Beat Kevin report it is already episode 22. how exciting! Welcome back! We've got a lot to cover and yesterday of course was the Super Bowl Oh boy. so we're gonna talk about a little bit about the Super Bowl We'll talk about the Chinese balloons. We'll talk Tesla We'll talk markets.

We'll talk Catalyst We got a lot to cover, so let's get started. First thing. Oh my gosh, some of the ads at the Super Bowl were ridiculous and when I say ridiculous I being frustrating, but probably nowhere near as frustrating as this one guy got. okay.

and there's this video of him circulating on Twitter and it's kind of a little bit embarrassing, but let's just say he's not very happy that, uh, his team lasts the game and uh, when the Chiefs make a pretty easy kickoff, look at what happens to this guy here. Oh, we'll go ahead and play and we'll have the audio on too. All right, ready for this? Here we go: Destroys the TV. It's almost like he's gonna start attacking people.

So anyway, destroys the TV completely off the wall. Um, this is a pretty pretty. um let's just say he's very passionate, but uh, then again, you know he had somebody uh rooting for uh, you know his team. uh that.

uh generally. uh, you bet against I Hate to say that. but uh, we did find out that yes one of the biggest fans near Billy happens to be Jim Cramer so of course we had to in the honor of it. had to mention inverse Kramer is back again.

And so when Kramer went to the World Series Well let's just say fairly last and now the Eagles have lost and uh, Jim Kramer is on that side as well. So so maybe that individual needs to talk to Jim Cramer about what's going on here. But anyway, one of the most entertaining ads that I thought if you haven't seen it yet and I'd love to touch on it briefly was and we didn't even realize it was a car ad at first because we missed the early part of it the first five seconds or so of it. But I have to say the premature electrification ad was absolutely fire.

Uh, that would be this ad right here if you haven't seen it. I'll give it a quick play because it's just worth mentioning and bringing up. They did a great job listening. Are you excited about buying an electric vehicle but worried that it could leave you unsatisfied? Then you could be one of many Americans Concerned about premature electrification symptoms may include fearing you might not be able to last as long as you'd like.

There was plenty of charge before. Sometimes it goes away a lot of times. I've been working a lot being unsure if you have enough power to handle your payload. so just I'm going to pause quickly for a moment.

Keep in mind the Brilliance of this Dodge Ram ad is that you literally have uh, people who consider electric vehicles when they want to go buy a new car. But what happens is they're worried about the whole range anxiety aspect because we have gas stations All Over America and even though we've got great Tesla Supercharging networks a lot of electric vehicle companies don't have great supercharger networks. For example, Lucid uses the Electrify America Supercharger Network and so you have this commercial that's playing this double innuendo. It almost makes it seem like it's an Ed ad on a rental dysfunction ad.

Um, but anyway, the Brilliance of it is uh, this this uh, worry about basically running out of power too soon and having to stop and uh, really? uh as a as a Dodge Ram commercial pickups being essentially the number one selling vehicle in America uh is in my opinion, just pure Brilliance in terms of marketing. Uh, of course, anytime we get electric vehicle ads like the GM electric vehicle at, you end up seeing Tesla searches Spike without Tesla sending it and spending a dime. That happened yesterday during the game as well as soon as the other manufacturers started running EV ads. Tesla searches Spike Tests actually adjusted their prices just minutes before the game which I Thought that was quite interesting, but we'll talk about that later.

But let's keep going with the ad for a moment. I Don't know if I got the power for this baby I'm adventurous I Like to go all the way I don't want to have to question if we're even gonna make it? Yeah, it's a concern. lacking the confidence about getting and being able to keep a charge. having to stop every time.

we got really excited that wouldn't work for me. Stop start, stop start. If PE premature electrification is something you're worried about, go to Ramrev.com and find out at the Ram 1500 rev with options being designed to extend range in satisfying ways is right for you. This This was by far the one of my favorite ads and uh, there was only really one ad.

uh that beat this. Uh, until this particular ad. uh I I mean the one that I'll show in a moment until the next ad. Uh, this one by far in my opinion took the cake it was.

It was so good. Uh, so I really enjoyed that one. Uh, the the entire game in my opinion. Really, really good though.

Uh, with the exception of course a lot of folks really frustrated about the holding call and I'll go to that ad and just just a moment. but uh, it's worth just bringing up the holding call a lot. A lot of upset people. uh talking about this, uh on the internet.

uh Twitter's going crazy over the holding call. uh probably a lot obviously of Eagles fan. It's not very happy, but uh, here's just somebody who happens to have the clip so shout out to that's good sports. uh and their Channel but uh, here's your within the last you know.

two and a half three minutes of the game. the nice reset to first down the Chiefs get to milk the clock down and end up kicking the field goal. but uh, this holding call right here got people pretty frustrated over this because they're not even in a catchable position, doesn't look like they're impeded whatsoever on the move over here. Uh, and getting called out for holding on that? uh, setting up the Chiefs there a little bit of a stretch I mean hey, you know they could have won anyway, but it's leading a lot of people to think.

Okay, all right, that's it. It's official. the Super Bowl was rigged. People had a lot of bets going on the Super Bowl.

In fact, there were potentially 50 million online vets. That's 50 million individual online bets made online on the Super Bowl and what you ended up having was over 16 billion dollars of bets riding on various different aspects of this. uh of the Super Bowl Really incredible. And that is.

that's a whole lot of money. Uh, and this is the first time that you've seen so much betting happen. And as well, because betting is actually sports betting is actually legal. or the Super Bowl was being held unlike last year when it was at the Sofi stadium in California where you're not allowed to bet.

One thing that did frustrate me though was they didn't show us the color of the Gatorade that ended up getting spilled on the winning coach. We didn't They totally missed that angle cut where Rihanna announcing her pregnancy was really like awesome. Like what a cool way to do it and good on her I mean she's got to be like six or seven months pregnant. but for taking the cake by far what I'm about to show you absolutely destroyed us because let's just say and I'll explain afterwards.

but we fell victim to this as well. So we're watching this ad on Jesus and then after the Jesus had we're like all right, looks like we're going back to the game. So what happens? here's the ad. Yeah, so far these teams they've really let's take a journey.

So basically you've got to be here and this is by far marketing brilliance. The game supposedly comes back with two sports commenters talking about oh, game, is it going as expected. Not saying anything particularly about the game, but they set it all up to make it look like we were back at the Super Bowl and that the commercials were over. and then all of a sudden it looks like somebody on the smart TV is starting to screw with the settings like they're sitting on the remote control.

As soon as the little thing came up, all of us started looking at each other and we're like What who's sitting on the remote? Get off and I felt so embarrassed afterwards because by the time the ad was over I'm the guy standing there with like I I got up to get the remote. we have a little wall mount for it and I'm I'm getting the remote and I'm trying to hit the cancel button on the TV when we realized we got had I was the idiot holding the remote like my God that was marketing Brilliance I mean we got trolled so hard that was by far uh, the uh, the the greatest uh that was. that took the cake from premature electrification. my gosh, that was for sure a win right there.

uh so Super Bowl that was pretty intense uh and really enjoyed that. uh that was uh also a very good game. They enjoyed it I mean I I know you've got some of the you know the the ref calls are going to come up as uh as frustrating I mean I I don't know I feel like being a ref is probably the most thankless job there is. You don't really get any of the glory.

you're kind of only hated when you make a call. it's like you're better off just sort of Disappearing into non-existence now. I You know I didn't have a hat in this ring in terms of who would win or or whom I was uh, betting on I didn't make any bets on the game. Uh, although we'll be doing a big uh trading challenge starting this week probably with CPI with uh, our team and then of course posting those trades with course members.

One of the things that we're actually thinking about doing and and it's this one's more for the lulls. but what we might do is anytime Jim Cramer says something we might try to figure. okay, what's what's best positioned? From like a volatility point of view to potentially volatility trade. Uh, the opposite of of some of the Korean trades, he should double down on that like he he should own that because he gets so much attention.

Uh, for for people inverse training him? uh, it's it's pretty incredible. So uh, but yeah, and I mean look. Super Bowl Absolutely awesome. Elon Musk Was there uh with uh Rupert Murdoch the founder of Fox News and News Corp uh and his wife.

You did have one anti-tesla ad, but apparently the guy didn't have enough money to actually air the anti-tesla full self-driving ad in every state and not even in like the Los Angeles area. We didn't see it. We're all like we. we were all waiting for the anti-tesla ad.

we never got served the anti-tesla ad. So I guess the anti-tesla guy He is able to say oh yeah, we were an Advertiser in the Super Bowl but didn't like select markets. Ah, stupid. Probably probably doesn't want to invest in California because people like Tesla's out here.

but uh otherwise look I hope you had a great time at the Super Bowl if you watched it, that was uh, it was fun. It was very entertaining, very engaging. So uh, do I think it's rigged? Oh man, you know I don't want to upset half of the people involved. uh in the Super Bowl but you know I I I Don't think it was the best call? uh to rigged hashtag rigged is literally trending uh on Twitter right now.

Uh, you know, do I think that was prematurely rigged? Probably not. Uh, Is it possible? Sure, Maybe. But what's fascinating it or what I think should come out of it is this potential for maybe some like transparent voting on these sort of calls right where? Basically, maybe you have a council of I don't know. uh, some sort of, uh, statistically significant number of refs.

and maybe they do this, but it's not super transparent to us, right? We just get the call out of the box. Oh okay, yeah, it's that way or that way, right? Um, maybe what they need to come up with is some form of uh, uh, you know, transparent Board of of people who review it and maybe it's like, uh, let's just say a 21 person board or something like that, or 12 person board. whatever. and you could actually see how each individual person voted that goes into making that call because then that way if it comes or you know you come to find out that maybe one of the people on that board that voted one way was actually making bets on the game that would benefit from that call.

Uh, you know we'd be able to smoke that out, right? That's probably where in the future things need to go. We're big fans obviously here on the channel of transparency and I think most of you in finance are big fans of transparency. In fact, there was this uh Bloomberg piece this morning talking about uh, basically insider trading now happening not through individual stocks of companies, but through basically ETFs that have a lot of exposure to certain stocks. So basically what what could happen is you might have the SEC watching and this relates to Super Bowl but you might have the SEC, the Security and Exchange Commission watching.

Uh, insiders to see if they're buying and selling. Let's say Tesla stock. Uh, right before earnings. Uh, and and then if they're not buying, if they're you know, doing that, they might be subject to Insider or trading investigations.

But if they're doing it through an ETF maybe those disclosures aren't necessary because they're not actually buying or selling any kind of Tesla shares. So they can just go YOLO call options on an ETF. Let's say that has a lot of exposure to Tesla before earnings have really play earnings with Insider information. Uh, the Bloomberg piece talked about they're potentially being a weird set of about 200 million dollars of moves per year in ETFs before mergers and Acquisitions and earnings especially in healthcare.

and Tech interesting, but see, that is the kind of you know frustrating thing about uh, untransparent markets, right? People are like, ah, we don't like Shadow markets we don't We don't like to feel like people are making bets without being able to know that they could be making Insider moves right I Think the same sort of reason is why we have very transparent Insider stock sales and buys at companies and those are required uh and I Think that's probably the same reason why you probably ultimately want to end up having that happen with the uh uh with with sort of sports and and ref calls as well. I Think that transparency would be good? Uh, I'm a big fan of that, but uh, who who knows? You know Again, on one side, you're going to have people going hey, look, who cares? uh yeah, the Chiefs would have won anyway, right? uh and on the other side I think people who just lost a lot of money around. Man, it's rigged so there's obviously going to be a massive bias on each side, but who knows. But that's my take on the Super Bowl I Really enjoyed it I hope you did as well.

It was great. So um, anyway, all right. so moving on. we've got a lot to talk about.

I think uh. Next, we ought to talk a little bit about Tesla and then after we talk a little bit about Tesla, we'll talk a little bit about the market. and we've got a lot of catalysts actually coming up as well. Actually, you know what we should do.

Catalysts First I Think a lot of you folks are curious about the Catalyst coming up. Uh, join Congress Insider rules don't apply. Ouch. Uh, only one bad call that's pretty good for the NFL Ah, People are calling out two whole calls from the NFL during the last Uh game and there were two where it was kind of like ah, come on man, that was the whole thing.

but you know, whatever. whatever. So uh anyway. Uh, so let's go let's do Catalyst quickly and then after we do some Catalyst we'll jump into uh Tesla and some of the other news that we've got going on.

But uh, obviously this is going to be a week of catalysts, right? So we may as well look at the latest estimates and get those going. But I'm glad you all. It seems it seems like you all enjoyed the game. All right, and here we go.

Now we gotta talk Catalysts for the week because we've got a lot of them. Not only do we have CPI to talk about and some of the momentum revisions uh, but we've got to talk earnings as well. and since today is Monday well guess who reports on Monday It's Monday.com Monday.com reported. Uh, they beat.

They're up about 10 in the free market, but we'll see if that actually lasts throughout the day. But what was interesting was if you bet on cyber security last week, you could have pulled off an easy trade. And these are the kind of Trades that we want to, you know, start working pretty regularly with our course members. But last week, you could have pulled an easy trade.

Fortinet came out with smashing earnings. And then that led to Cloudflare's bead. In our opinion, I Mean it was. It was not necessarily one led to the other, but it was clearly a signal that cyber security plays were still being bet on.

uh for uh, wins. And they ended up coming out with wins. And so what did we have here? Software service companies again beating Monday.com I'm coming in with fourth Quarter revenue of 149.9 Street was looking for 14. One, their forecast smashed 2023 Revenue was expected to be 660..

they're looking at closer to a midpoint of 690. That's about eight nine percent of a beat. Uh, for the year, That's fantastic. If they could pull it off, they only lost about six cents a share.

They were expected to lose 42 cents per share. So uh, a less money losing company or smaller money losing companies. So great job! Monday.com could actually be good for software companies coming up. Uh, that still have to report whether that's trade tasks although they're an advertising.

We'll see whether that's Salesforce we'll see TBD Uh, obviously. Uh, we've got uh CPI tomorrow. Let's quickly just catch up on CPI And let's hit some of the other catalysts for the week because we've got a few catalysts coming up. So of course, there's this potential issue with the CPI report that because of the revisions to CPI weightings, we actually expect that CPI ending did in 2020 to higher than than we were originally told.

That's not so much of an issue because it's not like we're going back and changing that data based on these new weightings. although there are always revisions. uh, which would be surprised to see some of that. Uh, the the big thing is now we're dealing with higher weightings for housing and that's going to end up being really good.

But probably not until towards the end of this year where we actually really start seeing those owner equivalent rents and housing as services start coming down. That's like lodging and rent, right? We really want to see that anchor. When we get to that anchor, it's going to be great. It's going to be fantastic to have housing have a higher weight, but unfortunately in the interim it's going to be bad to have housing have a greater weight because we haven't actually seen those declines yet.

So you do have this this momentum of basically housing being a lot stronger going into 2023. That could lead to a bad CPI tomorrow. And there's a reason why investors are loading up basically on contracts to protect themselves. For example, contracts against a 10 percent decline on the S P 500, a 10 percent decline, folks are now 1.7 times more common than options that would benefit from a 10 rally.

This is a 10 spy put call ratio here. Uh, on on 10 gains or losses and that ratio is sitting at 1.7 times that SKU is sitting at the highest level of SKU against the Spy the S P 500 since August of 2022.. Now keep in mind for some of you who don't know if when I say spy Spy is an ETF that you could use to trade. Uh, the S P 500 in you can't actually trade directly in indexes or indices.

you could trade directly in ETFs which basically try to mirror the index. Small clarification there. But anyway, spy is one of those. so that's just one that I tend to regularly talk about here.

Uh, anyway. so uh, there's a lot of hedging that's coming out because of this. CPI read: obviously. Uh, the CPI read is expected to be 0.5 month over month.

Headline Point: Four percent Core: That Core is an issue because even if we meet, you're still looking at 4.8 percent on Core. That means outside of food and gas, you're still looking at 4.8 annualized inflation. Yes, that's lower than the 6.2 percent we expect for headline. but still, it's It's quite a chunk.

You know. a couple days ago, we were sitting at point three percent for core month over month. That was revised again to 0.4 Last month we came in at point three and that was revised up to 0.4 already. So uh, in my opinion, you've got.

You've got a potential for some negativity here. But the issue with making bets on CPI is a lot of Traders already have priced bearish bets in, uh, pretty well. So there's actually this belief that hey, look, if we get a Miss on CPI it's already built in like you're not going to make much money on your puts. That's the theory.

unless things really go bad. Uh, so things would actually have to probably miss substantially to the upside rather than just me. So I think a meat, you're probably looking at stability in the market. Uh, if and if you get a slight beat, you're kind of I feel like almost gonna get the eye roll.

So if you get like a point one percent beat, you get sort of the eye roll from the market where yes, the S P and the NASDAQ are going to drop one or two percent. You know you're gonna see that right away. But I wouldn't be surprised that mostly you kind of have an eye roll from the markets because markets have kind of already been trying to price in a lot of that uh, that pain so to speak for Uh CPI We'll see. Obviously, we will see.

we don't have that for sure answer yet, but it's something to pay attention to and we'll see it tomorrow at 5 30 a.m that's in about 24 hours from now. Uh and uh, you know, hey, I'll be covering it live. so hopefully you're here with me when those numbers come out now. The other thing to keep in mind is if we do break to the downside, even by Uh 0.1 percent, it's probably going to be even easier to go green on markets because so many bearish bets would have to basically get covered.

Uh and uh, that's uh, that would be nice to see. All right. So here's the JP Morgan Uh, expectation on a CPI and what the FED might do I think it's quite interesting. Look at this.

So this is and this is the next two CPI reads the the JP Morgan's going ahead to the next two CPI reads and what you end up having here. Look at this folks, they're bull case scenario is that no, we're not going to come out with a 6.2 CPI read. but we're actually going to come out with a five seven. In the uh, the uh bull case scenario, this is like smoke and hopium right here.

This is ridiculous. They would expect the FED to immediately pause uh for March So a March 22nd pause if inflation comes in this low to 5.7 This is nutty. Okay, the expectation is six two boy, if we could get headline in at five at Five seven, uh, moon. But but I I don't know I mean this.

This seems like it would be ridiculous and it also depends what the month over month numbers are doing, but that seems like it'd be crazy. They would expect the 10-year yield to then end at 3.3 percent at the end of February at the end of the first quarter, 3.25 uh, and uh. And then they they look at the yield curve ending uh, actually uninverted by the end of the year uh and then potentially the Dixie falling with some more BuyBacks Their base case Scenario: So this is JP Morgan's estimate of what's actually going to happen. Are you ready for this base case scenario: 5.9 The estimate right now from Wall Street is 6'2 Their base case is five nine, Uh.

and so as a result, they expect to get one more 25 BP hike and then a pause in this base case scenario. and then in the next report, they're expecting a 5.6 in their base. In their bull case scenario, they're five seven in tomorrow's report and then a 5-0 I mean this. This is a pretty pretty interesting one.

Now here's their bear case. Oh man. So their bear case is that instead of getting 6.2 we get 6.3 Okay, their worst case scenario is just a 0.1 percent height. uh, or or beat on CPI.

Now what's interesting about that is they bring you in at uh, a four percent 10-year treasury that's not going to be good for Real Estate Uh, after the month, potentially 4.3 That's back to like the October November highs when we had like 7.3 interest rates in real estate. so it'd be terrible. Uh, 4.3 by the end of the first quarter. So you really, if if you want to see real estate bottom out here, you really want, do not want the bear case to play out tomorrow Tomorrow, You really want the bull case to play up.

Now, what odds are they giving this? So on the bull case, let's see here. What do they say? While we're considering just the near-term setup, it's worth noting that there have only been four periods where the Spy has printed negatively consecutively in consecutive years. Okay, only four periods where the S S P 500 has been negative for two years in a row is basically what they're saying: The depression World War II the 70s and the tech bubble of the early 2000s. Major drivers of the bull case include: CPI continuing to fall earnings beating expectations Top Line Growth Great.

Fantastic. Now they do have this bear case. Uh, and this comes out to economic deterioration, feeding earnings and then of course Global liquidity less cash to actually do BuyBacks less cash to invest? Uh, interesting. Okay, so so that's sort of Jpm's take I you know usually I like looking at JPM steak I don't know why but I feel like this is a little bit um, a little hopio me dare I say I don't know, that's it seems a little uh, well, well optimistic.

Let's put it that way. uh, they do throw in here housing prices uh on chart here you can clearly see we're well off the peak that we saw somewhere around May uh April May of 2022 well-off national median home price a well down from about 420 to about 380.. So seeing that sort of nice decline JPM Pointing that out here, you do have that used vehicle index popping off again. one of the reasons, by the way you're seeing that is is really is substantial decline in the amount of Supply that we have for vehicles.

So you're still facing supply chain crunches essentially uh in vehicles. So so that's CPI you do tomorrow. Also end up getting Coca-Cola reporting you get Marriott reporting Airbnb and upstart Reporting Now uh uh, you know some potential issues there with Airbnb uh Airbn somebody wrote and I thought this piece was really actually quite fascinating. but with Airbnb there was a uh Business Insider piece that reported on a manager of 95 Phoenix area Airbnbs stunned that half of their homes are empty over Super Bowl weekend.

Now the price they were asking was absolutely nutty. uh, in my opinion. But they said they cut their asking price for a night for the Super Bowl from twelve hundred dollars for the night to 500 I'm like my God twelve hundred dollars for an Airbnb in Phoenix that seems nutty and they cut their price to 500 dollars apparently still half of them unavailable or unfilled. I should say not unavailable.

they're available, half of them were unfilled and they're suggesting here some U.S spots are experiencing a glut of short-term rentals that can hurt hosts booking calendars. It's actually a massive concern that I have with Airbnb earnings coming up. I Personally think we're walking into an Airbnb bubble. A vacation rental bubble.

That's mostly because I believe that a lot of people who bought Airbnbs to rent them out and and hear this one out because I I think it's very reasonable. Okay, I'm a big fan of the real estate industry and I love real estate I've got a housing startup at Househack.com so my take is you have a lot of people in the Bull Run who are like oh I can't lose money on real estate. kind of like 2008, right? And so what they do is they buy a property at at insane prices and they look at it and go Okay well if I wanted to rent this out long term I'd get 2 800 bucks in rent for this. say I don't know five hundred thousand dollar property? Uh but if I rented out on Airbnb I'm gonna get eight grand and my mortgage is gonna be five grand.

Let's say so I'm gonna put little money down and my mortgage is gonna be five grand. So they look at it from a Airbnb point of view and they're like I'm a cash flow. three grand. Let's go baby.

You know, after fees or whatever let's say, uh and I'm gonna manage myself. it's gonna be my side hustle. I'm gonna make all this money on Airbnb and and so, but the long-term rent is actually two thousand two hundred dollars less than what their total payments are. So in other words, they're They're massively overpaying for the property because of the idea that they could Airbnb it out and make this crazy return.

Well the problem is, you're seeing that hotels after sort of this cover disaster have gotten so competitive that I mean you're almost stupid not to go into a hotel because the hotels are so much freaking cheaper in many different areas right now. and you could get a sweet sweet so to speak in many hotels for the price of of an Airbnb Uh, and then in the good hotels, you actually have a restaurant in them. You got a bar. I Love hotels with a bar.

Gotta love it when the alcohol is right there. Okay anyway, um so you you've got some awesome things with hotels and hotels have really gotten hurt during the pandemic and so they've been cutting prices and becoming very, very efficient. So now you have service and you have on-site amenities. Uh, you know, maybe that's a larger pool or a pool at all? Uh, you've got maybe that more consistent service because you've got folks over at Airbnb sometimes.

Uh, finding that the service isn't necessarily as consistent. And so I think because of this, you're potentially setting up what I think is a situation where a lot of people are realizing crap: I'll just go in a hotel rather than stay in an Airbnb. And what you end up with is the situation where all of a sudden people are renting out their airbnbs for what they thought they were going to get. Now they're like, well, maybe I'll just rent it long term.

dang. But if I rent it long term I'm upside down. maybe I should just sell it and take the L Now worst case that they put little money down, they can't even sell it because they're upside down now. They just lose a ton of money and eventually they probably end up selling it anyway.

So I think you're probably there's there's a good chance you're going to end up seeing sort of a glut of inventory come on the market of people who need to sell out of their homes because they just can't sell on Airbnb anymore. And I actually think it bodes terribly for the Airbnb earnings. I Don't know if we'll see that manifest yet in the earnings that that come out tomorrow? Uh, but but let's just say uh, Vacasa gave me the biggest red flags. You know this was the last earnings call or earnings report from Bakasa and they're basically talking about how many difficulties they were having.

uh, in the third quarter going into the fourth quarter, and basically this fear that all of a sudden, uh, they're they're just not making the money. They were getting too much variability in bookings, too much recent softness in bookings, uncertain macro environment, meaningfully reducing the capital we're allocating to our Acquisitions model Because basically the numbers don't make sense anymore and it's become harder to actually, uh, get properties rented out on Airbnb So I think you could potentially run into a big Airbnb bubble. Uh, and I don't know that with certainty, but let's just say I'm I'm bearish on Tuesday's Airbnb report. Uh, you've got upstart reports as well.

On Tuesday Wednesday we get retail spending a December decline with somewhere around 1.1 percent biggest drop. Uh, for that we've seen in quite a while, The estimate now is actually 1.9 growth excluding Autos point, eight percent growth, autos and gas points seven percent growth. And going back to him for a moment, back to a CPI or for to Airbnb It's possible that you really had like a soft December and maybe the numbers start coming out better in January Who knows? Maybe that's a little bit more of the Goldilocks Theory but uh, who knows? Who knows. Uh.

Anyway, hotels also have great amenities those instant Graphics Exactly. Yeah. So uh, then you've got Roblox Trade Desk Craft Generac Shopify Roku and Cisco all reporting Wednesday A You've got UK Inflation reporting Wednesday Which comes the day after our inflation read in: December Their inflation was 10.5 percent. That's down from 10.7 percent.

Uh, in the month prior in November Empire manufacturing comes out Wednesday We're looking at negative 18 versus a 32.9 prior. January Industrial production is expected to come out. Uh, we are looking at up 0.5 percent. That's versus the decline of 0.7 that we experienced in December.

On Thursday we'll get PPI the producer price index I Wouldn't be surprised if if the CPI comes in low and the PPI comes in high. Wouldn't surprise me because I think producers are feeling higher prices than consumers are going to continue to be able to support. I think consumers are sort of refusing to continue to pay in certain cases here. So we're looking at a PPI expectation at the moment of point.

four percent month over month. last month was negative 0.5 and then X Food and energy. We're looking at Uh 0.3 Last was 0.01 year over year, coming down to 5.4 on PPI expected. So we'll see building permits expected.

Uh for Uh Thursday to be 13.50 The last report no joke was 1337 on the revision. Uh, that's 1.337 a million building permits, housing starts expected to decline month over month, negative point or negative 2.01 and building permits expected to be actually up potentially one percent. So so we'll see you do get some more SAS businesses here like uh, Data Dog, you'll get a DraftKings and then you get some others like Hasbro Dropbox and Redfin on Thursday. Personally, I'm bearish on anything real estate related.

so Redfin sorry I'm I'm not very optimistic when volumes go down in a real estate, uh, recession. Uh, you know real estate agents leave the biz. so um, ah, cheers to Coffee. Not very optimistic so uh, those are some of the biggest catalysts we're looking at personally for this next week.

Uh, you know I'm I'm gonna I'm gonna run some numbers and and look into what the expectations are a little bit more closely for Airbnb with course members and our course member live soon. but uh, we'll see Cuban friends and say Airbnb is going bananas you're saying same. same in Cuba Uh, let's see. We went on vacation last month to Costa Rica to talk to a local who said Airbnb is booming.

There people will make 300 a month. Can now make 300 a week by switching to Airbnb Nice! Uh, that's why Uncle Jesse says same in Cuba Man that reminds me of Full House I used to love Full House Uh, Cuban friend says it's going bananas Well those are some very good anecdotes. I Have to say that's pretty good. So we'll have to look into potentially those International expansions.

although how much is international expected to be as a percentage of revenue for Airbnb I Don't know. and who knows, maybe maybe Q4 is a trough for them or they ended up Surviving I Have no idea. Uh, we'll see. Yeah, we'll also be talking about shorting Builder stocks potentially so we'll have a lot to talk about.

and of course member lives over the next week here so that'll be fun. Uh, anyway, those are those are the big catalysts that we want to pay attention to for uh for this week obviously. I I'm excited to see you tomorrow for CPA I mean CPI All right? So uh, that's uh, that's that. Let's uh, do a quick check of the markets and then see what else we've got to cover.

We got quite a few things actually. So looking at the markets, we actually went green on Futures That's actually incredible I was expecting I mean Futures were down like half a percent yesterday. You just, you almost can't trust the Futures anymore. I I still prefer to look at Bitcoin uh, although Bitcoins not actually doing so great.

So maybe that's not the best comparison to Futures Right now, we'll see how the Market opens. but Bitcoin sitting down about, uh, the two-thirds of a percent here, probably under the weight of a lot of the SEC investigations into uh BTC, uh, well, not BTC specifically, but into uh, staking? uh, in potential lawsuits that we're now seeing uh, regarding Kraken and some of the other companies. so you you know, obviously Coin? um, uh, what is it? uh, uh. Ticker coin? Why can't I think of the name of the company? My gosh, Coinbase of course.

Geez, that is such a weird mind. uh, of a slip there. uh, coinbase. Uh, and and uh, the CEO Brian Armstrong coming out.

you know, making the strong argument or trying to at least that uh, staking is not a security and I find it very interesting because he's specifically saying staking is not a security. kind of leaving the door for the SEC open to suggest that. well, maybe Ethereum or Bitcoin or Securities which obviously crypto enthusiasts would would argue. Uh, but uh, honing in on this idea that, uh, just just leave staking alone.

leave staking alone. Coinbase of course, got, uh, screwed on being able to, uh, provide, uh, lending? uh, and sort of staking. uh, stake yield farming? Uh, that ended up I Think saving them though pretty? uh, pretty gnarly. uh, pretty gnarly save over the last couple years given the implosions we've seen in companies that were enabling staking and the burns that we've seen at for example, sample Gemini Earn.

So maybe Coinbase had a little bit of an SEC save there ironically from not being able to conduct those sort of lending operations like other companies. Apple's pushing into financial services, but apparently hitting some delays for their buy now, Pay Later service I Almost wonder if that's sort of like by Design I don't I Honestly don't think getting into buying that pay later right now is the perfect thing. Uh, regularly. obviously.

I've been a big fan of stay Away from buy now, Pay Later stuff going into a recession. Lowest quality debt you could expect so uh, you know, not not a surprise to see some of the pain there. uh Facebook up a little bit on announcing some more Cuts They've been talking about cutting a lot, especially since they spend so much money on R D for the uh, metaverse and uh, and their reality headsets. The announcement of layoffs comes at the same time as a lot of companies are trying to double down on on the idea of artificial intelligence chat.

Bots Obviously Google got destroyed losing a substantial set of Market cap after their uh flub on their chat uh bot I Also think it's remarkable though, that a company like Goog could move down uh, so terribly. I Mean we're talking about from February 2nd down about almost 13 percent. Uh, and this is uh, this is you know, 1.2 billion dollar company. So 13 you're talking about over 150 million dollars just evaporating because of a flub on uh, on on a chat bot.

uh and uh AI related to that. Now obviously it should do better, but let's be real. I mean the amount of investment when you invest into a company like Microsoft or or Google that's going into the chat Services is nominal. uh for every 100 bucks you put into for example, Microsoft stock you're throwing 50 cents into chat GPT uh via Fair investment.

Now you could make the argument that well, the value will grow. You know, soon, my hundred dollars uh into Microsoft will see that 50 cents turn into maybe two dollars and it's great. Yeah, sure that'll certainly be a little bit of wind at your back, but uh I don't know am I am I jumping up and down about the idea of of investing it directly into Microsoft uh for the chat Bots No, not really. not really at all.

but that's uh, that's just my take on the markets there. So uh, another thing we should do is talk at a Tesla uh so let's do that. uh next. All right.

Tesla Wow. Okay, we gotta talk Tesla because Morgan Stanley just came out with a piece on Tesla and it was actually surprisingly bullish. Dare I say usually? Morgan Stanley seems to be the master of bears. Uh, especially if you start listening to that.

Mike Wilson Bear Boy He is a mega mega mega bear. You just can't get through anything, but he's more of a larger macro bear. And this we got to talk about Tesla. So before we talk about the Morgan Stanley piece on Tesla, it's just worth noting that Hertz has officially taken delivery of roughly 50 of the 100 000 Teslas that they ordered on hand at the end of the last quarter and their Q4 earnings call.

Uh, and Report they reported that they had 48 344 Teslas on hand. Remember that Hertz as a rental car company likes Teslas not only because people when they go to a destination want the potential of being able to rent a Tesla, but also they have a lot large portion of it or a large portion of their Tesla is dedicated to Uber drivers. And so really, what they're trying to do, especially during a period of potentially higher gas prices, is going to Uber drivers and essentially being able to say hey, look, why don't you just rent a Tesla from us who's a supercharger network but rent a Tesla from us and use that to make your Uber drives. And a lot of people who get into Tesla Ubers are actually so excited about the idea of being in a Tesla Uber that at least anecdotally, when I get into a Tesla Uber and I talk to the Uber drivers.

They they talk about one of the most beautiful things about having a Tesla is everybody thinks they own the Tesla and then they tip more So people are getting larger tips renting Teslas from her Hertz because people like this is so cool I get to experience a Tesla uh in an Uber thank you for having bought this this uh about or lease this Uber to provide it for me as as a taxi at meanwhile they're just renting it from her. It's honestly kind of brilliant and then they're getting more. So it's like it's win-win-win right? It's wind from the for the Uber customer, it's win For the Uber driver, it's win for Hertz and it's a win for Tesla. Now what's phenomenal is Hertz ordered a hundred thousand Tesla so you still technically have another 50k to deliver.

So TBD what's going on with the other 50k? Whether it's you know production or what, or deliveries, or or maybe there was some kind of price renegotiation? Uh, given some of the recent price drops and maybe Tesla's pissed, you know I'm just making this part up right? In theory, it is like if I were hurts I'd be like yo. Y'all just lowered your prices. You know we want to take advantage of those little prices. although Hertz did announce their original buys uh, before some of the price hikes.

But it would be very interesting to compare what Hertz agreed to pay for the cars versus what they are now. And who knows, maybe there's some disparity there. There's also some news regarding full self-driving Beta 11, essentially just that it's taking a little longer to launch. Uh, in that Elon Musk suggests it's taking it's it's basically harder than expected.

uh, and uh, to get it out. And now saying there might be a limited Beta release for full self-driving 11 next week. But you know, Elon Musk's uh, next week tends to be next month, so buckle up. But what is interesting is the Morgan Stanley piece on Tesla So let's pull up.

That is right here. So Morgan Stanley here has their headline listed as Tesla Over Two hundred dollars. Too much too soon. Five key thoughts.

So uh, we'll also look at their price Target and how they arrive at their price Target in just a moment. But they start off by talking about how over the last 27 days, Tesla has accumulated, uh, somewhere around a trading volume of 804 billion dollars. By comparison, the 27 days leading up to the end of the calendar of 2022 Tesla had only accumulated around 525 billion dollars on trading volume. Now what's interesting about that is I I think you had a lot of dumping of Tesla stock at the end for tax loss harvesting purposes at the end of 2022.

I'm not exactly sure if Morgan Stanley has made an adjustment uh, here for that, so we'll see on uh sentiment. So in other words, they're basically trying to say look, we think it's relatively overbought at the moment. That's basically what they're trying to say, which I mean if you just look at some of the simple technicals like the RSI relative strength index, you'll see that as well on sentiment. They suggest that at Morgan Stanley and this is sort of like I feel like Insider information but it's fascinating.

Uh, on the inside. Morgan Stanley suggests that more of their customers are all of a sudden calling to invest money into Lear which manufactures corporate Jets I Actually think uh, these smaller corporate chat companies have phenomenal pricing power just because of the Aerospace shortages that exist. uh, Embryere being another one. If you want a Brazilian a company that's ERJ I have exposure to that personally and I don't to Lear So In Fairness I Just want to be transparent about that.

A hog is the uh Harley-Davidson uh motorcycle stock obviously here. uh, and uh, and Morgan Stanley is suggesting they're receiving more calls to invest in Lear and Harley Davidson than they are over Tesla And they call this highly unusual. and so they suggest that. maybe maybe there's some resistance that's sort of lining up with sentiment and the technical saying hey, you know, short-term Tesla maybe less interest although who knows, you know I think uh, if you go back six months ago and and you told somebody hey, you could buy Tesla for uh, you know, 200 bucks a share I think people would have loved that the opportunity.

Yeah at that I think uh, well then again, May June we were sitting around 2 15. Uh, but we were sitting around 300 for a while there in July and uh, and October So I guess it depends on which part of the last six months you're looking at. Uh, anyway. so then you have a valuation talk.

Oh competition talk. let's hit competition. First, they say Morgan Stanley Here that we continue to believe that Tesla will short-term invest their margin into lowering prices. Now I Think that's a really interesting argument.

The way they phrase that, investing their margin into lower prices. That's fascinating because we know that Tesla's thinking they're probably going to get down to about 20 margin gross vehicle margin. They've already warned us about that. and uh, and you know right now, they're sitting around like 25.8 percent gross margin.

So we're expecting to see a hit there on gross margin as they cut prices and they go through a full quarter of price realization through q1. Q2 Uh, that'd be two full quarters. But anyway, so uh, we expect those margins to come down at Tesla but Morgan Stanley is actually suggesting Tesla making or cutting their prices. Is them investing their margin into market share? Now this is something that we believe as well.

We agree. We think them pushing their prices down uh makes everyone in the industry lower their prices. which basically means forward and likely GM are going to lose more money per vehicle they manufacture in electric vehicles. Rivian and Lucid will go deeper into losses and potentially go bankrupt.

And you'll see companies that are barely profitable on electric vehicles like Byd potentially go negative now who knows, but something to pay attention to. and I love the framing. Maybe I just love it because obviously I'm bullish on Tesla but uh, maybe I love that framing because I'm biased. But to be clear, but uh, it's a fascinating way to think about a a lowering margin that you're just investing that in the short term, your margin, taking that loss on margin or lower margin, investing it into more market share then you get the benefit of network effects, the potentially more market share in the future, and squeezing out your competition and then longer term.

Morgan Stanley Says we expect Tesla will invest their their addition margin into innovating to grow their margin even more as first they drive consolidation amongst the EVS in other words, forcing bankruptcies or people getting people out of the industry. Uh, and then once they're more dominant, they they profit even more. It's kind of like a 4D chess move and I ship it. uh or in an EV video do you say you drive it? That doesn't sound as good anyway.

Uh, we'll talk about their evaluation in just a moment. Catalyst they list here Master Plan Three expected to re be unveiled March 1st, we're excited to see project or progress on the manufacturing side, including the Giga press front and rear, the 4680 battery pack, structural pack, and other Innovations including supply chain Upstream material sourcing and Mining notice that they don't mention anything about the next uh platform uh, for or for uh Tesla vehicles which I think is really just going to be an innovation for margin. Some people are speculating that oh, there's going to be a new Tesla that it gets announced I I don't think so I think that's highly unlikely and people are setting up to be disappointed which could potentially create this buy the rumor, sell the news trading opportunity but Morgan Stanley remains overweight on Tesla and the reason they do is they have a price Target here of a 220 a four Tesla now if you're asking to when it's today, so their today's price Target is 220. that's because they're discounting their 20 30 Expectations by nine percent.

So basically, if you invest today at exactly 220, they believe you would see a nine percent return year over year over year over year over year going to 2030.. I'm just sort of re-engineering the math to explain it a little bit more simply than starting to get into whack a weighted average cost of capital and and uh, just kind of cash flows. I I don't I personally do my valuations a little differently uh I I come up with evaluation and then I look and say okay, what is that going to return Me It compounded annually for the next, you know X years through my valuation and the reason I like to do that is because that's a lot easier to come up with than a discounted cash flow statement. Don't get me wrong, I could do this kind of cash flow all day long.

but the problem with DCF in my opinion is you end up screwing with too many variables and what I found is as soon as you start screwing with too many variables, you get confused and you don't even realize all of the adjustments you're making to those variables. I Think it's a lot easier to do it in a different way. the way that I like to do it, come up with my sort of evaluation and then I work backwards to see is that valuation what I'm willing to invest at. Long story short, I'm oversimplifying here and I know it.

But anyway, Morgan Stanley has a price target of 220 today and if you invested at 220 today going forward, they would see that would yield you about a nine percent return which, uh, per year. Now, Upside: Risks they see potentially increasing the full self-driving take rates I I Agree with this however, something that offsets more people buying: FSD is this potential that you end up getting uh, more people signing up for full self-driving using the monthly software service approach rather than uh, paying fifteen thousand dollars out of the gate. Now when you buy the vehicle, you could Finance the fifteen thousand dollars which is great and still end up getting your energy credits which again, that's fantastic. That would be great, but if you don't Finance it up front because you want that lower monthly payment and then you add it on later.

I Think people are going to go for the sign up for the full self-driving at 199 or 299 a month rather than depending on which level you get rather than paying 15 grand. So I think that's a risk to actually thinking that FSD is going to be very, very profitable in the short term. although Tesla is starting to incorporate some of the profit from FSD now that they've more widely released it uh, into their uh, their earnings models. Uh, when they report earnings.

Obviously some upsides could be. uh, really scaling the Cyber truck, uh, semi truck. And then they mentioned here, a multi-van Now I think multivan is a a market that Elon is absolutely excited about and they're absolutely going to get into I Don't think they are right now because I think the presses that you would need to put together these vehicles would be substantially larger than the presses they're creating. Now think about pressing like a cyber truck or sorry, a sprinter van versus a model 3, right? The Press you would need would probably have to be two to three times as large.

Uh, for a multi-van like a Mercedes Sprinter van. Now the reason they called it multivan is because it could be a passenger van or a cargo van. but that is the next. Frontier I Promise you, that is going to be one of the the hottest markets.

Uh, for Tesla If they could come out with a passenger slash cargo van after the pickup truck, that is going to be such a game changer. Now that's just a rumor right now. nobody actually knows if they ever actually will. We know that Elon Musk himself is a fan of the Mercedes Sprinter van as him.

Uh, but uh I don't think we're close to that yet, given just the manufacturing engineering that would be required to do so in a in a margin efficient manner. So I think we've we've got a little bit of a weight for that. Uh, certainly. I think this decade.

Uh, and and that could really create an entire entirely new S-curve for Tesla So that's pretty exciting. but that's a that's more of like icing on the cake. You don't want to buy Tesla stock because you think they're going to come out with a you know, like a Springer van or whatever. uh uh, a corset.

Creator here writes a Tesla Mom van. Oh yeah uh so that actually is something that is missing from Tesla's lineup is Tesla does not actually have a good mommy car now In Fairness Right now their Market is really 25 to 45 year old dudes at like a 70 to 80 market share for that market so they're not really trying to appeal to women. I Think that's a big mistake I Actually think they need to have a more Mommy functional van and they don't have that right now. The model X or Model Y are not great for mommy vans in my opinion unless you have like just one or two children.

as soon as you get more than two children. and even if you have two children, the trunk space is a big issue, especially if you got to put a stroller and groceries in it. There's just not enough room in these vehicles. and certainly if you're going to use the seven or six seat configuration, you have basically zero trunk.

It's like impossible to get a full family in. uh, the model X or Y. It's very, very tight, especially with car seats. It's just not functional now.

I Personally do think the model Y is the best vehicle that you could buy from Tesla So if you're going to buy a Tesla I think you, you should absolutely focus on the model. Why? The model Y was just actually increased 500 and the model 3 was reduced 500 right before the Super Bowl Uh, kickoff I Thought that was really interesting and it doesn't surprise me though. the margins are better for the model. Why? So that benefits Tesla But I Actually think that's a win for the consumer as well because the model wise, just you get so much more space for for, uh, not not that much more.

And on a change point of view: I Think you get plenty of opportunities on the model y I Think that's the best all-around vehicle, but again, it's not a mommy car. that's certainly not a cargo van. Risk's a downside here. per Morgan Stanley are a competition I Put an X there I Don't actually think there's too much competition.

Maybe though with the Chinese domestics I'll give them that. You know Byd is probably your biggest one, so we'll see. Mega Tech I don't think so Legacy I Don't think so. Uh.

Execution risk with multi multiple Factory ramps? Yeah, that becomes expensive. Then you've got uh China risks. Again, like a Byd? Yes. valuation.

Okay, yeah, maybe because you know they're they're looking at uh, only giving you a a 12 times multiple on Tesla on their ebitda in 2030. That really assumes that there's not going to be another growth curve that comes out for Tesla by 2030 And that's fine, right? You're assuming no massive take on FSD Robo taxis, robots. Uh, where you're really not building any of that in And that's fair. You probably do go down to a 12 times multiple by 23.

Uh, because because growth would slow down without some of these other inputs. So that's Morgan Stanley's model on Tesla I Have to say I think it's a very reasonable model here. and uh, and you know I think they're just a little nervous because Tesla has added 350 billion dollars of market cap just year to date and so you could see some downside here. Uh, in in the near term unless of course we get a really good positive.

CPI then baby. Tesla Moon Uh, someone here writes Max actually writes here a Toyota minivan is so good. Uh yeah, the Toyota Sienna is a phenomenal vehicle. I will give them that hands down.

Uh, we also happen to own a Toyota Sienna Uh, we we compared that to the Odyssey which was a close second. but I I don't know I think once we got into Sienna we were. we were. We were sold.

Uh, but it's kind of weird to say we bought the Sienna in 2015 when we had our first child. It's crazy to think it's been eight years since we bought that car. Lauren's starting to go. Oh Kevin my car's eight years old I'm like we're not buying a new car anyway.

Uh, all right. So uh, what do we got here? We have. uh, let's see here we are at 601. Let's do a quick check of L markets and we've got some more to talk about as well.

So quick look into the market and uh, we have Dow down 0.04 Tesla's down about 1.6 You've got bonds basically flat. Wow. the 10 years at 3.74 it's not good for Real Estate folks, oil's down about eight tenths of a percent S P 500 up about one tenth of a percent. uh NASDAQ up about a third of a percent I Expect today to be relatively mild as everybody tries to position for the uh CPI read tomorrow: minivans are underrated I Couldn't agree with you more.

Uh, you know I think they have that bad reputation of like the mommy car but look I you know I mean short of a sprinter van which I would prefer a sprinter van over the mommy van but a sprinter Van's like, you know that's it's not really like a mom event, right? You know, like Lauren's like Kevin I'm not taking a sprinter van to Trader Joe's right, like I'm not I'm not going around with a massive cargo van and I'm like, all right, all right I mean like fine, Uh, but anyway, uh yeah, I'm like how are we gonna get to Disney faster and she's like Kevin we'll fly there now and I'm like okay, uh, but anyway. uh so uh that. which is also very ridiculous because instead of being like a four hour drive, if we fly to Disneyland now it would be 18 minutes. but that's unfair.

But anyway, so uh yeah, no. minivans are freaking phenomenal I mean really, they don't deserve the bad rap that they get. They have a lot of room. We have an eight seat Sienna and even with all eight seats filled which you're still climbing over each other to get to the seats right.

But once you're in, you could still put a crapload of luggage in the back. so it's like our airport vehicle. uh of choice I mean it is freaking awesome Man it is awesome Sprinter van to Trader Joe's and you know I'm actually seeing uh more moms start taking Sprinter vans to drop their kids off at school at least uh uh, the school my kids go to and uh and I'm like this is cool. people are starting to catch on in America that Sprinter events are cool, high tops are where it's at exactly Oh with the big TV in the back you know when we went to Victorville shout out to the agents there you could actually search this on my channel, just type in YouTube meet Kevin Victorville or sunny Sunnyvale I don't know what what's it called I can never remember what the place was called but some area in in Victorville but anyway, the agents rented the Sprinter van that had uh, each row staged up another level and uh and then a giant TV with blackout curtains and I'm like I'm like in a movie theater here.

that was so cool Kyler says he's in a sprinter van right now I Love it I'm jealous I my favorite car ever like and people who look at Sprinter vans they bag on them. they're like oh well, that's going to be hard to drive. Nope, wrong, wrong. Those suckers are so easy to drive.

it's freaking phenomenal. They're so easy and they turn on a dime which again sounds ironic. but they ride nice and I like things that ride nice. Oh yeah, yeah.

okay now let's see I think they call them conversion bands? Yes they do. So let's now. uh when you have like the TVs and stuff like that? Yeah, so what else we got here? we talked about Metacont uh let's do. how about a little bit of a look into oh the Bears All right we got to give the Bears a little bit of a look and we got to talk about uh, the vibe session and no Landing oh gosh, all right.

uh, started here Now we gotta give some Credence to the Bears and of course every time I give the Bears some credit and show reports from the Bears like what we're going to talk about here. Whether it's Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley guess what position he's taking, he's a bear man. We're gonna go look at what Bloomberg economists are forecasting. We're going to look at some of their models, but look at Transitory Goldilocks and we'll look at the vibe session.

We'll have a lot to talk about, but I have to first disclaim any time I make a bearish video. there are losers that of course we're not going to mention by name. but there are these losers who like to take screenshots of my channel and they're like you get Kevin one day he's British one day he's bearish and it's like you're just another idiot who doesn't watch to the end of the video. So and honestly not even through the end of the video I mean I'm on.

Honestly, when I cover the bearish stuff I'm like look I'm covering this but obviously I'm a bull and here's my take on it right? Like it's like like I I don't know I think sometimes people are just like miserable in their own lives and they have to find a reason to hate on someone. It's like I think I've been pretty damn consistent about my my Nike Swoosh thesis right? I I Want to make that clear up front? Okay, you don't even have to make it to the end of the video I think I'm very clear uh that while we had that V-shaped recovery and by the dip was great in in the covet pandemic, this is so probably an elongated Nike Swoosh We're gonna have a lot of ups and downs and plenty of by the dip opportunities and no massive Panic rush to to be all in. Uh, you know I've been saying for a bit. You know I don't think 10 to 15 cash on the sidelines and no margin is is a bad idea.

Uh, you know. so those are my takes but I don't know