Hey everyone me kevin here, so obviously the market's a disaster i'm just hopping on a plane. Obviously, now i can have a market closing live today. However, i wanted to talk about a few things. First, this is the largest downtrend that we've now seen over these last five months, since the great financial crisis bitcoin is at an 11 month low.

The whole terror disaster this morning did not help. If you did not yet watch my video on tara make sure to go to meet crypto uh. You can also see my community post on this channel and you can see everything that i think about it. There are a lot of rumors and speculations that take that even to the next level, but that gives you a really good baseline about the fundamentals.

That'll help you out and then you can kind of layer the speculation on top of that uh bitcoin, obviously falling. Because of or at least in part terra, but also macro right, we've been through five months of hell. We've now broken every level of support and there's really this level of malaise in the markets. To where you know, markets are bad when people who don't usually talk about the markets daily, are texting you or calling going hey uh what the f is going on like, even when i call jpm to execute trades, because i'm still trading and of course, i, while Trading or investing uh, i still send all those alerts to everyone in the stocks and psychology, money group and, of course, real estate, lectures and new videos coming out, because we've got a lot of work to do for real estate towards the end of the year.

Remember, there's a coupon code expiring for that in five days. Uh that's coming up pretty soon here would be the largest price increase ever and that kind of matches the largest inflation. We've got right now, which we'll talk a little bit more about that in just a moment, but uh. More importantly, i want to focus on some of these these additional uh pieces of data.

Here, oh uh, i was going to say when i talked to jp morgan. They're, like yeah um, this sucks, like they're, not having any happy phone calls with clients right now like nobody's winning the people who are winning or are people who are just cash cash. That's the only thing that wins, uh, even treasuries, uh yeah. You know we see the yields going down on treasuries right now, so there's some sign that people are trying to jump into treasuries for safety, but we see those things get sold off every time they run so there's really no safety.

It feels like other than cash. Uh and again, i think - and i've mentioned this a million times, so i'm not gon na really belabor the point but bottom line if you're in cash and the only thing you're buying with it are stocks that are going down, you're actually gaining purchasing power, not losing It to inflation so ignore those people who are like. Oh cash, is charged. It loses money to inflation, dude, no, no, it doesn't nobody's coming to my bank account taking it away like no that's wrong.

It's your. Your money loses purchasing power. If you're buying airline tickets, though oh anyway, okay, so here's some facts to know about today. So far, retail investors are still buying right.

Now, thursday, we had 2.58 billion dollars of inflows. However, we're starting to see some signs of cracking the inflows are no longer as robust the average retail investor is now down 28 over the last five months, uh their their net port. I'm sorry, the average retail investors current portfolio is out of the money. 28.

That means you're upside down. 28 is the average retail investor uh. We were down as far as 31 during march of 2020, but you know during covert that happened in two weeks now. It's happened over five months and it just i almost kind of preferred the the two weeks, because it was just a lot quicker.

It was less painful for less long right, anyway, retail capitulate a capitulation that this is a really important point that you want to pay attention to usually occur statistically according to vandertride after five days of negative breath. Negative breath is, when you have more cell orders than you have buy, orders more shares being sold than bias. That's negative breadth not to be confused with like meat breath. Anyway, we are now coming on our third day in a row of negative breath.

That means, potentially tomorrow or friday, could be that fifth day, which then can lead to retail capitulation, and that could be one of the sharpest drops right now. Uh most retail traders are still buying towards the end of the day. Institutions seem to be buying or selling at the beginning of the day. Retail is focused on buying calls and institutions are buying, puts all the calls i bought have gotten destroyed recently, of course.

Obviously, in the past, i've done well with calls, but not recently uh 10-year treasury. We said that following we already talked about that and uh, what's what's really now magnifying, this general malaise in the market is the fear that the fed's going to have to rug, pull us that we are now seeing service inflation and inflation's not coming down as quickly As hoped or expected, and that's a problem because when airline tickets go up 18 to 20 per month over and over and over again at some point, you just need to get people to stop spending money and to prevent a stagflationary environment and so or potentially even Create it geez that'd, be the worst uh, and what do you end up with there uh, potentially an intermediate fed rate hike? I don't think that's going to happen, but the market is now pricing that in especially since uh this morning, jim cramer started yapping about the idea that uh, we could have an intermediate rate hike that they just need a rug pulse basically and go for a 100 Basis point hike or whatever i don't expect that to happen, but if we get ugly ppi tomorrow producer price inflation and then we get bad consumer expectations on friday, it's gon na suck sounds like uh it's time for me to go, but anyway look i'm gon na Whisper in over here no flight to safety. Well, there is no safety right now other than cash. There's so much malaise that the only thing that i can say that keeps me like somewhat sane is buying a little bit, because every time you buy a little bit you're, not likely good luck, everybody! This does suck it's a horrible time and i'm sorry i wish you all the best.

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