You know, folks, i got ta be honest with you. There are a lot of freaking bears out there right now in this video we're gon na talk about those bears, because there's a lot to look at here, and i want to talk about in order one. What some of the bears are saying right now in terms of the odds of a recession, then i want to look at some things that have happened, which we're really not paying attention to. I think as much as we should especially the good old doomberg terminal, okay and then we're going to talk about some indicators ahead, because these are pretty dang important, now, first happy easter.

Second, goldman sachs goldman sachs is talking about the odds of a recession being at about 35. They have one of the highest recession estimates right now. Bloomberg economists see the odds of a recession at about 27 and a half percent up from 20 a month ago, due to, of course, cpi expected to be 5.7 by the end of the year and, of course, the odds that will hit a soft landing being very Difficult uh, in fact that's what the fed wants is a soft landing, and if we look all the way back to world war ii out of 14 tightening cycles, we had a recession 11 times out of 14 times within two years. That's that's! Not a good ratio! Okay, i mean, if we just if we like ratios for a moment.

We just divide that. Okay, that means 78.5 of tightening cycles ended up in a recession, which means really got about a 21 and a half ish percent chance of not, but what's actually interesting is, if you look more towards recent history like the last 40 years, the odds are a lot Better, in fact, we had a tightening cycle in the mid 80s, specifically ending in 1984 and a tightening cycle in 1995, and both of those did not end in a recession. Of course, the great recession was a recession and then the copper pandemic was a recession. But if you look at like the 80s and 90s yeah early 80s, we had a recession because we have paul volcker.

But how did we have a soft landing in 84 and in 95 and then, of course, we had the housing bubble, which was insane and then we had a pandemic, which was insane, but if you take out pandemic and housing bubble up for a moment, the odds Are actually a whole lot better for a soft landing more recently, which is kind of interesting now i know usually when i say stuff like this, people are like kevin kevin you're, just trying to shield the market, because now you're invested so you're, looking at everything with Rose-Colored glasses, look, the truth is i just want to be ahead of stuff, like i feel like i turned a little bearish before most people turn bearish. I wish i turned bearish even sooner when everybody was still at the party right, but i feel, like i turned bearish before everybody else stated now. I feel like i'm kind of turning a little bit more optimistic before everybody else is and and for me that tends to be a good buy time which i'll give some stock. You know things and i can't say, suggestions because i can't make recommendations but i'll talk about some stocks in just a moment.

The only thing that i'm showing in in this video are well, in my opinion, facts and, of course, ftx and, of course, the coupon that expires in three days for my programs on building your wealth link down below which you're long-term investing focused, especially on real estate. Investing because, quite frankly, if you want to get into real estate investing, especially if this market dips you'll be prepared, use that coupon code, if you've, never even thought about getting into real estate, investing zero to millionaire real estate. Investing, i guarantee it. You'll love me, and it anyway of course, also uh.

I like using btc more as my futures right now uh, and so i i look a lot at the bitcoin more so than i look at indice futures because i actually find it to be a little bit more accurate. I'm hoping that this is a little bit indicative of a of a nice soft smooth opening for markets this week, but we'll see, there's a lot of fear and fud. We got earnings coming up this week. We got tesla coming up, so i think one of the useful things to do now.

Uh and of course this is ftx so make sure to check out ftx via the link down below use code meet kev, but i just want you to consider for a moment. Some of the positive catalysts versus the negative catalyst that we have right now, uh and uh, and some of the things that have happened and have not happened. And then let's look at some forward in leading data right. So bad.

We had an inverted yield curve for like 36 hours on april 1st, it was like a cruel april fool's day, joke that's a bad catalyst, but it's already uninverted. The 10-year yield is rising like crazy, which is not good so much for housing, but can actually be a sign of a growing economy. That's a good thing to some degree, just not great for housing. Ppi was a disaster.

The producer price index like core, was a disaster. Everything was a disaster by ppi, but look at some of these other things. We had university of michigan consumer sentiment index flat inflation expectations, not having unanchored inflation expectations is a huge deal now think about that. For a moment, in the 70s, the late 70s, we had unanchored inflation expectations.

That means people thought inflation was going to run away like crazy. That's why we got paul volcker. We don't have that right now, and so the fed does not have to rug pull us. They made that clear over the last few months sure we might get 25 or 50 bp, who freaking cares we're not going to get that that paul, volcker rugged poland's at least that's not the expectation right now as long as this data keeps coming in like this.

On top of that sentiment jumped at the fastest pace since january, which is crazy, given that we're now in a war, then you've got uh core cpi, because the used car indices falling like crazy. This is amazing, you're, seeing a rotation to services and away from goods which actually helps you pause, some of that goods inflation, we're seeing retail large lodging and travel up like crazy, seven to ten percent. I mean people are spending money like there's no, tomorrow on services, travel delta, same thing, guiding higher jpm guiding for higher incomes and higher inflows into the stock market. In fact, they've seen more money flow into their funds uh so far this year, then they were actually expecting to, even though the market's bad they're still seeing inflows.

People are spending more money on their credit cards. Their balances are trending up not down. These are the opposite of things that we were expecting like. These were the worst things that could happen in january.

Was wage price spiral not seeing that none of the jobs report feb march april? None of the jobs reports are now suggesting wage price spiral and the original wage price spiral from january got revised away like there was a wage price spiral in january, but then they revised it away, which sometimes makes you wonder if just like is the data crooked Or, or did they just realize, like? Oh no crap, we made a mistake anyway uh, so those are all. These are all really really good things. The 10-2 inverted yield curve is not inverted anymore. It's steepening five-year break evens are stable, uh, they're, they're elevated, which is an indicator of higher inflation expected, but they're, not as high as they were.

They've come down, which is a good thing. Margin. Debt in stocks is down 14.5 percent from the highs in october. This means people are actually paying down their debts.

This is good so so far, i think we have more good news here than bad news, and if we look ahead at some of the leading indicators, excess demand for goods is waning. Based on freight activity. Freight activity is starting to slow. Now, what's not slowing is those of you interested in some sweet services like those courses on building your wealth again link down below coupon expiring three days, and i know regularly there's a coupon that expires, but you lock in the best price.

If you check out now, because if you look next time and it's like crap - it's 100 bucks more well, that costs you 100 bucks. More then and remember you could be part of me as i come up with a lot of this data in our private course. Member live streams every day that the market is open now, with freight activity we're starting to see freight activity slow, this usually comes before lagging indicators, start to come down like consumer prices or ppi. In fact, sometimes it could take as long as eight months for cpi to actually catch up, which is insane on top of that we're actually seeing rail card loading starting to fall.

They've been negative year over year on average, the last four months. These are leading indicators that mean we're probably seeing a lot less consumer like product demand going forward now, you're also going to see the wealth effect take in you know the more you have the wealth effect uh removed from, let's say the real estate market. Less people spend usually on uh on goods and hopefully people keep spending to some degree. So we don't have a recession right.

So there's this weird balance. Obviously, if people move to services, they spend less on stuff which helps with supply chains and if they spend less because of higher prices, inflation or even commodity prices like gas, that's good too see. Usually we spend about 32 percent on goods and 68 on services. Recently, we've been spending 35 on goods, and so we could rotate back to sort of this old ratio and so for me looking forward, i'm really - and i believe this since the beginning of the year - i'm really thinking services.

Like honestly, i know people get mad at me for saying this and it's a huge fud cycle, but things like disney travel. I don't really like the airlines so much, but but it's travel related services advertising. These could be really neat places to be. I think tesla is going to continue to have demand for, for those that's sort of a more mid to luxury good, but less nike lulu target under armour, potentially even apple right.

These are just things i'm thinking. In top of my mind, i i we are seeing. We are seeing some demand slowing for goods, but not services, which is good because that could keep us out of a recession, but we got to keep an eye on this, these these sort of indicators. So i want you to ask yourself this: all the you know, funds and economists are like.

Oh, no, the odds of recession are going up. Oh no, everything looks so bad, but wait a minute when you actually look at the actual facts. When you look at the bond market, the steepening uh 10 2 curve, when you look at the falling five-year break, even falling margin. When you look at the fact that more recently, we tend to have more soft landings and the fact that we're starting to see goods wane and freight and rail wane, which can show up in cpi towards the end of this year and services, are still booming.

So the consumer's still spending to keep us out of a recession, but the inflationary things are starting to soften it's an early sign that you want to pay attention to so anyway, thanks so much for watching. I appreciate you check out the programs, i'm building your wealth down below and, of course, ftx. Thank you so much to ftx for sponsoring this video thanks, bye.