Hey everyone, welcome to the eve of CPI Inflation which comes out at 5 30 a.m Tomorrow that is in less than 12 hours. In fact, it's in about 10 hours and 45 minutes. So in this video I'd like to talk about uh, some reasons for optimism and I figure there's nothing like being optimistic about inflation then. um, you know, a glass of wine with a p on it. So cheers and good luck tomorrow because we need it. Um, white wine. All right. So what are some reasons to be optimistic about inflation? Well, we need some optimism in life. Even more than the 60 off coupon code. the largest coupon code we've ever had before. Because well, there's just lots of pain. So what do we got? Well here is a chart that literally says underlying reasons for optimism on inflation and I'm like huh? that belongs in this video. Uh, the the the chart of reasons to be bearish on inflation didn't make it into this video. Uh, anyway, so truthfully, this chart is actually quite interesting. The New York Federal Reserve has a measure of underlying inflation and uh, it historically leads what CPI does. Uh, so you could see here on uh, the far left. Uh, you, you kind of get a little bit of Rise here before you get a rise. You get a rise here before you get a rise. Uh, you know, and it's not a hundred percent perfect like over here I was noticing I Go. Oh, you kind of had a little bit of a drop before you had the big drop right? but underlying inflation collapsed over here. Uh, and then it You see CPI kind of trend down with it, right? So you know pretty decent a chart. Uh, in fact, you uh, see uh here which I think is the most interesting part. Uh, is that the white line is CPI and represents potentially a six-month lag of inflation. When you look at underlying inflation, you actually see that it started to turn so uh, this is uh, I I wouldn't call this the most perfect chart I Think there are definitely some flaws in it, but uh, you know for for a Bloomberg chart? Uh, you know, and and put, it looks well put together, it doesn't seem that bad. Uh, look I I think that uh, it's probably right in the fact that yeah, underlying inflation probably has peaked now. does that mean CPI will come down? well? technically it should. And that's because if we go back to uh, the last time this was this, High uh, well, we could. we could do this thing called a spread analysis on this and what you do is you look at where inflation is now and what underlying inflation is now and that spread is about 2.2 percent. That's the largest difference between the two that we've seen since 2009. Now it took CPI about nine months to fall then, so probably not the greatest chart if we're really excited and that's uh, that's or really anxious and that's that drop you see here on the left where uh, you saw the spreads wide in between CPI and underlying the Blue Line uh and it took nine months for it to actually bottom out. So some optimism. but uh, probably not. Uh, solely the the best tool you know. Another reason for optimism is that usually break evens, signal a peak, and then you get a subsequent drop in inflation three to four months after that. Well, we're we're kind of overdue. like we've had this massive drop over here that the massive drop ended over here between June and July. Well, if I'm even generous and I go July which is month seven and I I had three to four months that you know three months is October. That's the data we get tomorrow. If you go for June, that's October for four months, right? So we should see this drop manifest. ideally tomorrow. Uh, but we may not. That's that's just the weird thing about inflation, we just may not. You know, who knows. Maybe this take up we saw was the last inflation report which was sort of the the tick up and this is sort of your five-year Break Even which usually, uh, precedes you know, a change in in actual uh, inflation. So we'll see. uh. here's another one that's interesting and this is sort of a third reason. uh, to be optimistic, Not so pessimistic. So so far we've got two reasons. we've got the underlying and then we've got break evens. The third reason has to do with less pressure in the pipeline. Basically, uh, look, there are these surveys that are conducted. They're they're generally called ISM surveys and they're either on services or manufacturing prices. And basically what they do is they go to like the purchasing managers at companies and they're like hey, you know how much are your input costs costing you, Are they costing you more the same or less than last month when we called you and the managers respond and they'll say okay, well it's actually costing us more money uh than it was last month So you get a one rating. Oh, it's actually costing us the same. So you get a 50 basis point rating. Oh, it's costing us less So you get a zero rating and then they do that with you know, hundreds of of different managers and they come together with this chart. Uh, that basically averages it and anytime you get a reading of under 50, you're deemed to be in recession. Uh, and you can see that the prices paid for manufacturing not yet Services Which we expected that Goods inflation would collapse first and then Services inflation will collapse. Well, right on cue, you can actually see manufacturing prices paid under 50 here in the recessionary uh realm. And you also see that Services is off peak. so both of these are off peak so that's not bad. That's uh, that's our third reason for bullishness on inflation now. Uh, obviously we have to take. uh, before. Reason number four: we got somebody here from Sweden listening at 3 41 am I hope you're getting your sleep. uh Jeeves right now, that's that's earlier than than when I wake up. That's pretty early until diesel goes down. Inflation will continue to rise, but nobody talks about it. just regular fuel. Well, that's not true. In fact, I made a whole video dedicated to diesel like two weeks ago and then other people started copying my Tucker Carlson Clips because Tucker had like a pretty dramatic kind of intro like the world has 25 days of diesel left. But the thing is, you know CPI literally has a headline number that says CPI minus energy right? Like people are aware that energy costs are high, people are aware that diesel prices were high and there's a shortage and in shortages, prices go up. That's how a free market economy works. but we have more than just a diesel problem. So cheers to having a lot of problems. Hey, you know what? I don't think there's a problem with having lots of problems Nobody's Perfect Uh, and to think Biden would give tax credits for EVS Hey, it's really helping prop up Tesla stock. So number four reason for optimism: Number four reason for optimism Rising mentions of lower input commodity raw material costs by Management in guidance and conference calls. Now it's important to know that this ends. Really likes it. looks like September 30th Maybe they have October in there so you're really not getting the latest earnings calls. Uh, so I don't think this is like that. Last bar is really a complete representation, but I do think it's interesting that they draw this blue trend line which seems like it totally ignores conveniently the far right chart. a bar chart bar. I guess uh, but I don't know. They make the argument that basically management is complaining uh or I'm sorry. management is more frequently talking about lower input costs via this conveniently ignoring this part. But but again, I think that that could be because of when they actually measure the data. Okay, all right, you know for uh for for optimism one salute. That's right. um Market supplied Kevin's Black Friday coupon code today. Jeez man. I mean I know it's a good coupon and I mean I'll take the compliment but damn I I you know I I didn't want to cause pain. uh, you know I'm sorry about that. I mean I guess if if I had to market the coupon code I had to do what I had to do. You know All right, let's go to reason number five. Uh, I will say and I think this is important for everyone I Think that down markets are really a time for you to think about what can you do to just like work more hours and and put more effort in? So I mean I've certainly been doing that. uh you know I mean there's also more stuff going on so it's easier to. but uh, you know I I'm I'm just like hey look I'm just gonna sit here all day long and I'm just gonna crank and uh, you know whether that's on phone calls, uh, you know, dealing with house hack or uh, you know, working on on um, financial advisor stuff, uh or it's it's making new lectures. uh right, it's it for me. It's just like what can I do to just try to provide more value. And so we've got a huge lecture dump coming out in a few weeks which is really exciting. A lot of new content I Always love posting new content like especially in the lectures it's different than on YouTube uh and we could talk like candidly I feel like here on the lives but uh, you know you make a YouTube video. it's like it's Gotta It's gotta be like oh yeah, people want to click on it, you know. uh, whereas like lectures you could just focus on like just really good. and I think all the videos I make on the YouTube channel are great but with the lectures it's like hey, should you use an LLC or an S corp like that how many views do you think my video would get on YouTube if I post that? on YouTube LLC or S Corp You know or or Kevin's strategies for tax mitigation at your end? Uh, you know, Whatever. like I don't know. those things don't do so well. Anyway, Okay, Reason number Five Four: potentially hopium on Lower Inflation Foreign. This says uh. mentions of signing bonuses are off peak from last fall when they were a huge factor in retaining and hiring staff Mansions remain elevated though. Yeah, So basically what they're saying is nobody needed to do signing bonuses over here because people were just thankful to be able to get a job. and now we're having to do less signing bonus talk and conference calls. And we're certainly off peak. which is beautiful. But we're definitely still at relatively high levels compared to where we were before the pandemic in 2017 18 and 19.. So like, if we were at today's levels, then it'd be on the higher side, right? So it's interesting. It's it's nice to see this inflection point I Think that's reason number five I'm pretty sure that was reason number five. Uh, somebody here says Don't drive. What do you mean I gotta get back home anyway. Um, so Reason Number Six: Single figure. You know I never understood why they call it single figure but I'll just go with it. Commodity: Oh oh, because it's under 10 percent as opposed to double digit I Get it? Ah see, see, look at that. If I were live I would have just rolled right past that one. Yeah, what good are self-driving cars? Come on. Anyway, somebody wanted to know what we're drinking. Uh, this is some white wine and uh, it's got 13 alcohol and I'm pretty sure it's less than fifteen dollars now. I Gotta ask Lauren Hold on Lauren Oh, let's find out yo how much duh wine. All right. So single-figure commodity price inflation. It didn't last long, but base effects are beginning to have an impact. Okay, so a base effect is just a fancy way of saying when you compare to last year. Uh, your inflation looks like it's growing at a lower percentage. So right here is October of last year and right here is October of this year. and as you can see, if I draw a line between the two, it's lower. Oh, here we go. Here comes our answer: Uh um. I don't know exactly but I don't spend more than fifteen dollars, probably 10.. There you go. You gotta have a Lauren Who doesn't spend lots of money on stuff that doesn't matter? Very important. Get yourself a Lauren All right. So commodity price inflation down great and look Trend down very good longer term Trend down wedge down. Uh yeah, that's pretty good. That's good. All right. Um, what's next? Oh yeah. okay, so those are all the reasons to be optimistic. However, you always have to add a little bit of pessimism. Uh, which? I always like to offset by reminding you about the 60 off coupon code down below. It's the biggest coupon code we've ever had. And if you have any questions or you want a custom bundle or something that you don't see on the website, just email me at Kevin.com We'll take care of you. Uh, anyway, so somebody has to, of course put a chart out there that just has to put some negative spin on all these great charts that we've looked at. Okay, great freaking charts that we've looked at. And what do we have here? Bad news. And this is where they say if inflation comes in any higher month over month than 0.3 to 0.2 it's going to be above the Fed's inflation Target Now this is where a lot of people say, well the FED just needs to suck it and raise their inflation Target to like three percent as opposed to two percent. But you know lately I've been trying to tell Jerome Powell to suck it and he just says son, take the beating These are the current targets for inflation and as you can see, they're actually higher than what we've been used to, especially on a month-over-month basis, which I'm hoping is really wrong. My personal goal is that number comes in at 0.4 but my goals mean nothing CPI year over year at 7.9 I Think if we can meet that expectation and be under eight percent, hey, why not? I'll take it. Um yeah, so that's my presentation on inflation optimism. so cheers to that. If you have any questions, maybe I'll answer some uh, we did just see BTC recover from 15 5 to 16 too which is kind of cool. I'm streaming CPI tomorrow at 5 30 A.M You know what I can actually do which is kind of cool is uh, I can schedule the CPI live stream now and then you could hit the little remind button. uh which is cool and even after this video like when this video closes out, it should redirect you to the Uh to the new one is very cool. So when I end this stream in like two minutes, you should get a redirect uh and and then you could click the little remind button. see I'm trying to make these things like really easy for you election Update: You know it's a poop show. uh I think what? we've got a toss up on uh the uh the the Senate's gonna probably go Democrat uh you know they've got the one seed Edge uh and then as far as I think the big question is just the house right? Uh, at this point and uh, you still have quite a few seats to go so we'll see what happens. but uh, it's it's been quite exhausting and I think that's why there's been so much stress. I mean Republicans are at 207 Democrats are 189 for the uh, uh, what's it called? uh for the house all that you do have uh and this is where the runoff could actually be really interesting I mean take a look at this for a moment here this is. hold on a sec. There we go. You know Republicans are at 49 seats and I don't think I think we still have? yeah, we still have George on that counted in that. So this is going to be really interesting because even if Republicans can get to 50 again, if they end up winning Georgia that would be really interesting. Let's look at the races to watch here. race. Oh man, they're gonna make me sign in again. All right. Well I'll do that anyway. Uh I don't know what else we got while I look at this. do I plan to run for governor again. uh probably not until I'm like really old. it's uh, people have like an age problem in politics it seems. uh unless you're like I found it seems like really extreme and I don't think I am I think I'm pretty moderate and reasonable. uh but reasonable and young don't seem to work Trump can fix the economy again I don't I don't know man did I buy BTC I probably uh uh. would I would consider buying BTC if Finance goes bankrupt and then like I want to see the bottom of that poop show because that's just gonna be so crazy when Binance goes. Banker I don't know that they will, You know I'm making a guess but if they go BK that's that's when you get some pain. Yeah, Okay, so the New York Times forecast is 224 Republicans for the house 211 Democrats They actually think the Senate is going to be a 50 50. So you're going to have gridlock I mean all you need is one of that Chambers for gridlock and uh, and then you have gridlock, which is what everybody wants in the stock market. I'm specifying again, that's what people want in the stock market. It's not necessarily what Society wants uh or well I would say Democrats So I don't think I don't think uh Republicans expect to get much done over the next two years. Finance is 30 times the size of coinbase. Exactly. That's why I think it will be like you will have some glorious discounts if they go. BK Oh yeah, yeah, uh, where things stand. Republicans Were picking up seats and headed towards an uh, an expected House Majority as of late Wednesday but the Senate remained undecided amid signs. The GOP gains were narrow and Democrats had fended off the midterm. Red Wave Many have anticipated the results of Tuesday's election revealed voter anxiety, blah blah blah. All right. So still waiting Democrats flipped some seats Republicans flipped some seeds Senate remained undecided Democrats flipped a key seat in Pennsylvania while Republicans held on to Ohio Wisconsin and Florida but three remaining Senate races remained too close to call. Poll workers continue to count Arizona and Nevada while the Georgia Secretary of State confirmed that neither candidate passed the 50-vote requirement. Really, we're waiting for Arizona and Nevada are those even close? I Mean they literally did say too close to call. So I suppose when they say it's too close to call, they, they mean it's too close to call. Um, so that would be whoa. The Republican is leading by 18 000 votes in Nevada Wow. Interesting. And then Mark Kelly is leading by 95 000 votes and he's the Democrat. So whoa. This is quite interesting. Say you get a Republican and a Democrat win here. That's going to put you at 49.50 Oh whoa. This could actually run down to uh uh to uh. This could be another Georgia runoff where uh, uh, where. Like, there's some, you know, Senate Control comes down to Georgia again for the second time. that'd be so crazy. Oh wow that that would be wild. That's entirely possible. But wow, Okay, uh, where was I Reading more about this? Okay, yeah here. Republicans need just five net seats to regain a majority in the house of reps and end two years of democratic control even if Republicans Ultimately, Prevail the strong Democratic performance in the face of President Biden's poor job approval ratings is remarkable. Yeah, that that's a fair statement. Republicans Headed into Tuesday night hoping to pick up more than 20 seats, but by Wednesday morning, it appeared that their majority if one would likely be much narrower. Yeah, probably instead of 20 seats closer to like six. House Minority Leader: Kevin McCarthy Told supporters early Wednesday morning when you wake up, we will be in the majority and Nancy Pelosi will be in the minority. but that has not happened yet. It probably will happen. I think Nancy Pelosi is probably going to retire if she loses the the Speaker of the House uh seat. So I don't know. we'll see Senate's now split because of Kamala Is the break even? blah blah blah. All right. cool. So cheers to that! Um, just graduated with a finance degree. What should I do? I Don't know. Why don't you just get like a series license and see if anyone's hiring. The problem is a lot of banks are laying off right now. You know it's like it's a really crap time to to graduate if you like BTC at 69 you'll love it. At 6.9 that's a good one. Oh man did Win report. Let me see here. Yeah I think win was today maybe intern for meet Kevin that's true. Met Kevin.com jobs. Um yeah. when did report? What'd they say? Win loss of 142.9 million operating Revenue Five Five hundred Forty four point four mil The estimate was 510. That's a beat on Las Vegas Wow. Well Las Vegas is happening. It's Macau That's screwed. Operating Revenue 889.7 The estimate was 870 and Macau covered. Related restrictions continue to negatively impact results. Uh uh Macau were 40 mil. Revenues decreased from 90.

wow just a complete collapse of uh of Macau revenues Q3 Loss Narrows Overall Revenue Falls uh, they missed on EPS Revenue did B by 20 million bucks. it seems a little mixed. I mean I feel like the markets are already convinced that like Macau just sucks Yeah I mean the Stock's flat after all, right? Well I don't know if I don't know when it reported though. um, Crypto Lifer wants to know if I'll come to your channel for an interview? you know I go through these like bouts of uh of um, wanting to do interviews and now it's not really that time. especially since I was supposed to go to Florida tonight, but my flight got canceled because of hurricane Nicole and Lauren's like yeah, that was my fault I wanted to delay the flight uh and uh and and her middle name is Nicole so I'm like freaking Hurricane Lauren here. Oh yeah. anyway. um well folks I hope you appreciated the um optimistic insight into inflation. Um, you know I I wish I had lots more money to go buy stuff. Hey I just joined. How do you think the market will react If CPI is better or worse than expected? you should watch my fed video from earlier where I literally pull up Jpm's expectations and I think they're actually reasonable expectations. if I could pull it up right now, I would. but it seems to be relatively inconvenient for me to do that at the moment. Uh, because I found it. you should still watch the video from earlier. Uh, but basically, uh, 30 chance we go down two to three percent on the S P 500 if we print above uh, 40 chance we match and the S P actually goes higher on a match I Actually agree with JPM on this: I think we're coming in at 7.7 and four. Okay, so put that on a Post-It note somewhere and drink to that. Okay, drink to a miss. four on the month over month and 7.7 on the headline I'm gonna be there 5 30 in the morning tomorrow and I'm gonna scream. If you want to see me scream and squeal, come tomorrow at 5 30. now when I hit end on this I'm flying to Florida 4 a.m today Hollywood Oh Shoot, that's awesome dude. Hollywood Yeah, I'm flying to uh Orlando although I have no idea when I'm actually Gonna Fly there now because everything's messed up might end up being like Monday or something anyway. Um, yeah. so I'll see you all tomorrow at 5 30. Now Listen, here's what's gonna happen: I'm gonna end this live stream and then you're gonna get a little pop-up that shows the CPI live stream with the blue House hack background. Click that click the remind button and I'll see you there. And if you miss the notification because you're sleeping like a weenie, that's okay. I'm jealous. Just watch it when you wake up. Goodbye Everyone.