Now we've got to talk about Elon Musk and Master Plan 3 because oh boy, the rumors about Master Plan 3 are getting out of hand and I just want to be very clear up front pretty much every time Tesla has an event battery day, the robot uh, Investor Days Tesla stock Falls And in my opinion, it's because people come up with these insane ideas about what is actually going to end up being announced. and while I'm very enthused about some of the comments that people have uh I think they're mostly nonsense. So I'd like to clear up what's going on when it comes to rumors around Master Plan 3 Tesla and Elon Musk Okay, so first things first: Elon Musk Just announced uh, the the invitation page or what the invitation page looks like for investor Day at Giga Texas on March 1st this is what it looks like Elon Musk tweeted Master Plan Three The path to a fully sustainable energy future for the Earth will be presented on March 1st The future is bright if you zoom in on this. What you actually end up finding is that these little images are just copy and pasted Giga Castings uh, for or for a vehicle right now I think that is actually very very telling.

Some people though think that what is being shown here is actually potentially a new vehicle because what they're doing is they're zooming in and they're seeing this casting for a vehicle and they're aligning that rightfully so because it's a zoom in of what this is and they're aligning that with this casting image that we have. This makes sense. This is accurate so far, but unfortunately they are comparing it to this picture of a vehicle that is covered at the Cyber Rodeo Now I have provided my own intelligence to this because I happen to be sneaking around at the Cyber Rodeo I I Nobody told me I couldn't be there. but I happen to be sneaking around and I saw with this little video that I have here where I found the Cyber truck that they were covering up every car.

Every car that they had was covered. The model 3 was covered, the model X was covered. All of the cars were covered and while I did not find exactly that same vehicle, all of them were covered. And that's because you're in a brand new section of the factory.

you've got. uh, you know it's it's relatively Dusty They're about to put these cars on a stage. They want them to look good. Uh, they ended up covering the Cyber truck again.

they had to plug it in to charge it. Uh, you know because obviously it's a prototype over here. But point being, these rumors that Tesla is somehow going to announce a new vehicle I think are absolutely ludicrous now. I'm not trying to take away from the idea that yes, in the future there'll be a smaller car.

Maybe it'd be a two-door car. Maybe it'll be. Uh, you know the Tesla Q which people have mocked up because then then you know Elon Musk could get the giggles at the short sellers. So some people call it.

uh, the Tesla Q Maybe you would pronounce it Tesla Chi Whatever, right? And it's this two-door car that people have mocked up with a smaller battery set. Now so far, I'm one of the few people who are actually calling for a smaller battery. I'm a big fan of thinking we don't need 75 kilowatt hour batteries or 100 kilowatt hours or more. I Think what we need are 20 kilowatt hours.

That basically get us a car with an 80 to 100 mile range. It's our daily driver. It's super lightweight. It's super inexpensive to produce.

It's two doors. It's basically your solo commuter kind of car. Enough for you to go get groceries, come home you. You know you go to work.

Your average commute's 30 miles or 30 minutes rather, which is fewer miles generally because you have to stop lights and traffic lights and stuff. So uh, you're probably looking at 20 to 25 minute mile rather a commute. One Way 50 round trip you go to a grocery store, add another 10 miles on your way. you're you're back.

You've got about 20 percent of your battery left. You plug it in, you charge it right? that. that is my thesis of a future smaller car. And while I think that is accurate I Do not believe that just because some stupid car is covered.

Uh, right now which is just a photo from the Cyber Rodeo where I walked everywhere on and and and probably potentially went places I shouldn't go I I Don't actually think that it's proper to be hyped up. that Elon Musk's Master Plan 3 is somehow uh, the the next car now I'll be pleasantly surprised. Maybe maybe maybe maybe it's the next car. But here's what: I think the invitation clearly copy and pastes the Giga casting right.

the castings for these vehicles. Now what I think is really incredible about that is for almost a year I have been suggesting that Elon Musk and Tesla need to scale and they need to copy and paste the gigafactory substantially. Here by the way, is another close-up look at what those Giga castings look like. So or or the one piece uh casting I keep calling it Giga casting.

That's because the machine is is the Giga casting machine, but these are just just actual bodies of the vehicle. Uh, this is sort of one side of a vehicle showing it all compressed together and the idea which Tesla's pitched before is hey, we could take like 180 parts and welds or whatever and put them back basically into one piece. And the challenges here have been that anytime you try to do this traditionally, you end up getting the Pringles potato chip effect where uh, you have, uh, you know the casting kind of crinkle up and it's really difficult to actually make it not crinkle up. but they've basically engineered their own alloy mix of metals to make it not do that blah blah blah blah.

Okay, great. So going back to the copy and paste my thesis is that the reason on their invitation they copy and paste this casting over and over again is because I think Master Plan Three is the master plan about how many gigafactories Tesla can produce, and how they can actually massively scale how many mega packs they produce, how many cars they're able to sell, and really turn this into a Lego factory where no longer are you selling cars, you're just selling a commodity and then you make your margin on full self-driving That's my thesis and so I think it is massive scale which is playing three. Which don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to be like super creative with the massive scale thing. Elon himself has said that Generation three or the Master Plan 3 rather is all about scale.

So I think the New Gen 3 platform for the car that people talk about is probably just a lower cost version of what is already done. Basically, further bragging about the manufacturing progress that Tesla has. now, after all, is the point of investing in Tesla. If you are a Tesla investor, you are investing in the uniqueness of their Alloys to simplify the manufacturing process, the Giga presses You're investing in the ability to build new gigafactories and ramp them quickly and manufacture cars at massive Mass massive scale the likes of which hasn't been seen before.

That actually is counter-intuitive to the argument of let's introduce a new model vehicle because as soon as you introduce a new model vehicle, you, you actually slow down the ability to ramp. We already have new vehicles that need to be ramped. I Mean, think about it. Sure, we've got the S, the three, the X and the Y which are already ramped.

But what do you need to ramp next? How about the semi truck? How about the Cyber truck? That's what you got to ramp next. Forget about introducing this two-door car. Do that in three years, four years. What commodity prices have finally come down? Sorry.

Steve If you're watching I Think commodity prices are going to come down over time. Uh, you know, long term I think Commodities ultimately always Trend down. Uh Anyway, so these rumors in my opinion about some kind of new car getting announced on investor day or complete nonsense I Think people are going to be highly disappointed. The stock will probably sell off after investor day buy puts on investor day I Hate to say it.

Uh, you know. and and I don't have any shorts on on Tesla right now. it's just the thesis that I have All Right thesis.