Folks Bloomberg is back at it again. Bloomberg's Lou Wang Just posted a pretty fascinating piece on how potentially the market rally that we're seeing is actually being propped up by none other than the Bears. Listen to this: Lou Wang suggests that Skeptics and bears are really what's keeping this stock market rally going. They say quote rarely.

Has the consensus been more uniformly bearish than it is now. In fact, investors are sitting with the lowest allocation to United States Stocks in almost two decades. Listen to that. two decades, we are at the lowest allocation to U.S Stocks into decades.

I'll say it again, decades. and U.S Investors have held on to cash since the longest stretch since the.com crash, which also happened to have been about two decades ago. Why? Well, obviously, why not? The banking system is stressed. we have high yields on treasuries and high yields on savings deposits.

We have recessionary warnings all over the place suggesting that the depth of the recession via the inverted yield curve is still substantially ahead of us. And those of us who study the inverted yield curve know that the bond market is giving us a flashing red warning sign that it is not the inverting of the yield curve. That is painful. but it is indeed the re-stepening that will lead to an earnings recession and crash us all and leave us all buried into a dungeon.

But when everyone is leaning one way, it's not a surprise that the market is leaning the other way. The S P 500 a year to date is up seven percent. some actively managed ETFs that won't be mentioned are up 30 to 40 percent. Near to date, the NASDAQ is up 23 year to date.

Goldman Sachs Literally wrote in an investment piece that there are frankly quote zero Bulls out there right now and that 85 percent of respondents to their survey 85 were either bearish or neutral. And to those folks, I have nothing to say other than make sure to get life insurance in as little as five minutes, you darn bears. And yes, I am paid to say that you can get life insurance and as little as five minutes by going to Metcaven.com Life Right next to the link where you can get 12 free stocks for Weeble at Met Kevin.com Weeble Right next to the link where you can get 69 off by using the CPI coupon code which will expire April 12th on the day of CPI and you'll get the latest best price guarantee going forward. Now continuing on, we must talk about Bank of America's Money Manager survey.

Bank of America's Money Manager survey sees the allocation to United States stocks at an 18-year low. Listen to this: Goldman Sachs sees zero Bulls out there Money Manager surveys at Bank of America 18 year low. We have the longest stretch of holding cash since the.com era and we are now deemed uniformly bearish. And maybe the Bears are right.

Of course, I'll be responding to this, but consider this. of the previous 14 bear markets, there have only been two times that the S P 500 has had back-to-back quarterly gains. We just had our first quarter gain of seven percent. That means we have a 2 in 14 chance according to history of actually ending this quarter green for the S P 500 and the only times we've had two back-to-back S P 500 quarterly gains in a bear Market were in 1981 and 1938..

the only other explanation might be that maybe the bear Market is over and we're in an official new bull market. After all, the NASDAQ climbing 20 since the beginning of the year has officially entered the NASDAQ into a new bull market. However, maybe the Bears are more right that the earnings recession and the bottom of the market is still ahead of us. after all, the start of a recession is typically when stocks bottom and recessions generally don't don't happen until the yields curve re-inverts.

that is, it goes to uninverted. Also, we typically don't see the bottom of a stock market until about six months before earnings bottom out, and usually when the Federal Reserve pivots, it's actually a sign that the market has more pain ahead of us. Now, of course, I have countered the pivot argument many a time before. you could just type into YouTube meet Kevin Fed Pivot and you'll find at least four different videos explaining why this fed pivot will be different.

But I have a different explanation today to try to help educate some of these bears. but there's still more bearish information. The moral research just came out today and suggested that this is the first time we have had a contraction in the M2 money supply falling 2.4 year over year since 1961. I'm sorry since 1960 and it potentially suggests that we have a lot more pain ahead of us.

the the actual true effects of quantitative tightening are still to come. So the Bears are arguing that the Bears are arguing. Excuse me that the economy is running on fumes. Well, I have a response to this: I Have a drawing and of course, nothing could be more interesting than a drawing from me.

Kevin So let's pull up the drawing from Meet Kevin by clicking a few quick buttons here. I Click That button. I Click That button. Oh, that's juicy.

Look at that. So thanks again to Stream Yard. By the way, Now, remember if you go to Metkeven.com Stream Yard, you'll be able to use this software as well. You also get a free trial so you'll save some money with it, which is pretty cool.

In fact, right now as I was saying that I actually uploaded a new banner and watch this: I'm going to push this button. Look what happens? Boom How I Live Stream Metkevin.com Stream Yard Isn't that cool? I Just flip between different banners like that. In fact, we actually made quite a few of them, which which we think are kind of cool. Let me upload some more of these.

Look at this: I made a life and Insurance one easy life insurance paid promotion Met Kevin.com Life Look I made a house hack one I'm having too much fun with this. This is actually really cool I Kind of really enjoy this anyway. Okay, let's look at my drawing. So going to my drawing now.

So uh, this folks look at this. Uh okay, so this is what I wrote is a normal crash. You ready for this? I'm on my iPhone Right there we go. Okay, so a normal crash looks like this.

First, the Bubble pops this right here. We'll call it the GDP line. So the bubble pops. Prices quickly go down, then the economy enters or starts signaling a recessionary environment.

And usually when the economy starts suggesting a recession, the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates. So think about that. The Federal Reserve actually begins to cut rates as the economy is starting to show signs of entering into a recession. Then markets continue to fall, and then the recession actually begins.

And then the earnings bottom generally occurs about six months after the bottom of the stock market. But we're already in a recession and usually in a recession is where the market bottoms. This folks is a historically normal crash. Again, bubble pops.

We start seeing recessionary signs. the Federal Reserve panics and cuts rates the market Falls more. We hit bottom, which is about six months before the earnings bottom and then we slowly get lead out of the recession generally by growth stocks. Okay, so now what is this time and keep in mind the most dangerous words today are this time is different right? And that is the most dangerous thing you could say in a recession.

But I'm going to show you the potential. this time is different Chart: This is my opinion. I Drew this I Think it is a consolidation of all of the research that I do. So what do we have up here November of 2021? What do you have you have? Well, bubble pops right and the stock market ends up falling at three times the speed that we fell in 20 in 2000.

So in other words, this stock market crashed three times as fast as the 2 000 stock market crash. That's pretty incredible. That is a very rapid fall. and so then we had this sort of W shaped bottom around the same time that we actually had a technical recession.

We were technically in a recession when the market first bottomed in Q3 Q2 Q3 Uh, July to October was our first stock market bottom. We had another bottom in many stocks in December thanks to tax loss harvesting. Then we had rebuying in January A lot of rebuying in January Because well, obviously the people who tax loss harvested wanted to rebuy because of well, maybe Fomo or what have you. Then we had fear in February that January was too strong.

so we traded relatively sideways in January in February rather. But now we're starting to get data that suggests maybe inflation is actually going away. The February Pce data was actually phenomenal. Now of course we're going to be getting our CPI data here on April 12th, which is when the next coupon code will be expiring and the prices will go up again for the programs on building your wealth and you get that price guarantee.

But take a look at this on the right over here. I Believe that the Federal Reserve will actually not cut because of a recession or otherwise. I Actually think the Federal Reserve cutting has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not we enter a recession. We could have been in the recession here in 2022 as a technical recession, or we could potentially enter a recession over in this blue area on the right.

So the blue areas here are in my opinion, where we could be in a recession either here or here. But notice, the Federal Reserve does not actually cut Upon Us Entering a recession, the Federal Reserve only ends up cutting when they are convinced that they have conquered inflation. and upon being convinced that they have conquered inflation, I Believe the Nike Swoosh takes hold the market moons. Why? Because inflation is what's causing The Strife We face today.

There's nothing nothing other than inflation that is causing The Strife We have today. Yes, Is it possible that we over tighten? Sure. But as long as inflation goes away way I believe the fear of this crisis goes away. That's my tank we'll see.

But it is my belief. and I think it's the belief that could be correct here. I'm putting my money where my mouth is here. So even though the Bears have their arguments, I actually think this Bloomberg piece is very incredible.

When you have the Bloomberg author saying look, everybody's bearish right now Goldman Sachs remember says zero Bulls out there, apparently they're not watching me Kevin Maybe they should subscribe. thank you for watching Then you've got uh, you know, a Bank of America suggesting that the allocation to U.S stocks is an 18-year low. I Mean it's no surprise that we could have a nice slow and steady recovery out of this mess as long as inflation keeps trending down. The what destroys my thesis completely is a Resurgence of inflation.

If inflation resurges, we're screwed. But so far that's not happening. So knock on wood. Literally.

Doing that right now. Knock on wood and I appreciate you watching this segment on the bear Stranglehold of recession. Yeah, I mean Jerome Powell Acknowledging the ghost of Arthur burns the mistake of cutting too early is exactly why he will not cut until rates are convinced until inflation is convincingly down. That reiterates my point, right?.