Welcome back to another meet. Kevin Report: We are now on Episode 93. Welcome back to another one We are going to cover today. Well, a few things we've got.

uh, obviously. uh, today. uh, we've got Nvidia earnings. That's going to be a big deal.

You've got uh, the Fomc minutes coming out today. Uh, a lot of people thinking the Fomc minutes are really going to tell us something new. Uh, as usual I Mean, we'll cover them, but uh, because you never know what's going to be inside. But I think the big thing that we want to pay attention to with with the FED is realizing hey, uh, yeah, we heard what Kashgari said.

Even Kashcari, who's not been a big fan of a pause is indicating he's going to be able to be convinced to see a pause. And that's pretty much because, as the FED has told us pretty clearly, hey, uh, let's see what inflation does over the next couple of reports. uh, the one we one of which we already got which was the April report and then of course we've got our next report coming out just the day before the next Fed meeting. So uh, we'll see what happens.

Yeah, but uh, we'll get those minutes. uh, probably. uh, let me see exactly what time those come out. I Want to say that's 11? A.M Uh, that those will come out, but I'll get the exact time.

And uh, then we've got obviously more of the debt ceiling drama. It seems to be getting closer yet further away in a really weird way. That is every day that goes by it seems like hey, we've got uh, just a little bit more progress but then oh no. We're also running out of time and still yet somehow need more time.

But then again, it's always worked out in the past so fingers crossed it keeps going and uh, we get these negotiations done. Uh and uh, this is Uber soon. So um, let's see here. Federal Reserve uh fomc minutes We'll go ahead and get find out the exact details of when those come out.

uh but yeah, we do get those uh today for the May 2nd to third meeting and uh, then of course I think really what most people are going to be paying attention to is NVIDIA we'll do a little bit of an Nvidia earnings preview in, uh, just a moment I think that'll be fascinating to go through. uh, some of Nvidia's advantages, but also some risk factors associated with Nvidia What about China what's going on with China and all the good stuff? I Want to take a brief listen just to hear to CNBC see what's going on live and uh, we'll Circle right into some of the content. So let's listen in here. Let's see, they got a healthier Bank willing to step up and to resolve that bank in the public markets before it gets to the deposit.

Insurance Fund That's not happening now because because of what happened in 2008 and the banks that got burned by taking on those deals, doing them really quickly and then having the government come back later and say, well, that's with government assistance I'm saying without government assistance because what's really in the last two and a half years, it takes twice as long to get a bank merger approved than it did previous to that? The Regulators are still rewriting merger rules that they haven't come out with yet. The risk premium that a buyer has to put into it about how long it would take to get their merger approved. Going into a choppy economy with a sick bank is the target. That's a very tall bar for any bank to to.

Chin So my view is that if there was more clarity on the rules on how Bank M A could happen, you could have a healthy Bank step in, resolve it with their shareholders money rather than needing the deposit. Insurance funds money. And and what One thing we've learned too. Even a surprise to me, you've got a guy here talking.

Let's have less regulation because then we can take over Banks faster. Yes, that's the solution to the banking crisis. less regulations industry pays for, not taxpayers, but the hits are bigger. I Think it'd be better to let a healthy Bank take it over beforehand rather than afterwards Thomas Thanks for coming in, thank you Thomas Michelle Thank you coming up that chair Jay Powell Vowing to be steadfast in the fight against inflation so should investors expect rates to say higher for longer? And how should you be adjusting your portfolio and take a look at features at this hour? Looking at a lower open here as investors are looking to DC for some guidance on debt ceiling negotiations.

Sap looking to lose about 15 at the open NASDAQ can be down by almost 50. in a stock to watch into it raising its price Target 485 from 462. that stock is lower by almost six percent right now. We'll be right back time now for today.

So uh also, I wanted to make you mention that, uh, we're gonna try this on, uh, on the channel soon. Uh, probably within the next couple of weeks here. We're going to start, uh, trying to do these. Uh, basically.

uh. Financial audits. Those have been a pretty popular demand. Uh, and so we're going to travel.

We're going to start with course members. We're going to travel to, uh, different areas around the country and uh, the cool thing is, we're going to do them in person so we'll be able to, uh, see people's situations in person as well as talk. Finance So I think that'll be pretty cool. A lot of people have been asking for, uh, my thoughts on this and so, uh, there it is.

Uh, then you've got uh, the Fomc minutes and they do come out at 11 A.M as I expected. Uh, they are for the May 2nd to May 3rd made a meeting and so those will be out at 11. Uh, tonight? Uh, at a three And as these times are Pacific at 3 P.M Pacific You'll also have Ron DeSantis who's expected to make his presidential announcement meant on Twitter spaces tonight. Now this is a pretty wild one.

So think about this: Ron DeSantis whom uh, Elon Musk has previously endorsed, but now no longer potentially endorses as Elon Musk says hey, I'm just not going to endorse any candidates in the cycle. Elon Musk is now indicating Ron DeSantis is going to come right onto a Twitter spaces and announce his presidential campaign on Twitter spaces. Now this is quite remarkable and it has a lot of people wondering. Is it because potentially Ron DeSantis wouldn't otherwise be able to get as big of an audience and maybe because of the Trump effect.

if Ron DeSantis didn't have a massive audience cheering him on, people would think he was somehow weaker than Donald Trump going into the campaign. Obviously, Trump fans are like ah duh, and the Santa's fans are like nah nah man. the crowd matter how, it doesn't matter. Uh, so I I Think this is fascinating because you have Elon Musk who has aligned himself, at least with his commentary more so with the center right.

Uh, or some would argue even further to the right. In fact, there are some on the left who just ultimately despise Elon Musk now because of his political commentary I've actually been blown away with with how extreme some of the commentary is. I Really try my best to stay away from from the negative Nelly nonsense of uh, uh, of, well, negative commentary and uh boy, one of the places you could really see the hate is when when you're on Twitter and Elon says something a response to Something There is a substantial community of really, hey, like big, big big haters uh, against Elon Musk And these are people. When you look at their profiles, they are very clearly uh, left.

they lean extremely well I think I don't make that a secret and they have gone from liking Elon Musk to absolutely despising him. So to some extent there is some political maybe eye rolling that's going to happen from the left of like, oh, of course, Elon's Twitter is going to be the platform that Ron DeSantis ends up uh, you know, announcing his candidacy on. so that's sort of an eye roller for those on the left. But for the others of either Center or on the right, others indicate hey, this is actually kind of cool.

This is first of all, unprecedented you've got Elon Musk Will basically be taking Twitter from this company that was widely unprofitable to cutting about 80 percent of the staff to getting the Uh app operating with 80 of the staff. I Mean, think about it. We, Other than the occasional potential outage, uh, and and if anything, those have been far and few between, we actually haven't really seen any kind of Twitter crash or failure. If anything, we've seen a lot more features come out over at Twitter Uh.

In the time that Elon Musk has been in control now, Elon Musk argues that's because they don't have the censorship police anymore and some people do I think fairly give some criticism to uh, the Uh. For example, the uh we recently we had a shooting at a mall in Texas uh, that was gosh, that was just north of Um Dallas I believe it was um, next to Plano what's that or was it in Plano I think it was right next to Plano Frisco I can't remember exactly where it was, but uh. anyway. uh yeah.

oh. Twitter algorithm was uh, you know, encouraging. Uh, pretty gory images. and so there are some criticisms over.

hey, maybe some of these should have at least had like a blur filter over them or like a you know, viewer discretionary warning or something. You know nobody wants to say the c word right. The censor word uh, but uh yeah, I mean Twitter's actually done phenomenally well. And Elon Musk Yesterday was actually in an interview with the A Wall Street Journal and he talked about, uh, this announcement coming so that'll be at 3 P.M today.

Uh, this will also be something where uh Elon Musk is is really able to show hey, how many people can you get into a Twitter spaces for an event like this. and every time Elon Musk is in a spaces, the amount of people in it is is usually in the neighborhood of 50 plus thousand. That was actually fascinating. About that is it could be quite strategic from somebody like Ron DeSantis because Ron DeSantis might not have the physical crowd that Donald Trump has which might be say you know 500 to a thousand people plus whatever kind of Internet viewing.

But if people are in a Twitter spaces and Elon Musk is in there and they're like wow, 50 000 people and I'm sure it could even be hundreds of thousands right people looking at wow, you know, 100 000 people listening to Ron Desantis's announcement. In an interesting way, it's it's sort of a perfect game plan from DeSantis where you're going to automatically get way more people there because Elon Musk is there And on top of that, it's a perfect test for Twitter to show how stable it is. Hopefully nothing goes wrong. Knock on wood? Uh.

But beyond that, you also have this argument that Elon Musk makes that hey, like look, you know advertisers are coming back, They're lifting their uncertainty warnings on advertising on Twitter and uh, maybe Twitter will end up being profitable this year and hopefully we could see more of that neutrality. Return to Twitter where you get uh, you know both the left and the right on Twitter Uh, we'll see now as far as I mean, that's not to say that the left isn't already represented on Twitter they're there, just maybe less so than the right. At least that's what it feels like. But Twitter by no means is like a rumble right or a true social.

Uh Elon Musk Did also talk about his Uh in the Wall Street Journal interview that he did. uh. He talked about his a long and complicated schedule of how he basically tries to dedicate a day to various different companies whether it's SpaceX Tesla Twitter I did think I Think it was interesting that he said that today was supposed to be a Tesla day, yet he spent one and a half hours on the Wall Street Journal interview and then he said he'd probably end the day over at Twitter. Uh, so uh.

and really, the he argues that a lot of the cuts that he made at Twitter were people who really didn't end up providing a lot of value to the company. Anyway, those cuts, by the way, have actually led to inspiring a lot of different uh firms to cut possessions and wonder. Wait a minute. Do we really need as much mid-level management? Do we need this many layers of hierarchy? So you're finding this broad sort of flattening of the corporate world? And this is leading some folks to say, Well, this is what the corporate recession looks like.

This is what the white collar recession is. Remember, we went into this recessionary time thinking, oh, inflation's high Poor people are gonna get screwed because the disproportionate of their disproportionate amount of their spending goes to things that are becoming more expensive: energy, gasoline, rent, and food. When you're broke, you could be spending 50 to 80 percent of your money on just the things that I just listed. when you have a lot of money.

and let's say maybe you're a white collar worker and sure, maybe you're living paycheck to paycheck as well because you're spending all your money. The pie that you're spending usually on food, energy, gasoline, and rent is maybe in the neighborhood of 20 to 40 percent. You're just spending more on discretionaries, entertainment, travel, whatever. And what's fascinating about this is that in this recession, we actually ended up seeing the poor cohort make a lot more money, even in real terms.

the lower lower levels uh, I've seen minimum wages rise above. uh, the rate of inflation In real terms if you average together all wages. We've seen slightly negative real wage growth and that's in my opinion, likely due to the fact that you've seen this sort of stagnation in White Collar jobs uh, and and pay races for white collar workers. And so you've seen this white collar recession where people who are uh, you know, Finance professionals or the medical field or whatever who make maybe more than a hundred thousand dollars a year or realizing crap asset values are down pay raises aren't coming in, bonuses aren't coming in the way they did.

Stock based comp isn't coming in the way it is unless of course your Zoom which all we'll have to talk about Zoom later because that's a crazy one. but uh boy, it's It really is a fascinating Twist of the sort sort of recessionary environment. and to some extent Elon Musk's Twitter flip-flop has inspired other companies like even Facebook to flatten their organizational structure and get more people actually providing value rather than just managing. This is one of the reasons that I've so widely argued that the best way to make sure that you don't get laid off and make sure that you make more money at your job is to make sure you're the employee providing the most possible value.

This is why I have a program on how to make more money and get done faster because I show you here's how you can provide more value. Here's how you can be productive with: AI We've got the AI lectures dropping on June 1st and then we'll have a big price increase again after that. all that information linked down below though. More importantly though, when we look at Elon Musk Elon Musk or you know continues to argue this need for an artificial intelligence business to rival Google and Microsoft uh, he's talked about really funding his own AI competitor to open AI or uh to Uh, which obviously is in partnership with Microsoft off the massive investment for Microsoft and then your Bard and Google uh competitor or a competitor for Barden Google The uh Elon Musk also hinted at a Tesla gigafactory in England to be announced by the end of the year.

Now this I thought was really remarkable I've always been a big fan of Elon Musk suggesting hey, let's just print more gigafactories. He's anti the idea of copy and paste, so I was wrong about the idea of just copy and paste them. He seems to be more of the mindset of each gigafactory should have its own purpose you know, maybe model 2 in Northeast Mexico as well as cheaper batteries, right? You get much cheaper labor in in Mexico three dollars and fifty cents per hour, which actually raises the standard of living in that area. But England came a little bit as a shocker for me.

Apparently they would make that decision in the coming months. He says quote: we're not currently looking at new locations, but we'll probably towards the end of the year. Asked about the prospect of establishing a site in the UK Musk said he would quote strongly consider England I'm not sure if that's because. uh, the Wall Street Journal CEO Council event that he was at was being held in London So part of me thinks there's no way in he double hockey sticks he's actually going to end up picking England Part of me thinks that was just a nice way to be like Oh I'm at an event where you know I mean he's not I mean you don't have to be physically there, right? You can be remote for this as well.

But the point is, if you're presenting to an event that's based out of London of course you kind of have to go. Yeah, Yeah, yeah, yeah, sure. We'd consider that Most people think it's probably more likely to be India or Indonesia something where labor costs are low. Remember, Even though in the future we hope the optimists will take over some of the labor costs, it's a long way out.

Like, if you're in manufacturing you've got a little bit of time before. Uh, you're getting replaced by a robot. Surprisingly physical. You know everybody always said oh, creatives and office workers would never get replaced by AI It's going to be the manual labor that'll get replaced first.

It was literally the complete opposite. Much like the recession hitting wealthier people more than poor people not not trying to take away from like the very very lower end that's get screwed by inflation. But much like that was the opposite. You kind of also have this opposite with Ai.

Ai is like destroying creatives and and human resources and legal jobs. You know, 10 times the weight that it is manual jobs because well, AI really isn't affecting meal jobs. I mean like if you're in construction right now, you should be like dude I'm set until I retire like I'm good. It's gonna be a long time before robot does my job.

So uh, but anyway. uh, you've got uh, a giga Germany producing 5 000 cars a week which is great. Uh, that one has made it a little tough. Uh, Elon Musk has.

um, well, that one's been a little tough to ramp. uh and and Elon suggests regulation in Germany and the European Union make it very difficult to conduct business there. Uh, so in my opinion, it'd be very difficult to imagine something in Europe. It'd be difficult to imagine something in the United Kingdom Uh, I would much more expect something in India Indonesia Asia whatever.

I've actually in a weird way been a fan of hey, just throw up another Factory in China Some people get mad at me for saying that they're like wait, everybody's trying to get away from China It's like that's fine I actually I like to invest in China China via American companies I don't like all these like bands on China and stuff I actually I think it's bad I'd rather American companies go figure out how to make money in China and then I Can you know take a piece of that growth in China by investing in those American companies that I could personally vet and believe in? Uh, you know when you start looking at financials of Chinese companies and and uh, you know, let's just say I uh, a trust the American ones a little more. anyway. So um, yeah, Elon Musk wants to be uh, the third horse in AI We talked about that. we talked about Ron DeSantis talked a little bit about that.

the Tesla location I Think the big announcement there is that we're probably getting another announcement uh, on on a gigafactory and then of course, it'll be fascinating to see how things go with Twitter later. Today, it's great as well that Elon Musk has selected another uh, a CEO to uh, essentially, uh, take over Twitter So hopefully the hope is that Elon Musk has more time for Tesla or other businesses. Though we'll see how much of that ends up being sort of a figurehead. Uh, Tom Zoo.

By the way, over at Tesla he uh, he got stock options of 339 000 shares that are going to invest equally one month at a time over the next 48 months. That is the equivalent of getting about 1.2 million dollars worth of shares every month. Four months, 1.2 mil a month. dude.

Uh, he's a senior VP of, uh, the automotive segment. Uh, pretty sure right now he's running Giga uh Texas the ramp over there. Uh, a lot of people see him as slated for potentially taking over Elon's role as CEO Uh, but uh, you know we'll see. So um, yeah, this gives you a little bit of an update here on what's going on with Elon and the DeSantis camp and Twitter and Tesla.

It's really remarkable, so we'll see. I I Will add one more thing. There was an ad supposedly that uh was posted on Twitter It was the uh Tesla Asia account that posted it. We don't know if it was actually an ad or if it was just sort of a consumer testimonial.

uh or or what. Uh, but uh. I'm just gonna put it this way: I'm not gonna play the whole thing. it's it's right here.

Uh. and while the graphics are awesome and everything about the graphics are cool I don't know that. uh I'm really excited about this and and if this is sort of the direction of ads that Tesla is going to go with I think they're missing the point. Uh, so they started out really great.

Like let me play this little clip here for you right now. So she talks about how she's a branch manager in the financial industry and this line that she says is great, but the problem is the example she gives to way too basic. Listen into this for a moment here. you know we'll play it.

Let's see: I Can't hear anything? Hold on silly Kevin You have to unmute the darn video for people to be able to hear it. Oh, two young kids, three and five years old. The technology attracted me. It looked different.

It felt different I would say in many small ways even though it may not be evident up front. but in fact, the day-to-day Drive is one of the smoothest and safest every day. I Have to drive quite long hours sometimes like it can get very tiring with the auto steer. I'm able to put my mind at ease.

It will warn me whenever I'm getting too close to other cars as well as keep myself in the lead. Okay, hold on a second. Warn you when you get too close to other cars. Basic.

Every freaking company has a car that does that stupid wrong. No, that's not what you should be pitching. That's basic. So basic.

Keep yourself in the lane. Come on man. a 10 year old cars do that. This is old news man.

They started so strong they started with the idea of this. Tesla has features that I didn't even realize existed. and I remember saying at the shareholder meeting I'm like, why don't you tell people that you improve the seat belt uh uh, attentioning systems or the airbag deployment systems over the air with over-the-air updates? Why don't you promote exactly how safe you are and the ratings of the safety? How your safety ratings compared to other vehicles? Or why don't we talk about uh, exactly some of the features of Auto Steer like, wait a minute. It's more than just Lane Keep or uh, keeping you from crashing into somebody else.

The thing's gonna turn for you on the highway. It'll change lanes for you. On the highway, it'll go to the faster Lane For you in the highway, it'll overtake other vehicles and then get out of the left lane for you. It will do everything for you.

It will get off the highway for you and that's not even full self driving. It will make it so that when you are in a foreign city, going on vacation or whatever and you're like oh my gosh, There are 50 different Highway off ramps here. How do I know which one to go on? We've all done it before. we get off the highway and then we're like okay, Is it left now and then right? Okay.

but which right Is it? because there are two ramps over there. Is it the first right or the second one? It's a disaster to navigate some of these places. You know what? I just do Now in the Tesla is I Just go screw it self-driving if I'm not already in self-driving I Just press the auto steer button and Boom. Guess what? It picks for me and it gets me off the highway because it's changing lanes for your life.

Those are the things they should be talking about. Where is that? Where's the other car making all those navigational decisions for you, right? So where is that in this ad? Test again I Don't know if this is an ad or if it's just like the you know testimonial or whatever here. but so far this is just like boring. This is a boring ad.

uh like yeah, they got they got visuals down. They got visuals down. But what they are saying is boring. So if Tesla if you're listening this, this is not unique boring.

Fix it. I think end of the day when we drive, it's about getting from point A to point B and in the safest manner possible. I've literally said that same quote I mean I know a lot of people said that, but look okay kids, kids, this is good. Let's let's see what they have to say about the kids of course because also I do have two young kids and I'm a mother myself.

The party of safety is at the top for me in terms of her kids. I Really enjoy bringing them out as a mother. of course driving, you can never expect what kids might do. That's where the child lock is absolutely very important.

You're talking about that child lock. Are you freaking kidding me? Every car has child lock. Who made this video? This is like so dumb. They're the cars from 20 years ago.

30 years ago had child lock. Well I don't know what the kid's gonna do I'm just gonna roll down the window or try to open the car in driving modes or whatever. Oh, we got. hold on everybody Revolutionary Tesla here.

Child lock Come on man. Talk about the cabin overheat protection. What did Elon say at the shareholder meeting? No child or dog has ever died inside of a Tesla when it was parked because of the cabin overheat protection, making sure that the temperatures inside the car never get to a deadly level. What other car manufacturer can say that? Oh wait, nobody.

because people leave their children and their animals in the car on hot summer days because they think oh and it'll just be a few minutes and then the line at the checkout takes longer and you come back to dead babies. And and it was terrible. but child lock oh my Lord There are really a lot of entertainment for them. the beach buggy game and it's very real.

Typically in Singapore the weather is really hot, the car can really be heated out. So what I like to do is I like to use my phone to switch on the aircon before I even go into my cup. Oh come on man, that was the opportunity. That was the opportunity right there to talk about the cabin overheat protection.

not about how you could turn the AC on dude a 2008 BMW that I drove once could do that. That was in 2008. It wasn't a big deal. like even when you're walking up to you, just press on the little remote like engine start or whatever remote engine started and then it pre-conditions the car for you like Ah that's old.

Oh, you were so close and the kid like turning the wheel. They were trying to show that the kid can actually steer the video game with the steering wheel, but that's not what they showed in the video. They showed a video game playing and then they showed the kid playing with the wheel. They didn't link the two.

You need the over the shoulder shot to link the two to indicate that when the kid is turning the wheel, he's actually playing the video game. Who shot this? I'm not an advertising company man, but this stuff is basic. Oh, come on. Tesla Yeah, so this is something that I never thought could have happened.

What one thing that I don't Really, You never thought you could pre-condition a car's temperature. You realize GM has done this forever. These are the features you're going to talk about. Enjoy About going to the Petrol kiosk is the fumes.

Nobody cares about the freaking fumes at the gas station. Nobody cares. Nobody freaking cares. Okay, yes, you go to the gas station.

your hands are nasty because you have to take the little pluggy thing and you plug it into you. You know you stick the gas nozzle into your car and it's nasty. You gotta hand sanitize. Okay, best trick is put some two dollar hand sanitizer in the side of your door.

But guess what? You got to touch the nasty supercharger thingy if you go to the supercharger station. So that's not nothing new, right? Okay, yes, Oh my gosh. Gas Fumes. You're there for like three minutes.

Okay, this is why people don't want to work at gas stations because they don't want cancer working at a gas station. but you're there for three to five minutes. It's not a big deal. nobody buys a car or does not buy a car because the fumes at the petrol kiosk.

This is stupid. This is where you guys are wasting your time on. Um I Think everyone knows how petrol smells. and it's not just about the smell, it's in fact some people like it.

Yeah here. Max says it. something like when we take off on the plane and we're uh, you know, turning the turning the engines over. uh and you smell some of that that kerosene start burning.

Some people are like oh I love this smell. I mean I I Don't really particularly prefer it, but anyway, harmful for our health. I Imagine a future without Fields Without smoke, we are able to all wind down our cars. We are able to breathe freely without all this.

Okay, Charlie just says here in the comments I think these might be region targeted ads? Are you trying to suggest that the people in Singapore don't deserve the real truth about how great tassels are? or like, come on, come on. like I don't care what region you're in I Really don't care what region you're in if the features of your Tesla or Lane keep assist alert you when you're going to crash into the car in front of you and child locks and no gasoline fumes. You have told me nothing I didn't already know You haven't informed me you've wasted my time. That's what you've done.

You've wasted my time and you've got an English speaker here I Hate to say it, but they're not exactly the most clear English speaker. That is a problem. That's fine if you even. maybe it doesn't seem like it's overdubbed right? but like chemicals that are out in the air.

I Would say it's one of the greatest gift that my kid can have in terms of their future. No, no, no, no, just know I Damn it. Tesla You know Tesla Exactly Tesla should fire their marketing team. Oh wait, they don't have one I Don't know who's doing this but like no, you know we're gonna reply to this right now.

Uh, we're gonna reply to it right now. We're gonna make this very clear: What are we gonna say if this is uh Tesla's versions uh version of advertising I'm out send boom I'm sorry, that's horrible Oh okay, I'm done I'm done with Tesla So that ends our segment on Tesla And if you haven't had the opportunity yet to check out the wonderful programs on building your wealth, link down below. especially that income Course on building your Income and maximizing your productivity with Artificial intelligence. With the AI lectures dropping in June 1st check out that link down below.

Make sure to subscribe. Keep in mind those AI lectures are going to be all about how we can actually use AI to be more productive rather than just use a list of tools. How can we actually use this in our daily routines? Thank you! All right, let's listen it over here. Constructive criticism would have been better in that reply.

What did I just do for 10 minutes Am I supposed to put a 10 minute reply into there? Here's what we do: Okay, okay, very simple copy link paste link around 22 ishman in for a 10 min explanation there there I Referenced the video. simple: Robert Dalia Are you not in the courses? because we pretty much every single day do course member breakdowns on earnings and and uh, um, uh, fundamental analysis on on the earnings calls and reports. Unless you mean like live at the closing stream because we do the you know, we do the open stream together. All right, let's listen to CNBC over here.

National Security has always been the basis by which authoritarian regimes have seized power, and you could quickly see the argument of National Security being the basis to shut down a business to be weaponized against Uh Twitter Or it could be weaponized against AI. Or it can be weaponized against Rumble or Parlor or any business that the administration doesn't like and sees a potential security threat to democracy. So that's the precedent that we're setting. and that's the chilling effect we have on Innovation as a result of this action from the state of Montana.

But my guess is that that's probably a bigger concern for your clients. The idea that let's say the national government does step in and say that this is a security concern, they absolutely have the power to do that. It's it's not a slam dunk on any sort of legal battle at that point. Then what? What do you do? Well, we've we've heard the argument of National Security concerns and ultimately comes down to the First Amendment.

Imagine if the government came in and decided to shut down access to your website or your app because of quote-unquote National Security concerns that is a clear violation of the First Amendment. Our Founders recognized this when they created the Bill of Rights and that's exactly what protects us. So if the government decided CNBC is a danger, which would be, of course, absurd, they couldn't just come in and shut down access to your website or your app. And that's what we're seeing out of Montana.

That's what we're seeing out of these discussions on Capitol Hill Is the government ultimately deciding for the American people, what websites they can visit and what apps they can download? And it's not just an impact on Tick Tock You saw an action from all the creators whose businesses rely exclusively on access to Tick Tock on the ability to have their voice being heard. So likewise, yeah, free speech is a is a huge argument for this. But are you saying that the government can never say that there's a national security issue or do they just need to back it up with proof? I Mean it's a really tough Hill to climb. So you saw this effort from President Trump when uh, he was in office trying to take down Tick Tock on National Security concerns went to the court and the court threw it out pretty darn quickly.

So it's a very very Steep Hill to climb because at the end of the day you have to. Define What is a national security concern and the way that the United States operates is we hold the First Amendment as sacrosanct the protection of free speech and challenge. Okay, this is getting exhausting. Why don't we talk about Nvidia I Really, they don't care what Montana does, Who lives in Montana Anyway, what is that? A territory Montana Population 1.1 million? Holy moly, That's nothing.

that's like one three hundredth of the country lives in Montana All right, uh, let's talk about something else instead. How about um, how about we get into video? Would be fun to talk about? Yeah, we should talk about a video. All right. So in order to talk about Nvidia we're going to start with other financiers, so let's send those over.

and uh, then we'll go through some research on Nvidia Uh, we do have earnings today, so prepare for that. We'll go through earnings expectations as well. Uh, and uh, we'll see uh what we think about their valuation and their potential on uh, earnings here. So earnings expectations coming out after the close for NVIDIA Boy, that's gonna be a good one I wonder if we almost have to live stream that one.

It's probably so good? I'm surprised though. Wow. The applied volatility is actually low. but then again, the entire Market's volatility is a little lower than uh, than you would otherwise assume.

So we'll go through this in just a sec. Let's get a few more of these uh earning stocks, huh? And then we can go through Nvidia I like Nvidia but I don't know. Evaluation seems a little a little stretched. Some people are calling it the new uh memes.

Doc? uh. eyeballs? Itchy? All right. Uh, you know, upgrades and downgrades I Could quite frankly care I Couldn't I could not care less about them because what I found is these institutions will literally just downgrade a stock as the stock is falling and we'll upgrade the stock as the stock is rising. Like basically just do the opposite of these.

These upgrades and downgrades. it's ridiculous. Like the last thing you should ever look at in finance are upgrades and downgrades. They're so dumb they're so bad.

All right. All right, let's talk about a video. I I gotta mentally prep for NVIDIA All right I Did it Well, let's talk about Nvidia reports earnings today, but we've got to go through some of the big competitive advantages for NVIDIA even Beyond earnings. We'll talk a little bit about earnings expectations and some of the things to look for in the finances.

But most importantly, we want to talk about what makes Nvidia an interesting, potentially unique investment opportunity in the long term. What are some of its advantages? So outside of the short-term news, what's the long-term thesis for investing Nvidia And what do those finances look like? Well, let's start just there. So what? We actually look at the finances, we can see that Nvidia and much like most of the chip companies, are quite frankly, in a bit of an earnings, well, recession. This is the latest Uh Nvidia report for the Year This is their latest annual report.

Uh, for the year ended January 2023. So in other words, uh, the full year of basically 2022 Jan did Jam. You can see that Revenue was flat while Revenue was flat their cost of sales. So their cost of goods sold their products cost them 23 percent more.

So their income was flat, but 23 more costs for the actual products. Their research and development up 39 Sales and general and administrative SG A of 12.6 leading to a net income decline of 44.7 percent. That is a negative. A negative 44.7 decline in, uh, net income.

This is an example of your earnings recession. Now it could be argued that hey, look, the company exploded and the fact that you have flat revenue is actually fantastic Because think about it, you went from 16, uh, 0.6 billies in January of 2020 uh uh, one to 26.9 Billies of Revies right after that. Uh, which is freaking awesome because if you look at that, it's like hey, wait a minute Kevin that is a 62 increase And the fact that we're flat off of that? Not bad. It's literally like growing like this than having this exponential explosion.

Uh, and then being flat. Yeah, I Wish it didn't correct because I liked my drawing better. It's kind of like growing like that and then having this explosion of exponential and then flattening. At least it didn't plummet back down to where it was just sort of a little triangle there, right? So this is actually pretty powerful.

Even though costs are going up, the revenues are flat, and the net income is like down 44. You've left the stimulus era, right? So of course you've got these really negative comps. And these negative comps have led a lot of these manufacturing companies or certain manufacturing companies. these chip designing companies like Nvidia AMD right? They all pretty much use Tsmc to manufacture.

Maybe Intel will come in the race in the future though, if they've got some work to do. They actually think that Intel could be a big player in the one and a half to two nanometer chip space. We're not quite there yet. Right now, we're working in a three to five nanometer uh chipset space.

That's the spacing of uh, uh, transistors and ships. The the smaller in theory, the more efficient and the better these chips could be. the stronger and more powerful. That's all down the road.

Well, Intel could be a game changer in manufacturing probably in 2024. 25 26. Uh, although they could also be a value trap and end up going bankrupt, but that's really a topic for a different video. We talk about Intel a lot in the course member streams most because that thing's trading for a PEG ratio of like 0.5 Now before I lose you on PEG ratio.

Remember what a PEG ratio is. It's how much you're paying for growth at a company. And one of the things that I like is I Like looking at companies uh, usually around a one and a half to 1.69 1.7 PEG ratio. That's about where Tesla is trading.

Now it's about where end phase is trading Now Etsy is trading below that right now. A problem with something like Nvidia it's trading for a little bit above that range right now at 306 dollars per share, 306 dollars, this is your share price and you'll see how to calculate Peg as well. Uh, right now we're looking at an A Full year of 2023. So first quarter earnings aside, full year of 2023, which is their fiscal 24.

we are looking at earnings of about four dollars and 60 cents projected. We'll get some guidance on that, but will probably be somewhere close to that. 306 divided by 4.60 puts you at a P E ratio a forward P ratio. So we say FPE a forward P E ratio of 66.5 It's a little bit rich now.

The company in terms of growth is expected for 25, 6, 7, and 28 all together to average about 25 growth. Well, if we divide by a 25 growth. so in other words, that P E by 25. Uh, removing the percent is what you do for this math.

Divide 66.5 by 25, you get a PEG ratio of about 2.66 Unfortunately, just on a simplified valuation measure that's quite a bit above where we probably ought to be of closer to 1.6 1.7 It's about 66 above that. That's quite a bit stretched right now now. Maybe Nvidia's earnings will explode more. And that's possible.

That's the hope is that Nvidia's earnings will explode more because of, well, the whole reason people are investing in video right now. and it's obviously artificial Intelligence everyone's investing in Nvidia right now because it's seen as the best play for artificial intelligence going forward. And that might be the case because quite frankly, when it comes to Dedicated Gpus graphic processing units uh, which are going to be the strongest and most powerful for providing data and services for, well, artificial intelligence Nvidia takes about 80 to 88 of the market share. That's a really, really powerful.

So when you have Nvidia taking 80 to 80 percent of that market share, you kind of look and go well. If you're going to want to invest in, AI maybe just maybe investing in Nvidia is the place to do it. The problem is, AI has really been hype trained up before. We've actually started to confirm where AI revenues are going to come from.

This is something that I always caution and it is this idea of okay, well look AI we know is going to be great I Think all of us agree that it's going to add productivity to us as individuals. If you're not becoming more productive because of, uh, artificial intelligence, you're probably going to end up getting left behind. You don't want to get left behind because if you get left behind, you're more likely to lose your job. You're less likely to get a promotion you're less likely to is that eventually get ahead in life.

So you want to incorporate AI in your life and we want to invest in AI related plays. This is why I have a program on building your wealth. So we've got programs on investing stocks and real estate. We do fundamental analysis on stocks, so you know we'll do some fundamental analysis on Nvidia here as well.

and we'll do some earnings expectations. But also well, we have a course on building your income, how to make more money and get Sh 19 done faster featuring AI The AI segment and how to actually incorporate AI in your life comes out June 1st. So check that out before the pricing goes up after that content drops. But what do we know about Nvidia Well, we know a lot.

We know that Nvidia is uh, using Tsmc to manufacture a lot of their chips and they sell their Gpus to the software companies and server companies that use them for artificial intelligence. think Microsoft AWS Google Cloud all of them when they use AI most of the AI technology and processing and the compute hours being put through Nvidia gpus. Now Google does have these Tpus, which we don't want to go into this super detail of what all these different processing units are. In that case, that's a tensor processing unit and Amazon's also making its own server-based uh chipsets.

When it comes to actually processing artificial intelligence, Nvidia has like I said 80 80 of the lead. Now there are two different types of Graphics units. They're sort of your integrated Graphics chips, in which case Nvidia actually has a very small market share of them. This is sort of for your regular consumer products whether it's a laptop, whatever.

but when it comes to Dedicated graphic processing which used to be uh, etheuria mining for example with Gpus which no longer is, that's LED their Gaming revenue to absolutely tank that's contributed to their earnings recession. Uh, that's gone now, right? But when we have dedicated uses for artificial intelligence, what are we looking for? We're looking for dedicated used trips in Nvidia is the 80 to 88 market share of this. uh and again, they're using Tsmc to manufacture. but Tsmc has also got a little bit of an up their valuation.

probably also trading for somewhere right around a three peg. But people see Nvidia as the really shovels of the gold mining race in artificial intelligence and the reason people call it sort of a picks and shovels. play is again, we don't know which software companies are going to win when it comes to Aeon. We think that oh Google's going to win or open AI is going to win or all of these you know, uh, maybe Microsoft will win because of their investments into uh uh, you know open AI or you know Google's Bard will win.

But the problem with this is we don't know yet which software is going to win. In my opinion, the best software is where people are going to flock to. As soon as there's a better chat bot, everybody goes over to that chat bot and dumps The Bard and open AI behind. That's a big problem, especially since when you look at a company like Google in terms of an investment, you're looking at advertising revenue and network placing placements on websites representing 16 nine percent of the company's income.

Well, if that income starts bleeding down because you need to search less, sure AI will contribute to some sort of income. Uh, at Google How do we know how much income that's going to contribute? What I worry about is that AI will contribute Revenue Like this for Google Well, their ad Revenue goes down so you'll see an increase of AI Revenue here for Google but you'll see search and advertising Revenue Decline and you potentially have this massive loss as potentially some of these ads go to other AI platforms. We just don't have that certainty yet. but we do know that video is probably your AI processing play and that's exciting.

This is one of the reasons Nvidia is blowing up so much recently. One of the things to know as well is that a lot of people use the Nvidia architecture for actually building applications or programming on and I'm not a programmer, but a lot of people use the software stack that Nvidia uses to extract the power out of Gpus. The coda system is amazing for doing exactly this, and a lot of people prefer it. When they prefer this.

for their server infrastructure, they have to use Nvidia chips AMD is not even close yet In in terms of these, these AI processing chips that Nvidia has and they're just now I mean way after Nvidia have they gotten into creating their own software Stacks to try to compete with it what Nvidia has? so Nvidia has some massive advantages. Now, what's also exciting? A lot of the Cuda by the way, creates a massive mode for NVIDIA So when you're investing in video, you're not just creating it or not just investing in this chip designer. you're also investing in their software and the moat that they have because of their software, whether it's the Omniverse or Cuda or otherwise. Now, it's worth noting that if you look at the top about 111 actual Graphics units listed on Benchmark UL What's remarkable is the first 111 chips basically show you a dual Opera you have AMD and Nvidia.

That's it when it comes to graphic units, but when it comes to AI ones for those servers, Nvidia is the winner. It's not until the 112th chip that you actually get to an Intel graphic Processing Unit which is pretty remarkable. Now, one of the downsides that you're seeing right now is unfortunately: Nvidia has this huge backlog of inventory of Gpus because of the lack of use from Ethereum Mining and also everybody's already bought the new gaming PC during coven. So you have this massive PC Crush You've got a massive inventory glut, so you actually have some risk factors for NVIDIA in the short term that potentially inventory gluts are going to reduce pricing power at companies like Nvidia You're going to see reduced margins and you're going to see reduced revenues before you actually see the AI revenues come through.

Just because AI started becoming really exciting in the last two months doesn't mean all of a sudden every company Under the Sun is buying more Nvidia chips. It could take years to really see AI play out in Nvidia So I think Nvidia is really this play that you have to look at from a long-term point of view rather than something that you want to play short term. I actually would be short-term bearish on Nvidia Trying to play earnings mostly because we don't know I Mean maybe that's already built into the expectations? That's always the funny thing with earnings. Uh, you know, when you look at earnings, you're looking at an implied one-day volatility movement of 4.7 percent.

So 4.7 stock movement after this earnings doesn't seem that big. Nvidia's EPS has beat four out of eight times, so it's a total coin toss. although their revenue has beat 7 out of eight of the last times, so there's a good chance they'll beat on the top line again, but potentially again miss on the bottom line so we'll see. But we know Nvidia's had one heck of a run up recently because of AI and I Don't think AI is going to be contributing to a big portion of their revenue anytime soon, even though we do know and maybe they're forecasting their guide will help because if they give a really Rosy full year guy, maybe that'll help boost the stock.

but I really think it's going to be a minute before we see some of this. This Revenue actually pushed through Uh, Nvidia doesn't really do a 5G uh. We know this is more of a Qualcomm play, but some people have been asking about that uh, you've got competition coming for a manufacturing, but that could actually contribute uh to uh to Nvidia The more companies like Intel or Applied Materials or whatever. uh Micron uh in America that might end up manufacturing under the chips act.

those companies uh will benefit from from the stimulus checks the governments are handing out for manufacturing chips in the United States Uh, this is good and that could be good for potentially reducing some of the costs of Nvidia actually having to manufacture chips because remember Nvidia doesn't manufacture. They design and create software and then they Outsource the manufacturing. This is very typical. only Intel really does both.

They both design and manufacture. but even like a Tesla they might design their own chips but have somebody else manufacture them. So there is some excitement about this manufacturing Coming to America This sort of reassuring some worry that this is going to be inflationary and actually increase the cost of chips. and uh, even the CEO of Nvidia Just today on the Financial Times argued that we have to be careful about more of these restrictions against China and sort of limiting China's exports.

Uh, mostly because they could end up hurting Nvidia's ability to actually sell this massive backlog of chips that they have. So there are some short-term concerns as well with the United States potentially being too aggressive against Uh China and how more of these chip bans could potentially actually encourage China to Uh to manufacture their own proprietary chips at the downside or to the downside of Nvidia. But just today in the Financial Times, you have the CEO of Nvidia warning about enormous damage from the escalating battle over chips between Washington and Beijing suggesting that your tying silicon Valley's hands behind their backs if China can't buy from the United States and they just end up building their own chips. So a big warning uh there from Jensen your CEO Of course China's uh China Before all of these Uh sanctions or as many of these sanctions, China represented somewhere around 24 of Nvidia's order book.

so big chunk of it. I Actually like investing in companies that have exposure to China generally because I don't have to invest in Chinese companies to get Chinese growth, I can invest in American companies to get that growth I Like that. Uh, you did just also have an announcement between Apple and Broadcom, but that's more of a middle finger to Uh Qualcomm than it is to Nvidia Intel dominates the CPU market and maybe the integrated GPU Market contributes to this. But really, Nvidia When it comes to Dedicated trips and AI chips, they're the almost the only game in town.

On top of that, they're paying somewhere around 1.9 percent in taxes because they run a lot of their revenue through subsidiaries whether it's in the Cayman, Islands the Netherlands or other countries in Europe. This has led a lot of people to be very frustrated over some of the tax credits and and opportunities that they're able to do to avoid or take advantage of to avoid taxes and a lot of people. Slam in a video for this, Nvidia sees this as just smart taxation running some of their revenue even through Israel or Hong Kong and they suggest this allows them to spend more money on R D which Nvidia will also benefit from chips uh, the chips act and R D spending which is great. Remember, this is this is stimulus money.

It's basically free stimulus money uh, which is very exciting. These these companies will benefit tremendously from Investments directly from the government and money printing. So if you like investing where stimulus funding is going, chips, manufacturing, and chips, you have to be careful though, because if you search like top chip companies in America, you might get search results like Frito-Lay or Lays or whatever. It's a problem so you have to be careful.

But uh, anyway. I I do I I Just want to make sure we're doubling down on how important Cuda is. Uh, because a lot of current AI systems are actually trained on this coding infrastructure of Cuda It is a massive mode for NVIDIA It has been in development for 16 years. It's their proprietary Uh software stack and it lets you extract That Power from the Nvidia Gpus.

So if you just if you want to run processing through the Gpus rather than just the CPUs you have to use Cuda Uh. and and Cuda is just. it's robust. It's great.

It's a fantastic software, so the competition just doesn't hold a candle to this. And so people like manufacturer or basically coding with this compared to Uh Amd's uh Rock M which is, you know, sort of your closest second. but it's still a big second. Uh, it's probably Some people say it's nine years behind Cuda.

It probably isn't nine full years behind. It's probably more like two or three years behind. but uh, it came nine years later. So uh, it's also worth noting that Nvidia has transitioned from gaming to Data Centers And this has been critically important because gaming has just absolutely gotten destroyed.

uh, or post covet. because again, it's pretty already got their uh uh, they've already got their new gaming PC Uh, and gaming has been substantially less of of a level of importance for Nvidia's Revenue Uh, Amd's catching up on gaming as well, so maybe less of an area to to to really grow. But really, what's what's important to know is that right now, the market is already pricing in about 25 growth for NVIDIA Uh, and that's at a PEG ratio of 2.6 I think we said uh yeah, 2.66 you're already paying a premium for that 25 growth I think 306 is a high level I'm not saying that Nvidia deserves to go down I Wouldn't short this stock just because it's such a blindly easy pick for institutions to go. Oh, we need AI exposure.

Just buy Nvidia like a drunken sailor because yeah, artificial adults. That doesn't mean it's going to outperform other stocks though in the near terms. So while I have exposure to Nvidia I'm not I'm not very excited about having a super high allocation to Nvidia Uh, right now, would I consider trimming before earnings? potentially Am I going to I I Have no idea. Uh I I don't generally like playing earnings I Think it's very risky to do that, but I do think there's a lot of enthusiasm that's coming before the the actual stake, right? Like the analogy of selling the sizzle before the stake.

Yay! AI Boom! Okay, where are the AI revenues? Uh, they'll be here in a few years Like they will come, but it's going to take a little minute. and and at this PEG ratio I think there are better deals to buy? Uh I Mean you know we just had a report uh from Goldman Sachs that online retail is starting to explode again in April based on retail sales reports from April and you're looking at uh Etsy trading at about a 1.3 times Peg So it makes you wonder. Okay, do you want to get into that kind of consumer discretionary? do you? If you want AI Tesla's much cheaper than Nvidia right now at you know, somewhere around a 1.6 to 1.8 pay. You be careful when you do these these uh calculations as well.

Not to use 2022 numbers, you have to go current current year out. So 9 to 16 18 months out is generally what I do with evaluations because you're getting away from some of the whole of the earnings recession that you saw in 2022. So uh, do keep in mind for expectations: We're looking at 92 cents of adjusted EPS Gap EPS We're looking at 61 cents Revenue Expectation: We're looking at 6.52 billion dollars net income 2.27 Bill expected Uh. data center revenue is expected to, uh, jump nicely.

so hopefully that uh, that stays that way. uh again. if uh, if you run some DCFS on these, you're you're really looking at growth already priced in at least 25 already priced in. Some are arguing depending on how you run your DCF that you could be sitting around 30 already priced in 35 Price? Damn.

Uh, so a lot of uh, a lot of uh, richness already priced there. We'll leave it at that. But again, you know they're going to have a great growth story over the next decade and it's possible that the growth that's been forecast before this AI boom hasn't yet really been updated to reflect how much growth is truly going to come from. AI.

So I will say I think AI is going to be a big part of what we hear about in the earnings call today, so that'll be fascinating. And so I'm super excited to see what happens here at the same time. Again, AMD is is really focused on gaming. Uh, and yes, they're going to focus on to some extent.

uh, servers. and and AI for Enterprise the the right focus in my opinion is on Ai And and these server chips and I think Nvidia is just playing the game correctly. here. they've got the edge with good.

they've got the moat with Cuda uh and uh, and they just they're dominant in the market. So there's little you could say about how Nvidia is not going to be a massive beneficiary of AI. They almost certainly will be a massive beneficiary of AI. But uh, the valuation today? Hey, let's just say you know I hope uh I hope they crash uh over the next few earning Cycles so you could pick up Nvidia cheaper.

maybe when the AI hype cycle dies down a little bit. Uh am I jumping up and down about buying in a 306? hey, who knows? you know? maybe they give Rosie guidance and they're up 10 and you're like, ah, should have bought, you know, But the valuation is Rich and usually the market does a good job of eventually leveling out those rich valuations. Uh, if I had to say what would be a little bit more of a fair price right now? uh for NVIDIA I'd probably say you'd want to be closer to and people are gonna get mad at me saying it. but probably 200 to 250 would be more reasonable if you were under 200 like we were for a while when I initiated my position in it around 150.

well then it was just juicy but duh I mean it's doubled since then. so uh anyway. uh remember if you want all of my buy and sell alerts, join the Stocks and Psychology of Money group link down below. If you want to join me on the AI drop, make sure you join before June 1st for the How to Make More Money and Get Sh9t done faster course members who are already part of uh, the income course or getting that sector for free and you can lock in your price as well before we increase the price again.

When the content actually comes out on June 1st the other content's already in there, but the AI content is coming out on June 1st. Uh. So with that said, very excited about Nvidia long term short-term Bearish. Uh, it doesn't mean I'm gonna dump all of my uh Nvidia exposure beforehandco.

but uh, who knows? Maybe a little trim is in store. But yeah, anyway, that gives you some insight on a video. Hopefully it's useful for you even. Beyond this next, uh, earnings? uh, set that comes out and uh yeah, I wouldn't bet against them long term for sure.

Just like you shouldn't bet against those courses of building your wealth thing down below. Yeah, all right, welcome back. So what do you think? The biggest hurdle for end faces? Well, I mean it's it's the housing market right. And interest rates and housing.

It's very, very expensive. Uh JPMorgan supposed stock recommendations to their clients that tagged you in on Twitter No, uh Happy look at it. Uh, too much coffee? I'm actually I'm actually too little coffee right now. So uh yeah.

I actually like to get some more coffee. Full list on. let me get my report. Ah, interesting.

Okay, we'll take a look at that. so we'll look at a few things here. so let's see what we got. So we've got two things to cover here.

Uh, so let's see what your tag is here on Twitter How do I figure this out? Latest at Realme Kevin where where's the chase thing? uh uh Chase I mean I I don't see it? maybe DM me on Twitter because it's It's really annoying to try to find tags on Twitter especially with people calling me a Karen for complaining about Tesla's hat. it's it's not that hard you you dumb dummies like you don't want to be a block like I Really do feel like some of these people on Twitter they're just like you said, something bad about testing your that ad was horrible. Somebody's like, oh, it's just it was just a testimonial video. It wasn't an ad.

What a waste. What a waste of production. What an absolute waste. Absolutely stupid like these.

It's not even worth lookin