Welcome back to another market, open live stream, we're slowly getting the office put back. I still have this amazing amount of hope that at some point, markets are going to go positive again. Who knows, maybe we'll see some beautiful positivity after the federal reserve meeting, which is this week and that's why we've got coupon code down below for the best pricing on the programs on building your long-term wealth, so federal reserve meeting this week. It's obviously going to be a big deal.

Not only is it going to be a big deal, but i'm pretty sure nobody's going to want to be touched in stocks before the federal reserve meeting, because that's literally what happened last time, people think the federal reserve has the shot of doing solid rug, pull at Every single meeting, so basically buying pressure, goes to zero right before the federal reserve meetings. This is really important to know so think about this. If this week, yeah and next week, you've got four of probably the most insane catalyst that we've had since march. You may as well wait before you buy to make some of these moves.

Uh well well, or this is the perfect opportunity right, but at least that's what markets generally feel is well. I may as well wait for some of these catalysts. So what are those big catalysts? Well, uh? The first one is the fomc meeting the federal reserve, we're going to see whether they raise rates uh. You know, 50 basis, points 75, full rug poll.

What kind of comment half rug pull? Who knows right? They keep fricking flip-flopping, they change their mind like crazy in december they're like we're gon na go aggressive, then you get january they're like ah you know it's. Okay, like we're gon na, take things easy. Then we get march and they're like hey we're just gon na. Do 25 basis points we're good we're going to take it easy we're going to be consistent, the very next day after they go 25 and everybody's happy they're like oh, you know, 50 basis points isn't off the table and then all of april they start complaining about How, basically, they want to do a larger hike and kind of front load, the hikes which is a total flip-flop from what they told us previously, especially in february when jerome powell was testifying before congress telling us well we're going to do you know consistent hikes like We did in 2004 and then of course, last week, j pal's, like yeah, but this time's different, so we're gon na change it so constantly freaking changing his mind.

You can't blame people for being, like you know what i'm i'ma, just i'm gon na wait to see what he does, because what he says. I don't trust anymore. Can't blame him. Okay, i can't blame the people who are not trusting j-pal uh, that's obviously coming up.

May 4th, which is going to be very interesting uh, then we've got uh cpi data coming up next week. I believe that's may 12th i'll double check that right now then uh we have victory day may 9th, which will be very interesting because that is when we expect that russia will pretend to declare some form of victory over ukraine and uh and potentially, hopefully, uh carve Out certain regions of of ukraine and then pull everything back and just say all right. We won these areas, we're good mission accomplished. We accomplished we're out of here, who knows - maybe maybe not uh, that does mean things could get worse before that date, as they kind of try to finalize this they're already trying to implement the rupal as a currency in certain areas in eastern ukraine uh and to Try to show look, you know people are now using the rupal here.

I think it's all part of like big victory day messaging, which is oh look. We we, you know uh, we de-nazified the eastern region. In fact, here look at photos of the russian flag flying people using the russian currency and speaking russia, and this that or blah blah blah blah blah whatever. So, that's, obviously a big catalyst.

Then you've got this massive catalyst coming up of also the unemployment rate, which we uh surveys expect. The unemployment rate will fall from 3.6 to 3.5 percent that comes out on may 6th, which is friday. So a lot of things coming up that you've got uh again. You've got the federal reserve on the fourth unemployment on friday, cpi ended next week thursday.

Then you've got uh the victory day on the night. These are some insane freaking catalysts, so uh we'll see exactly how this all evolves, but in the meantime, all of it all of this madness has set us up for a record folks. Take a look at this beautiful beautiful chart here. If you follow me on twitter, at realme, kevin you've already seen this beautiful chart, but look at this folks.

You should be proud that you are a part of this. You are now a part of the worst start to the year for global average indices global. Every single average uh you know, market industry is down for the last two decades and you're part of it. So congratulations, you're winning you have the honor of declaring that you are part of this uh anyway, okay, so uh, we are gon na get some uh.

Some ism data this morning we're gon na get manufacturing data prices, paid data, new orders, deployment data, that's all going to come out at 7 00 a.m. We'll get some manufacturing uh information right about 6 45. It's gon na be our manufacturing pmi. We have uh tomorrow we're gon na get the jolts for job openings.

It's expected to also be over 11.2 million uh job openings, so lots of job openings speaking of job openings. I it's crazy, but i think we have like 600 applications that we're going through we're really like now, hiring very specific, like professionals like people with like finance degrees and accounting degrees and and uh mbas and investment banking is really cool. So it's really exciting. It's really.

You know fun things coming ahead for for, like action plans, not such fun things coming ahead, obviously for the stock market, but you know these: these are the the painful times where uh i personally, like just i, you know, put your head down. I like uh. This is not advice, it's just sort of like what i tell myself uh. I can screw it.

However, you may it's not financial advice for you, because i don't know your situation, even if i did. I couldn't tell you everything, but anyway um. I like just every time you get paid. It's like all right.

I guess i'm just buying a little bit more, it's kind of like dca in on on your pay cycle now, uh, i highly encourage staying out of margin. Highly highly encourage. Staying on a margin is a terrible idea, i'm actually slightly in margin, because i i decided to actually pay all my taxes uh. I was kind of thinking about just kicking the can down the road and, like you know, taking a little bit of like their their penalty, but it's like a cheap, cheap, uh, cheap loan, but um uh yeah.

No, i didn't do that so anyway, but i'll be fine, i'll, be fine, because i've got the piggy bank of real estate. It's like a little piggy bank. You could break and then you'd like pay off your margin. I have extra cash to go, buy the dip in the stock market right uh, so that's kind of what i've been doing.

I still got properties left to sell, though uh it's as usual, things take a little longer than expected, but that's okay. We will get through it all right. What other news do we have? Well, warren buffett bought what 600 billion dollars worth of uh apple in march uh. I think his average price was around 159.

I bought a big chunk like about one and a half mil of apple at like 152, but i already dumped it at like 169. I didn't actually mean to trade it, but um. I did uh so anyway, uh berkshire's meeting. I think it's worth us doing a little recap of berkshire's meeting in case you have not uh yet heard some of the things that went down at berkshire's meeting.

So let's go ahead and do that do a little berkshire recap and then, after the berkshire recap, we'll uh, we'll dive in and uh and look at some of the sticks and some of the other uh. You know notable things going on uh, specifically a lot of fear right now that the 10-year treasury is is really just going to explode higher than a level that we've ever seen before. I, i personally believe this to be highly true uh, it's one of the reasons. I'm very nervous about the real estate market in the short term and what i'm really working towards doing and listen closely if you're, an accredited investor - okay, uh they're - really now is really the time, in my opinion, in the real estate market to start kind of like Prepping cash and, and so that way, whether or not something occurs in the real estate market, which i think is more likely than not you're prepared.

You know back in like 2006 and seven a lot of mismanaged uh funds or or funds with misaligned incentives, we're still buying the top of the freaking market, like total freaking morons. And then, when you know, when the rug got pulled uh, they had no money to go shopping at the bottom. Instead they went bankrupt because they were overexposed and over leveraged at the top, very, very, very dangerous. So uh, you know, stay stay tuned, uh all right.

Now, a little bit of the uh buffett wuffett talk, okay, so uh buff it and bluff it. I can't believe i almost said bluff it all right. Let's talk about warren bluffin puppet blames the massive stimulus during the pandemic as a key reason that we are seeing inflation and now - and i think this is absolutely obvious - he says: look when you print loads of money. Money is going to be worth less than separate from worthless, but worth less okay.

That being said, uh buffett had uh great things to say about jay powell. He said in his book. Jay powell is a hero. I don't think a lot of people in the stock market right now would agree that jay pau is a hero, but to some degree it's important to remember that j-pal kind of stopped a lot of the liquidity printing that was happening uh in in uh.

You know probably around the summer of 2020, but it's it's congress that just kept going and more and more stimulus, uh. So the the monetary side of a stimulus like, for example, the main street lending program or some of the other bailout programs that they were really under used by the fed uh the fed, was actually surprised about it. They're like oh wow, apparently even using these programs. It was, it was more like i think they only bought like 80 billion in bonds or something like that corporate bonds.

Or you know, if that it was just sort of like the sentiment that oh yeah, the fed's gon na come bail us out. But it was really congress. That's like anyway. Munger also talked about risks he's willing to take on investing in a chinese stocks, and i thought this was interesting because personally, i'm like i ain't not going near the chinese stocks because chinese consumers like hell.

No, we save money, we not spend he says uh. The reason that i invested in china is, i get so much better companies at much lower prices and i'm willing to take a little bit more risk to get into better companies with lower prices. Other people might reach the opposite conclusion, and everybody is worried about china now uh or more worried about china now than they were worried about four year 40. Sorry, more than 50 years ago, okay, they're more worried today than they were 50 years ago and see that's really interesting because uh really what what what he's saying is hey like yeah, we realize there are a lot of risks investing in china, but you know it's Creating this wonderful, you know by the dip opportunity, essentially in chinese markets.

Now i personally don't like the idea buying adrs, because you have the de-listing risk from the sec uh, but hey if you had a way to get direct access to chinese stocks. It's not a terrible argument that you know sure short term, maybe they're china's in recession we're getting misleading data right, but maybe it's an opportunity to buy the dip so uh very, very interesting. Uh buffett says that he looks at berkshire as a painting and it's ultimate uh, and it's really an unlimited painting in size that he's got this ever expanding canvas kind of like the uh universe that he gets to paint wherever he wants. I that was kind of interesting uh and uh also somewhat inspiring anyway.

Buffett said uh. Berkshire has been increasing at stake in activision uh. This is a uh merger with uh arbitrage bet that uh microsoft, remember. Microsoft is buying activision blizzard, some folks rumor, that the reason microsoft is buying activision is in part to get the ceo out of activision and try to like clean house a little bit.

I think that happens. A lot at companies like microsoft doesn't necessarily really want activision, but it's like okay. Well, we can like basically buy a wedge deal because it's mismanaged get rid of the management and then profit kind of, in my opinion, like what you're, seeing with twitter uh tbd anyway. Uh, so berkshire in q4 purchased one billion dollars of activision.

They suggest they had no prior knowledge of microsoft plans to buy the company, and that may be true but uh. You know when you read between the lines there. There could be prior knowledge that somebody was gon na buy activision, no prior knowledge. It was gon na be microsoft, but i knew somebody was gon na buy.

Oh well. If it was anybody, but warren buffett, people would be all up in that yin yang, trying to figure out about insider training anyway. In uh, in january, microsoft obviously announced their intentions to my uh activision for 95 bucks, a share it actually closed for 9, 75 and 60 cents on friday. So who knows but then again, the market price is in the risk that these deals won't actually happen right.

This is the same reason why twitter is selling for less than 54.20 uh buffett says they own about nine and a half percent of activision uh. Let's see what else he has uh going back a little bit to inflation. He mentioned that inflation swindles, the bond investor who keeps their cash uh and the person uh who keeps their cash under a mattress and the poor folks, it pretty much swindles, everyone. Inflation is really really bad and we've kind of seen that dialogue change with uh jerome powell as well.

You know, initially it was inflation's transitory. Then it's like well, it's still kind of transitory, but it's less transitory. It's just lasting longer, and now it's like oh gosh. We got ta deal with inflation.

Uh charlie munger had a nice little uh slam on robin hood. He called it an example of a good idea that has gone grossly overdone. Monger said that hidden kickbacks of that business model are quite frankly quote disgusting and he says that uh robin hood is quote unraveling and that bot is getting justice. I mean this is like such a horrible slam on on poor vlad uh, which vlad's kind of gone dark.

You know i'm like hey yo vlad when we gon na do another interview. I think the world wants to hear from you now a lot of people when i say that they're, like oh kevin, why would you interview, i don't know i kind of like interviewing controversial people, because i think it's very interesting. I just like. I wonder what it must be like being vlad right now, uh anyway, so uh at the beginning of the berkshire meeting uh there was a talk uh.

There was talk about that. If something is not a productive asset, it doesn't produce anything uh, then uh, then buffett won't buy it, and this is when he really took the opportunity to slam cryptocurrencies uh. He talked about whether it goes up or down in the next year or five years or ten years. He has no idea, but one thing he knows for sure is that it doesn't produce anything and uh and he wouldn't even buy all the bitcoin in the world.

If it was twenty five dollars, uh, okay, so uh - and let's see here - he also goes on to say i don't think. We've ever made a decision where either one of us uh has either said or been thinking. We should buy or sell based on what the market is going to do or for that matter and what the economy is going to do. We don't know - and this was also really inspiring, because it's like there's, there's so much uh to look at and it's just like.

Oh my gosh, it's like it puts you in a like a dizzy and so uh it's. This is actually one of the reasons. I've gone so heavy on just buying tesla, because i'm like boy, oh boy, it is this. I read a report the other day that uh and i've got a few other companies as well.

But i read a report the other day that this has been the hardest market to time in 50 years and so like, even if you time some parts right like boy, oh boy like what's around the next corner, is just insane uh so anyway uh. So for me, i'm just like all right, well, where's where's, the next opportunity i guess to buy my three faves. You know so uh anyway, uh charlie monger had some uh words uh about uh the you know these calls about removing buffett as chairperson berkshire, because buffett's old blah blah blah - and he said it's like odysseus - would come back from winning the battle of troy, uh and So forth, and some guy would say i don't like the way you were holding your spear when you won the battle like, in other words, talking about like how ridiculous it is. You know, buffett's, helping win the game and people calling for his removal are just obscene.

Uh buffett uh talked about his uh struggle of finding good businesses to invest in and uh and uh he's he's uh. You know they're absolutely searching for deals, but they have to be sizable deals. He says uh we'll pay any price climb, any hills to find businesses, but we actually prefer when they fall into our lap kind of uh. I kind of think that's great.

It reiterates this idea of like having cash on the side of being ready being prepared to be able to make acquisitions, rather than being all in and being on margin, which is just a complete disaster. Uh buffett uh, you know kind of goes back to his confidence on the fed. A little bit talked about short-term volatility, that's fueled by gambling mentality uh. This is something that they do their best to absolutely avoid and uh.

They also bought the dip quite a bit in uh in in q1, uh big stake in accidental petroleum chevron, uh they increased their stakes and and they bought multiple other stocks. Uh and uh really they're buying these as opposed to buying treasuries, which makes sense, because i think treasuries are just getting reamed so uh anyway uh today uh. He talked about the fact that berkshire will likely always be cash rich because he thinks that they are actually better than the banks in extending credit lines to companies in need and really what you do in that case is you're. Like sure, we'll give you a credit line in return for some equity, some cheap equity, uh and then, of course, from the start of 1965 to the end of 2021, uh well end of 2021.

Worth noting i mean things have well all the berkshire's been holding up. Quite well, it's actually been doing very well so anyway, but anyway, from 65 to the end of 2021, the per share market value of berkshire hathaway had an annual compounded return of 20.1 uh. That's nearly double the s, p's return of 10.5 percent, including dividends really incredible. So this gives you a little bit of an update on uh what went down with warren buffett and berkshire hathaway this weekend.

So at the beginning of this live stream, we talked a lot about the catalysts that are coming and i i think it's so critical that we pay attention and realize the 10-year treasury is is really likely to remus. Now a lot of folks - and i see this all the time on twitter they're, like there's no way the upper bound for the ten year - is three percent. Now i've been since january talking about the fact that we're likely to see the ten-year treasury pop ten percent. Ah, sorry, not ten percent uh pop three percent and hit three percent, but probably go above it and uh.

My expectation is we're more likely to see the 10-year treasury sit around three and a half percent. Well now we finally got a little bit of data on this in terms of market expectations. Bloomberg ran a market pulse survey and here's what it says of the 807 participants. The projected 10-year yield will climb above 3.15 percent, peaking only in the third quarter of 2022, while 41 of those surveyed believe the 10-year treasury will actually hit 3.4 up from 2.9 percent, where we are now uh and then a lot of, like anecdotal, quotes about how There's a chance we could go to 3.6.

Some people think it'll be 3.4 blah blah blah blah, but anyway the expectation is. These yields are going to pop off a little bit more, which is really bad for real estate mortgage rates, because, if you think about it, if we get a three and a half percent treasu a ten-year treasure which mortgage rates tend to align with the 10-year stretch, We're gon na see six percent mortgage rates, maybe even like six and a half percent i mean some people think it'll go as high as eight percent. You know consumer sentiment survey. I think that people think that mortgage rates are gon na be eight percent.

In like two years, a lot of people don't have the impression that even as mortgage rates go up like certain areas will just be able to hold their value because sellers aren't selling, and that may be true if, if sellers don't end up selling this real estate Market's not going anywhere, you know it's just gon na it's gon na keep going, which is insane. I don't believe that to be true, i think you're gon na get more panic selling this summer. Oh well, you know i uh one thing's for sure. No matter what happens, i'm not leaving i'm i'm always here for y'all, i know.

Sometimes it goes from live streams to videos, sometimes uh. I make changes in my portfolio, but i'm still here i don't leave. I might change what i'm wearing, but i leave it all right so uh the 10-2 has steepened a little bit, which is actually a good thing. It's a sign that maybe the market is trying to price in a little bit of confidence, potentially for the federal reserve.

In that they're doing the right thing to finally finally be aggressive on inflation 10-2 spread right now is that 24.6 basis points uh. Obviously we want to be as high above zero as possible and we're still historically very, very low. Let's look at the five year break. Even yeah uh, where do you want to send a resume uh like the the best thing to do, is send a uh, a two-minute video to me uh at kevin, meet kevin.com and really.

What you should say is what your work experience is really really important. You have work experience if you don't work experience, it's probably just not gon na work, because we've got like we're. Gon na have such a probably gon na have like eight to ten people in this, like really startup setting where we don't really know exactly what everybody's gon na do yet, and so somebody with work experience is going to know how to fit in they're going to Know how to communicate properly they're going to know you know how to express their concerns or their suggestions. Uh.

We we're not going to have time to teach to teach everyone. So that's that's why we've kind of changed a little bit uh. You know what we're looking for, but yeah like a video like hey here's, what i'm good at here my thoughts uh on how i can help you uh, you know whatever uh, okay, uh five year break even rate, has uh has ticked down again a little bit. This is really good and again is, is also signaling, at least some market confidence that the federal reserve is going to have some power in handling this.

This inflationary issue now i'll go ahead and pull this up, because i want you to see this. It's been very. It's been volatile as as the stock market has been extremely volatile as well, but i want you to pay attention to the trend here on the five-year break, even because i think it's really important. Remember the five-year break even is your tool for the market's expectations of inflation and so uh.

If you uh, i doubt cpi consensus is out yet, but i'll look in a sec. So if you look at this, you know we we have this rise at the bottom. Left of the chart, which was about may of 2021, so right here is may 21 for what it's worth uh. It's very interesting to note that in the summer of 2021, while i was running for the governator position, we actually had very low inflation expectations and that inflation fears actually went down but delta screwed that right delta came in here and then you had omicron uh over Here and then you had war over here, so it's like that constant re-inflating of inflation fears that really made something that was transitory, which it was i mean look at it.

It went that, like our expectations, went down, inflation stabilized, it was right like the fed was right, the first time it just doesn't look like they were right, because when you look, it's like oh crap, well, delta, ruined it omicron ruined it and war ruined it right. But the good news is that, right now, if we just kind of look over here, look at this trend - uh, let's zoom up a little bit there. We go look at this trend that we've got here, we're hitting lower lows, and these are since march right since the beginning of march, so we're hitting lower lows and we're capping out at lower highs. This is not a very you know clear trend right here, but you can.

You can see here that hold on. Let me just remove myself. There you go so here are your lower lows and uh. Here's sort of our downtrend uh uh at the peaks over here, which is really good.

So i like seeing this you know. Last week, we temporarily saw a little bit of this pop-off over here, but we're still trending down, and this is something that i really am paying attention to, because again we we need these inflation expectations to go down. If, if these inflation expectations keep going up, then the federal reserve has to rug, pull us now. Some folks say well kevin we're already getting rug, pulled yep well to some degree.

They they have changed their mind many times uh, but i i personally don't see it as as a rug pull. I was really concerned that we were gon na get paul volcker that we were gon na see like a two percent hike. So a 200 basis point hike, and this was back in january right as uh, the wage price spiral took hold and we saw inflation expectations get unanchored. This is a chart that tells you that inflation expectations are anchored and inflation expectations are actually quite transitory to an event that occurs again.

You know i'm not trying to sound like uh like insensitive here, but but look after after 2020 covent inflation expectations went down after delta inflation expectations went down, uh omicron. We, we really only had like a little short spike over here uh. This is, this is the end of december and january. That's when you had your omicron spike and then obviously war has been just a complete disaster.

Uh, that's that's what's worse than delta and omicron combined right, but it is again trending down. So this is very, very, very good uh, i'm optimistic about this uh. I i can't be blind though, and say that oh, you know we're good. You know margin it up.

Yolo uh, you know it's. I don't know. I mean honestly like if you bought some call options right now on qqq and you thought hey. The market was going to zoom after the fomc meeting might not be very stupid.

That might be very uh. Very lucrative or you'll lose all your money. Remember that when it comes to shorter term call options, you'll either kill it or you'll lose 100 uh. I've done that uh, but uh.

I also don't play with uh. You know out of the money. Uh short-term call options with more than one percent of my portfolio, because that'd be crazy, so anyway, cpi month over month, expectation. Oh, it's actually may 11th cpi month over month.

Expectation is actually only 0.2 percent. Oh my gosh uh, excluding food and energy is 0.4. That's interesting, uh, okay, wow, that kind of implies a drop in food and energy month over month. Huh all right! Well, we'll see, because if inflation comes in soft may 11 and that people relax after the fed and we get victory day, this market's gon na zoom in may we'll see oil crash.

I don't know uh, but i'm pretty optimistic that we're gon na have some uh. Some positive uh positive uh moves so uh all right. Stefano wants you all to know that kevin never reads the chat. Uh real estate mindset says you motivate me to push myself harder.

I recently found success on youtube and own a ton of that. That's awesome. Congratulations! Ministry of truth, yes, we we are getting a ministry of truth by somebody who sings on tick, tock and uh you know is, is all in on steele dossier and uh and and hunter biden's, uh laptop uh. Actually, she tried burying that story anyway, we're not trying to get political.

Oh, we got a bell and a potential ban of russian energy out of the eu some reports they may be imminent, maybe some proposals tomorrow we have to see how much is oil. How much is natural gas? I will tell you this that it is buying that stuff uh other markets are buying at considerable discount uh, but it does matter to me that i would have thought that oil would be dead all right. Let's see what happens here so qqq is actually turning a little positive right now, uh the i look. These are some great freaking prices.

Okay, like i don't know about you, but some of these things just look like great prices. Let's take a look here so uh activision blizzard, where is activation relationship 77 bucks? What isn't that deal going through at 95, like dude? That's a better deal than the the twitter one yeah dude! That's a 19 discount right now holy moly i'll write that one down 19 discount very interesting, then you've got wow beachbody's, a dollar and 60 cents teddy stock. Let's see here, lowe's 199 for lowe's interesting uwm mortgage companies only 3.70 starbucks 75. That thing's always been over a hundred bucks.

Well, that's not true, but you know before the pandemic and then and then right after the pandemic. Cheesecake 37 bucks, simon property group, 118 uh simon property group. It was such a steal during the depths of the pandemic. Uh costco 534 wow look at it.

I was so tempted to buy costco and i'm like the problem with costco is it keeps skyrocketing? I can't buy something that keeps skyrocketing, and so it touched 600 and look at that now it's back uh. It's it's already down about ten percent off of that uh, actually a little bit more than ten percent. That's quite interesting! That is green! Today, though uh, let's see like what's tesla today, isn't it like uh 850 or something like that? Let's see here, tesla yeah, look at that 858 nicely below that 880 line here, uh, let's see spirit, airlines, 21 bucks. What the heck happened with spirit, let's find out here, see if we got uh because the other airlines have been killing it.

So, let's try to figure it out. Well, you're, not saving money on spirit stock. I guess you are, if you're a buyer uh all right. So what do we get this morning? Spirit, airlines board says jetblue offer not superior.

Oh, that's why they are reiterating their support for merging with frontier instead of jetblue. Remember jetblue really wanted to buy them at premium. Uh, probably honestly, to get the jets like jetblue needs more jets, so they can charge. People more well fly more people anyway, uh okay, so that explains why spirit's, having a little bit of a disaster here, i could say, ran after the uh the announcement, the offer announcement amazon down again about two percent along with rivian right there at about two percent Matterport five dollars and sixty three cents, a firm, was at twenty eight dollars: uh roku.

Ninety one dollars, tattooed chef under eight dollars: 787 etsy 91. You know etsy's just another one where i'm just like. Oh my gosh hold on: let's: let's do a quick little look together here. Shall we because remember the credit card companies were not seeing a slowdown in ecom spend but uh everybody's just pooping on e-com, because it's a consumer, discretionary uh and it's fine.

I mean i've been pooping on uh, you know ecom and consumer discretionary for three months. That's why the only ecom or a consumer discretionary i own is tesla, but that's because i think it's a more of a premium. Um uh! You know consumer discretionary anyway, eps of four dollars expected for etsy for 2022. at 90.

What is it? 93 bucks divided by 3.94 cents, roughly it's selling for 23.6 times 2022 earnings, that's not so horrible. I made a video about visa. Last week we talked a lot about visa. Where were you somebody's asking about visa and then the growth rate for etsy is expected to be about? I would say an average of about for the next four years, probably about 17 percent and then gon na slow down.

Probably thereafter, but that's that's actually very good. I mean you're you're near a one on the peg. There uh, let's see, lemonade, yeah lemonade boy, oh boy. What happened? What happened here so lemonade? 20, 71 cents tesla sinking a little bit down 1.9 percent and how's our our indices.

Doing oh, we had a little bit of that by the dip right there at open, but uh slightly rotating down, now again, not surprising, given the catalyst that we have coming over over the next two weeks. For us to see. Some softness here makes me wonder, though, what happened to blue apron? Oh some pre-market pump and dumping huh hate that kind of stuff. It's.

I guess an easy way for some people to make money. That's bad! That's just bad docusign! Where's docusign! Well, how do they do it? I i'm pretty sure they're still losing money, though wait. Look here at least they're, not a fraud like tell a dog. Oh oh, i said it.

Oh, is that defamatory! Well, it has to do with your impairment that they didn't explain. So it's true, but then again i guess we don't know if that's fraudulent, just it's just it's fishy yup now docusign still does not have profitability. Maybe next year they'll be profitable at two dollars of eps, which that's next year. So you still got another year to go through this crap.

What about pins? You know because pins actually decent earnings, but one of the things that i'm concerned about with pinterest. Is you uh? You have them complaining, a lot about google and the search engines because they're getting less impressions from search now, so they're monetizing their users better. But if you don't get new users, it's a problem, but they do have 50 cents of uh of earnings this year. So you're literally paying 10 times, 20.

22 earnings. No sorry, that's not true! Uh. 56. Sorry, i did the math wrong.

No, you! Actually, you know you're still paying you're still paying 40 times. Oh yeah, no. Okay. That makes a lot more sense because they're 20 bucks divided by 54 cents, 37x.

That's too expensive for pins, see at that point 37 times 2022 i'd rather be buying etsy at 23.6 times 2022 similar projected growth rates, but not not. If you read that uh that earnings call the disaster now, redfin is going to have redfin's going to be underweight uh or under fire or whatever, because of uh how much real estate they hold uh in the event that there's a slowdown in the real estate market. Qqq now almost down a full percent, let's go give us better discounts so so so uh. Thank you.

So much enrique look forward to seeing you in the courses they're all about building long-term wealth. I really think that a a big one that almost all you all in the stock market uh might be thinking to yourself, like. Ah, you know real estate for me honestly, you go through that course, and you see how, instead of like hoping you make money uh, you can guarantee uh yourself that that you're making money when you go buy deals in real estate. If you do it the right way, so that's why a lot of people bundle the stocks in psychology, money group and the real estate investing course which, what's also cool with the real estate.

Investing course is when people find a deal and they submit it. They're, like hey, i wrote an offer on this or whatever we go through it in the course member live streams. Usually, we do once a day at one a day and we can sort of give pointers to like do this, not that in a house which is kind of cool. You know some deals.

I love some deals, i'm like. Why are you buying this like run away? Some people skip the lectures uh, let's see here. What is the worst stock market you've participated in uh yeah. Well, i mean, i still think the absolute bloodiest uh with the rapidness that we've seen was march of 2020.

That was a rapid, rapid sell-off. It was very short-lived, though it was very different from 2007 uh and eight, where you really had this long-term decline. You had a lot of bear market rallies, which is a lot more similar to what we're seeing now uh. So you know, i guess it depends on the time frame like march, felt a lot worse because you're just seeing the indices all go down, seven or eight percent a day uh.

You know now we're it's just. It feels like a slow bleed out of the entire market kind of wild uh. It's a lot more uh a lot more time. Involvement, anywho, hey t-doc's, actually up a little bit.

So all right, let's see what the suits are saying: exp is at exp what 13 holy crap expi yeah and right now i only own three stocks: goog trade desk and tesla in case anyone's wondering, but anyway exp they are projecting 62 cents of earnings. It's a better deal than pinterest 13.54 divided by 0.62 yeah that's 22 times, and this company is projecting to grow at 30 to 40 percent holy crap. That's very interesting, so they're selling for 21 x 20. I mean they're selling for a peg ratio of 0.5 wow.

That's fascinating. That is very fascinating. Okay, i don't know anything about finicco, whatever you're asking about there. Okay, so oh wow look at newegg! This was a classic like momentum story here.

Look at that insanity. You know. It'd also be kind of interesting to see how this one's doing in terms of what they bring to the bottom line, newark. So new egg new egg lasts 12 months.

Why is it so complicated to read? I have no idea. There are no projections. I have no projections or anyway never mind fine, then fine, all right. So what else here embraer that's another one! That's growing uh! It's the brazilian aircraft manufacturer and uh yeah eps a little on the low side, though.

Actually it's quite a bit on the low side. So that's less exciting than some of the other ops. I mean it's 12 cents. Yeah i mean that's.

It's wow, that's shocking! That's super low! Okay! Then visa 209. I like them at 180., uh they'll, probably be back there. So, okay tattooed chef, mp materials, wow mp's, just like lost almost half here in just this last like month, because they were at 65. I think there for a while, that's quite wild, especially as a materials play to see mp materials.

Uh rotate like that pound tier 10 bucks harley had some good earnings harley davidson. Oh look at that. Tesla just went positive, a crazy crazy market adobe's another one that i find interesting, but you know let me pull up it over here, so adobe you're. Looking at 13.68 times on, you know, 400 bucks, basically uh 13.66 dollars see that's still selling for 29 times gross or 20, something in real estate 29 times gross net earnings, eps uh and uh they're, only growing at like 14, so you're, paying like a two peg Over here i'm much less interested in that uh cloudflare at 89 bucks i mean cloudflare is very expensive, but if you want to get into cyber security 89 bucks, i mean - i think the low on that thing is like 84 bucks here recently yeah, but but don't Do like a p e ratio calc on them, because it's just went from infinite to a lot yeah uh roku at 95.

Bucks remember roku, is an to some degree in advertising play uh problem, though with roku is they're expected to lose money in 2022 and three. I just i can't bring myself to buy money losing companies right now. I'd rather buy like shopify, like some of the e-com stores. In fact, shop just reported it'd be interesting to kind of go through theirs.

Didn't they. Let me see shopify uh, let's see earnings earnings. Oh no, no shopify reports this week may 5., i'm thinking of a different company uh, but anyway, they're projecting for 2022 earnings of about 2.84 cents. Oh hold on.

Let's see what they're complaining about cme hq with breaking news. Our april final read on the s p global manufacturing, pmi, formerly known as the market pmis, not to be confused with ism pmis coming out at the top of the hour expecting 59.7. Well. The final read moves down a bit from 59.7 to 59.2, but it is still a decent read and it is the highest rate since 60.7 in september.

Okay um, i just have to say, never mind on shopify they're expecting you know three to four dollars of earnings. That's terrible for a 428 stock. I mean you're paying 150 times for this company at 30 growth i mean you're, paying like a five peg. This is terrible.

Never mind like etsy is a better deal. Looking at that sort of like growth to uh uh to valuation metric, that's insane uh, wow, okay, yeah! No thanks! I mean facebook's, probably a much better deal. Let's look at uh facebook for the gigs and i don't even really like facebook. I mean mark zuckerberg thinks i'm gon na buy expensive, closing and clothing in the metaverse.

I listened to him say that uh and i'm like you're out of your freaking mind if you think i'm buying expensive clothing in the metaverse get ready for naked metaverse. So facebook's only selling for uh 14.6 times 2022.. You know, but the growth is tbd right. I mean it.

Maybe eight percent this year - 14 15 percent in the next years. If they pull anything off of the metaverse, i don't know i just it's. Certainly a better valuation on some of these others, but the growth is the question. Oh, you know another good one to look at might be square.

Let's see because they've come down so much in like paypal, although paypal's last earnings call was just a crap show. So bad so google at 22.87, oh google's, only going for 18.4 times - 20 22 earnings. Oh, i really like that, especially ah, but then again this year, they're actually expecting that's not so good they're expecting to contract a little bit and then get back to about 15 percent growth, so you're still spending a little bit of a multiple there on the growth Uh, okay: what's let's see here problem with roblox, i'm pretty sure is they don't make money and again if the company doesn't make money they're, just like super risky in this market? That's not to say the stock can't go up. It's just to say super risky, because this market is like anything with a negative on that eps sell.

Look at that what a volatile market we went negative like almost a percent there on the qqq. Now we're actually going positive again here. Quite fascinating steel, dynamic, yeah, they're rumored to be the uh cyber truck steel supplier. I imagine that steel dynamic is uh.

You know just one of uh but uh, oh what wow holy crap uh. This is very interesting uh, so that they're expecting some massive freaking contract. Here in 2022 uh, i really have to understand this company because it says it's supposed to grow at twenty percent this year, but next year, negative twenty percent negative, seven percent thereafter flat in 2025 uh, but they've got 19 dollars of earnings right now on a company. That's trading for like 80 bucks, which is like a four in terms of price to earnings, but the growth is like that's a major contracting coming up here in the next few years i mean it's, not a growth company right.

I'd really have to know what the he double hockey sticks is going on at that company to um to even remotely want to touch it uh. I do wonder if dave and busters is back to profitable. Let's see here played busters, oh um, that's also! Oh yeah. Okay, so dave busters, it's actually not bad uh dave and buster's, expecting uh, three dollars and 46 cents right now of uh of earnings, dave and excuse me dave and buster's.

That means is selling for roughly 13x 2022 and going forward the growth model projects a good boost this year, but after that, you're probably selling for about or you're probably going about 10 growth, so you're really doing a peg of about one there, which is not terrible. That's not quite terrible, very interesting, okay cool, so that's dave and buster's very thinly traded, though you could see that i mean how many shares are we trading here? Look at that. Some of these were trading like 139 shares. In a minute i mean that's like nothing very, very, very thinly, traded amd yeah.

You know it actually would be interesting to kind of compare amd to nvidia a little bit. Oh look at that empty turn. Another way, all right, let's see what we got here so amd okay, so amd's got a four on eps for 2022. 85 divided by four that puts amd at about 21 times and if we uh look at their growth this year, they've got a big growth expected.

You know somewhere around 45 percent, but it's probably going to average out to about 12 later. So, let's write that down pretty sure nvidia kicks their butt on this net margin by the way at amd is about 25. Pretty sure nvidia kills him on this yeah see. Nvidia has a net margin of about 41.

That's like way way way way way: better uh really really really good dude stefano bro, i can't read every freaking message and i've read like six of yours chill out. Bro. All right so uh, okay, so it's like when i'm in the middle of talking people are trying to talk over me. It's like shut the f up uh.

You can leave your question there. If i see it i'll see it uh anyway, nvidia so um nvidia is five point: six nine percent or sorry uh dollars for eps, so they're selling for 184, divided by 5.69 they're selling for about 32 times, but their margins so much better. Uh they're still a little a little pricey for the market right now. The way it is uh 32.3 times i sold my nvidia sadly, but uh also expecting about 30 this year and then probably gon na average out to what maybe 12 also uh in terms of growth so big year this year, but but the the next year's they're.

After relax a little bit uh, so let's see here uh okay, so we answered the okay. We took care of this all right, so markets like all over the place. I mean i've seen tesla like flip between green and red. Like probably six times now, it's pretty wild uh, let's see here, okay, the next thing that we want to pay attention to comes out in about six minutes in about six minutes, we're going to get multiple numbers.

So what we're gon na get i'll read it out to you? Okay, so we got the global manufacturing which came in at a little bit of a miss, but now we're gon na get construction. I spending manufacturing ism prices paid. That's going to be a big one. New orders and employment, so i'm kind of excited about that dave, cross, funny.

Uh, all right doesn't pe account for margin, though uh yeah yeah, i mean i, i it the way i i don't. I don't try to look at it at both of them together. I try to look at them separately, so the way i like to go is give me my peg ratio. What's what's sort of the growth per the valuation that i'm getting right, uh and and then how efficient is the company as a sec, separate question right because the higher margins, the company, has likely the more of a competitive advantage they have in the market? So if you could get a company with a great valuation with higher margin, it's a sign that the company's probably doing things really well, where their customers love them right, i mean tesla for an automotive manufacturer, really high margins, especially gross margins.

You know, net margins will come uh, but but even in the auto space, very very high gross margins uh an extremely high growth rate. This this is good, so you get this wonderful marriage here, another one like that. It's a great question by the way another one like that is end phase. So i really like end phase somebody.

I had a dream that somebody wanted to start an end phase competitor with me and that we were going to get into the business of of like manufacturing batteries and selling them, because there's such a shortage of them right now. It actually sounds like a great idea. Uh, you know we got to quantum scape it up over here, but uh, maybe in the future, so um end phase. End phase is a company that you know they have a net margin of somewhere kind of closer to like the amd level somewhere around that 23 24, but for actually making inverters and like battery packs in in that field, it's actually pretty decent uh and they're growing.

You know anywhere between probably an average about 30 25 to 30 percent over the next four years. They're uh at 161 bucks right now, a little pricey, divided by 352. selling for about 45 times. It's one of the reasons i don't own them right now and i think people can spend less on their homes, but i really like them in terms of their their margin, competitiveness.

Just not the valuation right now see you in the metaverse swedish. What is this? Oh yeah, so there was a flash crash this morning for about five minutes. One of the the indices crashed like five percent - i'm sorry, eight percent in in sweden and then rebounded to where i think it was only down like one percent uh towards the end of the day, their trading day, yeah uh kind of fascinating to see people buy The dip on uh, i mean uh, you know like tdoc over here again, it's not a company that i would touch with a 10 foot pole. I think i think it's a plague of a company, but whatever uh like let's look at wayfair.

Okay, this. This is not a horrible company at all uh. You know people are gon na, be spending less on like furniture and crap at home and stuff right now and so they're not actually expected to grow in uh 2022 much like 1.5 percent. That may be back to 12, but also negative earnings.

I can't touch it greetings from argentina thinking about buying one of your courses. How do i contact you having trouble taking money out of my country to pay? You know uh. The best thing probably would be to uh and we're a little behind on emails, but uh. We should be caught up to emails today, uh so uh.

You know, but probably the best thing you could do is you could just like pay like crypto like btc, or something like that and uh. We can just like email, you a wallet or something like that and then and then you know get back to you, but just just a heads up like if you're waiting for a reply, an email, it's gon na, be a little delayed right now, because i had Two people working emails and now i have nobody working emails, but but i've reassigned, uh, someone uh to help me and uh. You know i'm in there working on it too, but it's uh. It's a lot so we'll get there anyway uh, i have to say: okay, we got numbers coming out in about 90 seconds so 90 seconds for uh for numbers here, uh coming out, so i'm really excited about that.

Ooh chargepoint would be interesting to look at yeah. So i'm really excited i mean over the last like the last a week ago today i would have never imagined where i would be today or just a week later, like i mean uh some of the partnerships, i a massive partnership that we we've created as as Part of our uh, our launch uh hiring plans office plans, expansion, plans. I mean it's like we're. Gon na have like a huge like meet kevin 2.0 in in the next like six months, and then we're not going to change the content.

Obviously, you're still going to have so you know similar content, but but just in terms of like next level, uh business stuff. It's it's going to be really really cool. If you want to stay tuned for updates on that by the way make sure you go to medkkevin.com series, a drop, your email in there metkevin.com series a make sure to check the box. If you're an accredited investor or not, you know to take a little range in terms of what what you'd ever consider uh, potentially investing in the future, but anyway uh that um no emails have gone out on the series a thing yet.

So if you're, like i put my email in, i haven't, heard anything yeah because i haven't sent anything there yet just saying stay tuned: okay, uh! We are 10 seconds away from numbers. Construction spending isn't manufacturing prices paid everything. Let's see how the qq okay! Here we go, price is paid, it's a miss. Yes, that's really good uh.

The survey was 87.4, it came in at 84.6. That's a miss on prices paid, yes, uh new orders shrunk a little bit. The survey was for 54.1. We came in at 53.5.

Ism employment came in or the expectation was, 55 came in at 50.9. That's almost in that contraction area. You get a number under 50. uh.

I think they call these like the regression models. You get a number under 50. You get construction spending month over month. The expectation was point eight percent month over month, which is like nine point.

Six percent year over year or annualized right came in at point one percent you're about to see cnbc. I guarantee you they're gon na they're gon na pop it up and and we're gon na, have the breaking news here just to say i guess not. I know they're gon na do david really anyway, that's insane but hey. We beat him to it by miles here, but uh.

That's pretty crazy, uh that uh that priceless paid number it coming in at a good, miss of almost three points. There is really good and that hopefully reiterates uh or or gives us a little bit of optimism.