Welcome back to another meet! Kevin Report today is episode number 40 the big old 4-0 Welcome back, it is a March 3rd. Today we are getting some data that should give us a little bit of an indicator as to whether or not that January data was indeed an anomaly or are things really actually getting worse. We're going to be getting very important data: 7 A.M We're going to get the Ism Services numbers not only for employment, new orders, but also importantly, prices paid. Now previously, we don't have a survey for these, but previously we had prices paid that came in at 67.8 Well, Above 50.

So Expansionary New orders were also expansionary at 60.4 and employment was even at about 50.. And so what we're looking for is hey, what would happen if price is paid, stayed hot, and orders came down? That would be the big risk factor. so we want to pay attention to what's happening with ISM numbers coming out at 7 A.M This morning, it's about two and a half hours from the recording of this video. A lot to talk about today.

We've still got 10-year treasury yields sitting above 10 percent, which are above 10 Good Lord above four percent. excuse me? We were as high as 4.08 yesterday. However, this morning we have retraced somewhat back to about a 4.013 level. Let's see how the day evolves: I Was 10-year treasury yields probably the most important to pay attention to, specifically because of its implications for the real estate sector.

especially. Uh, when we see housing prices fall, we tend to see consumer spending collapse. and that's something we'll want to pay attention to very closely. But first, let's talk a little bit about Uh Tesla And then we'll talk about the Federal Reserve.

We'll talk about uh, how this recession compares to 2001, and uh, well, whatever other topics we can talk about first and foremost: I I Do want to remind you that oil is a very big indicator that we also want to be paying attention to. One of the things that we're seeing with oil is this slow and steady downtrend, and we hope that continues, especially as it potentially affects Energy prices in Europe Uh, and the last thing we want to see is sort of this continued runaway inflation in Europe which is what we're tentatively seeing that does create some risks for potentially exporting inflation to the United States as well. So far, we're not seeing that kind of pain in China that sort of inflationary impetus, so we'll see uh, so uh, those those are going to be the big things for today. Especially again that 7 A.M ISM data set.

That'll be very important. We'll take a look at that, but for now I Think we've got to do a little bit of clarity on what's going on with Tesla So let's catch up a little bit. Uh, on Tesla here briefly. All right.

First things we gotta talk at: Tesla One of the reasons we have to talk Tesla on this is because almost every institution that attended the Tesla event has released their letter on what their takeaways are for. Tesla That is going to be quite interesting To break through, we're going to look at Barclays Goldman Sachs and what some of the other institutions are saying in their reports to their clients about the Tesla Investor Event now: I Love looking at what the institutions are saying because it's not clouded or shrouded in that sort of retail. Bowl Thesis Generally, retail is extremely bullish on Tesla It's probably the stock that is held by most retail investors and it's one of the largest retail Health stocks outside of index funds like let's say, the S P 500. Which boy, there are potentially some big risks coming to the S P 500.

But with that said, I Really want to take a look at those institutional reports because the institutional mindset, in my opinion, is very, very important. Right now, we've got plenty of retail capital in Tesla but what is that institutional Capital actually going to flow back into Tesla Is it going to be predicated on the market or would investor? They have any kind of changing effect on what institutions believe for Tesla We'll determine that in this video now. I'd Like to also clarify because there are some folks who are making the argument that oh, Kevin's being too short-term minded in terms of being frustrated about the Tesla Investor Day event and I'd like to address that before we address what the institutions are saying first, it's very important to know that the vast majority of people who are affected by Tesla stock are affected on a short-term basis. That means employees, Employees being hired.

Employees just hired employees who are considering working for Tesla In either the manufacturing era in the area in the Uh Autonomous driving segment in the AI segment and the Chips Manufacturing or designing segment, anyone who wants to work for Tesla or works for a Tesla is immediately affected by a decline in the share price of Tesla stock. Therefore, it's really important for Tesla to do everything in their power to make sure short-term headwinds do not create too much of a downtrend for Tesla stock that then becomes self-fulfilling and shortable now. Elon Musk Obviously and clearly violated this himself in 2022 with his 24 billion dollars of stock sales that highly outpace the 15 billion dollars of retail net purchases. That's a problem and obviously led to Tesla's terrible drop to 100 bucks.

Now that may, for long-term investors, create a fantastic buy the Dip opportunity. But what it can do is create a demoralizing environment for employees and individual investors who are affected by the short term. So it is in my opinion, very important that Tesla do whatever they can to organize their presentations in such a way that they're not actually misleading people. Now, don't get me wrong, we know in the world of a YouTube YouTube's one of those places where the titles are often dramatic and then we've got to actually get through the content.

Well, in the case of Tesla, they did exactly what people dislike on YouTube In person they provided an investor day title, but what they really did was provide sort of a margin update and an update on how we're going to scale and at the same time reduce costs in the long term with a lack of detail on time frames. Those were a slap in the face to investors in the short term because without time frames without an organized presentation without exact information on hey, here's how all of this coordinates together. it's kind of on the World to sort of pick up the pieces and go okay, like that, sounds good. That sounds good.

Okay, how can we put this together? And how does this align with projections for time frames? Or when are these actually going to get incorporated into future factories and gigafactories? What? What Are the expectations? We should actually start pricing in right? Without that, you're not actually creating an investor. Day Presentation: you're doing more of a hey, By the way. here's how we're looking at innovating in the future, but we've really got little insights in terms of timing or time frames for investors. and that's why you think Elon Musk himself said this isn't for investors like shareholders.

this is actually for investors in earth, Right for that? sustainable Master Plan Three Now that's fantastic for a long-term investor. Don't get me wrong, I find myself to be one of the largest long-term focused investors on the platform. Now some people make fun of me for that and they say oh, really, you're the flip-flopper guy who sold stocks in 2022 and then rebought later. But the reality is anyone who looks back at that decision in questions that decision is living under a rock.

they are sticking their head in the sand like a dumb ostrich and is a complete idiot for suggesting that I should not have sold in early 2022 in January And that's exactly what I did and I never bought a single stock while suggesting that I would sell right that I always thought I was going to hold my stocks. It wasn't until I changed my opinion that I said uh, oh, I'm not buying anymore I've got a big change coming and within 12 hours of me selling my stocks, the entire world knew about that. That some people like to try to suggest that oh, somehow Kevin you know, didn't tell the world that, uh, that he was selling and he was telling people to buy while he was selling. That never happened.

It's a complete lie and that's what I think is so fantastic about YouTube because we can actually document all of that timing. And the beauty is that people who suggest I'm short-term focused Miss Exactly what I'm actually doing that is I'm so long-term focused I run an active ETF that has almost a 30 allocation to Tesla a substantial portion of my own personal portfolio is invested in Tesla I Don't care about the short-term fluctuations I'm saying Tesla is making a mistake and I'm frustrated on the people who are affected by the short term. Nobody could tell me that oh Kevin bought a Jet because he's short-term focused. My jet, my plane that I personally signed for is a down payment on what I believe will be a 10 to 50 billion dollar company in the future.

The jet is me risking my entire net worth and my Lively Hood today where I could retire and never work again today for an uncertain future 10 to 15 years from now. I Can't think of anybody more long-term focused than that. That's what long-term focus is. So in response to anybody who thinks oh, Kevin's a frustrated short-term minded retail investor, you're a complete because if you actually look at the actions that I take and you see what I describe I don't I I would be hard-pressed to find anybody more long-term focused than what I do.

And yeah, I changed my mind. but that's because I changed my mind for what is going to create the best results in the future. and I think that's exactly what Tesla's actually doing here. Small micro flip-flops and adjustments now actually lead to exponentially better results in the future Short-term minded individuals forget that small adjustments today expand to massive order of magnitude changes in the future.

and I think that's what institutions are slowly starting to pick up on. And that's why we've got to look at exactly what the institutions are saying and we'll go ahead and start with Morgan Stanley When it comes to Tesla, take a look at this. so Morgan Stanley essentially, in the short term maintains their price target of 220 dollars now. I Personally think that's very interesting because Morgan Stanley suggests we seriously question how the competition can keep up with Tesla now.

I Completely agree with that. but I think it's very fascinating that what institutions are doing so far and we've just started with institutions here is they're making it clear that okay, how is the competition going to keep up but they're not actually making any kind of changes to their pricing targets. Now that's likely because the outline that we got at Investor Day didn't really connect those dots yet for most investors and it's going to be a while before anybody I think can really model the changes that Tesla is talking about. Beyond What's already modeled most of Wall Street is already modeling this idea that okay, seven to ten million Vehicles by Twenty Thirty Tesla thinks 20 million Vehicles We discount that somewhere between 50 to 60 to 70 percent.

We get to Seven to uh, 10 million Vehicles by 2030. at a 50 cost reduction? Fantastic. We already get a model too, right? We know that whether the Model 2 is a newer, smaller vehicle for the Chinese market, or whether it's just a newly created Model 3 branded as a Model 2 that's made with essentially fifty percent, uh, reduced cost. But so, in other words, I Do think it's very, very difficult because of the lack of sort of coordinated vision from Tesla's presentation for folks to realize that the small micro changes that are being made the small adjustments.

So for example, if we're on this trajectory for Tesla or better yet, even make it sort of like if that's the trajectory for Tesla right? I Think it's very difficult for Wall Street to realize. Oh, okay, Tesla just did that in terms of an adjustment, right? That was really what investor day was was sort of. That little adjustment like that, by the way, is how we're revising going forward, right? And so of course, in the short term, the Market's like, okay, that's very difficult for us to understand. But the reality is when you look in the long term, what happens is if you stay on the trajectory, this might be your growth.

If you continue with the micro adjustments, your growth might be like this. and then this is actually where the bulk of the value is created. In the long term, it's when those small micro adjustments actually compound to being something extremely meaningful. It's in in my opinion.

I See this very personally in my life. it's like starting my real estate startup househag, starting and actively a managed ETF Uh, you know, buying a jet that enables me to do social media manage an ETF conduct a deep high level uh and deep dive research. So both high level and deep dive research and start what could be in my opinion, knock on wood? no guarantees. a 10 to 50 billion dollar company in the future, right? Housing Like those are the little micro adjustments that are happening right now.

So I actually resonate a lot with Tesla And and the the changes that they're making for the long term. And so in case it's not abundantly clear, what we heard was fantastic from a long-term point of view, in the short term the inflections seem so minor and because they were uncoordinated and because the these long-term benefits were not properly explained I think it was a slap in the face to investors and employees and potentially new employees. In the short term, the vision of Tesla could have easily been coordinated without actually providing exact details. Nobody's saying hey, you need to guarantee Yes, Oh, the model 2 was coming out, you know January 1st 2025.

nobody's suggesting that that is what Tesla needed to do, but coordinating the vision is what was missing from Investor day. And that's why Investor Day really, in my opinion, was essentially clickbait in the long term. Fantastic. We could see the adjustments, but for investors in the short term.

oopsies. But anyway, let's keep going here with what the institution said: so Morgan Stanley suggests that Master Plan 3 entails immense levels of vertical integration. and this vertical integration will enable Tesla to iterate far faster and with less waste than other auto manufacturers. this is important.

Minimizing that waste is critical even to the point of Uh and institutions are picking up on this as well. Moving from a 12 to 48 volt architecture, Burns less or I should say ways less energy right? because it can operate more efficiently with potentially smaller cabling, You potentially have less heat that ex that escapes from the internal architecture of the vehicle, and these benefits compound over time. They might seem minor in the short term, but they compound over time. That is actually an idea that Lucid has been integrating into their vehicle for a very, very long time.

The idea that we should operate these vehicles at higher voltage voltages, so that way we could reduce amperages basic electrical uh law. Anyway, we believe customers or rather, consumers will one day look back at electric vehicles from 2023. The way we look back at cell phones from the 1980s. Remember Gordon Gekko's phone when he was on the beach out East in the movie Wall Street Tesla wants to be the largest manufacturer in the world by some margin.

With that ambition, achieving cost leadership is deterministic. In other words, without achieving cost, uh, efficiency, you end up screwed. Well, that's obvious, and that's exactly what Tesla's doing for the long term. Again, they didn't pull that picture together for us, but that's okay.

that's where I'm trying to also help pull the picture together. and I Think that's what people and media do. That's why I Actually think it's very important that we have the social media we have today, not mainstream media. I Think we're all frustrated with most of mainstream media.

but I Think think that's why we come to social media is to get the perspective that maybe isn't properly laid out by our government. Well, almost certainly not properly laid out. or in this case, Tesla We would expect to see most if not all of today's Legacy Auto company executive teams study the materials presented today and tour Giga Austin as they have toured Tesla Fremont facilities in the past Innovations brought to Market by Tesla become the industry standard and are ultimately used by all automakers, not unlike how Henry Ford was moving the assembly line. Now this is really interesting because you really have Morgan Stanley again maintaining their price Target and keeping their view of Tesla in line.

but at the same time they're saying oh my gosh, nobody is going to be able to compete with Tesla So this is why we're making this video right to coordinate and sort of consolidate. what is Wall Street Taking away from this, it's also worth noting by the way that shipments from Giga Shanghai climbed to 74 402. That is 74 402 Vehicles were delivered from Shanghai last month. That is up 13 from the prior month.

It's down off some of the very high numbers we saw at the end of Q4 last year. Uh, but uh, but but still. finally returning to a larger Trend as that main export facility for Teslas suppliers on watch. I Actually think this is one of the reasons you saw uh MP materials drop about 13 Yesterday was this: talk about removing rare earth materials from uh from Tesla's engines was an immediate slap in the face to MP materials.

And this is where it's It's in my opinion, quite ridiculous for people to say that the short-term stock movements or or short-term uh occurrences uh, don't matter to stocks, they absolutely do. I Mean, look at this. You know what Tesla just did to MP materials. It's It's not just that the stock fell eleven, ten percent, ten eleven percent.

It's not just that you know what Tesla just did to MP material. They sent a massive red flag to anyone working at MP material solely focused on Rare Earth minerals that your days may be limited. Doubt has just been cast on the jobs of anyone working on rare Earths in uh, magnet motors which are basically electric motors. Right electromagnet, right? Electro Electric electricity and magnetism are essentially the same Force It's kind of cool actually.

if you've ever broken a taken apart uh, a a motor, you'd know that uh, it's It's pretty fascinating how how similar they are. Uh, I mean they're essentially the same Force so it's awesome I Mean that's how generators work after all, right? Anywho, so uh, going back to Morgan Stanley over here Morgan Stanley says Tesla's on a mission to further reduce part count, mass, weight, and complexity while bringing more components in-house smaller and less complex wire harnesses, fewer silicon carbide chips, and the elimination of rare Earths in permanent magnet motors where a few examples provided during investor day. On the raw material side of the question, we still haven't seen too terribly much detail in terms of what Tesla exactly wants to do here. However, what we did see is 20 different Executives across all operational disciplines now.

Morgan Stanley says no teleprompters. In my opinion, that's actually incorrect that there were sort of preview screens in front of the presenters. It was very obvious that at least one of the engineers was straight up reading from the computer screen in front of front of them and look, that's fine, but let me just from sort of a media point of view say you could take all of the information from these executives, but you need someone else there to consolidate or to simplify what they're saying. For example, this is how you could make the presentation so much easier.

You have one person talking about, let's say, full self-driving right and they go into the weeds of full self-driving This this this and then you have somebody else. It could even be Musk himself. But anyone somebody with a media mindset who comes out and says, now, those are the details Here is the impact of what that means What that means is we believe we are five years at least five years ahead of the competition. We believe that because it's taken X number of hours to train our neural Nets An X number of miles driven, this is where the competition is.

This is where we are now. We also think we're X percent closer to achieving full self-driving for all vehicles without a driver even present to where. within the next X number of years we think we can release a vehicle with no steering wheel now. no guarantees yet, but we are.

You know, 95 of the way there or whatever, right? I'm making up some of the numbers or leaving them as variables because that's for Tesla to do. but what they need is a translator basically and that's either going to be Tesla or it's going to be potentially social media, right? But it's more difficult for it to be social media because we don't have all of the extra answers to create the impacts from that information. It's sort of like here's the platter of information overload and nobody's really tying it together in terms of okay, how does this actually Stack Up Now How How close are we now to FSD right? We don't know because we didn't have somebody consolidate that information. That's my frustration with Tesla Don't get me wrong, the information is fantastic.

What happened is fantastic, but by skimping out on somebody who can consolidate the message much the way that Apple does at an Apple presentation, will you end up losing? And you hurt people and investors in the short term? That's why I think it's hilarious when people say oh, Kevin's just a short-term mind investor I I don't even need to continue to defend that. uh, it's it's so ludicrous. Nobody risks their entire net worth for a startup if they're not a long-term minded individual. Nobody throws everything uh, in their reputation onto that startup or an actively managed ETF or or you know, a publicly flip-flops and gets the world to hate them even though they're doing what ultimately was the right thing.

Nobody does that if they have a short-term minded Outlook right? If I had a short-term minded Outlook I'd care more about subscribers and pleasing everybody. When the reality is what I do is I provide my real opinion whether that's on politics or stocks. I'm gonna keep doing that anyway. Uh, let's see here.

the non Avail of the model 2. I mean I I Didn't expect a model 2 to get presented either. Neither they did Barclays neither did Morgan Stanley There were a lot of people who did, uh, there was the cannibalization argument that Barclays talked about that they were not going to do this because they could potentially cannibalize sales in the future. That's fine.

Uh, this this is not that big of a deal. It would have been nice though to have sort of a wrap of okay. got it. So Gen 3 50 less cost? How about like at least some kind of guide like are we looking at end of the decade? the beginning of the 2030s? Are we looking at, you know, 2027? Like how about I mean this could have in my opinion been as simple as this.

You could have one single slideshow. Uh, a little. And and this is. this is going to be my estimate by the way, right? So it's this is going to be my my speculation here.

but I think you could have had uh one slide that would have said something like this. Here's our roadmap. We think, uh, a semi-truck Uh, full scale by 2025 Cyber truck? Uh, full scale? Uh, let's put that actually right here and we'll call this by let's say 2024. Uh Cybertron First delivery 2023 And then what? You could say something like this is Mexico Giga 2024.

Uh, complete right And then you go over here and you say Mexico Giga uh would be. let's say uh, Ramping 2025 Mexico Giga uh potentially releases First you know Next Gen Vehicle Q4 2025 Mexico Giga Ramps Next Gen Vehicle 2026. Uh, you know, uh, First First Optimus Optimus Robots on a Floor By let's say 2027 Right like this, this kind of road map is something that would not have been very difficult for Tesla to give in my opinion. Unfortunately, that wasn't given and again, it doesn't have to be perfect like we we could.

We could say look, we can't guarantee this result, but at least some sort of vision of how does this all stack together? How does the Mexico Gigafactory fit in to the plan? You know we heard it was announced, but we don't know how it fits into the plan. Now we think we know we think that batteries are going to manufacture get manufactured at Giga Texas and then potentially go to Vehicles assembled in the Mexico gigafactory at a lower cost. maybe with Optimus robots and at the same time cheaper Mexican labor. And when you combine that, you get the recipe for potentially a model 2 with the parallel processing that we learned about rather than serial processing.

That's by the way is a very important word. So if you're a Tesla investor, you really have to know this. So see, a parallel processing is basically taking the car and moving it from Station to Station to Station right? That's what cars do Now the Uh oh sorry this is this is a series in series processing. My mistake that's in serious processing in parallel processing is you're taking different components of the vehicle.

uh, and your manufacturing on the you're essentially putting these together at the same time. So if this direction here represents time then rather than the product moving through time, the product at the same time is manufactured. You know in in just separate parts. So the parts, right? Essentially, the idea here is that now you can have robots work on different parts of the vehicle at the same time.

You assemble it like Legos and you cut the time down substantially that's required for manufacturing these right now. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like that. Tesla Optimus Robot is particularly close, especially since what individuals have posted online is a close-up of the robot hand here. and we do see that the Optimus you know, grabs something here.

But what's quite odd is when you look at this closely, it actually looks like this, uh, this hose here. uh, it's a it's a hose sleeve for what looks like maybe you know I don't know. 14 16 gauge wiring. You can see that gauged wiring right here.

It's very small. I mean this is like sort of the typical wiring that you might see uh for for uh, you know, up to a 120 volt circuit or something like that. Uh, but could be even smaller. But anyway, it's covered by this hose right here.

Uh, and uh. it looks like this is some sort of uh, actuator here or or Servo so to speak. And uh, the idea here is that the Tesla Optimus can already unplug this and it's sort of a way of maybe unembarrassing the Optimus presentation. The last time we had sort of the Optimus event where you know it, it was still impressive to see.

Okay, Real World Vision is coming to robots. We know, like this is fantastic, but it's still. it wasn't the best presentation, right? And so this video is sort of an attempt to, uh, maybe fix that by showing us a robot that that appears to be able to walk and and position its hand where this rope is. Or this hose is.

the. The problem is, this hose begins to move well below well before the Optimus actually makes contact with the hose. Which actually implies that there's an individual off camera to the left over here who's actually pulling the hose out of the actuator for the robot. Uh, and this is really more click bait here from Tesla Ready for this watch very slowly.

see look at that that cable pulls out before. See, look at right here. right here. There's no contact made by the hands yet, right? The hands are not really.

I Mean we can't tell that this is actually being contacted yet. Yeah, look right right here. Okay, there we go. How How does this actually start pulling back? We don't know now some now.

Maybe maybe we're just getting a bad angle here, but why does it look as though somebody else is potentially pulling it? Maybe Not. Maybe Maybe that fingertip is a lot thicker than we think it is. Or there's a larger piece of metal at sort of the inside of the hand here inside of the finger that is actually lifting this. But there's some rumor that this is actually a person who's pulled this plug out because the plug actually seems to pull out well before the hand does anything.

Look at that Now on this side. So I've been at I've had your attention here now I Want your attention to go to this plug over here. Pay attention to the plug. Watch the plug come out before because I I see your comments some of you saying oh, it lifts it up.

Okay, yeah, maybe maybe the metal stake right here. Uh, or or maybe it's possible Right But now I want you to tell me if this plug coming out is possible. So pay attention up to this plug. Okay, ready for this.

Watch the plug come out before the hand moves to the left and plug plugs coming right here. Plug comes out right here. Is it possible that the plug comes out because the finger puts so much pressure on the hose that the plug starts coming out? Yes, it's possible, but it looks like the plug is just floating out of there before the hand actually really pulls right. And the other thing now part three is watch this motion where the hose gets joint almost before the hand pulls back.

Okay, look at this in this Frame that you're about to see. Yoink, it's It's almost as if it's happening before the hand is actually appropriately moving back. Now, we're not sure. Maybe it is possible.

It is possible that there's a lot of tension on this piece right here. and if there's a lot of tension on this piece. Uh, and on the hose. Maybe it comes flinging out when there's enough pressure put on this by the fingers to pull it out of the socket.

Maybe maybe. But then again. then again, we do know that there has been a reputation of Tesla to kind of show things that aren't really working yet just for the excitement. Factor Now in the future it will work so it's fine.

It's not a big deal, but again, what would have been nice would have been a little bit more Vision around the idea of hey, look, you know this is where we've gotten to. Now with the Optimus we think the Optimus is going to be on the floor of a factory doing stuff like this. or at least in Bay data as soon as 2024 right? Like, you don't need to give us guarantees, you don't have to give us absolute exacts, but put the puzzle together. For people, that's what's missing.

And that's because Tesla's not investing in a media person Or a media. Department Really here, right? It's sort of just like here. We'll put it all on the plate and we'll sort of let social media or the mainstream media run rampant. Anyway, let's keep going here with some of the investor information.

So we did learn that the uh, the powertrain might go down to about a thousand dollar cost per vehicle electric architecture. Uh, this is where they talk about a 16x reduction in lost power by moving potentially from a 12 volt architecture to 48 volt architecture. It's important to know that when they say here reducing current uh, Factor by 4X that does not actually mean really anything. The only thing that matters is the potential lack of waste because if you increase the voltage, you will increase the yeah.

Or if you increase the voltage, you will decrease the amperage. But the wattage is the same. The power used is the same. The only thing you save is potentially having a more efficient wiring system that releases less heat.

So potentially that's where you save the energy. But from a formulaic point of view, just because you increase the voltage does not make the system more efficient. It's just in potentially the fact that there's less heat. that's important.

Think about actually why Europe uses the 240 volt architecture. It's not like when you go plug in a microwave in Europe It's using more power than American uh uh. microwaves. It's using the same wattage.

A thousand watt microwave over there is the same as a thousand watt microwave over here. That's important to remember. The difference though is if you have more efficient wiring, you could potentially use thinner wires because they don't need to be as overheat rated. And that's how you could potentially make building and construction more efficient by having the entire property constructed out of a 240 volt wiring system.

It also means you have 240 volt plugs everywhere. So if you want to plug in a washing machine or an electric dryer or a stove, you don't have to run a different set of cabling for that like you do here in America Now it's not to be confused with people who take an American hair dryer that's designed for 120 a volt system and plug it into a 240 volt system with a converter in Europe Yeah, that thing's going to glow and look like it's using a whole lot more power. That's because it's drawing twice as much power as it's designed for. Okay, but again, the efficiency here is is really not in the formulaic change.

Uh, it's potentially in that the wiring would uh would would lead to a reduction in sort of wasted energy. Okay, that's fine again. Lucid's been doing that. Robot was able to provide a perform menial tasks as originally intended.

That's fine, We saw that and we just commented on this. I did like the estimate that there would be potentially more than one humanoid for every human at the factory. I did think that was actually fantastic and I really enjoyed that. Uh, that that sort of forecast.

So I'm going to go through just some some more of those the main parts of Wall Street Here, mega Pack can connect to any grid. Globally, it's the most energy dense Solution on the market at upwards of 300 megawatts per acre. Uh, megawatt hours. Mega pack is 2x more energy dense than a traditional power plant.

Fantastic Should Tesla be able to hit the cost targets outlayed today. When coupled with OP X Discipline, we find it hard to see a way in which Legacy automakers can compete with Tesla in terms of EV profitability. That right here is a fantastic line. Morgan Stanley is saying: we find it hard to find a way for it for legacies to compete with Tesla We already know that Ford is not expected to be profitable until 2026 and they're already miserably failing.

GM is probably also not profitable. Uh, and we're not even talking about profitable. we're talking about wildly unprofitable, right? It's kind of like Rivian When we looked at the Rivian numbers, they are spending on a net basis three hundred thousand dollars to make an 82 000 car as of their Q4 earnings on a gross basis, they are spending two hundred thousand dollars per vehicle to make an eighty two thousand dollar car. It's incredible.

Okay, but anyway. Uh, so they are maintaining their price target of 220 for 2023 pretty low. No, no changes here on price Target from Morgan Stanley Uh, we've got Bank of America suggesting that the presentation was a little light on details. They're also maintaining their 25, uh, 225 Target Uh, It's worth noting that again, when they talk about being light on details, they're really talking about uh, combining the vision where like the dates that I talked about I think are actually realistic the dates that I gave, but Tesla should be the one putting that Vision out.

So that way we know what are they working towards I can guess all day long, but what are they working towards? It's kind of like when Elon Musk Poo-pooed the idea of the copy and paste. That's fine, but that's the first time we've seen him poo poo that idea. Okay, fine. don't copy and paste make every gigafactory different.

Fine Then Maybe that aligns with the idea that maybe the Mexico gigafactory is for the model too. Maybe there's another gigafactory that's for the Optimus robot, right? and that the gigafactories are just basically tuned to different purposes. Maybe that's why Elon Musk seem to kind of shake his head at that idea. That's fine, but again, immediate person can combine all those details.

That's why it's middle finger for short term purposes. long term I mean I I don't think I don't I I Would venture to say there's nobody more bullish uh on on YouTube at least uh uh than me. So uh Sandy Monroe uh now what's interesting is he's extremely bullish. but at least when I had my last interview with him and I'm going to talk to him this April about that uh likely when we meet together is he was was an argue he was he was Pro not investing in uh Tesla stock uh during the time of my interview which maybe ended up being a good thing I Don't think that anyone could have predicted that Elon Musk was going to dump as much as he did for Twitter but uh, but it'll be interesting to sort of get his updated perspective on that.

So uh, um Sandy Monroe said something very interesting though. he says uh uh he says and this is why I want to ask him he says he's putting his money, not putting his money He says I'm putting my money on uh Tesla is model 2 the 25 000 review vehicle basically being Like the Model T and the beetle. Not an expensive luxury car, but a mass-produced style of car that everybody can afford. That was the idea of the Model T that was the idea of the Volkswagen Beetle that everybody could afford it and and Sandy thinks that's uh, that's likely to be essentially the model too.

And we're not clear if that'll be a smaller vehicle. but anyway. Uh, the Bank of America maintaining their 225. let's jump into Barclays with Barclays Uh, let's go to Goldman Sachs first.

So here's Goldman Sachs. The bottom line is, we believe the event the event should increase investor confidence in Tesla's ability to reduce costs by 50 with its next-gen platform. However, we believe many investors were hoping for more specifics on when a third gen vehicle could begin shipping, and therefore the lack of clarity beyond the comment that they're working as fast as they can could be viewed as a disappointment to some. I Agree, that's exactly the problem.

Again, The content. Fantastic. The summary: bad. Now, unfortunately, their 12-month price Target here is 200, so they actually see more near-term downside.

now. I think that's kind of remarkable. Uh, because they actually think and this blows my mind. They actually think that Tesla is going to grow EPS negatively in 2024 3.

this year they think Tesla's EPS will be negative in 2023.. Okay, all right, whatever. Uh, and then and then go back to maybe 50 to 20 growth in the next few years. Uh, so you know somebody here nightclub says I don't think they want to put out a date because it's never met and it hurts investors I disagree with that highly.

I Actually think it's very important to put out a date because it Actually creates the pressure to achieve close to that date. right? If you come out and say, let me put it this way: okay, think about it this way. everybody does this. Everybody on a human level can do this.

Oh, I'm gonna start working out and I'm gonna get buff or whatever or I'm gonna exercise more and we tell ourselves that yet, when do we actually do it? We generally don't right? Most of us don't and it's just the way it is. where we go once in a while. Oh, we're going to eat better, right? Well, if we actually set a goal, I will have lost X weight by X date. Well, now you measure your performance towards that date and even if you miss it, you're more likely to have performed substantially better leading up to that date than if you didn't actually set a goal date.

Setting a goal date and communicating a goal date now actually unifies Tesla Staff at all right? Might be ambitious, but let's try to make it happen when you just do. Ah, we're doing our best. You take the pressure off. You should never take the pressure off.

It's like my goals with House Hack. My goal with House Hack is to and again no Guarantees is to IPO an extremely profitable company that could be in my opinion, worth billions of dollars in the future before the end of the decade before. I I Don't want to get into the 2030s without it having IPO Now I Don't know what's going to happen? Who knows. Maybe there'll be a market crash in 2029 and it's not going to make sense I Have no idea what's going to happen, right? But I'm setting goals and so I think it's important to set goals and then hold yourself accountable to those.

If you miss, that's okay, then just provide a new update. What changed? How are we doing in an adjusted time frame? I Think setting time frames is actually extremely important and this this idea that oh, well, you know they always miss their time frame. so let's just stop doing time frames is a ludicrous example. Uh, or a ludicrous suggestion for for goal setting.

I Mean that basically says don't set goals because you miss all your goals anyway. You know, don't don't try to strive and Achieve something because you're gonna fail Anyway, that's a defeatist point of view. That's the worst way to look at it. Time frames are very, very important.

Uh, goal setting. Very, very very very very important. You know. send McGuire here says Tesla and Time Flame frames and and says uh, clown, clown, clown, that's fine you.

you can argue all you want that Tesla clowns with its time frames. But setting time frames and goals is extremely important anyway. Goldman Sachs gives a little bit of a summary of some of the things that we saw. You know where we're going to see reductions in fossil fuel? We use the big one getting the grid to Renewables the next big one EVS I Actually thought it was very interesting that moving planes and boats 2 EV would actually only lead to about a five percent reduction in fossil fuels.

Showing you that most of the reduction of fossil fuels comes from moving the grid to Renewables and then moving EVS to Renewables I Thought that was really interesting because like I would love to use less jet fuel like. First of all, it's expensive. Uh and and you know from uh, from like uh, from from the point of view of efficiency I mean it's fast, but it burns a lot of fuel. You know how much fuel a Boeing 747 Burns So when when people ask hey, how many miles to the gallon does a Boeing 747 get, you actually have to flip it around.

It's actually about I believe when I last look I have to get fact check it's it's two to five. but I'm gonna go with five because I think that's what it is. It's about five gallons per mile for a Boeing 747 to fly around. That's crazy set.

Five gallons per mile for a Boeing 747 to fly around, right? Very very so so. I Initially thought like wow Okay, I thought like frayed and and planes would would actually be a great place for efficiency, but probably because there are so many more cars and so many more grids. That's actually not uh, the way to look at it now. fortunately I See what? I I'm not trying to like Pat myself on the back, but I purposefully wanted to get a smaller plane to be as efficient as possible.

I Could have spent more money and had a plane that's larger, sit more people. but I don't need more people in it. Uh, my fuel burn on my plane is about 165 gallons uh per hour and that works out to roughly about 3.5 miles per gallon. Uh, so not great.

It's pretty low, but then again, you're going 565 miles per hour roughly at Max Speed There's some takeoff considerations there and it changes some of the averages a little bit. uh, but but a larger plane that we were also considering last year especially would have gotten about one mile per gallon. Uh yeah, what would have gotten about one mile per gallon? So we're like, yeah, let's try to be. We get it.

Let's try to be as efficient as possible. But anyway. I just mentioned that because I think it's interesting I Don't think people generally think about like how many miles per gallon planes actually get uh and uh and then at the same time I Thought it was very interesting how uh, moving uh, planes and boats to sustainability. Full sustainability would only lead to a five percent reduction.

Fossil fuels? That's interesting. I Get it like on a per vehicle basis. it's not as great. but from from Uh from an overall Uh energy sustainability standard, it's probably the last place to get innovated.

Uh, because it has the least impact I Thought that was interesting. Anyway, here we talk about balancing the serial line approach versus the parallel approach. How that could potentially lead to 40 44 better operator density and 30 better space time efficiency. Uh, some other efficiencies here.

We didn't really get any kind of autonomy. Targets talked a little bit about charging and wanting to build more. Talk about software Mega Packs. Uh, we talked about implications.

Here we go: Goldman Sachs Bottom line is we believe this event should increase investor confidence and Tesla's ability to reduce costs by 50 with its NextGen platform. Given the breadth and depth of Tesla's team and how it's vertically integrated model allows it to optimize on both cost and performance. However, we believe many investors were hoping for more specifics on when a third generation vehicle could be shipping and therefore the lack of clarity beyond the comment that they're working as fast as they could uh be in the next couple of years is likely to be viewed as a disappointment by some. We believe a couple of years would imply the 2025 time frame, and we continue to believe later in 2025 would be more probable probable.

I I Actually agree with about a 2026 for a model 2 time frame I Think that's very interesting. So let's see somebody here writes: MPGs for older people. Okay, uh, looking back, can you explain, while by selling in January 22 was the right thing when you had to pay taxes and gains since buying back uh has a tab, blah blah blah. Okay, so uh.

first of all, the absolutely the best decision I could have made because I allocated my portfolio from a large exposure to money losing companies to highly pricing power Centric Companies uh, that in my opinion have such high free cash flow that even in a recession, we are going to be able to avoid real valuation compression. Now things will be volatile, but I would have lost way more money had I not sold in January of 2022 and told everybody about that transparently I mean twice as much it would have been. It would have been extremely painful. Now again, I'm not saying it was perfect, but I did my best to get away from money losing companies and that was the absolutely the right decision.

Now when you talk about taxes and I made this clear for me, my tax situation is different than other people. I Had the opportunity to buy a plane for 13 million dollars which eradicated all of my capital gains from selling real estate, income and stocks. Thank you Tax system and specifically Donald Trump Who in 2017 through the Tax Cut and Jobs Act expanded the accelerated depreciation to 100 for planes? Yeah, So anyway, okay, uh, then we've got one more over here. So we've got Barclays It's a fair question.

Uh uh. let's see here. Uh, 2022 saved you from losing so much money on a small company. Yeah, small companies got wrecked I Mean there's some companies that went down, you know, 90 95 and these are companies that I warned hey like you don't want to hold these suckers in a recession Now some people get mad at me.

they're like you. You said that was a good stock I'm like, yeah, unless we go into a recessionary environment. that was like was pretty clear about that. but that's okay.

People want to have somebody to blame and that's fine. So Tesla Investor Day Master Plan 3 leveraging Tesla DNA to achieve Mass scale. So I I don't want to read every part of the Barclays one here. so we're just going to go to some of the highlights.

Tesla's looking at a balance of parallel and serial production. We talked about that. Uh, I Thought this was interesting. They talk about demonstrating bench strength by by showing all of these these 13 additional people who generally don't show up on uh, on earnings calls.

So I Thought that was very interesting and we expect the Mexico plant to use battery cells produced in Austin to make sure they achieve a full tax credits. Uh from the Inflation Reduction act. Now this was also interesting. They talk about potential upside on deliveries.

They talk about the idea that Tesla actually produced 277 000 approximately units through Q1 2023 so far, and that's about two-thirds of their 20 their Q1 estimate of 423 vehicles. and that suggests a modest ahead of estimate scale, although we are kind of like two-thirds through the season so. but anyway, they say that's because of the production impacts from the Chinese New Year and the Slowdown of January could actually mean they'll end up beating production estimates for Q1. Good to know that's a little bullish on Q1 earnings right there.

uh, limited color provided on financials was disappointing for some optimistic tone about uh, about uh, raw materials yeah, and I think that's really a big big argument there is that Tesla's not terribly worried about uh, you know this uh, this the the future of availability of of lithium and otherwise thinks uh, they'll end up uh, they'll end up being just fine essentially on the Commodities factors. So I think that's quite fascinating. uh, and quite useful. So I think that gives us sort of a a deep dive clarification and summary from not only institutions, but also for me on Tesla I could not be more bullish until I've shown my price targets for Tesla plenty of times.

I'm looking at well over 500 in that 500 to 600 range. you could say 525 to keep it simple for 2025. I think it's a phenomenal investment. Uh, going forward.

Obviously that's not personalized. Financial Advice: I am a licensed financial advisor I Run an actively managed ETF I you know I I have a real estate start if I do a lot of crazy things. uh, that you know look crazy now. but I think we're gonna be awesome in the long term.

But um, yeah, I mean I'm a big fan. So I I want to make that as clear as possible? So anyhow, let's move on. So someone here is asking: how influential do you think the elections will be on markets in the fourth quarter of 2024? um I mean I I Never really think elections are terribly much of a concern and I I think they usually are made out to be much more of a big deal than they tend to be for the stock market. It's a broader economic direction that seems to matter a lot more.

uh, macro directions, right? So I mean look for example, at uh, oil or inflation or or what's happening with with bonds. I think these things are much more important than than actually elections. Uh, it's It seems like Macro pushes through no matter what happens with elections regularly. So generally I don't pay too much attention I mean I pay a lot of attention to politics.

don't get me wrong, and that's actually what we're going to talk about next. but I'm generally not too terribly concerned. like I'm not gonna not invest for fear of what happens at a future election. Don't really care about that.

Tesla Poker Face on raw materials. yeah, that could be that could be claims are the least efficient mode of transportation. uh, potentially is probably probably not untrue. Uh, it.

But then when you factor in time, uh, they become substantially more efficient. Then again, you got to make something float. right? All right? Okay, next. oh, this will be entertaining.

Oh yeah, this should be really entertaining. All right, let's talk about this next topic. We had quite a few topics to cover that. Tesla segment took a little bit longer than expected.

We gotta talk about Top G Andrew Tate is what's happening with Top G Seriously concerning or is Top G Getting ready to play the system because he realizes his case is weakening? uh-oh that's uh, not very popular thing to say. So I'm going to start out by saying this in preparation for my comments here on Andrew Tate I've actually watched a lot of Andrew Tate content and I'm gonna just remove for a moment any commentary on women. Uh, because I think that's actually very important to do. And now I'm going to just focus solely my opinion on what Andrew Tate does in terms of uh, motivation for entrepreneurs or business owners or people who want to create their own business, People who want to feel sort of a boost to feel energized to do something uh, you know, really meaningful in their lives.

From that point of view, I actually think the content that Andrew Tate provides is quite good. Uh, separated again from any commentary on women and I highly have a separation for that. Okay, very, very big separation. big gap, big gap.

So I want to separate that? Okay, but in terms of like, entrepreneurial motivation, Fantastic. I Have to say there are some very fantastic uh, uh, points and arguments. and and uh, I I think they're wonderful I Think they resonate now. Obviously we know that Andrew Tate right now just had his uh, jail stay extended another 30 days unfortunately.

uh, for uh, the Tate brothers who both had their uh, uh, you know, uh, jail sentence extended while they wait for charges to be filed now I Think that is probably the most frustrating part for Andrew Tate's attorneys and also Andrew Tate supporters because while he sits in jail, the world doesn't actually know what the charges are. We know that there are allegations potentially of money laundering. uh, potentially allegations of uh, rape or sex trafficking. Who knows.

Okay, the actual charges haven't been filed yet. However, a Romanian judge continues to sort of kick that can down the road in 30 day increments. Some people allege the reason for that is because Andrew Tate was a little too Brazen and suggesting oh, I pay off the police here. They'll never arrest me and this is sort of maybe a way to sort of use Andrew Dade who's obviously a popular social media personality as as sort of a a lesson like you think you can mess with the Romanian police We'll show you, we'll keep you locked up without charges and just continue to extend you on 30-day basis.

Well, unfortunately, now there's talk about Andrew Tate having yes, the C word cancer Take a look at this. Here's a tweet suggesting that there is a medical update of possible cancer from Andrew Tate Now other folks, some folks have suggested that this has already been confirmed by people close to Andrew Tate via random and miscellaneous Instagram posts saying things like yes, it is unfortunately true Andrew Tate has cancer and here's an individual who, uh, if we hover over here, says they are an investigative journalist PhD candidate. Okay, so so student, uh, blogger and teacher. Anyway, okay, so uh, they they say here that uh, the CAT scan report is extremely alarming Andrew Tate may have lung cancer urgent biopsy needed Oh, I'm sorry I'm covering that up a little bit.

Let me move myself to a different corner here so you could see this a little bit more easily. There we go. Go back to the bottom. right there we go.

Put Kevin back in the bottom, All right. CT report is extremely alarming Andrew Tate may have lung cancer. urgent biopsy is needed and a six-month delay could be fatal. There are reports he's lost 10 kilograms.

so what about 22 pounds of weight which is also a sign of cancer. Cancer could be incurable now says uh says the piece here. Now if we actually look at the piece that was released, this looks like it is a King's Hospital uh of London report, but it actually shows a Dubai address United Arab Emirates Kings College Hospital Dubai.com to whom it may concern and this is apparently from January but it's just now coming out Andrew Tade his date of birth Dear Sir Madam I'm writing you this letter in my capacity as Mr Tate's primary care physician. Okay, so this is not a specialist, right? This is a primary care.

This is your general doctor and that's not offense to Pcps. and that's not to be confused with the drug either. There's no offense to General care physician. It's important to know that.

Okay, so wait a minute. So so Andrew Tate who's a U.S and London citizen and has his operations in Romania has a primary care physician in Dubai I Personally would like to know how long Andrew Tate has had his PCP in Dubai It doesn't really make sense that your primary care physician would be in Dubai But but okay, we'll keep going here. I am a consultant in family medicine and medical doctor of King's College Hospital London in Dubai So I Want to be clear about that London Hospital in Dubai Okay, fine, keep going Andrew is currently being in and that's important by the way. I'm putting on a little bit of tinfoil hat here for a reason and that is not to sort of impute a bias.

I am wanting to provide you why certain people are saying something that they believe my goal is just to provide what I'm seeing in a sort of summarized way: Andrew is currently being investigated for a lesion in his upper right lung at King's College Hospital in Dubai Okay, so he's being investigated for a lesion by at his primary care physicians facility. Okay, in Dubai even though he's not in Dubai Okay, he has recently undergone a contrast enhanced CT scan the report of which I attach. Okay, so so maybe he did go to Dubai and have a CT scan. That's entirely possible.

Where there were some concerning features of the lesion that require urgent investigation and tissue diagnosis. Okay, uh. and and so in other words, this report was potentially uh, potentially occurred just days before his arrest. Andrew Tate Arrests.

Let's see when his arrest was I I Want to say that was just days before that? uh, that he was, uh, that he was arrested. Uh, no. Okay, December 29th was actually the date of the arrest. So about two weeks before his case was discussed by our multi-disciplinary team meeting, and he has been scheduled to have a number of further urgent investigations and procedures, including essentially more scans and and tissue sampling biopsies.

Uh, although it does appear that those were delayed despite being urgent between December 12th and 29th when when he was arrested. Now, it's possible that they delayed that because uh, you know, the holidays, right? But if it was super, it was this urgent I Feel like if something was that urgent, why why would we not want to conduct a surgery within within the week, right? And this letter is written on January 2nd. So three weeks later? Okay, after the arrest? All right, his case was discussed uh, further scans. It is my professional medical recommendation that Andrew is urgently repatriated to the UAE to undergo these medical investigations without delay.

Time is of the essence, and any further delay in the above investigations may have a serious negative implication for Andrew's physical health. Please do not hesitate to contact me if you require further assistance. now. I Think it's very interesting that rather than suggesting hey, let's send Andrew Tate to medical facilities in Germany fantastic cancer facilities or the United States fantastic cancer facilities No, let's send him to Dubai which is also where CZ from Binance resides because there are no extradition treaties.

That's where people go to live to get away from taxes and the law. It's also interesting that this document from January 2nd wasn't released until two months later on March 2nd. And why that's interesting is because potentially it gave Andrew Tate enough time. Let's go over here to I'm trying to get to my liked tweets uh, profile area.

It gave Andrew Tate enough time to potentially lose weight to align with the media release because now you have somebody who who has has lost potentially 20 kilos to suggest see they must be real. He's lost weight. It must be true. He has cancer because he's losing weight, right? Because there's no other reason somebody could lose weight other than cancer now.

I'm purposely putting that Jade out there because what are people saying? This is not my opinion, it's just what people are saying. and I like these just to sort of provide sort of an outline here. What people are saying is that Andrew Tate all of a sudden looks really unhealthy and unwell. Therefore, uh.

and and since he was previously investigated for cancer, he must have cancer. That's essentially the conclusion that's being aligned and therefore the argument is being made. Hey, let's send them to Dubai where there happens to be no extradition treaty. So on one side you have people going.

Obviously he's being poisoned. The Romanian government, they're criminals. Andrew Tate is being is being destroyed by The Matrix Uh, we need to get Andrew Tate out of jail right away or at least tell us what he's being charged for In Fairness like kind of. I Think the world would like to see the evidence right On the other hand, you have some people saying oh, well, this is what happens when you run out of uh, steroids for a while.

Well, usually the effect of animal anabolic steroid withdrawal wears away after about two weeks. That's not me saying it. Uh, that's uh, that's sort of some basic research that you could do online. Uh, that.

uh, that will tell you exactly that. So generally the the effect of uh, anabolic steroid withdrawal if he was even using any, goes away after a couple weeks. So I don't know that this so much matters. Uh, but uh.

but anyway, these are the the sort of ideas that you're getting. Is that, oh, lost weight? Uh uh, you know, maybe he has cancer? Oh that. That's it. He needs to be extradited again.

On one side, you have people saying this is just a ploy to get out of detention and flee the country to basically an area that has no extradition for you. Other people say this is very concerning. He needs an urgent biopsy. Uh, his lymph loads are maybe clear on Radiology but biopsy may show something worse that could metastasize.

Uh, again, in my opinion. If it was so urgent, why wasn't it done between December 12th and December you know, 28th? Who knows. Anyway, Uh, this is very interesting. This is sort of the latest news on uh, the take case here.

although there's actually a little bit more. Let me go to Mario really quick. Mario gave a little bit more uh color as well. So over here Mario shows some CCT footage uh of uh, what looks like women leaving and returning to their home uh to Tate's house on their own.

Uh, basically what they're trying to show is it doesn't look like anybody's leaving under you know, duress or kind of stress or under under like the force of uh, uh, it's not like they're running away screaming, help me or whatever. I think this is sort of just a way of of trying to exemplify. see they weren't fearful. Otherwise, why would they come back? Okay, I mean that's an argument.

Uh, you know there are