Welcome back to another episode of the Meet! Kevin Rapport Today is episode number 36 to Monday February 27th. A lot to talk about today, including Elon Amasca apparently laying off at 200 more folks over at Twitter Now the rounds are being made that he's even laying off people who went to sleep and posted pictures of themselves sleeping in the Twitter offices, suggesting is anyone safe at Twitter Of course my take here is hey, look, if you got laid off by Elon Musk there's probably a reason, but then again, that sounds a little potentially empathetic towards Elon and that can sometimes be a little unpopular these days. This year so far has been the worst of four equities. Uh, well, I should say rather.

This last week so far has been the last for equities this year. So in other words, out of the about seven trading weeks that we've had, last week was the worst. Let's see how this week ends up for February. We've got some things to talk about, including what some of the Bears are saying, including calling us potentially Kamikaze uh, as well as potentially suggesting uh, well, yes, the worst is yet to come.

Uh, we'll go through some Uh, we'll also go through not only what the Bears are saying, but we'll look at a little bit on Catalyst what we've got going on this week. Uh, we'll look at where there's potentially a debt risk and how you might be able to position yourself as an investor. Look at what's going on with real estate, Rent a comedian who's getting canceled over comments. We'll look at some of those uh and uh.

well. We'll also touch on Apple which and we may as well touch on Apple right now. So Apple in the Wall Street Journal There was a nice piece talking about Apple and keep in mind I'm an Apple investor big fan of Apple I Found it interesting that polls are now showing that Gen Z's are increasingly adopting iPhones as quote unquote must have items. Apparently, the iPhones in, for example, South Korea are jumping to about 52 usage in 18 to 29 year olds compared to Uh 44 just a year prior.

When we look at Samsung, we actually see Samsung dropping from about 45 to 44 worldwide. iPhones In the eight hundred dollar plus range make up 76 of all phones sold in 2022. That's up 11 percentage points from 2018, where Apple represented just 65 percent of the world smartphone market. Over uh, eight Hundred Dollars, Samsung has shifted down to 17 from 27 massively taking a seat back there, and Apple really commanding right now of the premium Market globally 77 of what are deemed premium smartphones globally Kyle So you know it's one of those where as an investor obviously I like looking at companies that have pricing power and it always regularly.

makes me wonder just anecdotally how how do I feel about Apple. Uh, and one of the weird things about Apple is I also have an Android phone and one of the weird things about Apple is I think once you get suckered into the ecosystem, it's almost like a cult now. I'm a member of that cult. But I'll tell you uh, pretty much everybody at Uh at our office has Uh has an iPhone.

So when we group text we're blue textures right? There's one person who has Android and it's like as soon as they go into chat everyone turns into green textures. uh and then like links and photos and stuff don't show up as well. It's almost like Apple has engineered the most perfect way to kind of like manipulate people to to to feel peer pressure into joining the blue text group. It's almost like like I I like text message, text message racism.

It's like oh, you're you're green, We're blue, We're better is is like almost to what it feels like. It's really interesting how that that psychology has manifested uh over and over and over again at various different groups that I've been a part of. whether those are temporary groups, uh, or or uh, you know, vacation groups or whatever. So as soon as though you know or you go visit families, as soon as the one green texture comes in, everybody has to go down to the level of green.

You know, in a weird way, it's like this bizarre like allegory to kind of what's going on with race tensions in America right now. Uh, so so you know, maybe maybe it's time to start calling Apple racist I I Like obviously not, but uh, it's It's pretty incredible and clearly the numbers are showing that their pricing power is is whether it's thanks to psychology or features or whatever. For some reason, Apple continues to grow and get more and more market share. uh from investor or from from consumers I mean I Remember back to the day of the release of the first iPhone and then of course the app store because when you got the first iPhone you actually didn't have an App Store So back in the day, you would jailbreak your iPhone to get the uh, the products you want uh, or the apps you want and you jailbreak your phone.

if they weren't if they wouldn't let you transfer off of say ATT or whatever. A lot of that has mostly gone by the wayside today. Uh, and even though Apple's number softened it, you know, with year-over-year comparisons specifically in uh, in in Max and wearables. seeing softening, this company prints money.

I Mean, just look at some of their financials here. this is their latest 10K It's absolutely phenomenal. You go to their latest 10K What do you have? Net sales here? 316 billion dollars and pretty much for every dollar of a product that they sell, they're making about uh, a 25 cents of service. Revenue Imagine in the future when they continue growing this product base, if they can get services to Match products.

Holy smokes, the amount of money this company will make will blow blow our socks off. I Mean think about the margins that you have here. Right when you're looking at uh, their margins, you could see that uh. 22 bill is going to spending on Services You're looking at about a 28 cost structure for services.

That means you've got profit of about 72 percent. So think about that way every time you buy uh, like a 10 product on Apple uh for like the App Store Let's say it's a ten dollar app, they take 30 percent. That's three bucks. Their profit margin on that is about two dollars.

So every time you buy a ten dollar app, apples like cha-ching. Thanks for the two dollars. Kind of wild. every time you pay for, you know, a twenty dollar subscription service to whatever Apple product you want 20 bucks.

Whether that's iCloud or whatever it might be 20 bucks at a 30 cost structure means they're pocketing 14. I Mean this is pretty typical in terms of margins for software as a service business. But it's not just that, they you know a lot of software companies that sell Hardware just lose money on the hardware. Look at Square You know they sell money on their Hardware to get people into the ecosystem of Square and they try to sucker people in.

so they sell their Square products as a lost leader to get people in when they sell their products as a loss leader, What ends up happening? Well, hopefully people get attracted to staying in that ecosystem and paying those financial services fees like credit card swipe fees or whatever. uh, at uh, at a Square. And it's the same thing as basically Matterport. In in recent quarters, they're trying to sell you products so that ultimately they can get you into the ecosystem with Matterport.

Whether that's upgrading through, you know, using the the Matterport 3D rendering data or scanning data and using it into different software sweeps suites with it, which they're trying to sell to you, or it's uh, quite frankly, uh, just getting people to host their 3D uh scans on the Matterport.com website and basically then Matterport turns into someone who's who's just a hosting platform for you, right? Uh, so interesting. But I'll tell you even on products over here, Uh, Apple is. Let's see here. Apple's cost structure their margins.

They're taking about 36.4 in profit of every product they sell you. That's gross profit. So think about it. You want to know what the gross profit is when they sell you a thousand dollar? iPhone It's about 360 dollars.

That's really incredible. Really, really good. I Mean it's just. it's just phenomenal.

Uh, and then you might think, okay, well, how much are they actually bringing to the bottom line? Well, just based off the last quarter, you look at Total Nut Sales 394 of that they brought about 99 803 to the bottom line: 394 328 Uh, that puts you at about 25 coming to the bottom line. That's so incredible. So for example, if you uh, if you spend thousand bucks on an iPhone uh and then you're buying stuff for your apps or whatever all in, you spend a thousand bucks Apple's brand about 250 bucks. To that the bottom line.

that's some big old cash flow. You know you go buy the the Apple headphones or whatever for 600 bucks. 150 bucks of that, it's going straight to the bottom line. That's awesome.

So really incredible and and not surprising that sort of the cult of Apple is is expanding and the Wall Street Journal is really picking up on that it. I'll find it fascinating to see how potentially uh Android uh wants to ultimately uh, you know, compete with with this this basically mining away that Apple is doing. Now don't get me wrong, I Know there are a lot of of bay Ave Android fans and I think this, the phones are quite frankly relatively similar. Uh, you know I mean I I The reason I don't use my Android phone that much is because I've got all my iCloud stuff on all my other devices so my notes don't sync over there.

But then you know people who use Android are usually like oh, but Kevin you know I like the Android because I have my Google Drive in my Gmail on the phone and I'm like yeah I have that too. You know it's it's like I have iCloud built in and Gmail built in the iPhone but on my Google pixel I don't have iCloud I have Gmail and my Google Drive and all my my G Suite products but I'm like I also have G Suite on the apple and the iCloud so it it's really impressive what they've done and to some extent the the Microsoft cloud service. it just isn't at that same level. In anecdotally where the Apple cloud services and I think that's really where uh you know if you wanted to like sync with Bing or whatever as opposed uh or or use your your Bing storage it's almost like you're seeing a little bit more of a of a legacy industry approach.

a prefer uh the uh the Microsoft storage over uh Google drive or apple and again if you're using Google you could. You could basically be device agnostic. You don't have to use the Google Device to use the Google products whereas with Apple you have to use the Apple uh products to to use the the Apple Services the storage or Pages or or whatever. uh and and you know some of it is is preference but clearly with with how they're growing even in sort of this this environment uh I mean look that's the other thing I think we we forget is this is you know, Q4 of this year was widely expected to be way less euphoric than obviously Q4 of 2021, right? Yeah, what does Apple do? Apple Somehow, despite all the craziness, still managed to manages to increase product sales by 6.4 percent.

Now, of course. Yes, there was high inflation. some of the you know margins uh, got hit, but still on a nominal basis Services grew about 14.7 percent. They're still spending more money, at least on services, and even if inflation is roughly matched for products, it's incredible that it's not more negative on a real basis or inflation-adjusted basis than uh than it might otherwise be.

So really I mean the company is just phenomenal. Uh, I mean they're hitting it out of the park. Now if you look at sort of a forward valuation on Apple, it's no surprise that they've recovered the way they have. But let's look at a forward valuation.

Uh, sorry if I said Tesla I'm at Apple Let's look at four evaluation on Apple and just see what Wall Street is pricing in. So right now we're looking at about six bucks expected uh through about September of 2023. So we take the current price about 146 71. divide that by six bucks.

you're trading for about 24.4 times earnings Now growth is expected to be flat this year, so you potentially if you want to do a PEG ratio analysis, you potentially have to look through this year. but after that, EPS is expected to grow at an average of 10 20, 24, 5, 6, 7. now you go ahead and pop up your uh your your P E ratio which we just calculated as a 24. Well yeah, 24.4 divide 24.4 divided by 10.

you're looking at trading for about 2.4 times PEG ratio. So a little bit rich I Think there's a lot of safety play going into Apple right when you've got Tesla trading closer to like a 1.2 Uh, you've got companies like AMD trading closer to a one and phase still sitting closer to a two along with Nvidia Apple's up there. That was kind of trading like a TSM a little rich on that PEG ratio, but that might be because these companies are just absolutely killing. Uh, complete crushing.

So really impressive. I Mean you got to just say you know, hats up here for for Apple, add revenue on Apple glasses, you know I don't really know how much uh, how big uh of the current. It'd be very interesting to see how big of the current income from Apple is advertising relative to basically just taking 30 on. uh, you know, let's say uh App Store uh uh, sales or or otherwise that would be very interesting.

Uh, because you know iCloud services or whatever I don't I wouldn't imagine. It's actually too ridiculously impressive. Uh, the advertising on so like I ads or whatever right now. Mostly because I think people are more inclined when you see ads on an app to just pay for the app.

At least you know the apps that I use on the phone. Most of them have in-app purchases and you're not really getting fed I ads. Uh, and we've seen the challenges of advertising on like Netflix or or whatever uh which which traditionally hasn't been very popular. We know Roku uh, at least over the last couple quarters, right? We know advertising with ad supported streaming on Netflix is relatively new, but they're saying the take rate is relatively low on in that Netflix On top of that, uh, you know you've got Roku who tries to advertise on Smart TVs and they're losing money hand over fists.

It's crazy. If you open up if you open up an iPhone 40 of the parts will be Samsung Yeah, I Mean that's that is totally and potentially true. for now. you could open it up and see a lot of parts from Qualcomm as well.

And what's remarkable is the designing that Apple is starting to push into chips and and and really not just neural net style chips or Gpus or CPU basically the the M1 chips or all of these together, right? You've got your CPU your Gpus, your neural net uh chips. Uh, right. Well, what's remarkable is it's not just those chips that they're looking to replace, it's even just the 5G antennas that Apple is trying to design themselves to replace. the service that Qualcom provides.

It's really incredible. Someone here writes the Outlook mail app is on iPhone is great for Gmail Etc See, that's wild. it's It's so interesting to me because somehow they've really managed to to keep people in this system so tightly that everybody else can run their business on an Apple. but you can't take the Apple specific services and run them on any other phone.

Fascinating. Um, very, very cool. So those are some thoughts that I have on Apple Pretty impressive I'd have to say now. uh, let's see here what I'd like to do is give a little bit of a househack Update: Give me one second here.

All right? Okay, so yeah, let's do that here. Okay, so uh, Elijah writes uh, let's F and go. I'm excited to see when Househack buys and where it buys. So I have a house hack update for you and it's um, I'm not going to go into every single detail, but it's going to be a little bit of of a shocker.

I Think our goal is not Uh has has been revised? Let's be clear about that. it's been revised. Uh, from from what our initial plans were, which was uh, basically buy amazing properties, huddle, and and do what we can to basically expand our ownership of real estate in the style of let's say, an Invitation Homes a black stone. uh, you name it something in that direction.

What we've actually found is that is uh, that is the low hanging fruit that is potentially the I I mean I Hate to say and this is not to be offensive to American Homes for Rent or Invitation Homes or whatever that's the bare minimum that we're expecting for House Hack is is to basically operate like that which those companies trade for two to 2.4 times book depending on on where the stock market is at the time. Uh, you know, House Hack right now is open for investors who are accredited at Uh at a one-to-one ratio. uh, which is basically a massive discount to what what you would normally expect for a uh, a normal sort of real estate holding company. But uh again, we realized that that is the low hanging fruit.

uh and I'm a I'm a big fan of constantly revising some people like to say flip-flopping I like to say revising and optimizing towards the most profitable structure. I Am a massive fan of minimal risk and massive cash flow at businesses. Cash flow I Want more cash flow and ultimately more cash flow is really really good for Uh for not only the company, but for employees and investors because more cash flow means more company BuyBacks more dividends Warren Buffett Just had a phenomenal piece on how great BuyBacks are for for companies and anybody to riding BuyBacks is is uh you know, either economically illiterate or basically aligned with A political agenda. And so what we've done is, we've revised uh, substantially the the upper tier goal of what Househack could achieve.

and uh, I'll give a few samples. But basically it starts with the idea of how can you become the essentially Robin Hood of real estate. uh, and how or or put another way, the Vanguard of real estate right? Think of uh, think of Vanguard as low-cost Uh, Index Fund investing of your choice. Think of Robin Hood as a commission free investing into stocks.

How can we create that sort of company with House Hack and that starts by buying real estate. But it doesn't have to have to end at buying real estate. So we finally found is really Us Shopping for Real Estate is just phase one of of essentially our own. you know, dare I borrow the term from Elon uh, the initial master a plan of a quote-unquote of House Hack which if the initial plan is hey, great, you know we raise money one to one.

A worst case scenario, we're valued like uh, like the competitors at a at a two, two and a half to one ratio. Wow, that's a 2X one and a half X right? That's our thesis now. I Want to be very clear about that. Uh, this is a startup.

This video is not a solicitation. You invest in Any startup. You could lose all your money, right? Things could go wrong. You got to read solicitations before you invest.

Don't invest blindly. Okay, all that we know that. Okay, I'm just giving sort of my opinion my thesis right now of of our vision. So my vision is that's sort of like again, bare minimum.

That's like the low hanging fruit like stuff would have to go really wrong to fail at that. Uh, to basically fail at competing with The Invitation Homes or whatever because we can buy amazing properties in great areas, manage them relatively easily, and just the equity we build alone should be very, very valuable. But we're realizing the systems that we have and the tools that we have or or the the software stack that we're building. Whether that's in Property Management renovation, deal finding, or or even the referral Network for deal finding that we're building out.

these these the the software stack alone. not something that you want to become reliant on, right? You don't want to pull off an open door where you blindly hire people to buy stuff off your software stack and then you in like an idiotic way. basically a knock on the door of bankruptcy. But then again, that's because the risk management policies at Open Door Trash, you know I was just in.

uh, insane. where was I was in Colorado Springs I go through an Open Door listing and what do I find find? Dead rats find? Like let me put it this way, out of the hundreds of homes that I've just been in in the last few months, every single Open Door listing that I've been in, which is probably about 10. every single one of them is trashy. They're either dead bugs.

it's been on the market for six days. Six months that is. It's overpriced. I've seen dead rats and Open Door listings.

I'm not making this stuff up. it's all on video. Uh, you look in, the smoke detectors are beeping or they're throwing on the floor, stuff's broken. Uh, the the upgrades are cheesy and crappy.

and and done. it's It's almost like the executives are sitting in their pedestal in some office somewhere at Open Door And and they're not actually getting on the ground and looking at their properties. Now that's not to bag on. Open Door Even though that's exactly what really what it is, it's it's to send a message to the CEOs of Open Door that hey, y'all are failing.

Maybe what you all ought to do is wake up a little bit and or go over to view your actual properties and see why they're not selling. See why the book value of your properties is continuously getting written down. and maybe then you'll realize why they're not selling, right? That's that's very important. So uh, how does how does Househack go from potentially the the bare minimum to using our software stack, and and of course, just just hard work and efforts to creating, uh, potentially a a uh, you know, 10 plus billion dollar company right? I mean that that's that's the long run goal.

How how do we turn what we can do at Househack into something that is an order of a magnitude bad? Where Now we'll we'll start slowly uh, in one area and sit there, hold and twiddle our thumbs. We we think we've discovered a way to generate massive cash flow uh, it. which which would enable us to basically create the the Robin Hood of real estate or the the Vanguard you know, ETFs of real estate. and uh, and and that that Vision will actually be agnostic of where or what we buy? we could buy anywhere in the United States we could buy.

uh, you know, in In we'd have to have a subsidiary do it because of the new rules in Canada but we could buy Canada we can buy commercial real estate. We could buy multi-family real estate. It really, the product doesn't matter anymore. it's kind of like, uh, you know, Robin Hood or Vanguard don't tell you what to invest in, they give you the choice and uh, we we have.

uh, we have a way to do exactly that. So that's really exciting because it means you know if if you want to invest in just multi-family There's an opportunity to do that with us. If you want to invest in just High cash flow single family, there's a way to do that So really, we we're We're rotating from this idea of okay, how sex just going to buy you know, 150 million dollars worth of homes uh and and then we'll sit there and twiddle our thumbs F that that's like to be. To be frank, that's like bare minimum, right? Uh, that's uh, that's that's the fallback plan.

Let's put it that way. Uh, the The Grandiose suggests that uh oh uh. you know it's a guarantee. Oh, that's it.

we're gonna IPO is a Robin Hood of real estate. There's a lot of work to do and it's going to be very, very difficult. It's going to require scaling. Uh uh, with with a lot of of smart people and hard-working people.

and and the next, the next decade, hopefully less, maybe seven years of scaling will be quite challenging. And uh, it'll be fun. Because we'll we'll be documenting all of that. Almost all of that on on YouTube here.

But uh, yeah. so there's a sort of a long answer to where will House Hack be buying It's uh, it's actually really, really, uh, exciting and uh, we can't wait. So um, all right. so that gives us a little bit of an update here.

Let's uh, let's keep going here. Um, let's see here. I Think we might have a little bit of a technical glitch based on some of the commentary here. Uh, stand by.

Uh, somebody mentioned the stream froze there. did the stream freeze for anybody else? Do we have a little issue there? I Think everything should be okay. It seems like it's okay on my end, but we're just going to take about 20 seconds to do a quick little confirmation here and then we'll We'll keep going. Strung by.

Well, it seems like everything is okay on this end. Good. Uh, uh. Let's see here happens when you mentioned Robinhood and Vanguard in the same sentence.

Oh, that's funny. Uh, all of YouTube is having an issue. Not just okay. It looks like it looks like YouTube in general had an issue.

Okay, well, there's nothing I could do about that then. So uh, so we'll just keep going then. Okay, so uh, that gives us some, uh, some coverage here. Uh, it looks like YouTube had a little a little bit of a maybe a little server reboot there.

No problem that happens to. um, it's worth taking a very quick look at what's going on with the break evens and bonds. Right now we're sitting at uh, bonds, uh, up again. about three basis points, 10-year treasury knocking on the door of 3.98 Boy, we start.

Crossing Four percent Again, real estate is going to hurt. It is going to be very painful, so that's not. Uh, that's not very good. Uh for for Real Estate Uh, and that's important to pay attention to because the beauty is with househack.

For example, we want to buy. uh what? Once we have confirmation that the pain is behind us? uh, and that'll give us plenty of time to build out what we're building And so we're very, very excited. All right. Uh, so five year break even sitting at about a 2.57 right now slightly down from the peak that we've seen last week, but certainly uh, matching some of the highs that we've seen in Uh in October, we look at Financial conditions.

Let's see here: Financial Conditions Again, the 10-year treasury right now sitting at 3.98 roughly rounding up a tiny little bit here. So Goldman Financial conditions should be slightly elevated. And yes, they absolutely are elevated. They are at the highest point of tightness that we have seen since the beginning of the year, sitting around Jan 6.

we did have a lull in about the second week of December and we have now exceeded that lull as well as the lull we had towards the end of Uh January So Bloomberg said a bearish truck is coming. You agree there, almost all of the institutions are bearish right now because they've They've been stuck off sides on on some of the rallies that we've seen over the last seven weeks, although the last week was a little bit more of uh of of a correction of some of that given that we saw the um, the reversal in a lot of uh, a lot of stocks, especially profitless Tech and also the Dow following to some of its lowest levels this year. So uh, let's see here. what shall we talk about? And next, uh, okay, we could do.

Oh, we got a lot to talk about. Okay, well I better I Better hurry up. Okay, let's start quickly with a catalyst. What's on the Catalyst calendar? uh for the week and then after we hit Catalyst We've got a lot to cover and a limited set of types, so let's make it efficient.

Okay, so uh, Catalyst Catalyst Catalyst Catalyst Oh boy, there's a lot. Okay, one sec, let's talk. Catalyst The first Catalyst that we've got to talk about is the set of earnings coming up this week. and then we're going to look at economic catalysts, as well as some projections for those economic catalysts.

So first, oh boy, we got a lot of catalysts coming up. Even what's coming up over the next couple weeks here. it's gonna be a big deal. Uh, obviously.

First things first: we've gone today: Monday Zoom Fubotv Lee Auto Be insightful, but maybe not as useful For the broader Market we'll get some more broader Market data from the earnings of Target Norwegian AutoZone Advance Auto Parts AMC Rivium First Solar Hewlett-Packard and Cracker Barrel. Now one of the things that I'm looking for at companies like AutoZone Target and Cracker Barrel even AMC is I Want to hear that the availability of Labor is expanding? That would be consistent with the disinflationary argument that in the long term we are not expecting to get Paul Volcker. If we hear that there are still elevated employment costs and that those costs are not just staying elevated, but they are indeed. Rising then we've got problems.

and AutoZone Advance Auto Parts AMC Target These earnings on Tuesday are going to give us a lot of insight. Now do remember that we have a fight going on between Ape shareholders and AMC Remember AMC Basically, and they're being sued for this. They basically worked around the shareholder dilution limits by creating the Ape shares and doing this reverse split. This is what I warned of many months ago when the Ape shares first came out for AMC that these Ape shares were likely just a big scam to basically dilute shareholders.

Further, a lot of people in the AMC Community got very upset at me. but the people who actually listened to me are very, very happy. Uh, that they listened because uh, as as I predicted when I sold my Ape shares at eight dollars, I expected they would go under a dollar. Uh, and that they have.

Now, they've recently risen slightly of a dollar because there's that Hope that maybe they'll be able to merge with AMC shares which will just lower the valuation for AMC even further, especially since their plan to wipe out their debt so far has barely come to fruition. They waited way too long to dump on poor retail shareholders and unfortunately, they raised uh I believe has last count only about 150 million dollars, which is great, but it's a far cry from the billions of dollars they need to actually wipe out a fair debt. so they should. And their average sale, by the way was somewhere last I checked somewhere around two bucks, maybe 220 for Apes shares dumped on retail investors.

Big fail. They should have been dumping right away when they launched this sucker at eight bucks. Seven bucks, Six dollars, Five dollars. I mean I Know hindsight is 20 20 but I also said that and I'm not saying AMC should listen to me.

but day one, I'm like best thing AMC could do right now is just dump on retail at eight bucks. and uh, they they waited quite a while and and now they're just. you know. worst case scenario: didn't pay off much of the debt and you're getting sued.

Uh to the Nats High Any, because uh, you basically are are circumventing the limits shareholders have placed on your ability to dilute and pay off your debt. uh, via, you know an ape is your work around, but that's not what shareholders originally wanted so to be really interesting. Uh, but anyway, that's the little rant there on AMC on Uh Norwegian Obviously we expect travel demand to continue to remain very, very strong, so I'm not too terribly interested. uh, in expecting any kind of weirdness from Norwegian Again, more interested in sort of that staple slash Community consumer discretionary view that we're going to get from Target AutoZone Advanced Auto Parts Usually in recessionary environments, ironically, auto parts sales go down because they make a lot of money off discretionary purchases.

Those will be like radar detectors. Those are great, by the way. Get one. Uh, you know, hubcaps? whatever.

like fancy extra things that that you can put in your car. uh, sound systems, whatever upgrades usually Mufflers whatever. Uh, Rivien, we'll see how much more money they're losing for cars they're manufacturing. I will say I was in a Rivian.

Absolutely gorgeous. just like the Lucid that I bought. Absolutely gorgeous technology. Technology wise, don't hold the candle whatsoever to Tesla and that's not just being a Tesla pole.

That's that's somewhat that's trying to understand what's the competition up to and it's Beauty over Tech And unfortunately I don't think that's where the younger Generations want to be. Don't kill me wrong. The older generation still want that impression of you know, 30, 50 for 60 years of reliable ability from Brands like Toyota And and you know the old dealership model. The old service model kind of I hate to say it older Generations a little bit more likely to be stuck in that past whereas newer Generations much more likely to say I don't care about the damn stitching I Want the technology? It's interesting, but we'll see.

Uh, we'll see. how much more money Rivian is losing. First Solar might give us a little bit more insight into the housing market. remember uh Q over Q uh forecast for end phase were flat so I wouldn't be super optimistic on a thirst.

a solar doing super well. uh in in Q1 here. although remember Enphase beat uh expectations. They ran in the aftermarket and it wasn't until the next morning that they actually collapsed.

uh and I do still think there's a risk of a retracement to about 160 for end phase. In in my opinion, that ends up being sort of a load the boat time, sort of back up the truck and and open the gate and throw in as many shares as you can get. hashtag not Financial Advice: even though I'm a personal financial advisor I don't know who you are and I don't know what your personal finances are so that should be obvious. Should go without saying.

but whatever. Wednesday We have the Tesla investor day. Uh, we will. Uh, we also just learned that Tesla is a German plant and Giga Berlin basically has hidden output of 4 000 cars per week per Reuters Neo reports Wednesday the dollar store Lowe's Kohl's snowflakes Salesforce box plug American Eagle If I was going to be bullish on anything during this next week, it'd probably be the SAS companies that'd be your sales force and your snowflake unless that's already been priced in.

mostly because most of the SAS and cyber security companies we expected would be doing terribly and that is like Wall Street in general expected would be doing terribly. They've all been just crushing expectations and then they run afterwards. Now be careful, even if they run afterwards, they could end up pulling an Airbnb on you where they run afterwards and then they just sell off right afterwards. That's been something we have been seeing.

So you get a run right after earnings, you get maybe a two or three day run, and then you start getting the sell down. Honest. The momentum. Fades So beware of that.

that is possible as well. Also, beware that this week our investor a day flash sale will be expiring. So take advantage of the flash sale on any of the programs on Building your Wealth that includes the Zero to Millionaire Real Estate Investing course. So you could learn how to become a millionaire with starting with Zero in Real estate.

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So what do we have as well? So that's so that's Wednesday Box plug American Eagle These will be interesting, of course. Obviously, we're going to look at things probably like margin compression at the dollar store Lowe's Kohl's Amer American Eagle Most of these are expecting to have pretty cautious forecasts. For 2023, they're expecting a fall in Q4 year over year. same thing for Macy's on Thursday Thursday we're going to get Best Buy Macy's Kroger Costco chargepoint Dell Nordstrom C3 AI In a weird way, would be most optimistic about C3ai because uh, and I don't really like the company so and I wouldn't I probably am not going to play that.

Although I will be playing some trades probably today, I'm expecting to play some trades so stay tuned. If you're in the Stocks and Psychology money group I Expect to do some sweet sweet yield farming on some some, uh, some opportunities I see. So if you want to get all those Buy sell alerts, check out that stocks and site course. But what we have here, we've got uh, Kroger, Costco the Staples uh uh spaces in my opinion restaurants Costco grocery stores.

These are probably going to be in my opinion where we have the most margin pressures and the smallest PP smallest amount of pricing power. Uh, so I'm probably not too optimistic over here on these earnings though. they'll tell I mean Costco has been an incredible stock during the pandemic. It's retraced a little bit since that pandemic, but it's going to be interesting to see if Staples are starting to show any of that weakness.

So then let's look at economic data. Obviously we know: March 10th we're going to get the Bureau of Labor Statistics Labor Report. It's not going to be this: Friday Even though this Friday is the first Friday of the month, we're not going to be getting the February labor report until March 10th. We're going to get CPI on March 14th, 5, 30 a.m I'll obviously be covering that live I'll cover the labor report live as well.

In fact, much like I'm streaming right now, I will I will be covering those uh March 22nd Fomc will be covering that obviously as well. Then let's go take a peek at some of the other economic data coming out this week. So today we're going to be getting uh, some data here shortly on durable good orders and pending home sales pending home sales surveys looking at a month over month gain of about one percent for the survey, but that is going to be down from Two and a half percent prior. Wouldn't be surprised if we missed on that.

mostly because interest rates have really been popping up Yes, there was some in Euphoria and excitement towards the end of December early January for Real Estate A lot lot of the builders are talking that up. A lot of Realtors are saying Oh Yay, that's it. We must have hit the bottom. Yeah, well, we'll see.

given that mortgage rates had fallen under six percent and guess what Now they're solidly back over seven percent as yields on a day by day basis continue to rise. I Expect that pain to happen for at least the next three months in the real estate sector. So we'll see. though.

uh, we'll We'll start having our some more real estate data tomorrow as well. s p CoreLogic 20 a city month over month data, we expect to see a negative point four percent from the prior of 0.54 retail inventories. Will Come Out Tomorrow Uh, we'll expect about a point two percent month over month growth. Their growth.

We've really actually seen inventory stabilize, which hurts a little bit the The Narrative that we're expecting massive disinflation. Unfortunately, because uh, you know, higher inventories sort of beget more disinflation. But inventories have really been stabilizing pretty quickly. Splanchians have been stabilizing as well though, which hopefully just maybe doesn't create deflation, but does does keep things stable.

That's the goal We do get ISM data That's the Institute for Supply side Management. We'll get data on prices paid this week on March 1st. That's Wednesday Again, same day as that flash sale. Uh uh for for the Tesla investor day.

Although that flash sale has already begun today, you have a manufacturing data from Uh The Institute for Supply Chain management coming out that day as well. The projection for prices paid is 46.5 versus 44.5 Anything under 50 is a sign of contraction in prices, so it's actually good. If we could just hit survey here, that's actually not that terrible. Factory orders on the six which is actually already next week we will get ISM Services prices paid on Friday though no forecast or survey yet on that and so we'll also see ISM employment.

So we've got some catalysts for the week. Most of the catalysts this week are going to be earnings and the big catalysts don't actually come until March 10, 14, 22. So mark your calendar for those. and of course, in the days prior to those, I'll be uh, making sure to release what the surveyed expectations are for those reports.

so always check back regularly. uh for the uh, the Catalyst video so you can get the latest survey data especially if you're looking to trade on some of that I'd love to provide you some of the data going into some of the uh, the expectations that we have so we'll see super exciting somebody here. Mr Bucker says a meta had the same experience after earnings as well. Maybe that sort of rise and then fall? Uh, unpopular opinion: A 60 40 portfolio is back in verse 60 40 though.

60 Bonds 40 equities? Well, that's an idea. Uh, this time is different. It's counter-intuitive Stock market has always gone up. Therefore, the statement should be thrown out of the window entirely.

That's interesting. Uh, interesting commentary here. All right. So that is our Catalyst setup.

and uh, we'll see. So check out those programs linked down below and building your wealth. Uh and uh. let's move on so let's see what we got now.

Now we've got. let's see here. Uh oh yeah, we got we gotta. We could look at the bear case.

We've also got. uh, some talk about a comedian who's now getting canceled. Uh now. I'd like to actually play some parts of that, but for a moment I Want to hop on over here and listen to Squawk Box just for a moment to catch up to see what the suits are saying.

Thesis: We have to see Top Line and bottom line growth. So once and we concluded with Peter Krauss and I've heard it so many times over the years. Oh, it's a stock. Pickers Market It's a market of stocks, not a stock market I've heard anything in but I Guess it's true if you have.

If you can identify tech companies that are going to grow their earnings regardless or this year regardless, should I use it Regardless, use this year regardless. three of them. So this year, regardless of the economy, if you can find it anyway, regardless, should you buy? Should you focus on fundamentals of the individual. It's not a monolith.

You can't just buy. Tech You got to buy stocks that are companies that are going to succeed. That's right. I Probably if I could build a portfolio that had all sectors represented I clearly would be underweight the tech sector well.

Tech sector in the S P is about 25, so that's a pretty big slug. But you're absolutely right. Joe I Think there are some companies that have a short, intermediate, long-term investment thesis that isn't about just cutting costs I see some interesting opportunities in automobile and Industrial Semiconductors, a couple of cyber security names, and even some uh, data networking companies. And some of them.

they're actually old school that I'm interested in right here right now, did you? I Don't know where they find these people from? It's fine, it's fine. but boy the the traditional narratives that that we get on CNBC sometimes I I just I can't help sometimes think uh unlike some people are great but I can't sometimes help but think people have to go on the shows and and just say something uh wild, uh it just to get more views race basically to get to get clipped and I get it but like I think one of the ones that really kills me is who was it it was uh, last year for most of January February March April basically the entire year down. Nope. Here Comes daily Dave what's his name? uh Mr Mr Lee I think it was not I don't think it was Dave what's his name I don't know the guy.

there's a bull they always have on. he's just he's bullish no matter what the market is like I never hear a bearish word out of his out of his talk uh, or or out of what he says uh And then you have so many institutions that are always like oh, oh, text over, that's it, text trash and I'm just like I I don't know what you're seeing I mean the valuations on some of these tech companies have gotten so delicious uh, relative to their historical Norms Meanwhile, you people are still buying uh Consumer Staples which I think are going to get wrecked. hey, maybe maybe I'm wrong I don't think I am. but at least don't put my opinion out there I mean like I've said many times before, Bearish.

Consumer Staples bearish real estate right now, but there's so many opportunities I think in uh in Tech specifically staying away from obviously negative free cash flowing because I do think they're real recessionary risks I'm actually preferring the hardware space within Tech uh whether that's um, whether that's EVS energy or uh, or or a chip making I think uh, that's uh, these are future plays that are so critically important. but anyway, whatever my Tom Lee that's what it is Tom Lee Exactly yes, oh my gosh, like Neil Stat or something like that, that guy's always on there uh, talking about how everything's perfect and I'm like oh, let's let's look at this. Can we? Can we spend it? You know what? I have a challenge for him I have a challenge for Tom Lee Tom Lee if you're watching this but you probably aren't because you're only reading the bull thesis. um I'm a challenge next time you go on.

CNBC say one thing the Bears have right and how they potentially could be right. Try it. it'll be very interesting of course. then maybe who knows.

Maybe because then then you know you flip-flopped uh or or people might say you flip-flopped uh maybe CNBC won't invite you back. so I suppose that's that's also a risk. But anyway. uh.

all right so uh yeah yeah. I still struggle with that dying on a hill for the sake of ego. You know actually a lot of entrepreneurs suffer from that. uh, you know.

For example, I'll give you an example so I had this attorney who who had an opinion that we should do something one way and I thought that one way was too aggressive I didn't think it was necessary. so I told that attorney why I thought their uh, their move was a little too aggressive and I kind of opened the door and gave them the opportunity to to kind of like take the L on that one because I'm the client and ultimately I decide and uh it. and in this case I think my strategy is playing out substantially better. and unfortunately and you get this with entrepreneurs regularly.

It's almost like every follow-up message now is is is why they believe their their original thesis is correct I see that with agents as well like an agent Poo-poo's a house So much that when the client turns around and says well but I really like the house now the age is just every turn has to find a reason to support their original thesis. People get really stuck in this in in how hard it is to maybe see the other side. and and I think there's too much of an ego to like. Okay, let's do that strategy.

Let's work together on mastering that strategy right? Like I'm a big fan of that. I Don't think like somebody's trying to keep score about how oh you originally said you were right. Therefore, you can't change your opinion right? Uh, like you don't have to be so stuck in that that one range. So I like that idea or that phrase of you know people sort of die on the hill of things that like aren't worth fighting for sometimes.

but it's very very common on In for entrepreneurs for business owners, real estate agents, attorneys. Uh, very very common I think the best thing people even employees. I Think the best thing you could do is is be fluid, give your opinion but also be open to going the other direction because the more you try to dig yourself in, the the more difficult it is to to work with you. Uh yeah, you know because even if somebody's going in a different direction, that ends up being wrong.

It's supposed to be a team right? Uh, it's kind of like the uh just to maybe try a sports analogy. It's kind of like hey, you know you think uh play XYZ is the best move and uh, the the football coach says no, we're doing play ABC and you're like man But I really think XYZ is going to be better here. What are you going to like? get up off the line and kind of like yeah, you're not doing my play I'll just stand over here like well then you're fired. You know, uh like no, you get in there and and even if that's not what you think is the best strategy you, you put.

you put everything in that strategy that's chosen with the team. I think that's uh, that's really important in team building. but I think that's self. a self-awareness is super important.

uh and uh and being open and receptive to to the other side's arguments. that's what I try to do on the channel here right as as we we look at uh you know, okay what? what are the Theses that are that are opposite of me right? I Think that's the most important thing to pay attention to Okay, so uh, that uh, that's uh, that's sort of. We'll call that the rant CNBC and the rant dying on the hill rant. Okay, now we've got to touch on comedians getting canceled, come out comedians getting canceled and SNL the mainstream media.

This is disgusting apparently. Now you've got the comedian who writes the Dilbert comics get canceled because of some courageous comments that he made according to the mainstream media. And let's take a look at some of the mainstream media's bashing that's going on. and look: I just want to provide you a little bit of backdrop before we get started in that when I ran for governor in California I learned firsthand and I came in second place in retail.

Recall: candidates excuse me uh, I won San Francisco which is that's awesome. Like anyone in San Francisco who voted for me, anyone who voted for me in general, thank you Y'all are amazing. Well almost a million uh votes in Cali which is fantastic. But what? what I want to mention is one of the massive things that I learned was actually about the media and I didn't learn about that media aspect directly.

uh from from my assumptions I was told it after after my Uh election campaign failed I met with individual reporters who reached out to me who wanted to sit down with coffee privately off record with me who work at news stations and TV stations and radio stations and paper organizations in our state And they're like Kevin You've got to know the media is not what you think it is and I'm like, what do you mean and very clearly and I'm gonna simplify here. the media is directed by profit and if let's say the Governor has 10 events scheduled over the next two months and we send a reporter to cover you and the Governor catches wind of that because you're trying to Dethrone The Governor The Governor could say hey, we're not going to allow your media organization into our next 10 press events because you're covering meet Kevin That literally happened. Not only that, and not only does that kind of rigging happen in politics and media, but I'm told from reporters that they could be reading off a teleprompter knowing that something is a lie, knowing it's a lie and still have to read it. otherwise they're fired.

That is the mainstream media for you. Now we're going to talk about cancer culture in the mainstream media in just a moment in terms of what's happening, but it's disgusting and look I feel like in the past I I used to be way too trusting of of the mainstream media I Think that's what we're taught, you know? and you get a I hate to use this word, but you get a liberal education at a college or or you know, even our high schools. I Mean that's what you're getting these days. You know it's Keynesian economic thought.

You don't even get taught Austrian economics. You don't really get taught the other perspective. It's oh no. it's the New York Times.

It's the Wall Street journalist. It's it's only the mainstream media, right? So so what ends up happening is uh, is is you start kind of cracking that thought by realizing oh my gosh like it you. you might not be getting coverage because there's a profit motive uh, and it's like a lot of people are going to hear that and be like, well, duh but that it would extend to the extreme of uh, media reporters lying to your face. It's kind of shocking, but then again, we've even seen that happening with Tucker Carlson you've got uh uh lawsuits that are now revealing that people like Tucker Carlson Laura Ingram and Sean Hannity knew the election likely was not rigged, but they were still peddling that narrative because that's what Their audience essentially wanted to hear.

That was sort of the The Click bait of the day and they're being compelled by the corporate directive to cover stories a certain way to either whether it's creative divisiveness or or whatever. Uh, and that's the same thing that I experienced uh in in my campaign for governor and it's just it's shocking and it's disheartening. But unfortunately, now you're getting a lot of that similar uh style of of censorship in in how the media is reacting. Uh, so first of all, here we have the uh, you know, the the opening to the SNL skip.

Uh, obviously we've covered this before, but the opening to the SNL skit was basically hey, you know, let's let's make fun of Covid and Big Pharma and uh, some of the reaction to that was fascinating. Let me quickly remind you what that sounded like. Let's go ahead and give this a little play here. Okay, so the movie goes like this: the biggest drug cartels in the world Get together and buy up all the media and all the politicians and force all the people in the world stay locked in their homes and people can only come out if they take the cartels drugs and keep taking them over and over.

I Threw the script away I Mean who is going to believe that crazy? All right. So that's that's sort of our uh, our our intro to SNL here. Uh, and these are you know I Go through I've got a section over here where you can go through my likes on Twitter and you can see what I like, whether or not I actually like it or whatever. but it's just a way for you to kind of see what I'm paying attention to if you want on Twitter and this is very interesting.

Woody Harrelson The biggest drug cartels in the world. Get together and buy up all the media and then look at this: Rolling Stone Woody Harrelson Spreads anti-vaxx conspiracies during SNL Monologue I Think at this point a lot of us are looking and going. Man, you know more and more data is coming out saying that booster may not be very effective. Whether that's biologically because of the effects of known as priming.

Whether that's because of uh, of of how quickly uh, Covet is evolving. Whether it's the fact that uh, Kovid is is a type of human coronavirus, which the common cold is caused by four types of coronaviruses, and interestingly, studies are showing that if you've had a cold briefly before covet exposure, you might actually be resistant to Covid because you've had a common cold exposure, right? So there's this: This idea that something is anti-vaxx is basically like trying to say oh, you're some extremist alt-right Winger uh, who who you know is is a dominant idiot and I think now, uh, the world is waking up to you know, maybe I don't need to take the next boost. Or maybe maybe we had something that isn't that great. Maybe myocarditis because of the the proteins that are are uh, you know, floating around in our bloodstream and causing inflammation of the heart muscles? Maybe Maybe that's not a good thing for younger people, especially younger males to have uh you know, for weeks in their systems after potentially uh, potentially a a booster or or the original vaccine leading to the potential sudden death of of a higher level of uh, younger Americans than previously we've got.

They're more multiple results out showing that more younger males in their 20s are suffering from myocarditis or heart related conditions after the pandemic than before the pandemic. Mainstream media tries in some ways to spin that narrative is oh well, that's because they had coven as opposed to having the vaccine. But hey, you know there's always going to be spit. But anyway, I mean look at this.

Woody Harrelson Getting derailed is basically being an anti-vaxx in Variety Daily Beasts Rolling Stone Huffington Post But it's not just him, it's not just him, it's it's this over here. Watch this. So uh, here you've got this. this poll that was put together by uh, where is it here we go Whereas Moosen reports puts together this poll and this pole that gets put together is it's okay to be white 72 percent of Americans agree 12 disagree 69 of Democrats agree uh and then and then it goes on to black people can be racist too.

79 of Americans are great, so on and so forth. So basically it's it's this this poll is being conducted that that is is in some ways trying to uh, evoke, dare I say, uh, emotion right now I Think they actually do a pretty decent job of explaining why they're conducting polls the way they are I'll go ahead and play that for a moment because it is quite enlightening. Uh, let's grab this for a moment here and listen into some of their commentary here. And then we'll get into the comedian who's now being canceled by Cancel Culture actually the comedian who creates the column Dilbert or the the skit Dilbert Uh, it's basically being dropped from newspapers for being called a racist for some of the comments he made and I'll play those comments in just a moment.

But, but listen in here to a moment. But what they say about some of their polls and we've increasingly heard the sentiment that people have lost faith in polling. But let me explain our role at Rasmussen Reports and prove to you why now more than ever you need us to exist, We tell you what America really thinks, and I can tell you that increasingly, the reality of American public opinion does not match what you're being told in the news at schools or colleges, by corporations and by your public officials. Follow the links to our two biggest polls of the year, which I'll put in the YouTube description for an example about how we change the narrative by proving coveted vaccinated Americans are suffering from major side effects and how nearly half the country is concerned the vaccines are causing a significant number of unexplained deaths.

Why do we now? I'm going to hop around a little bit so you could see he's making this argument that hey, like look we're trying we're doing. Even though people don't trust polls that much anymore, we're trying to do polls on on uh, things that might be deemed a little more sensitive to try to figure out. Do people believe what the mainstream media is telling them like is The Narrative of mainstream media actually aligning with what people believe and take a look at this, here's a poll that shows: do you agree or disagree? It's okay to be white. Can you add these up? You've got about 70 somewhat or strongly agree.

Okay, fine, let's go to some of these uh, these other polls here and then we'll I'll go ahead and also show you the comedian uh who got canceled some of the things that he's saying so you can see some of the polls here. you can watch uh, their their full breakdown but let's move over. Black people can be racist as well. You could see, uh, sort of the breakdown you've got over here.

And it's these polls that spawned uh, the the uh response from a comedian in in the live streams that he does sort of on on topics that he likes to cover and I would like to show you his response because he is suffering from cancer culture now in fact, uh, he particularly gets canceled because in his show called Real Coffee with Scott Adams he talks about this poll and by talking about this poll, uh, he ends up getting canceled. Uh. In some of the comments he makes by the USA Today Network which includes I mean dozens of different uh uh um uh newspapers such as the Arizona Republic the Saint Augustine Record a Courier-Journal Austin American Statesman hundreds more Washington Post L.A Times San Antonio Express Philadelphia Inquirer Chicago Tribune Cleveland Plain Dealer All of these uh, apparently have dropped Scott Adams because of some of his comments. Uh, he thinks he's essentially being fully canceled and some of the VPS of content for example, a VP of content over at Michigan's M Live Media says the group has zero tolerance for racism and we're certainly not going to spend our money supporting purveyors of it.

And so really, you've got a poll and then now you have a comedian who's talking about that poll and making some commentary on it. Uh, it's some of it in in a way to sort of evoke emotion to provide his Solutions and I think his Solutions are interesting and worth talking about. but these are the segments that got him canceled. but I want you to see what you think about and I want to hear from you in the comments what you think about some of the solutions that he proposes.

Uh, so let's go ahead and jump into this here. so let me see here. Uh, okay, so uh and what? let me let me clarify when I say comedian I should be saying cartoonist I think that's that's the more appropriate and uh, all right here we go. provocative Liverpool Today they said uh, do you agree or disagree with the statement uh, it's okay to be white that was an actual question Rasmussen asked you know white and black voters and and probably others uh, do you disagree or agree with a statement it's okay to be white 26 percent of blacks said no, it's not okay to be white 21 weren't sure Adam Together that is 47 of black respondents were not willing to say it's okay to be white that that actually, that's like a real poll.

This just happened. did you have any idea would would you have imagined that that could have happened? So I realized um, as you know, I've been identifying as black for a while years now because I Like you know, I like to be on the winning team and I like to help and I always thought, well, if you help the black community, that's sort of the biggest lever you know you could. you can find the the biggest benefit. So I thought, well, that's the hardest thing and the biggest benefit.

So I'd like to focus a lot of my life resources in helping black Americans So much so that I started identifying as black to just be on the teemos of it. But it turns out that nearly half of that team doesn't think I'm okay to be white which is of course why I identified as black because so I could be on the winning team for a while. but I have to say uh, this is the first political poll that ever changed my activities I Don't know that that's ever happened before. you know, Normally you see a poll, you just look at it, you go, ah, whatever you know.

Oh, this is interesting what other people think. but as of today, I'm going to re-identify as white because I don't want to be a member of a hate group I'd accidentally joined a hate group. So if if you know nearly half of All Blacks are not okay with white people according to this poll, not according to me. according to this poll, that's a hate group.

all right. So there's this se