All right, we're expecting 225 for total non-farm payrolls. Here we go, we're expecting 225 and an unemployment rate of 3.4 Average hourly earnings month over month to be 0.3 Come on man. come in soft. Okay, we have 311.

It's really hot. That's bad. That's not what we wanted to hear. Unemployment rate actually ticked up though.

That's weird. Uh, oh thank God Average hourly earnings point Two: Oh thank God Oh, it's a Saving Grace Average hourly earnings month over month came in low at 0.2 Thank God Headline: Unemployment number came in at 311 311. Though that's almost a hundred thousand jobs hot. Uh, it's about 80, 84, 000 jobs hot.

That's insane. Uh, that's the total change in non-farm payrolls comes in really hot again at 311. you have the change in private payrolls coming in at a 265. the expectation was 215.

That's really hot. You have the unemployment rate actually ticked up to 3.6 from 3.4 I'm not sure what kind of funny math the BLS is doing there. We'll look at the report. average hourly earnings coming in, thank goodness Thank goodness at 0.2 percent as opposed to point three.

The last thing we'd need is is more pain there. Uh, we're just now getting the revisions. Uh, year over year, average hourly earnings come in at 4.6 versus the expectation of 4.7 Okay, at least at least no wage price spiral. That's good, which now we've got.

Uh, labor force participation rate takes up 0.1 That's probably why the unemployment rate moved. Uh, now you do have a slight revision of the prior data. You are moving the 517 000 payrolls from January down to 504.. that's a nominal revision.

So nominal revision. So this is a I would say good news and bad news report. Let's go to the Uh BLS Labor Report or Jobs. Let's go ahead and actually pull up the report here.

But uh I would say let me see what other revisions we've got coming in here. This is you've got again. Okay, we're changing manufacturing. Negative: Four thousand.

The expectation was 10K Uh, so you're seeing manufacturing payroll suffer. That is is definitely an indication of a recession coming. But then again, we've been talking about indications of recession coming. I Mean everything is pointing to recession right now and this is why people are so worried about the Federal Reserve continuing to hike, especially in the face of Bank runs and potentially a financial crisis.

That's the last thing you want on this. Market But anyway, unemployment rate? Uh, again. 3.6 That's up from 3.4 and that average hourly earnings report. That's that's good.

No, no great news though on the revisions. Basically still guiding high on the on the prior uh uh January report which is not fantastic, but is what it is now. Uh, what we're also going to do is look at what Wall Street is saying. So uh, let's see here.

Uh payroll gains were led by Leisure and Hospitality Retail Trade Government Healthcare That's exactly what you would expect. Now you have a previous two months of payrolls were revised down by thirty four thousand. That's the previous two months I gave you the revision for the previous one month. but again, that's very, very nominal.

Uh, but that does. Uh, that does slightly rev. At least it's a revision down, right? So let's look at the bright side. It's revision down, not a revision up.

Right now. it does look like you're also seeing treasury yields fall on this. This Very interesting. Uh, yep.

Treasury yields 10-year treasury yield is now down 12 basis points. Okay, this is enough for I Mean there is. There is entirely the possibility that with the the If if we get a nominal CPI report like this suggests, there's entirely the possibility that with the financial stress that you're seeing in the banking system now, it is entirely possible that the Federal Reserve actually pauses and says, oh, oh, we're gonna just, uh, pause for a moment and wait and see, because maybe there actually is a lag. Uh yeah.

okay. two-year treasury yield now down 16.4 basis points. Again, Now you're actually starting to see the recipe of what recession feels like. Uh, it.

It's actually finally starting to happen Where you're starting to see, uh, you're still seeing job gains again in that the Leisure Hospitality stuff. but that's underemployed. You're still below Trend. But if inflation goes away, and now you're worried about financial stability, that's bad.

Uh, that's now. you're going. From the fear of inflation to the fear of of an actual financial crisis. All right.

Uh, at the same time. By the way, I'm gonna just uh, sorry about that. Let me going to keep up here. What Wall Street is saying? Okay, I Don't see a lot of payroll declines in these reports lately, but remember payroll.

Extremely, a lagging treasury yields dropping across the entire curve. Uh, it does look like you have, uh, with a move of 36 bases with a hike. Okay, let's see here. I mean I I Don't want to come across as actually suggesting that like the Market's really going to say.

oh, the Fed's going to pause I'm just saying there's a possibility when you, when you start getting no impetus of inflation combined with this banking disaster that's going on. Anyway, total non-farm payroll increased 311 000 edged up. Uh, the unemployment rate edged up to 3.6 Again, it's because participation rate moved up 0.1 percent Hispanic Unemployment 5.3 That's an increase you've got. Uh, let's see here: Unemployment rate for adult Men: 3.3 3.2 for women.

Okay, black unemployment rate's the highest at 5.7 Asians 3.4 Whites 3.2 Why there's such a difference is is this is something that hopefully goes away at some point. Anyway, the number of persons, uh, jobless less than five weeks increased 343 000. offsetting a decrease in the prior month. This is very interesting.

These are new layoffs right here. right? Less than five weeks? That means those are brand new people who just got laid off and that number decreased in the prior month. This is the pool. This is the entire pool of people who've been laid off less than five weeks that just shot up by three hundred, Forty thousand dollars.

So you are seeing the pain in the labor market when you actually look at the details. Yes, I Understand the headline number is going up, but the headline number is only going up because you still have severe unemployment or underemployment in sectors. Consider health care, for example. Let me let me just draw this so you could understand this because sometimes people don't understand it.

If this is the trend of Health Care employment going up right, Let me actually just draw that If that's the trend of healthcare employment going up because of the pandemic, we saw Health Care employment rotate down and now we're kind of back to those 2019 levels, right? If you kind of draw like this, you're back to those 2019 levels. But where we should be still represents a 900 000 job Gap just for health care. That's just health care. And again, the the leading job gains here so far are Leisure and Health Care Uh, Hospitality Retail, right? That makes sense.

Okay, let's look at the actual details here. These individuals. Okay, these are okay. What do we have here? This is number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons at Uh 4.1 was essentially unchanged.

No news here. Number of people not in the labor force Who Currently want a job unchanged 5.1 This is how you get. By the way: Jerome Powell's a Jolts ratio, right? we've got about. We just got the Joltz report that came in hot at 10.8 so we got 10.8 million job openings and the people who want a job at at 5.1 That that puts you at a ratio of over two, right? Jerome Powell Wants that to be in balance that one to one.

but it's just weird because you're getting the layoffs on on one side, especially Tac right? Uh, and white collar. It's kind of being somewhat called The White Collar recession. but you're still getting hiring like crazy. Look at this: Uh.

notable job gains occurred Leisure Hospitality Retail trade, government Health Care employment declined and transportation warehousing. This is very male dominant and these sectors are very female dominant. So Transportation Warehousing, Construction? you're you're probably 70 percent male The stat from The Wall Street Journal Leisure Hospitality That's over 60 percent women. So you can actually see more women going back to work after the pandemic who previously decided to stay home uh, to take care of children because they had to because they didn't have child care or whatever you know, pandemic forces or they retired from the health care industry.

Whatever. A lot more people potentially going back to work now going back to work at higher wages. especially in this area. Here look at that: 105 000 jobs in Leisure and Hospitality similar to the average monthly gain of 91 000 over the past six months food and service and drinking places at its 70 000 jobs, employment continued to Trend up in accommodation Fourteen thousand employment Leisure Hospitality Look at that: you're still below your pre-pandemic level by 410 000.

So remember I Told you Healthcare 900 000 below Trend Well over here, this is not even below Trent This is below pre-pandemic levels. So in other words, you're still 410 000 jobs short in Leisure and Hospitality that doesn't even consider that you usually have Trend Growth: This is a disaster. This is a complete disaster. Then you have employment in retail trade Rising By 50 000 in February Merchandise Retailers 39 000 Again, these are still under Trend Employment and Professional and Business Services continue to Trend up.

Let me see what else Wall Street is starting to say here. You can start to see some of the labor market softness in the data: Number of people who lost their jobs or complete attempt work increased 223 000 Number of people employed less than five weeks 343 That's what we pointed out. Dollar strength is touching session lows that makes sense the dollar Falls when yields fall. Another encouraging Point here is the increase in the labor force participation rate that take up absolutely right Only two out of 61 economists.

You can't listen to these predictions at all. Man, these predictions are just you. Either Either rigged or just nobody. Nobody can predict stuff in this market right now because it's such a crap shoot.

But anyway, it says only two out of 61 economists predicted a 0.2 reading for that gain in average hourly earnings. That is the only piece of good news today. Everything else is hell today. I I Guarantee you that banking contagion is an Sh-9t show that is very, very bad, especially with those unrealized losses, even at companies like JPMorgan Now don't get me wrong, Big Banks go through much more of a stress testing than small Banks But still only 2 out of 61 economists actually hit point two.

That's insane. Uh, yeah, no, but nobody knows what the hell's going on anyway. Employment: Okay, Healthcare added 44k. We still know again, we're 900k below Trend there Construction Group Uh, 24, 000 19 Social Assistance Information Technology there's your Tech Look at that.

So so you hear about all these popular Tech layoffs right? Like Facebook or whatever. Okay, so the deployment report tells you 25 000 jobs were lost in in Tech right? I Just want you to understand: look at this number here: Leisure and Hospitality added 105 000 in the same month. You added four times more jobs in Leisure and Hospitality alone than you lost in Tech. So you hear about all these Tech layoffs.

It's a drop in the bucket. Complete drop in the bucket. Transportation Warehousing down 22k 9000 in trucking and transportation. You've got.

Uh, let's see here. Employment Little change over here. Average hourly earnings. This is fantastic.

Point: two percent year over year. four point six percent fantastic And average work week for all employees edged down. That's good. That's a that's a sign of not overheating.

It's a sign that pricing power is going away. Uh, for for wage earners. But this is consistent with what we're seeing in the leading data with a leading data. Earnings Calls folks.

everybody gets mad. We're gonna go back to the reporter mode. Everybody gets mad at me when I say it, they're like no. Kevin The government reports I Think government reports are so lagging you got to look at what companies are doing.

Tyson Food On one hand bragging about how they're able to raise prices Last year Tyson votes they sell frozen chicken. Okay, they're bragging about how they can raise how much people they have was what they were arguing about. Now they're like, oh yeah, wages went up, but we can't raise prices anymore. In fact, we had to do some massive abnormal discounting of chicken because we didn't think people would just stop buying chicken.

But I guess people stopped buying chicken. Yeah, not only that, but Chipotle is finding it easier to hire Starbucks Finding it easier to hire Target Costco All of these companies are hiring less people and focusing more on Walmart saying it. They're all focusing on autonomy and efficiency and productivity. not on hiring more.

The hiring boom is is not in Staples anymore. Yes, it is still in health care. and Leisure and Hospitality However, it is easier to hire there now. And other things that you don't actually capture in these sort of reports is the removal of perks and signing bonuses.

Healthcare Used to give people five to ten thousand dollars as a signing bonus just to get people to sign on to take a job that's over. You don't do those signing bonuses anymore because you don't have to remember Tech How everybody on Tick Tock used to brag about all these perks that they had working for their perky tech companies. folks. What is this? Listen this.

the Wall Street Journal literally has a title. The perk session is underway now when I first read that I don't you can't blame me. But when I first read that I thought they were going to talk about like people's like breast sizes going down or something like that over time or something. No, they're not talking about boobs, they're talking about the ping pong tables have turned.

That's their lame line here. But anyway, companies are cutting back on prized employee perks from fancy coffee and free cab rides. Yeah, you're still getting the traditional health care and retirement, but these other forms of a compensation like free laundry, dry cleaning, special coffee Baristas extra days off? like Salesforce was giving employees a wellness day off like a paid day off to just go home and do whatever you want sitting in your bedroom. uh and all these perks basically going away now because employees don't have pricing power anymore baby.

it's over. This is called recession. Employees don't got no PP no more. uh you know at uh, getting rid of uh as much of their their dining compensation paid birthdays used to exist, those are starting to go away.

This is very normal on a daily basis. We are now seeing more and more evidence that employees do not have pricing power and that is exactly what this labor report is showing. So if you're looking for good news today and I understand, listen I want employees to make more money but I want to be very very clear Brandon says what kind of research were you trying to do I was reading the Wall Street Journal Okay anyway uh they're pretty good. Okay I like the Wall Street uh but but anyway, this is a sign that pricing power for employees is gone and the the Bureau of Labor Statistics is finally starting to catch on.

Thank God because imagine if we combine a wage price spiral with a financial crisis would be screwed. Best case scenario: Silicon Valley Bank and all these these over levered Banks they go bankrupt. Leave the big Banks alone. JPM Bank of America whatever they'll get hit, they'll suffer losses.

People keep coming to me. especially you all know I have course member live streams I think I get asked at least once a week. Why don't I invest in the banks at least I Get asked once a week from course members Kevin I Want to invest in the banks? Why aren't you investing in the banks? Why are you investing in the banks And you know My answer is every single time you can look at the entire Archive of my course member live streams, course members will attest to this: It's a coupon down the below by the way for St Patty's Day uh what? and you can start using it now. What is every what do I always say My response is I Don't touch financials in a recession because I have no idea what the hell is happening to those loans and this is exactly what's happening here I Don't touch financials in a recession.

No thank you I Do Not go near them. Oh good Lord. Uh yes, Employee PP is shrinking this pricing power going away for employees. Look again.

I Don't want to see employees like lose money I Don't want to see people get fired because it hurts people Okay I do have sympathy for people Okay I I Like when I grew up, we had single 20 bills left over. We basically almost went through foreclosure. My dad did something known as feeding the kitty where you basically like you you We sold. We had to sell her a lot at home because our jobs lost, went through divorce is Hell had no money uh and he basically took the last amount of money.

He had to do the right thing and actually well I shouldn't say do the right thing and because that's an offense to people who who go through foreclosure. But but he didn't want to rip the bank off in his opinion. that was his opinion. And so he took all of the leftover savings we had and paid the loss to sell the home.

It was like our last 20K or whatever and we're down to nothing just to avoid a foreclosure. anyway. So uh, average, uh work? Yeah. and we had nothing for like seven years.

That sucked. Car getting repossessed. It sucked. Average work week for all employees uh, on non-farm payroll.

Edge down. This edging down is also a sign, especially here in manufacturing see manufacturing had more of an edge down 0.2 hours. This edging down is a reversal from January's report. You want to see more of this because again, you do not want to see the conditions for a wage price spiral.

That's why I'm cheering the last Pricing power again. It's not to be offensive to people, it's just simply to say we do not want pricing power right now. We don't want employees feeling like they can keep getting raises. Raises Raises raises because that's just going to lead Jerome Powell to Paul Volkeras and if he Paul volkers us I guarantee you everybody's worse off because then companies go bankrupt.

Now now is not the time to ask her more money. You know, let's get through 2023.. Anyway, this is insane. So so Anyway, let's see what else do we have here.

Market is now reducing their chances of a 50 BP hike Yesterday they were hot I Mean the market was pricing in like a 70 chance of a 50 basis point hike. Uh in in March here March 22nd. This report now cooling those expectations. Again, this is fantastic.

Uh. inflation report. Obviously CPI on the 14th is going to be a big deal. Employment of Temporary Service Helpers is considered a leading indicator of the labor market actually increased for the second month after falling for two months.

It shows us at least some remaining tightness. Okay, the temporary service now. Interestingly something that you're seeing with temp jobs is a lot of people taking second, third and fourth jobs, right? So I know that sounds crazy, but especially with a remote. These days you are seeing that.

Uh, let's see here. Yeah again. I Do wish the January data was revised down more. That's true.

Only a 34 000 revision over the last two months and 13 000 revision for January is actually not that great. However, you are starting to see that wave of layoffs employment in it has now decreased. Fifty Four thousand, Fifty Four thousand tech jobs gone since November As since October you've lost 42 000 transportation and warehousing jobs in aggregate here. slightly lower than expected.

Way okay, good, good, good, Good good. Okay, so so that's jobs Break Even Inflations Now is a reaction break-evens Uh, still sitting about 2.42 still a little hotter than the hole we were in, but massive plummet. Let me see what other revisions we have. Do we have any other revisions? No.

Again, that inflation was great. Terminal Fed funds rate teetering now around 5.5 fell to as low as about 5.45 this morning. Sort of in volatile pre-market news here. But uh, 5.5 is the expected terminal right now.

nicely down from that 5.65 Peak that we had. We'll take a quick look at Treasures you're still down 16 basis points on the two-year and if we jump on over to the Uh 10 year, you're down 10.3 basis points now at 3.82 So again, I I Would call this A when this is a successful employment report. This is showing: the Fed's efforts are starting to work. Now in my opinion, it's time to start slowing down because you're starting to see the The Dominoes starting to fall in the banking world.

And that's bad because we do not want to walk into a financial crisis. So how how does all this stuff come together and change? Potentially the investing strategy going forward. Well, actually, in my opinion, this reiterates the volatile Nike Swoosh This report reiterates the volatile Nike Swoosh You're going to have pain like like a Silicon Valley Bank going bankrupt nearly. They're technically not bankrupt yet, but they probably will be before the next few months are over.

I would get my money out of there. Do not rely on FDIC if you have money in Silicon Valley Bank or really any small Bank Be careful, this is going to be a this is going to be a class draft for even other small Banks Because people are going to go oh my God I Want to take my money out of these other small Banks and move into bigger Banks That'll actually help Shore up companies like Bank of America and JPM or whatever. but it's very dangerous for the other small Banks who don't go through the rigorous Federal Reserve strata stress tests that the small or the larger banks have to go through, but again, you're going to get that sort of volatility. This report, you can wipe the swipe sweat off your head.

This is good. We're going in the right direction. Yes, I know the the headline number came in still high, but again, those are jobs that we're getting in areas that are still either below Trend or below pre-pandemic levels. Leisure has Hospitality isn't even below Trend.

it's literally below pre-pandemic level. Still, so totally normal I'm happy about that. I am much more nervous about what's starting to happen in the banking sector. Jobs report: Good.

Let's now get to CPI on the 14th and hopefully we also get a relaxing CPI report. This is a good leading indicator for that CPI report hopefully coming in smoothly I'm hopeful this is why indices are now turning green I'm optimistic, but again, we don't want to be blind to the potential black swans that are coming our way. So anyway, check out those programs on building your wealth link down below because they're awesome. You're gonna get some pretty incredible perspective, especially on fundamental analysis and and looking for red flags at companies which companies are going to survive this recession? That, in my opinion, is where the big money is.

.