Russia invaded Ukraine more than a year ago, and by doing so it started a battle on 3 fronts: 1) Military-Strategic; 2) Economic; 3) Geo-Political. In this video we will review how Putin is doing on all 3 fronts and what is next for Russia down the line.
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So when Russia invaded Ukraine about 400 plus days ago, Putin started three fronts: the economic, the geopolitical, and the military. All three must fall into place. for Putin to win. he must have military success, geopolitical success, and economic success for this war to make sense.
And right now he's losing on two out of these three fronts really badly. On the geopolitical side, he's basically became a pariah. Russia is now more isolated than ever, NATO is more expansive than ever and more kind of cohesive than ever. Everybody is basically on the same page now.
Finland and Sweden are joining NATO, the Russian border with NATO doubled, and Russia is now basically relying on the Brics countries for its only allies, which is something they had before plus the west. but now they basically lost the entire European trade, Partnerships and all. and they're basically in the hands of bricks and mainly China so that isolation is not good for you for your geopolitical cloud. and you can really see that China is making plays on some of Russia's allies.
and if you guys want I can elaborate in that on different video. Now on the economic front, things are even Bleaker than they seem. look. Russia is the second biggest and the third biggest oil and gas producer in the world and at about 20 25 of its economy is based on the sale of energy.
Now when the war started, this was a good thing because the wars spiked the prices of energy and what ended up happening is Putin made a huge windfall and the Russian economy survived the sanctions when oil prices plummeted 30 percent in the year which they have, the Russian economy suffered accordingly. In the months of February and January this year, their process from oil and gas are down 50 percent year over year. That's not a good thing for this economy. It cannot survive without high oil prices.
Now on the flip side, their customers are now gone and they're basically selling to China and India now at a discount because nobody else would buy energy from them. So they're selling less at a discount when prices are low anyways. So that's not a good thing for the Russian economy. This is literally a recipe for a recession.
You see. Putin has a sovereign wealth fund of over 180 billion dollars, which was set up specifically to handle sanctions from the west and it's still mostly intact. It's about 150 billion still deep, but for the past year he burned through 30 billion of that because he's running out of money. So it's not like the Russian economy is on the brink of collapse.
it isn't, but its ability to fund the war in Ukraine and not go into a deep recession. It's not getting Slimmer and Slimmer because processes are going down, the costs of War are going up, and in this reality, Russia is headed into Abyss economically. Now look, Putin drag the Russian economy out of the mud. When it was at 200 billion dollars GDP in 2000, it brought it up all the way to 2.3 trillion in 2014 and it's been downhill ever since ever since he invaded the initial Invasion and the annexation of Crimea. But now the anticipation is that by 2023, the Russian GDP will be 1.6 trillion. which means a 30 decline in eight years. You see Putin is driving the Russian economy downwards. But at the same time, one thing is clear: 2022 was a windfall year for the Russian economy.
2023 is going to be a whole lot different. Now, the other problem is that Russia is now fully dependent on China China is their main kind of energy. they're the main supplier of Technology civilian military you name it Russia and China who never got along. and trust me, Russians don't like the Chinese Now they have to work together, but now China is owning.
Russia Russia is essentially becoming an economic colony of China which is something that put in fear the most. but now it's his only card. He doesn't have a way out of this. so can Russia survive this? Yes.
Can they continue to war in Ukraine Yes. but at a cost of causing a massive recession isolating Russia even further and becoming a subordinate of China I Don't think it's a good price, even if he wins in Ukraine There's no way for him to win this war essentially to get the goals that he set out to get which is weekend NATO expand his influence Circle which only kind of grew smaller and smaller and narrow grow bigger and China is now basically meddling in his backyard. He's supporting it to China And the economy is 30 down in the past eight years. So Russia for all this purposes, is losing this war despite any military achievements that it might have.
So don't let them fool you.
Art Of War, baby!
The beginning of the fall of Biden.
It's the USA that is losing support. The USA has screwed up every war it has fought since Iran 1. Now the petrodollar is in jeopardy. US influence is waning and if China decides to take back Taiwan…
Hopefully China will not do anything rash but will play the long game.
The one thing we can hope and pray for is what is going on with China is actually a 2 sided deal where they are cout de tat the russia government and east and west can be united . Fingers crossed
Tom , I ve been following you and I like your work on economics. But war and geopolitics is clearly not your stuff. Putin is far from falling, and neither is Russian economy . More likely is US economy and it's fake currency that will eventually loose power in the years to come.
Tom, you are looking great. 👍
With Putin bent over a oil barrel China will now pound it home.
The us has no oil no gold and the dollar is crumbling
Putting is falling
Or is the USA dollar falling
NATO is demonic and the US military is crumbling as they are running out of amo
Tom I really hope you are right on this one
Validimir Poon-tang 🍑
… Russia will not lose the war
Everyone has been wrong about everything for the last 3 years…
full of copium…
Love you putin…..🇲🇨
This video is completely illogical. According to my knowledge, I would say that Russia will definitely win this war and Putin is quite powerful so he can not be replaced for prez
Excellent analysis❤
Slava Rusiji. You guys still think Ukraine is winning. The avg lifespan od the ukrainian soldier is 6 HRS on the battlefield
hey poopin…at this moment, your daughter is being electrified…….
We evolve…. and you evolve. You're ahead of the crowd…. please enlighten those who insist on looking away.
Meanwhile the American dollar is collapsing, soon to no longer be the Petro dollar and little kids are having their genitals cut off. I'd say we're defeating ourselves.
Nice shirt!
Shame, poor Russian, poor Putin. Lol
NATO is 13.5 % of the world's population.
Wonder how much he gets paid for these propaganda pieces?
Hope it's worth it Tom, because they make you sound stupid when the exact opposite happens.
No one will ever open a business in Russia again or trust them. They will be outcasts for Years. But at least they do not have a Senile President who cant remember where he is half the time / Shakes hands with imaginary people / fondles young girls / and can't talk to the people without a teleprompter.
China Must be loving this soon they will own Russia. Then they will no longer need energy or food it is a Epic Win for China.
Russia is caught between a rock and a hard place. On one side, they have western globalists trying to force their (woke) "liberal world order" on every nation across the globe by means of wars, proxy wars, coups, installing puppet politicians and sanctions (weaponization of the world currency system) all while proclaiming themselves the saviors of democracy (as if the above tactics + censorship, propaganda and cancel culture were democratic). On the other side you have the Chinese Communist Party who have plans of beating the western globalists at their own game (but without the woke nonsense). This is a terrible situation and not just for Russia. It's a terrible situation for the entire world. We are all between a rock and a hard place unless we replace the warmongering western globalists with populists and libertarians. Only then can we regain the trust of the rest of the world and stop driving them into the arms of the CCP. And in the process we might save our own country from these western authoritarian elitists.
If you can’t trust on the elections any other issue becomes irrelevant. LGB!🤣