to Teslateakeover.com uh they're doing an event in San Luis Obispo July 29th to 30th I am too lazy to drive there so I will be flying there like a total lazy bum. uh but I will be popping in uh I I'm invited uh to to get made fun of by the extreme testables and to speak to the uh Normie uh normal people like the people who are not