What's up guys and welcome back to wall street millennial on this channel, we cover everything related to socks and investing the fierce resistance that the ukrainian military and people have been putting up against the russian invasion has been remarkable. Russia was considered one of the most formidable military powers in the world, leading up to the invasion, with many expecting the invasion to be a quick victory. But the way things have played out has been much different than expected for several key reasons, including sabotage and even friendly fire putin has been unable to take the most strategically important parts of ukraine and the cost to the russian military, the russian people and the russian Economy has been extreme in a recent survey leading economists from harvard princeton, stanford and other institutions shared their thoughts on what the fallout will be most agree, that it will result in a deep recession for russia worse than 08, and many even went as far as to Say that it will cause global stagflation, some even made an argument that the us dollar's position as the world's reserve currency is at risk as a result of the sanctions. Weaponizing dollar finance today we're going to examine why exactly putin has failed in such dramatic fashion.

So far in his invasion and what the consequences will be for the russian and world economy, but before we get into it, make sure you subscribe to our brand new free podcast with the podcast. You can listen to our content on your way to work or anywhere else. You go just search wall street millennial on spotify or apple podcast, during the entire build up before the invasion and the first few weeks after the russians finally crossed the border. It looked like a david vs goliath standoff.

Russia is obviously one of the world's premier military superpowers. In contrast, ukraine is a country with a population roughly the size of california, but, unlike california, ukraine's economy is a complete disaster. Since the collapse of the soviet union, ukraine's economic growth has been disrupted and stunted by an unrelenting series of recessions regime changes and the accompanying revolutions. Today, the country ranks second to last on the heritage foundation's list of european countries by economic freedom.

There's not a single country in europe with a lower per capita gdp militarily. That translates to an unimaginable mismatch between the russian and ukrainian militaries russia amassed a military force complete with nearly 200 000 troops, 300 aircraft, numerous naval vessels and modern weapon systems. The biggest challenge to ukraine was russia's air power dominance. Russia has advanced domestically designed and produced jets cruise missiles, such as the 881 pound, kh-555 and air defense systems, including the s-400 missile system.

Ukraine, on the other hand, mostly only has shoulder-mounted surface-to-air missile systems that they received as aid from the us and other western nations when putin finally invaded ukraine on february 24th, the russian military quickly destroyed key infrastructure in ukraine, the overwhelming force of russian artillery missiles and Troop numbers led us intelligence to predict that the ukrainian capital, kiev, would fall within just 96 hours, but despite their numbers, russia was unable to completely secure ukrainian airspace, which severely reduced the effectiveness of their ground troops. American-Made shoulder-launched javelin missiles made it dangerous for any russian aircraft to fly in ukraine. There were several videos early on in the invasion, supposedly showing russian aircraft being shot down by ukrainians using javelin missiles. The similar stinger system, meanwhile menaced russian tanks so very quickly.

The russian invasion experienced slowdowns, but by sheer force they continued to advance march 6th was the peak of russia's advance. On that day, the us announced that 95 of russia's invasion force was operating on ukrainian soil, a giant convoy, tens of miles long of military vehicles and soldiers was ominously approaching kiev. By this point, the convoy was only 15 miles away to the north of the capital, but that was about as far as they would go. On march 7, russian major general vitaly gerasimov was killed by ukrainian forces.

The giant russian convoy was stalled and the invasion was looking more and more like a stalemate around this time, the morale of the russian military was likely suffering. The russian defense ministry itself admitted that close to 500 russians had already been killed in the fighting ukraine and the us claimed that the true number was potentially more than 10 times higher than that on top of their military difficulties. Many frontline soldiers found that they were not going into ukraine for the reasons that they had been originally told. Many had been told that they were going in to liberate an oppressed population or to fight nazi extremists.

Russian military leadership recognized the rising disillusionment of their own soldiers. They sent in an estimated 20 major generals to the front lines to boost morale by working alongside regular foot soldiers. These high-ranking officers hoped to bring back the russian momentum, but the strategy backfired when even more russian generals were killed in battle. Major general oleg matiev was killed on march 15th in mario bowl around this time.

The u.s stated that the russian advance had been stalled on all fronts by the 23rd. Ukraine was mounting significant counter-attacks on russian forces. They successfully pushed back russian forces to the east of kiev. The damage inflicted on the russian invasion force by the determined ukrainians was severe, and on april 7th, the kremlin said that the invasion had been a tragedy for russia.

Despite the disaster, that's been on the military front for russia, with tens of thousands of soldiers likely killed in combat the economic damage to russia is also dire as a result of the unilateral western sanctions, russian companies are getting crippled and the effects get worse. The longer the invasion drags on for foreign companies are no longer willing to engage in trade with russia, and that is devastating for their economy. Over 150 000 russian workers were either furloughed or laid off in just the first month after the invasion began. Unemployment is soaring at the same time that inflation is skyrocketing.

Consumer prices in russia are expected to rise by 20 percent this year. The soaring inflation is a result of multiple factors. Supply has cratered, as producers have been forced to close down their operations. Foreign investment has fled russia further, pressuring the value of the ruble in relation to foreign currencies.

The university of chicago's igm forum put out a survey to a group of world-leading economists about the effects of the russian invasion on the russian and world economy. Regarding the effects on the russian economy, they overwhelmingly agree that the sanctions will lead to a deep recession in russia, excluding their energy exports. Russia runs a large current account deficit. That means that it overall buys more foreign goods and services than it exports.

Now that the country has lost access to many supplies and services provided by western nations, its manufacturing sector will not be able to function at anything close to its full capacity. Domestic manufacturing output dropped in march at the fastest rate in many years. Besides the onset of kovid on top of already slowing russian economic growth before the sanctions, this means that the russian economy will be left virtually in shambles whenever the sanctions are lifted, while the rest of the world will also suffer from the russian sanctions, the economic implications Won't be nearly as bad. Europe will be the most hard hit, with 70 of economists surveyed by the igf forum, saying that the oil and gas sanctions will risk throwing european economies into recession.

Germany, for example, has been almost totally dependent on russian energy as the single largest economy in europe. By a significant margin, a recession there would have ripple effects across the entire continent. They've already suspended certification of the nordstrom 2 pipeline, effectively stunting the supply of natural gas into the country, but despite the economic consequences, germany understands the urgency to stop the russian invasion, given its close proximity to ukraine at the beginning of the invasion german chancellor, olaf schultz Announced that germany would increase their military spending by as much as one third to invest in their own national security. Historically, almost all the nato countries, including germany, have been somewhat piggybacking off the us in terms of military spending.

Last year, the second highest spender, the uk. Only spent less than 10 of what the u.s spent even on a percentage of gdp basis. The u.s spends about twice as much on defense as its largest nato counterparts, but with russia now knocking on western europe's doorstep. These countries know that they need to take some economic pain in order to prepare for and deter any possible further advancement by putin, and that means more spending on defense and less purchasing of the economic lifeblood that is russian oil and natural gas.

The good news for america is that the economic consequences will likely be much less severe and short-lived right after the invasion began, economists increased their inflation expectations, significantly. Inflation expectations for the second quarter increased from 3.7 to 5.3 percent, but the elevated inflation rates are expected to all but go away after the first few quarters of the year by the fourth quarter. Economists only expect inflation to be 0.3 percentage points higher as a result of the invasion. According to data compiled by cnbc in terms of economic growth, estimates were revised about 0.8 percentage points lower for the second quarter, but only a tenth of a percentage point lower for the fourth quarter.

If these projections turn out to be right, the us will be economically pretty much recovered within just a few quarters. Overall, the biggest loser of the russian invasion is russia itself. Their soldiers are dying by the tens of thousands and their economy is getting destroyed. The full effects of the economic sanctions will take a long time to fully play out, and yet the immediate effects are already crippling the longer the war drags on, the more people will die and the more damage will be done to their own economy.

Putin has been able to artificially stem the collapse of the ruble in recent weeks by imposing restrictions on capital, outflows and other restrictions, but these measures can only work for so long. The longer that the ukrainian military and population hold out the harder will be the fall when the russian economy has its self-inflicted day of reckoning. Alright, guys that wraps it up for this video. What do you think will be the consequences of ukraine's military victories on russia's economy? Do you think putin will be able to save his country from himself? Let us know in the comments section below, as always.

Thank you so much for watching and we'll see in the next one wall, street millennial signing out.