Welcome back to another meet! Kevin Report: we're on episode 67. that means in two days, we will be on episode 69, which will also be April 1st. It's almost like somebody planned that or just had incredibly dumb luck. Who knows.

But well, maybe I do. But what I can tell you is that the 10-year treasury right now is sitting pretty stable at 3.55 If we sit around here, it keeps mortgage rates for a home somewhere around 6.3 to 6.6 percent for a 740 Plus credit score still adds some pressure to real estate, but what if people get used to it? Some folks are saying is once people get used to these higher rates and have the expectation they might be able to refinance in the future, maybe they'll just keep buying. Of course, that assumes no surge in inventory for housing, we'll see what happens. Oil prices up about seven tenths of a percent today.

both uh, and over the last couple days they've been up about six percent. So uh, something to keep an eye on oil prices rising up again. kind of some of that banking excuse me. Some of that banking fear went away and escaped to the oil.

Market Uh, pretty soon after the banking crisis is kind of settled I Don't know why I Can have no sneezes all morning long and then within you know, 30 seconds of uh, recording all of a sudden sneezes. but I guess that's just the way it planned. Uh, the Chinese are after me again. but anyway, uh, brain Market is green.

Uh and uh. we've got some catalysts coming up as well as many other subjects to cover. I'd like to start uh with a pretty important one for the FED tomorrow, so we'll start there. Uh, and then we'll dive into some of the other, uh, beautiful, beautiful, sexy topics we got to cover.

So uh, keep in mind that today we will be getting uh, jobless claims as well. We'll be covering those uh in this video when they come out in about one hour. All right, let's get into the Feds preferred inflation gauge known as the Pce, and the PC predict projections. We'll go through all of those and implications for the market.

Well, the Pce comes out at 5, 30 a.m Pacific Time on March 31st, which also happens to be the deadline for investing in the House act. But this is a very key measure for the Federal Reserve and I want to give you the projection. So that way you're prepared and you've got your expectations potentially aligned with what the heck economists think. Unless of course, you want to take the contrarian point of view by going with the overall the under.

So first, the Pce is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge known as personal consumption expenditures. It's an index measured very similarly to CPI One Core. Difference though, is that housing is actually a lower weight in the Pce. In Pce, housing only comes in at around 25 percent, whereas in CPI, you're closer to 34.

Now, that's actually quite potentially important because in the last CPI reports the last two, we started using new way States slightly higher weights for housing and Housing Services have still been hot. They've been coming in hot hot to the point where some are saying one of the only reasons we're still getting hot Inflationary data is yes, some part because of the stickiness of some of the services, though that may actually be going away thanks to tighter credit standards. Really a topic for a different video, but quick little spoiler alert. There's a lot of talks that has Banks Titan lending.

Guess who doesn't open up restaurants anymore? or certain businesses anymore? I Guess I Kind of spoiled that one restaurant owners or hotel owners or service industry owners? potentially Stop opening up new facilities which uh, then it makes you wonder. Does that actually potentially increase inflation because you have less restaurants? or does it actually mean there's less pressure on wage earners in retail and Hospitality at the same time the economy is a little Teeter ish. Maybe putting less pricing power into the hands of individuals, meaning potentially less inflationary impetus for the service sector. Either way, any kind of credit tightening is not what we're expecting to see in this next report.

And that's because this next report is going to talk about February's data. I'll give you the projections in just a moment, but it's just important to note that they have less of a housing weight than CPI and it comes out tomorrow. The stock market is very likely to move based off the numbers that we see in this particular report. So tomorrow, the personal consumption numbers are expected.

From a prior release of 0.6 which was the hot hot January number, we are expecting to get a 0.2 which is actually very good. If we could get a point two percent on the release, I think that's phenomenal. The reason we want to see a number like this is because the number would actually on an annualized basis be somewhat in line with two percent inflation. A point two percent read is about 2.4 percent, and the FED could, easily, in my opinion, argue that point two is well within the bounds of averaging two percent inflation, so that could be a a good number to hit if it comes in less than 0.2 I would expect even more enthusiasm for the stock market right now.

Technically, the NASDAQ yesterday entered into a bull market. Now, this was pretty surprising to me, but that's true. the NASDAQ is up about 20.4 percent from bottoming out in October And technically now the NASDAQ is back into bull market territory. This is quite remarkable.

This is actually leading Bloomberg to put together multiple different stories on how it's basically by the dippers going back into action and buying and I think that activity could actually be accelerated by a weak Pce uh, producer prior sorry, not producer price. that's PPI I'm thinking of by a weak personal consumption. Expenditures read: I mean take a look at this story here from Bloomberg this one right here. Wild stock market reversals put dip buyers on his store or a pace for historic Year All right, let's take a look and then of course we have some more projections to get into Uh for the survey tomorrow.

But anyway, look at this in the 2023 stock market. when one group of companies fall out of favor, another usually is ready to take its place. This is called the cyclical transition sort of of socks. Generally, you go into a recession, people go defensives, they go to utilities and health care, and Staples uh and then when the recession bottoms out, people go to growth because they think growth will lead you out and kind of get these sort of moves around.

When there's war, people flee into the the military industrial college, right? These are very, very typical kind of moves. But anyway, the latest winner is the firms with the riskiest credit. Uh, that's actually kind of scary. Uh, poised for their best week Since January versus their sturdier balance sheet counterparts, the outperformance is happening as credit markets stresses ease, helping push the S P 500 up for four out of the last five days.

The sudden popularity of firms with dicey credit is part of a large pattern in equities this year, where Harry Traders reliably find new vehicles to express bullish views. Now, personally, I Just want to be clear in case I haven't already been: I'm a big fan of looking for companies with high free cash flow which is operating cash flow minus Capital expenditures and high net income I Like both of those, Okay, and if they could be in growth and I could get all three of those and some pricing power, that's awesome. But Bloomberg's talking about 2023 is shaping up to be the second best year for the dip buying strategy. How Wild is that a gloomberg? Bloomberg that's a good one a Goldman Sachs Group uh basket of companies with weak balance sheets Advanced for a fourth straight session, extending its week up 3.3 compared to a weekly return of about one percent for the Goldman basket of companies with sturdier finances, weak areas of the market maybe seeing short covering or momentum trading that is looking for quick gains.

Now, personally, I think that's a little risky. It's a little speculative, so it's okay if you're trading these sorts of things. but I'm a little bit more of a fan of an in and out if you're going to be playing with, uh, potentially more highly leveraged companies. But it's kind of wild to think we're back into a technical bull market territory.

Crazy. All right. So Headline: 0.2 versus 0.6 from last time. Then we get personal spending.

Personal suspense suspending. Oh, it's too early. personal spending, in January came in at a gain of 1.8 percent. We are now projecting point three percent.

Okay, reasonable. Remember what the stock market is going to try to balance right now? We have a little bit of I like to call it the Teeter-totter So if I kind of draw a little triangle here and this is our Market that we're trying to balance. Really, what we're trying to balance right now, on one side is sort of our regular, uh, inflation risk. Uh, But then on the other side, we're also trying to balance.

uh Financial uh, stability and recession right? So on the right side you kind of have your banking crisis and on the left side you have your inflation risk. Uh, and so we're kind of doing this right now because either of these being bad would mean the parties officially over. although I think the party has been kind of dead for for like the last year. But uh, beyond that.

All right. So real personal spending inflation adjusted. Expected to come in at point one percent versus 1.1 Then we get the Pce deflators numbers. Uh, numbers.

Now we're actually getting into Pce. so we get retail spends or personal income and expenditures. Then we get the actual, uh, inflating inflation version of the number. uh, Pce deflator month over month Expected to be point three percent.

Uh, it's a little higher than that. Sort of average. Two percent, right? Three point six percent. Then we get the BET and that's different from sort of personal incomes.

Uh, even though we want those to also be somewhat close to two percent, because the idea is if personal incomes are close to two percent, that inflation might be close to two percent. Personal incomes really give you a measure of the wage price spiral, and that's again, expected to be point two percent. The actual Pce deflator month over month is expected to be point three percent, a little bit hotter there. probably because of that housing and sticky Services Side: Uh, and then the year over year is expected to be Point uh or sorry 4.7 4.7 is the same read we got last time.

Uh, that is the uh oh sorry I Went ahead here. Let me read this correctly here: Pce deflator month over month Point three percent PC deflator year over year 5.1 Pce core year over year 4.7 and PC core deflator month over month 0.4 All of those measures are down from the January read: the most important here, probably being that month over month uh, 0.3 versus the 0.6 from last time. with the exception of a year-over-year core matching 4.7 that out report will come out tomorrow at 5 30 A.m Pacific Time 8 30 Eastern We'll also be getting the University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Uh, now we'll have some talking about sentiment to do today, and there's some concerns that sentiment can actually fall once we're actually in an official recession.

But uh, what's important from sentiment in my opinion, is that we're going to keep those inflation expectations stable. U of M one year expected to be stable at 3.8 and 5-10 New York expected to be stable at 2.8 for inflation. So that's fantastic now. Uh, that, uh, that month over month? Uh, deflator number? That's basically your CPI month over month read: very similar to that.

Again, expected to come in at Uh 0.3 and that'll come out tomorrow. we've got for tomorrow I Want to give you kind of the the skew on this. It looks like we've got 44 estimates. The high estimate is 0.5 the low estimate is 0.3 and the average estimate is 0.35 So it seems like there's a real skew.

Uh, almost everybody on this chart is sitting under 0.45 Nobody's under 0.25 So what does that tell us? Well, it tells us if the number, uh, if Pce month over month comes in at point two tomorrow, that would be pretty dang bullish. Because really, nobody is estimating that we're going to be at Point, uh, anything under 0.25 So if we get a 0.2 a Pce deflator month over month Good sign. it's a rocket ship on the way to Mars. Uh, then uh, if we get any kind of number above, probably point five like point Five or up, that would be really bad news.

My expectation is that's going to be the most important number, specifically because those month over month numbers are really useful because they kind of ignore all of the last year stuff. They just tell us what's happening right now. So I Personally like this, That's not to say that the year over year number doesn't need to come down as well, but those are going to be some important data points coming out tomorrow. Uh, and especially since at the same time as these data points are expected to come out.

We're obviously in this environment where we're kind of starting to build the Nike Swoosh and I'm really excited about that. Do keep in mind that when we talk about the swoosh, I generally like to show QQQ but if you're going to invest in the NASDAQ I'm actually a bigger fan of you using Qqqm, so just add an M to that ticker symbol. The reason you want to do that is the fees are substantially lower and it's basically the same index. it's actually provided by the same company.

Uh, and they they just basically they do all their marketing for QQQ and not for Qqqm, so the price sensitive people can go over to Qqqm while they could still milk lots of profit off of the QQQ investors. Anyway, something to keep an eye on. Uh, just like the programs I'm building your wealth uh, link down below and the amazing opportunity for you to get life insurance in as little as a five minutes linked down below right next to the get 12 free stocks with this very platform right here. So if you like what you see on this platform, 12 free stocks linked down below I'm supposed to put up one of these buttons I think if I push is it this button? One of these there we go.

No, that doesn't work. One of these buttons tells you it's a paid promotion I can't figure it out. Oh, that one still says paid promo motion. Uh, was it it wasn't six? Was it seven? It wasn't seven? There it is.

button number eight. All right. Anyway, so where were we? I Gotta figure that stuff out. So what we got over here: Uh I Really think this is the start of it? Uh I I Really hope we don't drop down again, right? I mean if we draw like volatility totally to be expected I expect this.

but if we break the lows over here, the Nike Swoosh is dead. Uh, which would be a problem because I've kind of been betting on the Nike Swoosh Uh, but uh, at least I'm making it bad. So I believe that even though this was representative of a year I believe that the handle over here is going to be 10 years long and so you know, strong bet. But uh I I think in in hindsight this is gonna look like a joke.

Uh, look at like remember when the NASDAQ was running for like two years straight over here? Uh, look at this like two year run over here. This is kind of an example of a Nike Swoosh over here. except it just uses the shorter covid pandemic to show you the left side of it. Look at that down straight up.

basically. yeah, was there a little bit. I Mean this is why I buy the dipboard so well. because you could buy the dip and just immediately get rewarded afterwards.

So that's why we had such a by the dip area over here and this this was long. I mean that was from March of 2020 to December of 2021. I Mean that's almost two years. That's wild.

Uh, of course. now we're in in a substantially larger downtrend and hopefully that's the beginning of the swoosh recovery over here. Uh, so far it actually has been tested I Think a lot better than some of these other drops. I Mean consider this: Uh, this was Bear.

that was not even really a recovery over here at the beginning of January last year. we look over here at this brief recovery in March it brought us to new lows right afterwards. Brief recovery here in August brought us to new lows. and then really, it's been since about October November right around when I launched my ETF That's interesting.

we launched the ETF like the 30th like somewhere over here. like the 30th of uh of November Learn more by going to meet Kevin.com But anyway. uh I Really hope this is this is the bottom. Uh, and so we'll see.

And what's different here is the last time we had sort of this sort of red bear cycle here. Briefly, we didn't actually break new lows when in the past when we get our next bear psych or our next red bear cycle after our green upcycle, we tend to break to a new low. We didn't do that. So in my opinion, that's reiterating this sort of channel of of the Nike Swoosh which I think rides this line over here.

So I think it'll probably be until it could be until July based on this right here before we actually break up to the next Fibonacci retracement line. No guarantees. Who knows. Maybe we'll break it sooner, but if we break it sooner, we'll probably fall back to it in honor of that.

Nike Swoosh uh like I say I think I think we're going to be in a little bit of a volatile uh recovery up. So um, we'll see. So uh, that uh, that's a little bit of my thesis on Nike Swoosh and uh, the uh, important Catalyst to pay attention to tomorrow. Of course I'll be streaming it live tomorrow, so make sure you come to your meet Kevin report tomorrow at 5 30 Pacific and I'll cover the news the second it drops.

My goal is always to beat CNBC If I could beat CNBC Uh, I Win! And so uh. With that said, make sure to check out the programs on building your wealth link down below. Yesterday we talked about short shorts. We also did fundamental analysis, but we also talked modeled short shorts.

So if you want to see that, uh, for whatever reason, check out the programs of building your wealth link down below. See, you never know what you're gonna get. You just don't know what you're going to get. But usually it's fundamental analysis.

You talk about the size of a PP and yeah, check that out. link down below and make sure you remember that deadline. Thank you All right now we gotta talk about artificial intelligence. Uh, Ai's been a really interesting topic lately and so we're going to talk about AI some chip stocks that could be related, uh, related plays to Ai and some of the Wilderness that's happening in terms of reporting on AI.

All right, let's get that ready here. Then we'll just take a second. Generative AI We got this. We got this All right.

Very cool. Now we gotta talk about artificial Intelligence Generative AI What it could potentially do to the jobs: Market Is it an inflationary impetus? Is it disintlationary? What companies might benefit? And what are some fears that are circulating because I'll tell you Elon Musk Along with 1100 Engineers yesterday, signed an open letter calling for a six-month pause on any kind of artificial intelligence that is stronger than chat. GPT 4 level strength now I tweeted about this of course I feel like when I tweet logic. It's not as sort of like viral as if you tweet something that's more emotion based.

but I do it anyway because I like to share what I think is logical input. Uh, and hopefully you like following for that. And so I shared this. I said 1100 engineers in Elon Musk signed an open letter demanding any artificial intelligence development stronger than Chachi Pt4 pause for six months based on the scientific Game Theory I just drew.

It looks like your choices as a company are pause and have a 50 chance of dying. or don't pause and have a 50 likelihood of dying. Looks like you're screwed either way. in other words, in a game theory example.

In my opinion, it makes absolutely zero sense for any company to actually pause their artificial intelligence research. because think about it. If both companies pause, what do you get? Well, you get a stagnation, right? defined by PP both Uh companies. pause, Get a stagnation.

Everybody loses. The potential benefit is hey, hey, maybe we could regulate Ai and the world doesn't end right? Because the idea. If that, if both companies or all companies don't pause, then maybe the world ends because robots and AI take over the world. All right.

Whatever. That sort of this extreme argument right now. But the more likelihood is that some companies pause and some don't And in that case, the companies that don't pause win. The companies that do pause die.

So basically by pausing, you're signing up for killing your company. And if both companies don't pause, you're basically signing up for killing your companies. So the best answer is everybody pauses for the likelihood of everybody doing that is basically zero. It's a classic prisoners dilemma scenario.

So without going into the details of exactly what that is, I Think the bottom line is simple. when it comes to Elon Musk's letter, it's a nice way to suggest, hey, can everybody please put their swords down for a moment while everybody else catches up. And in public people will be like yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah yeah, sounds like a great idea. And in private, everybody's gonna like keep going man, keep going.

come on man, the world don't work like that. It's way too competitive. way too competitive. Hell, I'll say it if everybody else pauses I'll just jump in and I'll start developing.

I'm not the developer, although I have developers I've worked with it. so maybe I'm one of those not posers. But anyway, we gotta look at this. Goldman Sachs piece.

Let's take a look at this. All right. What do we got here? Generative AI Laying out the investment framework. We're going to be going into some specific stocks as well, but listen to this.

Generative AI further unlocks value as it extends the utility created by AI or software providing new tools for enhancing end user productivity now. I Have to say I've been playing with Generative Ai and one of the things about AI is that we've regularly been saying oh well, Ai's not going to uh, remove like creatives, right? There's there's no way artificial intelligence is going to affect creative people. So as long as you're creative, you're good, right? I Don't know about that. Uh, just because I mean you can now feed into an AI Hey, AI Design me an app and even though some of these AIS they're not really good about putting text on yet in terms of actually giving you inspiration for layouts, look at this.

I put into an AI generator. Give me a real estate investing app and this is what it came up with I Have to say, for 30 seconds of work, it's kind of cool. It gives you inspiration for buttons and colors and gradients and style. Uh, in the future we'll be able to just hit export and you'll get the code for it and then you can adjust.

You know the text and all the little funky miscellaneous stuff. Generative AI is is pretty impressive. I Mean to the point where Max is like Dad can you draw a ball with eyes coming out of a box and glasses? uh and and like a little character and uh, the AI gave me four different choices and I was blown away. I Mean look at this within like 30 seconds.

Look what? I Get. This is insane. This is really good. Like I can't draw that in 30 seconds and it looks phenomenal.

I Mean how long would it take a creative to actually design this stuff? Two hours, Three hours? I Don't know, even if somebody's really good an hour. I Took this off for 30 seconds. And if you can now export all these elements in the future to Photoshop and then or or whatever, some kind of uh, you know software After Effects whatever and start animating this or playing with this boy I mean I Thought creatives would be safe from AI Uh. Generative AI is pretty dang impressive.

Everybody's at risk. but anyway, how do we make money off of it? Well, that's why we're talking about Goldman Sachs So generative AI is about generating stuff like we just did. We estimate that generative AI Software has a total addressable Market of 150 billion dollars versus the total software industry of 685 billion dollars. No, it's not stable diffusion.

it's my secret. Uh, but listen to that. that is 150. That's 22 of the entire total addressable market for software.

Could be literally generative. AI But you know what the beautiful thing about generative AI is is it isn't even processing on my computer tutor. I did that on an iPhone Why did I do it on an iPhone Because it didn't use my iPhone's graphics cards. It used a server somewhere to do all the artificial intelligence work and then beam over an end product to me.

People made fun of me for in my active ETF you could learn more about by going to meet Kevin.com People made fun of me. They're like oh Kevin uh, you're too heavy on chips and I'm like are you kidding me? Have you ever in your life used a backbone controller for a cell phone? Have you ever used generative Ai and do you understand what where the video processing is done? Maybe not. Well, I'll explain. not on your phone.

So this right here is a backbone controller. It's pretty cool. You can put your uh phone into it and look I'm not a game review Channel over here. But the the point is just to say that this basically turns into a gaming controller just like this and it's a backbone.

You know, a little controller or whatever it is over here. And the cool thing about this is I don't actually use the processors for gaming in my phone I can stream them through Xbox.com and basically have a a virtual gaming machine that I could stream through on here. Now yeah, you should have a low latency internet connection. Uh, but fortunately I got fiber over here so it works very well.

But I basically have an Xbox in my pocket and when I travel if I want to do anything I got a whole Xbox with all the games I could want in my pocket now I rarely use it I generally give it to the kids, but the point is I Just gave you a few examples here of how generative AI could be really incredible. Not only can you generate characters and then animate them for video games or you could generate app ideas, but all of this is being processed not by your devices but by other devices. That's a huge Boon in my opinion to the chips industry because who's processing it? data centers and servers anyway? Goldman Sachs has some uh ideas in terms of how some companies could benefit and so let's uh, let's take a look at that. Uh, all right, so we raise as a result of this piece.

Here, we raise our price targets. Ten dollars on Microsoft Salesforce Five dollars Adobe Five dollars. Oh, it's one of the ones I have exposure to uh to incorporate higher outer year estimates to reflect our conviction in the success slash adoption of newly launched generative AI projects. It's pretty exciting.

Co-pilot Copilot, by the way, is is a fantastic tool for basically helping programmers code a lot faster. Additionally, we highlight companies like Intel Google Amazon Nvidia and Meta as the company's best position to succeed in the new AI driven. Paradigm This is pretty exciting, so I Want to talk about This some more? Uh, and we'll go into some detail here uh, as well as some potential risk factors. We'll go into detail specifically on these companies.

but uh, take a look at uh, how this is starting to also change the media narrative. So look at this. generative AI This was on the front page of the Wall Street Journal Today, generative AI is already changing White Collar Work as we know it and they basically have a whole piece talking about how people are like, oh gosh, we are actually going to see job loss from this and they're talking about how companies from Walmart to Zip recruiter and Yelp are already kind of basically plotting how to use AI to take over the world. quite frankly.

I Think at some point in the future I Think this is just like a very realistic uh, point of view. I Think at some point in the future using Ai and it could be now using AI versus not using AI will be as Extreme as using a computer versus not using a computer like let me use a more relatable example. Well, at least to my generation. Uh, if somebody's like hey, I'm gonna mail you something or I'm going to fax you something and you're like, what the f, why don't you just email it Okay, that's kind of the level of difference that I project for AI and I think that every company in the future will use AI It will be as simple as saying we use email in the future like of course you're going to use AI Then it's just going to come down to which companies are going to be best positioned to use that most effectively.

At my real estate startup, we're very excited about using it. It's still too early for us to let it make decisions for us. way too early for that, but we could definitely use it to to uh to Ping us of uh of certain ideas uh or Trends or deals So we really like that that's already working. It's pretty incredible.

Anyway, let's keep going. So I've actually bought deals from my AI already? Uh, not for my real estate startup but for myself a couple years ago I was using the software I go through the software I'm like oh damn that is a really good deal. It is so like it still takes the human element today, but the potential is like anyway, so what do we got over here? uh, monetization and enterprise software and cloud computing just as cloud hyperscalers like AWS Azure and Google Cloud platform commercialized Cloud infrastructure and platforms which in turn accelerated the growth of software Services businesses. We believe that open Ai's chat GPT will drive adoption of generative AI across software Enterprises In this report, we further explore the opportunities for AI to be integrated into the tech stacks of the future by drawing an analogy between cloud computing and an IT stack layered with Ai.

Ai is expected to drive significant productivity gains for the economy. They estimate potentially seven trillion dollars of global economic growth over a 10-year period with productivity growing 1.5 percentage points faster annually over the same period. In other words, AI could potentially expand our GDP substantially faster than anybody is expecting today. Now, this is actually an argument that the great Kathy Wood tells us.

In fact, when I was at dinner with Kathy Wood she specifically like wanted to drill home Kevin Nobody knows what's coming and it's not like it's a big secret. She talks about this herself as well, but the fact that it came up during dinner just showed me her passion for for this belief and we're seeing more and more of this. It's really, really incredible. So, uh, we believe generative AI can contribute a tam of 150 billion to the global software.

Sac I Agree. Uh, it's also. there's an idea here. Uh, that maybe just maybe we can outgrow China Uh, if we can have an edge on AI versus allowing China to sort of catch up to our GDP so to speak, right? Uh, and that's really a suggestion of maybe the Us being able to insulate itself.

Generative AI Tools have far-reaching implications. Generative AI is enabling sales and marketing teams to generate new content. Devops engines to write faster code or code faster knowledge workers to improve day-to-day office efficiency, and scientists to develop drugs for rare diseases and much more. There are a lot of actually really cool implications.

uh With with artificial intelligence for the healthcare industry, being able to, uh, even just diagnose patient ailments in a way that doctors really haven't been is phenomenal. Sometimes it takes going to a doctor five, six, seven different times to try to get a a conclusion to a certain ailment, whereas if uh, you know an AI was able to, maybe just suggest a solution uh, there, there could potentially uh, be foster medical care or, uh, more urgent care. In the case of Uh indicators that may say hey, there could be something malignant malignant happening. So this is really good for for health care as well.

Uh, and keep this in mind too. Chachi PT is already reportedly replacing workers I Reported on this a few weeks ago, but I think it's a perfect place to reiterate this before we go into a little bit more of that analysis. From Goldman Sachs on which companies and and why uh, companies that reported using Chat GPT to Resume Builder said they use Chatgpt 66 uh for or sixty percent. Six percent of the respondents said they used it for writing code 58 for copywriting Content 57 for customer support 77 for writing job descriptions actually for like listing descriptions on the multiple listing service for Airbnb Well, Airbnb's aren't on there, but for like real estate listings uh or Airbnb itself, car rental descriptions, job descriptions basically copywriters to some extent or or either being aided by chat GPT or just replaced at some point in the future.

Kind of scary time to be a copywriter because essentially you could take a whole document, throw it into a an artificial intelligence program. Go look for you know, run on sentences. Uh, wordy sentences, not just spelling and grammar, but actually like more logic based problems. Uh, you know, hey, where? Where does this not make sense? Where does the sentiment stray? These are some pretty incredible prompts you can ask AI these days and they're already doing a phenomenal job.

Uh, Out of Uh 500 companies interviewed by a resume, a builder, uh, 250 companies, half of them said that Church EPT has already replaced workers at the company. A wild is that it comes at the same time as uh, multiple different Uh companies and Partnerships or are uh, being expanded upon? You know you've got the um, uh, Google you've got Google Partnerships and Google duplex you've got uh Bard over at Microsoft some really incredible expansions. Uh, and Chat Ept4 is substantially more powerful than chat GPT Uh, 3.5 already. Let's keep going here.

So generative. AI We talked about that we expect incumbents. a new wave of innovation across the incumbents. Now, this is such a really incredible argument.

Usually one of the explanations or reasons people say that oh, AI uh or rather Omega caps are a bad investment is because they say mega caps used to be Innovative and that's why they were disruptive and grew as much as they did. but now they're not Innovative anymore. In other words, The Innovation is dead Well AI is being argued to potentially being capable of allowing some of the existing massive companies like Microsoft Alphabet Nvidia Amazon Salesforce Meta into it uh, and Adobe to lead the industry uh in in sort of a new wave of innovation I Think before I may have mentioned Intel I suppose I meant to say it into it. but anyway, that's interesting.

Uh, so then, uh, then there. and mostly because there's a lot of talk about this Innovation slowed down in America so that's very interesting. Uh, so this expands the opportunity for more seamless upsells, cross promotions Cloud providers we expect to use generative AI will drive demand for compute. Compute is great for again the Chip's manufacturing sector.

Uh, see. we've got a little note here about how chips manufacturing companies sell the pickaxes. Well, software have to find the gold. Let's take a look at their talk about Microsoft They think Microsoft has uh, this, uh, this large enhancement to really their edge browser uh and their Bing search experience by including their barred AI into search results.

They see that as as a a pretty good driver of potentially uh Microsoft Edge software usage their browser, which could lead to more potentially advertising sales for Microsoft It's actually really interesting I Was reading a story just yesterday about how ad sales, despite the crazy economy, are expecting to pick up. Actually, it's worth looking at that because it's quite related here. Oh yeah, here it is. U.S Ad sale spending still expected to grow in 2023, despite quote stressful economic signals.

Now that's important for companies that I like exposure to as well like Trade Desk I like to hear that there's still growth in advertising I've actually fled to Trade Desk because I think they're one of the most pure play advertisers that's actually in a a very growing Niche within advertising. But if the entire advertising space still grows, that's even more phenomenal. So I saved this article I was starting to read it a bit yesterday. Let's look at this: A major ad forecaster said advertising is still expected to grow in 2023 despite mixed economic signals a resiliency that industry Pros say would have been unlikely during earlier periods of turbulence media owners and this is this is actually great for Microsoft and Google I actually stopped investing in Google for a while.

Uh and uh and I have many reasons for that. We've been talking about that a lot in the course member live streams, but now I'm starting to wonder hey, is is there potential? Has Google potentially had its Nike Swoosh bottom I mean just to compare to the Nike Swoosh For a moment there's Google You're still kind of bobbing along in that lower region here, but we've definitely inflected off the the low lows. so maybe maybe worth revisiting in our course member livestream today. But let's look at ads here: Media Owners: Us Ad revenues are expected to grow 3.4 to 326 billion this year according to a quarterly forecast from Magna a Media Intelligence and investment firm in interesting, That's actually surprising.

That's uh, slightly down from their December estimate. But the fact that it's still positive for the overall media industry is actually really incredible. 3.4 for the entire industry? That's great The Firm Expects little or no growth in the first half of the Year followed by a recovery in the second half as the economy becomes more stable. Wow.

I Mean this is like this flies in the face of this idea that oh, Q3 Q4 recession This ad buying or this ad analytics firm is actually suggesting no, no things will actually be better in the second half. Now that does sort of get reiterated by a lot of company earnings calls who say they expect their margins to be stronger in the second half as they finally have raised prices. They're not raising prices anymore now, but then they've laid off excess workers and they're becoming a little bit more efficient. That's actually a very interesting argument that the second half may not be as scary as as people keep forecasting that it may be, and that agrees with my Nike Swoosh thesis.

So maybe I'm a bit biased there. Uh, keep in mind, by the way, I I Um, my goal now is to send uh, probably with starting either starting this week or next week. uh, sending daily Buy sell alerts for some trades that I'm doing a few days ago. Uh, we had a really cool sell put opportunity that yielded about Uh 10 and then it's It's actually performed very, very well over the last few days.

Uh, and so we're looking for a lower risk cash opportunities. And so we had a great opportunity on a cell put there where volatility was still high, unnecessarily so. But stuff like that is what you might expect in the course member live streams I'll link down below. Uh, or just go to meet Kevin.com Okay, so let's keep going here.

The economy is showing early signs of improvement in Jan Fab including receding inflation, but slow and steady growth in GDP. We're always expecting more of a Slowdown of 23 with tepid macro expectations, but three months later we see economic signals. Oh wow, listen to this are actually not so bad and some of them are improved if we compared it three months ago. Wow, this is a phenomenal piece by The Wall Street Journal Here, this is actually quite unexpected I Thought I Had to hide in in a trade desk for my advertising exposure, but this is really suggesting that the advertising Market is is, uh, really, still quite strong.

You know, one of the companies that I keep referring to when it comes to advertising, a company that's just spending like crazy is actually Carnival Cruise Lines Uh, oh, my hair is a little wild, isn't It isn't that beautiful though. Don't you like it when my hair is crazy? That's because I'm crazy. see I mean who else would drink coffee out of it? Don't sue me, bro mug. But I appreciate you saying that One positive dude from Twitch that's actually a perfect name.

Appreciate you. But anyway, this is really incredible. Uh so I was gonna say um, I don't remember what I was gonna say. Let's just keep going.

Uh, let's see here. Oh yeah, yeah. Carnival Cruise Lines is advertising like crazy because they were only at 91 occupancy and they're like freaking out trying to get to more occupancy and they can't pull it off. So what are they doing? They're like tripling down on Advertising It's wild.

Uh, anyway. uh, if it was 20 years ago in this economic climate, we'd probably expect advertising spending to fall. But we don't because there are organic growth factors to put against this macro environment that is uncertain. Indeed, the organic drivers that boosted the ad Market in 2021 in the first half of 2022 are still around and mitigating the impact of stressful economic signals.

Automotive Ad spending is also expected to Rebound in 2023 thanks to pent-up uh demand for auto marketing. Wow, this is actually really incredible. Uh, that's awesome. Okay, so great news for advertising.

Let's go back though, since this is really supposed to be about uh chat GPT style stocks here AI across its platform, particularly across core products at Microsoft And here are some various products they have. Okay, Fantastic! Microsoft is in a unique position to uh that basically to augment human productivity you know I Remember when I interviewed Uh, it was a great in-person interview with uh uh, Brett Whitten over at ARC Invest. He suggested that AI in the future will just be basically embedded right into our Google spreadsheets or our Microsoft Excel and so we'll be able to tell AI hey, and to some extent you could already do this. Hey, you know I don't want to do all this work Can you basically do this for me And with the click of a button, it's done.

Uh, I mean I used to spend eight to ten hours a day building spreadsheets and I'm really familiar with with the efforts and and tribulations that come with building spreadsheets and golly if if AI could check your logic even. Oh oh, it's great and it's already doing that. I Mean you could go through some some Twitter posts where people purposefully take code that they deleted some code from and they inject it into AI or the Chat Gpt4 and they're like hey, can you fact check this and the a is like Ai's like oh, it looks like you know there's a section missing. This would actually work if you injected this piece of code in and it has no idea what you deleted but it basically finds exactly what the problem is in the code and adds it right back in for you.

It's scary. It's like A. It's like a self-healing robot that actually kind of makes me think of video games. like when you when you shoot the alien and then they look down at their bullet wound and it just heels back up.

It's like is that all you got oh two Transformers these. Uh anyway, oh man, hey, this is the perfect spot to remind you to get life insurance in as little as five minutes because we have no idea when the robots are gonna take over and kill us all. I Think this is probably not the best way to advertise life insurance because it's a little bit gloomy and you know, hey, we got to put the paid prom emotion thing up here. But uh yeah, you could get it in as little as five minutes by going to Metcavin.com Life All right here we go.

So uh, all right. so Microsoft Fantastic. prioritizing. r d Okay, great alphabet going back Five years ago Google began a series of introduction outlining how AI will be the driving force behind many of the company's products.

Alongside a broader Computing shift including Google assistance, assistant, duplex lens translate blah blah blah blah, we see the recent announcement of Bard as an extension of these efforts to match product uh, iteration and continuing the evolution of search with recent customer excitement about chat. GPT Of course. Okay, great. So what are we gonna do? Uh, what are their examples They want to infuse all of its products with AI such as Maps YouTube's recommendation Engine Auto Complete on Gmail Autocomplete on Gmail is already pretty dang good.

Uh, In addition, we see Google at the Forefront of an AI driven automation within digital advertising with performance Max it's automated end to end campaign Management Service that optimizes spend across inventory. Okay, now that's actually pretty brilliant. This potential that you could actually just have and maybe they already have it. Based on this thing called performance, you could potentially have, uh, an ad campaign.

and then, rather than you monitoring it or having someone else monitor it that you're paying for, you basically just have Ai monitor your campaigns. Now, why is that important? Because when you spend money for ads, you end up as a business spending more money when the ads do well. So there's an incentive for the ads to do very well for everyone. like Google Wants your ads to succeed right? because then you'll spend more money? Well, what if your ad starts out doing really well and then people get numb to it? Well, maybe AI can kind of do that for you by by transitioning some of the wording or changing it up a little bit so quick little.

Google Here on Oh Performance: Max So I'm like Googling about Google That just seems monopolistic. Anyway, Performance: Max is a new Global based campaign type that allows Performance Advertisers to access all of their Google ads inventory from a single campaign designed to complement your keyword-based search campaigns to help you discover more, converting customers across across all channels. Performance: Max helps you drive performance based on your goals. Performance: Max Combines Google's automation Technologies across bidding, budget, optimization, attribution, and more.

See, that's actually pretty smart. That's fantastic. Uh, I I Mean that's that's a game changer for advertising. Honestly, that's really cool.

Uh, Google's Ads Automation uses machine learning to grow your business. You can input your unique expertise such as budget business goals and conversions you want to measure. Google Ads Automation will find potential customers for your goals and serve the most appropriate ad with optimal bid and maximize campaign performance. I Want to maximize performance I Love maximizing performance.

All right. So that's cool with internet coverage. alphabet leading the leading, blah blah blah Okay, that's just pitchy over here. Multi-track record? Okay, whatever.

Nvidia What do we have over here? We envisioned a whole host of semiconductor companies across Compute Network and memory landscape benefiting from the proliferation of AI. we continue to highlight Nvidia a stock recently upgraded to buy I've got a big position Nvidia as well I Feel biased reading this one, but whatever to support the production development of larger models whether it be for major cloud hyperscalers or for Enterprise customers. As we stated in our upgrade node, here, we model an acceleration of the raid in Nvidia's wallet share. Within the context of overall cloud, Capex is a growing percentage of data center compute.

Okay, basically stock go up is what they're trying to say here. Furthermore, to the extent there's any doubt related to the sustainability of Nvidia's competitive position, we believe the generation, the acceleration, and AI development will, if anything, serve to extend the company's leadership. Notice how they're not talking AMD over here. that's pretty incredible.

That's awesome. Wow! While much of the focus around the theme of generative AI has been dominated by a market share by search and gross margins, blah blah blah We Believe Enterprises push deeper into machine learning with companies like Amazon Interesting. AWS is exposed to this theme in a number of ways through their AI machine learning services such as Amazon Lex Poly Transcribe Comprehend Kendra Translate Sagemaker among others. It's a good point, you know I mean again, a lot of these.

A lot of these platforms are hosted at a company like Google or Amazon and then you basically let them do the compute for you the same advertising benefit that Google saw could be talked about at Amazon as well. Uh, that's pretty incredible. Wow, All right. Salesforce As part of Salesforce's path to unlocking value, we outline the view that the incorporation of generative AI have long tail benefits for the companies for end user experience.

Okay, I'm gonna like keep and this is they announced: Einstein GPT for sales and marketing and stuff. Something that's really cool about AI for sales is the potential to predict when you should actually reach out to your customer. Well, I I think that's really, really cool. Uh, the when I was a real estate agent I was still a real estate broker, but when I was actively selling real estate I'd have my own customer resource manager that I built which was pretty basic but it was still awesome.

It was perfect and so I would look and go. Oh, I haven't followed up with this client in X number of days. but one of the things that I was always frustrated by was I would look at the list and I would go okay even though I haven't followed up with this client in 45 days. I Personally know that I shouldn't follow up with this client until six months from now, but I personally know I should follow up with this client not after 45 days but after 10 days because they're very hot and the other person's very cold.

uh or but but will be hot in the future Anyway, that sort of thinking I'm personally trying to predict well a machine could probably do that a lot better than me. So I actually it's very interesting I Kind of agree. that's actually very interesting from a from a customer Resource manager point of view. AI could be a game changer for Salesforce I Hadn't even thought about that, but now that I'm putting myself in the shoes of a sales representative, Hell yeah, Meta, we see Meta as in okay, so I've been like I've had problems with mentally with Meta because they're so convinced on this like virtual reality? uh and and AI personally I think virtual reality is is like 20 30 years away I think augmented reality will be bitching like I want to just put regular glasses on? Do I have any glasses here? I don't have any glasses I just want to put regular glasses on and and be able to have like I don't know? News feeds or like news alerts pop up on screen.

you know. kind of like imagine walking around while you're listening to a YouTube video and then all of a sudden a banner pops up that reminds you about courses and an ETF and a real estate startup and affiliate links. Yeah, anyway, so okay back to uh so anyway I don't like that they're spending all this money over there beta, but it's been a great place since they're lows of about 80 bucks. I'll give them that.

uh. so anyway, what do we have over here? So they see 110 billion in Capex, the majority of which is going to Meta's AI Investments With regard to generative, AI Specifically, Meta has launched a number of products including: make a Scene and make a video, a text to image and text to video model uh to to optimize blah blah blah access to their artificial intelligence and API whatever. Uh, same thing with ad targeting. That's true, they'll have the benefit of AD targeting generative AI Debates will likely persist for them.

Yes I agree Reels? Uh, Okay, cool. Adobe though Adobe made its first announcement under the Generative AI umbrella at its Summit conference last week. We highlighted Adobe's early investments in AI machine Learning Tech evidenced by the release of Sensai as in 2016 .. So I wonder how they could do that like I wonder if you could use AI to basically build an architectural rendering for you? That probably that would be really cool if you were like an architect.

uh I was I I don't know why I'm thinking AutoCAD right here but AutoCAD uh is uh, is not Adobe AutoCAD does a lot of architectural work uh and uh I wonder if you could use AI over there to sort of generate models like if you could take a matterport scan and then have ai do the actual like 2D plan for you appropriately and fact check it because there's some conversion problems from matterport that'd be pretty sick because now you're really taking the the real world and able to manipulate it with generative. AI That's crazy Anyway, Adobe would be more of your like after effects or Photoshop. or Lightroom I mean quite frankly, some of the AI that you could use now already with like Lightroom to automatically enhance your photos is really good. It's pretty incredible.

Church EPT was the fastest application to exceed 100 Uh users. Pretty incredible. How does it work? fine? Whatever. Uh, I did want to also hit this story here.

this is a financial. Remember how I was talking about how the Wall Street Journal was talking about basically jobs being affected. Financial Times takes it a step further and goes as many as 300 million jobs could be affected. and potentially how because AI is going to get so strong we could actually end up seeing a significant disruption to the labor market.

exposing 300 million full-time workers to automation. Lawyers and administrative staff would be the among the greatest risk of becoming redundant. Wow. Lawyers I Didn't even think about lawyers I mean I Still think you need great people who could present a case.

but if you could have Ai, do your case law searching for you and like go through these 5 000 cases and find me case Law related to my case. oh my God Oh that's a game changer because you have to like pay people lots of money right now to do to do research or like. When you do Discovery you know and you get a box of 5 000 pages of documents, scan it up and tell AI find incriminating evidence and then Stitch a story together about how this person's a criminal or fraud or whatever. Oh my God that's crazy Uh, I didn't even think about lawyers I mean I get it from the point of view of like, like you know, document prep but uh, wow.

To calculate that roughly two-thirds of jobs in the U.S and Europe are exposed to some degree of AI automation Based on data and tasks typically performed in thousands of occupations. Most people would see less than half their workload automated uh, and probably see their jobs continue. Well, yeah, sure, because we've got a lot of workers around the world, but still, 300 million job losses? That'd be crazy. and that's just with what we know right now.

Uh, we could see 63 percent of the U.S Workforce affected thirty percent unaffected. Probably like honestly, construction, right? like I mean you swing in a hammer. it's going to be a while before you get your Optimus bot to come swing your hammer for you. Wow, that's wild.

Here's another one: AI develops cancer treatment in 30 days and predicts survival weight New York Post No Wow. Here's a use case to show the capability and complexity. Uh that AI can replace artificial intelligence. Just developed a treatment for cancer in just 30 days and can predict a patient's survival rate.

A new study published in the Journal of Chemical Science researchers at the University of Toronto along with In Silicone Medicine developed a potential treatment for some form of carcinoma. carcinoma that's like a that's like a skin fist cancer, right? I Don't know? Whatever. I'm not a doctor I'm not a stock doctor. Uh, where's my doctor thing anyway? Uh with an AI drug Discovery platform called Pharma AI HCC is the most.

Oh, it's a liver. see that just tells you how wrong I was HCC is the most common type of liver cancer that occurs when a tumor grows on the liver. Okay AI Powered protein structure database from Pharma AI uncovered a novel Target a previously unknown treatment pathway for cancer and developed a novel hit molecule that can bind to the Target without. Aid Dude, are you serious? Holy crap that is absolutely incredible.

Uh uh wow, that is. That's really really awesome. Any potential drug would need to go through clinical trials before widespread use. Yeah, you know what we're going to get next.

we're going to get AI clinical trials. Uh well. the AI took the drug and the AI survived. AI is rapidly changing the way drugs and Medicine are discovered and developed from traditional methods of trial and errors which are slow and expensive which limit the scope of expansion.

Alpha Fold broke new scientific ground and predicting the structure of proteins. Protein folding, by the way, is uh, something? I basically know nothing about I am clearly and incompetent when it comes to protein folding. but apparently when you're trying to do like genetic work, you're trying to predict how basically proteins in your body or in nature can be created and we're really bad at doing that. But AI is apparently really good at doing that.

So if you care about folding proteins, this is good. that's that's about as deep as I could go. I'm sorry like that I will just be transparent with you. There are some things I just don't understand.

Um yeah. cool cool pictures. Trials, medicines. look at that in Vivo in vitro.

uh in life in Petri dish see look I'm an expert I know what I'm talking about anyway. uh, this is really cool. Uh wait wait wait wait wait wait wait in Silico? Wait, what? what? Wait a second. Wait a sec.

Wait a sec. This is what I I was joking about. Like uh, discoveries? uh, like doing clinical trials in In In? uh, um, in chips and that. But uh, that's kind of what they're talking about here.

AI could be a Cutting Edge technology for future cancer tear. Yeah, yeah, I mean that's basically okay. Yeah, that's basically what they described earlier about being able to figure out uh uh, a new potential cure for cancer. That's crazy.

Really, Really, cool. So I have to say AI Absolutely phenomenal. And if any of this makes you nervous, get life insurance in as little as five minutes. Make sure you check out the programs on building your wealth link down below.

We're starting again with our Buy sell alerts. We just did some awesome uh sell uh put alerts uh for something that ended up playing out really well I Hope to have many more of those great plays uh and uh yeah I Look forward to also you getting yourself 12 free stocks of Weeble that Kevin.com Weeble and go to Housenac.com if you're an accredited investor because an expiration for that on the first person foreign GDP and jobless claims that just came out. These and this data just came out. We got initial claims for jobless data coming in at 198.

A thousand jobless claims. the expectation was 195.. the more jobless claims we get, the more of a sign that maybe some of the impacts of higher rates are starting to hit. The last report was 191.

We were expecting 195. We got 198.. continuing claims unfortunately, though, well, I guess good for the individual, but not so great for necessarily the economy came in low. The estimate was 1.7 mil.

We came in at 1.689 suggesting people were able to get right back into the labor market. Uh, we did get GDP annualized quarter over quarter at 2.6 slightly lower than the survey and Last Read of 2.7 We also got personal little consumption which has officially dropped Last Read 1.4 percent the current survey 1.4 current result: one percent so miss on personal consumption GDP Price Index stable at 3.9 percent. That is consistent with the prior and the survey core Pce quarter over quarter. That's the quarter measure of the personal consumption expenditure That is not to be confused with the data that we get Friday morning on the 31st, which would be the month over month and year-over-year figures for Pce quarter over quarter Pce actually Rose a little bit to 4.4 percent, up from the priority to 4.3 and the survey of 4.3 So what do we make of this? Well, somewhat mixed data here.

a little bit higher on the core inflation numbers here on, uh, on the quarter over quarter, GDP a little slower than expected and Retail and personal consumption coming in slightly lower than expected. We don't necessarily like that, because what we want to do is avoid a recession while at the same time inflation comes down. We just got the opposite right. We got a little bit more inflation and a little bit less GDP and a little bit less retail sales.

so we actually went today's these numbers that just came out a little closer to recession a little further away on the battle for ending inflation and the inflationary fears. So I would say Not fantastic. I'd like to take a quick look to see how the market is responding to that. These are not horribly different though from expectations.

so they're pretty close and the market initially had a slight red Candlestick on the NASDAQ we slightly red candlesticked over uh to the Uh, in this case 200 minute moving average. However, we immediately green candle staked right after that on the NASDAQ So it looks like the market is is willing to accept more patience here. The same thing happened over here on the 200 minute candle for the S P 500. Another place that we can look will be the Uh.

let's look at yields. so let's see how yields are moving. Specifically, bonds looks like bonds basically flat. On this news here, we've got the tenure sitting at 3.572 If we compare this to the two-year treasury yield, we'll be able to look for an inversion of the yield curve and remember it's generally the sub subsequent re-steepening of the yield curve that is the most painful two-year sitting right now at 4.126 so still inverted on the twos tens over here.

And a lot of folks say that you get the inversion basically right when you hit recession. So something to keep in mind there. Let's take a look at what Wall Street is suggesting about this uh and potentially also CNBC. So let's give them a quick listen here.

Right here. Joe Yesterday and today? Um, all right, how's the days in? Okay, you have any room service? Um, no. Joe We're at a pretty decent hotel here. You know we've been doing this for a while.

When you jump over to CNBC sometimes they just talk about nonsense. Uh, anyway. so uh, no real comments from Wall Street just yet. Uh, let's see if they actually have any from on CNBC Yes.

otherwise I'll go to Bloomberg why don't they show up in JavaScript I Think the story Joe that I came up with at the very beginning and seems to be the case right now is they seem to be getting jobs. Or maybe it's just the extended Uh b