Hey guys, it's Sasha Panic is hitting the stock market and I think this is great. Let me explain. this morning, the Oecd has called on central banks to keep increasing rates much higher and they specifically called out the FED saying that the FED has to keep increasing rates because inflation is now a massive problem. You see Oecd are a bunch of super smart experts and we should probably listen to them because in December 2021 they said that the global recovery is strong and the global economy is going to Boom in 2022.

and in this report they said that inflation in the US is going to Peak the following month in January 2022 and would then fall back to 2.5 by the end of the year because you see inflation is transitory and it would go away all by itself with no need to increase rates by the FED For the first time in history and at the exact same time that they were saying this I made this video it was called Stock Market Crash is the only way to stop inflation Question mark posted on the 13th December 2021 and here is what I said the beginning of that video. Hey guys, it's Sasha Inflation in the United States is a very serious threat to the stock market, so if you're investing, you need to pay attention, but nobody out there seems to be talking about it. In fact, last week the media and US officials seem to be celebrating that the inflation rate was 6.8 percent, just 6.8 because I guess there was a risk that it could be even higher And there is a lot to celebrate. It's only the highest rate that inflation has been since 1982, and if you look at the relative increase in the last 18 months or so is going up faster than at any rate since the beginning of the 1950s.

So that's only about 70 years ago. And this is, actually, if you look at it with any rational mind, a Huge problem. A much bigger problem than I Think a lot of people realize. But here we are.

and today, these same clowns from the Oecd who have no idea what it is that they are talking about are actively encouraging the central banks around the world, including the FED to keep increasing interest rates Because now 14 months after that previous report. Now, inflation is a really big problem and it's just so bad. And it's so obvious. even though inflation is on the way down, and all key indicators are saying that inflation will keep falling and potentially collapse in the next six months.

And even though reports like the Producer Price Index is showing a huge fall in inflation already, that report is usually a predecessor, a precursor to the data filtering through into the Consumer Price Index The CPI The important one. Look final demand. Inflation fell from 5.7 to 4.6 in just one month in February that's massive and look, energy is minus 0.2 month to month transportation is minus 1.1 percent The two items that were hot Traders minus 0.8 and the most resilient part of the Consumer Price Index Food while producer prices fell 2.2 month-to-month in February This is big news, except nobody is talking about it because it ain't popular and it ain't Panic The problem with dimwits like the Oecd is that for some unfathomable reason Everyone likes to listen to their opinion. They are the experts when it comes to economics even though they're repeatedly completely 100 fail to identify any major economic issues until six months after they happen.

And when I saw this news this morning I was happy because at the same time I also saw all the analysts on CNBC this morning trip over each other tell you how bad the banking crisis is. Oh my. God is the worst ever how every major Bank in the world is about to collapse. This also made me happy.

I saw the YouTubers get super excited about yet another wave of red Market Days doing their usual constipated thumbnails telling you that every single day the banks are going to fail and then we have the social media mob who are busy discussing the end of quantitative tightening because is the Fed's balance sheet went up after Banks took up their offer of money to improve liquidity. According to financial experts on Twitter who have never worked a single day of their life in finance, this is called quantitative easing and this will mean inflation is now going to go back up because you know the FED is pumping money back into the economy now. I Don't usually make a habit of arguing with idiots, but I Also appreciate that these Muppets are actually scaring people. And here is my quick: 10 cents.

Five cents, Two cents. However many cents you want. The FED announced emergency measures after Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Which means that banks are now able to borrow money in a form of loans from the FED to shore up their balance sheets.

This money is not just being dished out. This prevents the risk of Bank runs because this is the main actual risk that banks are currently carrying because their balance sheet is made up of assets that carry unrealized losses if they had to sell them all at the same time immediately, and if they had to do that, they would all go under every single U.S Bank would go under because that's how the system works works. But if there isn't a bank run where everyone turns up to withdraw their cash at the same exact time, then there is no actual problem because over time these low yield bonds will get diluted by higher yield bonds that are being purchased continuously every single month. Because old ones are coming to maturity, new deposits are replacing old ones, and a balance sheet problem stops being a problem.

But Banks Borrowing cash to solidify their balance sheet at the moment is not inflationary because no money is actually entering the economy. This money is not going to be lent out by the Banks because they're all excited and then spend by the businesses and people borrowing it. In fact, this is enabling the exact opposite. It is allowing the banks to retain their ability to operate smoothly.

It is retaining their right to not need to go do some kind of wacko stuff like race Capital sell debt or begin doing something weird or promo. And as the balance sheets improves naturally over time and these loans will be going right back to the FED. But I Guess saying this doesn't induce an immediate sense of panic. It doesn't make you afraid, so it doesn't make for good content on YouTube or on Twitter which is why exactly nobody's saying this.

But I Digress. As it stands, if you zoom out of the day-to-day the world is at the highest levels of panic we have seen since the financial slowdown started. Just look at the headlines: Banks are about to fail. The biggest crash ever is coming this year.

Prepare for the worst ever recession. Build a bunker in your backyard for the inevitable Anarchy that is going to follow. Central banks are going to keep increasing rates whether it makes sense or not because central banks are really dumb. You know that narrative.

You see a big problem with social media is that as a recency bias, and it rewards degenerate imbeciles who amplify the most scary rhetoric that is based on that recency bias. Humans are not naturally good at spotting a change in the trend at identifying inflection points because that's not how we were programmed. If we see any two points of information, we just draw a straight line through it and presume that all other points must sit on the same line. And this is exactly why everybody was euphoric at the end of 2021, at the tail end of one of the biggest bull runs in history ever.

And it is exactly why everyone is panicking right now and throwing their toys out of the pram and absolutely going nuts. Panic doesn't reward consideration if you happen to Veer off the path of the accepted narrative. you are told that you don't understand what you're talking about and get told this every single day Hundreds of times. Everyone loves to quote Warren Buffett's line from two of his I think investor letters where he says that you should be fearful when everyone is greedy, but be greedy only when everyone is fearful.

but very few people actually seem to apply this. Mantra In practice, in fact, almost everybody does the exact opposite and this is why I am enjoying all this so much. I'm getting a crazy number of comments on all of my videos at the moment telling me that I just don't understand anything, the world is ending and I'm an idiot for not thinking that the entire world as we know is about to collapse and for not telling you that it is 100 going to collapse and you must sell all of your stocks because it is definitely going to crash every single Finance content creator seems to be in this permanent state of constipation, telling you that the sky is about to fall in and now I'm not sure if we are in Peak fear or if this could get even worse because it can get worse. but what I do know is that it is not common.

In fact, it is very unusual for these moments of unanimous massive Panic to overlap with data that indicates that the Panic is perhaps somewhat unwarranted. U.S Banks just got a helping hand from the US government to solve the one relatively minor issue on their balance sheet that was being blown completely out of proportion by the dimwits trying to start a bank run. Credit Suisse Just got their funding and the guarantee of more funding from the Swiss banking regulator, too. Inflation is on the way down.

All data you can look at points to inflation collapsing in the next six months. Energy inflation is down shelter. inflation is Now Tracking above the real world price growth. the Fed rate is almost at par with inflation already, and the wage inflation spiral did not take off.

Unemployment is at record lows. Employment hasn't fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, but has recovered substantially and is now at roughly 2018 levels. The stock market continues to be suppressed while GDP had a very strong second half of last year and from where I am sitting I am not seeing the negative macro Outlook that everyone is selling now. I don't have a crystal ball I Don't waste my time making specific predictions and these are turbulent times.

So the usual thing that will happen and on a red day like what we've been seeing today so far, a bunch of numpties will turn up and tell me instead. Your video didn't age well in my garden. Three days since you posted it, the market actually dropped 0.6 percent. Oh my.

God But I'm not here for those people and I'm not here for trying to figure out exactly what will happen on any given day. I Don't care. Just like in that video that I showed you from December 2021 I Am here to tell you what I actually think Based on data based on analysis and not based on noise and trying to sell you. Whatever the popular is these days, you know the drill.

Crypto is popular all aboard the Crypto hype train. Oh no, AMC is popular. Quick go and repurpose your content and start talking about AMC as though you've always loved the dying cinema company. Go and praise the Apes even if you don't actually understand anything about how a short squeeze actually works and how complex the mechanics behind it can be, Stock market goes up.

Go and tell everyone it will go up forever. Stock market goes down and oh my. God Tell everyone the biggest Market crashes on the way every single day and when the big YouTubers all do this or the small YouTubers go and do exactly the same thing because you know monkey See monkey do. The one thing I do know is that there are few opportunities that come about when the sentiment is so strongly and so unanimously negative.

while the numbers are telling you a very different story. Maybe the market will go down from here. Maybe it won't But as far as buying opportunities go, I look at this and I get seriously excited I Have no idea how long this is going to last, but I really hope that it lasts into the summer so that I have plenty of opportunity to load up on my favorite chocolate bars selling a 60 discounts while everybody is busy selling me those chocolate bars that they were buying at full price just a few months ago. If you found this video useful, please don't forget to smash the like button for the YouTube algorithm.

Thank you so much for watching I Really appreciate it and as always I'll see you guys later. Thank you.