A BIG stock market crash is coming. And we all have two questions:
1. When is it going to happen?
2. What should you do to prepare?
In this video I will discuss both of these questions and offer some interesting insight as to the factors involved and the difference in today's stock market compared to previous crashes.
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One thing that is certain in the world of investing is that every now and then the markets crash.
As the markets go up like they have done over the last 14 months, they also come down and share prices can fall as much as 40% to 50%.
While it's impossible to tell exactly when a market crash will happen or how bad the collapse will be, there are some useful things that you can think about that can help your investing strategy through this period.
DISCLAIMER: Some of these links may be affiliate links. If you purchase a product or service using one of these links, I will receive a small commission from the seller. There will be no additional charge for you.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor and this is not a financial advice channel. All information is provided strictly for educational purposes. It does not take into account anybody's specific circumstances or situation. If you are making investment or other financial management decisions and require advice, please consult a suitably qualified licensed professional.
#StockMarket #Stocks #Investing #Markets #Marketcrash
1. When is it going to happen?
2. What should you do to prepare?
In this video I will discuss both of these questions and offer some interesting insight as to the factors involved and the difference in today's stock market compared to previous crashes.
💵 INVESTING PLATFORMS THAT I USE
SIGN UP TO INVEST WITH ETORO
https://med.etoro.com/B15358_A95689_TClick_SSasha.aspx
67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Your capital is at risk. Other fees may apply.
GET A FREE SHARE WORTH UP TO $150 WITH STAKE (UK, Australia, NZ)
https://hellostake.pxf.io/qnA3xq
You will get a free share if you sign up using this link and deposit a minimum of £50.
GET A FREE SHARE WORTH UP TO £200 WITH FREETRADE
https://magic.freetrade.io/join/sasha-yanshin
You need to sign up and make any deposit to get the free share.
GET A FREE SHARE WORTH UP TO £100 WITH TRADING 212
Use my link: https://www.trading212.com/invite/FzYbCfTM
You need to sign up and make any deposit to get the free share.
One thing that is certain in the world of investing is that every now and then the markets crash.
As the markets go up like they have done over the last 14 months, they also come down and share prices can fall as much as 40% to 50%.
While it's impossible to tell exactly when a market crash will happen or how bad the collapse will be, there are some useful things that you can think about that can help your investing strategy through this period.
DISCLAIMER: Some of these links may be affiliate links. If you purchase a product or service using one of these links, I will receive a small commission from the seller. There will be no additional charge for you.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor and this is not a financial advice channel. All information is provided strictly for educational purposes. It does not take into account anybody's specific circumstances or situation. If you are making investment or other financial management decisions and require advice, please consult a suitably qualified licensed professional.
#StockMarket #Stocks #Investing #Markets #Marketcrash
Hey guys, it's sasha, a big financial crash is coming and we all have two questions. When is it going to happen, and what do you need to do to go and prepare for it? Well, let's go and discuss both those questions, because if there's one thing that is certain both in the world of personal finance and physics, is that everything that goes up eventually will come back down. We've all had an incredible 14 months since the crash last year, the market has had one of the biggest bull runs, we've ever seen in history. In fact, if you invested your money into the s p 500 at the bottom of the market on march 23 2020, you would be up 90 on your investment right now.
So when is the market going to crash? Well, we've had a few really interesting and quite telling signs over the last few weeks. Just this past week, the market started wobbling and wobbling quite considerably. On wednesday, the market died by 2.2 percent in one day. That's the overall total market, not the kind of tech sell-offs that we've been seeing over the last few weeks and then on the very next day it climbed back up by 2.3 percent.
Those are pretty big numbers and now we've had the big tech sell-off with tesla. Dropping from its all-time high of 900 per share down to below 550 just a few days ago, with the whole tech sector following suit, then there are the traditional market indicators that get brought out all the time by economists, the schiller p e ratio measures, the average Multiplier of the s, p, 500 company's earnings to their valuation and at the moment, we're sitting at 36.9, which is the highest it has ever been, except for the dot-com crash 20 years ago. But you could well say that there was a huge difference between now and the peaks in the last few crashes. Because since the financial crash of 2008, we have lived through an unprecedented technology boom.
And it's very easy to forget that the very first iphone came out in late 2007. Literally just before the crash happened. And since then we have had a huge rise in technology that has improved almost every single facet of our lives to an impossibly large degree. And we are now seeing a continuation of that ongoing.
We have electric cars that are driving themselves coming down the line, a massive revolution in the way that we all work and we're all moving to renewable energy. These are massive undertakings that are happening right now, and so naturally, we have had a large number of companies spring up that have very large pe ratios, because they are young technology companies that are not yet making large profits. So the multiplier of the value takes in future earnings, rather than today's earnings. 15 years ago, before the financial crash happened, the biggest companies in the s p 500 were the likes of exam mobile, citigroup, walmart aig.
There was one tech company in the top ten, and that was microsoft. Today, the top five companies in the s p 500 are apple, microsoft, amazon, google and facebook, with tesla up right up there before the share price fell as well, and unlike the dot com boom. This is not an artificial inflation of websites where valuations were based purely on hype, without any kind of real numbers, backing them up, we're seeing a serious shift in power and a shift in how we all live our lives. I'd say a similar time in our history was the late 1800s, when the second industrial revolution brought bicycles, cars, trains, modern ships, the telephone and electricity, and that was a massive transformation. And if you look at that same schiller, chart the peak in 1901, 1902 then gradually reduced over time, and that wasn't because of a major crash. It was because those early stage companies that had the large multipliers became more mature and naturally the multipliers decreased as well. Then there's the warren buffett indicator, which indicates that the market is hugely overvalued when taking the total market capitalization of the us market and dividing it by gdp except the tech boom that i talked about breaks this pattern and breaks this indicator and that's a really important Thing to understand, because those big tech companies that i mentioned, like google and apple and microsoft, they operate globally and the valuation is based on their global reach, not just on the us market, and although the us economy is very big, the rest of the world combined Is more than three times bigger, so when the buffett indicator divided by us gdp, i don't think it makes any actual sense today, because that is not the market that those big us companies now serve. In fact, if we're genuinely comparing to the 1950s and the 1960s, when the majority of the big u.s companies almost exclusively cater to the us market, and we take today's valuation and divided by the global gdp, instead we get a number of 54.5 percent.
So perhaps the market is not as overvalued as it might seem, but 90 growth per year will not keep going forever and eventually the market will have to go down. Some say it can't happen soon because we had a crash just 14 months ago, but we did see three major crashes in the 1930s and we saw other examples within two years, each other in the early 60s, most importantly with only about 100 years or so of Real market history - we just haven't had enough time to know for sure, for example, the bull run that we're seeing right now is also unprecedented, and most people would say it is impossible too. The most common misconception with the market crashes is that people who are invested in the market will lose a lot of money when one of those happens - and here is why that generally isn't the case, the biggest market crash can lose as much as 40 to 50 Percent, although a lot of them lose not quite as much, but that loss is only from the very peak before the crash happens down to the bottom, just after it happens. If you look at just to the left of the peak and then you look just to the right of the bottom, you'll usually see a massively different scenario, where you'll probably only see about a 10 to 20 drop or even a sharp rebound after the crash. As happened last year, and because investors will invest their money over a long period of time, it is almost impossible to go and invest all of it, or at least a very large chunk right on the day when the peak happens and then sell it right at The bottom, unless you try extremely hard, so anyone who invests in the market consistently over time will be investing in the run-up to that peak and when they've been investing for some time. That also means that they'll be investing at prices that will be lower than the bottom of the market after the market crashes because of staying in the market for long enough. The same holds for continuing to invest after the crash happens. In fact, shortly after the market crash takes hold is often one of the best times to invest in the market, while everybody else panics call it dollar cost averaging or whatever else you like, buying shares at a huge discount, because the market is running on emotion.
This is where the money can really be made. Some people panic and sell their stocks when they see the market dropping because they don't want the stock to fall even further and it wants to go and pull the money out, hoping that they go and buy back. In when it begins going back up, but that is probably one of the worst things that you can do, because, usually by the time that you pull the trigger, the market has probably already lost a big bulk of its value. And if you then don't own the shares, just after you reach the bottom, you'll miss out on the biggest rises in the stock market, which often happen as part of the rebound after the market crash.
Look at the days when the s p 500 had the biggest ever percentage gains, you'll notice that all of the top 10 come immediately after big crashes in the 1930s, the 2008 crash and the crash last year. So if you are not invested on those best days, you can go and miss out on 10 best days over a 20-year period, and then, if you do that, your returns will be three times less than if you just stayed in the market. Based on this jp morgan study, and if you sell more often and miss out on more of the rebounds, you will actually be losing money as the market continues. Growing.
One popular way of taking advantage of a big drop is keeping a massive load of cash waiting for it to happen. This is a strategy that people like warren buffett are known to favor and other investors, and it is true if the market goes down by 30 to 40 from a peak if you go and dump a load of your money into the market. At that point, you'll usually get really big results in the long term, because essentially you're giving yourself that 30 40 benefit over having invested that money just before the crash, if you start holding your cash too early, however, you might find that you miss out on growth Of the stock and the stock market never actually falls to the level at which you could have invested. So it's a game of roulette where you have to go and pick the point yourself if you choose to go and use that kind of strategy as to when you want to begin saving cash and when you think it makes sense to invest that cash instead, if You held on to your cash waiting for the big crash in the early 1950s, the mid 1980s or the early 90s. The market would actually never ever drop low enough and you would lose out on 100 plus gains by trying to time the market. The best thing to remember is if you're investing for the long term. If you're consistently investing your money over time, then every single market crash is followed at some point by a new record high. The problem is, how long will it take to reach that record high, because we saw last year that can take just a few months and it can rebound incredibly quickly, but it could also take 14 years as we saw after the dot-com boom, or it could take 30 years has happened in the 1930s, 40s and 50s, but as you can see, there are actual strategies and actual ways of making money even during market crash and remember that time in the market always beats timing.
The market.
When do think we’ll stop calling them “tech companies” and instead just call them “companies”?
Australia had a crash from a peak in NOV 2007 wiping almost exactly 50% off the market. It took… get this…. 12 YEARS to get back to that level. There was NO V-shaped recovery.
There are very long periods over which the market recovers its peak. Imagine selling a market around current levels and waiting to repurchase when it better reflects fundamental value. Timing the market requires more effort but it can massively increase returns. A dollar invested in the Nasdaq in early 2000 would have taken until 2017 to return an inflation adjusted dollar. Assume you'd listened to the signal of overvaluation say 20% from peak, and allowed the market to rise 20% from trough before re-entry. You hold until today, when signals abound that the market is 'toppy'. You don't need to assume it's the top, just that it's overpriced. So you sell. Your gain from 1999-2021 would be three times greater than a simple buy and hold strategy. A less impressive but still impressive result would arise had you sold in late 2019. Sure, you'd be kicking yourself for having lost the last 1200 points of growth but that hypothical could have been offset by btd in April or May 2020. Or June, for that matter. Now, you could say that predictions are easier when it comes to the past but there really are no predictions described. A range of more moderate strategies could improve outcomes, such as having sold at around 3000 pre covid, buying back the same shares much cheaper amidst the covid crash, and side lining the cash difference.
This might be a dumb question but if it ever reaches a point where the amount I invested gets to $0, does that mean that even when the share value grows I won't have any money left?
I invested £2,500 so I don’t have much to lose. If the crash happens I hope it happens during October as thats when I plan to add another £1,000 to my investments 😂
I planned to invest my savings into an Etf like the sp 500 . Should I wait for the crash to happen first ?
Great video. +1. I have money to spend. It is sleeping on my account for nothing. I want to invest in papers like Apple, Microsoft etc. Long term papers. When do I invest? now? or wait for a crash? When will the crash come? thanks
I feel like another relevant point (MY OPINION; NOT ADVICE): if you invest in a portfolio of stocks (vs. indexes/funds)…you may well NEVER recover, even if the "market" fully "recovers" and surges ahead with big gains. How so? Because over time, even when indexes go up and up, actual portfolios of companies, show that, some percentage of the holdings will go to ZERO. Why? Because companies, over time, go to zero; they go bankrupt; obsoleted, et al. Therefore "that" equity goes to zero, and never recovers…even though the indexes show great numbers. I blv this reality is proven out in the following: If you look at the "Dow" (Industrials) from over a 120 years ago – the Dow of 1900, and compare to the Dow of 2021 – you will notice that there is (if my research is correct) ONLY ONE COMPANY REMAINING! (I BLV IT'S GE). BUT THE FANCY CHARTS/GRAPHS SHOW AWESOME GAINS TAKING THE INDEX OF THE DOW FROM 1900! (Yet the actual portfolio of the companies show many "zeros"…never to recover, as they're GONE! BUT THE INDEXES JUST POP IN ANOTHER COMPANY, and continue with the positive calculations!
(MY OPINION; NOT ADVICE): Some very good points made in this video. One important point that (I feel was not sufficiently addressed) is this: IF THE NEXT CRASH HAS A LITTLE DIFFERENT FLAVOR (SUCH AS MORE TO THE TUNE OF THE 1929/30'S – WHEREBY THE CRASH OF 29 – CONTINUED ON/OFF FOR MANY YEARS…VS. THE TYPE OF CRASH WE'D HAD LAST YEAR, W/A SHARP, QUICK REBOUND), THEN, we may be looking at many years until the "numbers" are in your favor again. For example, I believe with the 1929 crash…it wasn't until (more than two decades) later, before the numbers were at break even again. And obviously, anybody that "retired" in those decades, and needed to pull funds out, never recovered. Best regards.
I cant just casually watch people with accents. I have to stop and listen to what they're saying
Comb your hair or something. You look like you just got done getting it from your boyfriend for an hour. You dont appear to be smart at all.
CRASH- argument that you dont really lose your money? Well i have been in them and you DO REALLY lose half your money / Why? Because a real old time crash take YEARS to recover so if you can wait , then OK and that assumes the stock you bought actually recover.
Dot-Com- Most of those stocks went bye bye and people lose everything. So these current fast crashes and printing UP again is what the youngsters are seeing now and think after a crash the next day, the govt gets your money back. The upcoming REAL gut wrenching crash will destroy you if you are in high on blue chips or worthless stocks or crypto and you have been warned!!
Remember, the smart big traders get out and can exit their stop losses BEFORE yours can trigger so dont rely on stop losses to save you. Not fair but welcome to mega rich and rules and ms trading that saves them while reg traders get terribly burned.
So what you do from may 2021 will effect the rest of the next 5 years and debt had doubled and houses are way over priced and it all has to correct somehow, so when it does happen, it will be WW and painful and may exceed the 1929 which was local really.
If not, then the world wallows in massive debt and slowly rates go up as inflation rises and repayments on houses cant be made and that devalueas and it all sort of goes down depressingly. Thats best case but even 1987 was a flash crash, so a real crash can happen any time and nothing i even say can predict the timing only the maths now is horrible with covid and a overdue crash of 50% due for years and now double the debt from the printing, so theres nothing left to say….
The "crash" a year ago doesant count as it was only 30% and more importantly , no one got "hurt" as they pumped it all back in and the market then added 1400 points something never ever happened. The last 1.9 trillion, added a few hundred to the S&P and now its stalled at 4200. So its all being held up by fake money causing massive inflation more than even naysayers predicted and the true value of the market really should only be 2000-3000 on the S*P and we are at 4200. So the buffet indicator if way high and all crash ones are same effectively.
Only the top few mega companies are holding it all up and also as soon as that flooded liquidity dissipates, it has to collapse down to reasonable levels and thats not including a human emotion crash, just the basic numbers are too high now pumped artificially.
Any 4th stimulus will be minimal and thus no effect on the market and best case, limp on for couple of months but theres only one possible way to go now SHORT OF GDP doubling to support all this printing?? and can that actually happen. NO. So we are back to crash and possible up to 89% like 1929? Bitcoin ect all collapse as panic to sell out of worthless crap and gold and silver down too before rising with bonds.
If you are a long termer none of what you say here really matters, right stocks keeps going up and always will. Not seeing what you say will happen. You never lose if you don't sell simple as that. The crash you talking about is not real and wouldn't happen. Good video and thanks
What about all that money printing? Money we owe? The weakening of the dollar? Dude sleeping while countries making digital currencies? Country like post world war 1 where lumber is more sought after than anything and people are getting 10,000 a months to stay home? Not good
It's all well and good but what about Japanese companies? It's not the first bull run of such a scale either, just look at NIKKEI pre 1990s. Market may be 100 years old but it wasn't around only in US. In fact biggest companies of 1989 were for the most part Japanese and just a tiny portion of em American. Just like USA/China scenario now. Also Toyota, Sony and many others are global companies.
When using global GDP did you remove countries which have little to no business with these corporations such as some poorer nations? Including their GDP in the data will affect the result
Most of my crypto portfolio got destroyed already… now stocks. My only regret is not taking enough profits for cash/tether to buy the dips.
I have a question: when crashes happen and price declines from sell offs where does that money go?
but if you are 100% sure in your strategy the market will crash soon ( next 6 months ) why not go shorter or sell all and waiting the crash?
For more info on how to invest on Bitcoin and also guide you on steps to recover your lost funds on previous trade
Market crash market crash market crash, market crash everywhere, its getting boring slowely. Ofcourse it might happend, maybe market will go side ways for a year or two and will catch up valuation.
Can't know how I stopmed onto this. Anyway Damn good content 🤩🤩🤩. I also have been watching those rather similar from mStarTutorials and kinda wonder how you guys create these stuff. MSTAR TUTORIALS also had cool information about similiar money making things on his channel.
I got a feeling buddy we will be crashing much sooner than we all thought. Thinking by the end of June 2021 our bags will be growing much larger. Was so excited to see I upgraded my small luggage bag in crypto to large duffel bags. Gotta love it. This market is horrendous to try and sift through. Depressing.
I was too nervous to invest last year as I didn't know anything about investing, kept all my money in the bank instead. Now I wish I had 🙁
I've been all in GOLD FUND for a couple of months!! Too many conditions just favoring gold prices…. ultra-low interest rates, real yields get more negative due to the increasing hyperinflation, the unlimited QE's since the last Mar. 2020, new waves of Covid pandemic in Asia, Israel and Palestine tensions on Gaza, all commodities' soaring, and the crypto prices tumbled recently… all forming the perfect storms for the skyrocketing gold prices !!!
What goes up must comes down… and we have gone up way too fast and way too high since covid lows. The rubberband is way overextended and ready to snap back. This crash will be a blessing. Get ready to buy up!
i like looking back at trends…..like the last time the government created a gain of function airborne bioweapon and released it on citizens of the world…..oh wait this is a first
Hi Sasha, been watching a lot of your videos recently, you are my go to guy as a beginner so thankyou very much.
I do have a question, Dividends. I would like to know (on Freetrade) what stocks will pay me dividends and how do I receive the money? Is it more stocks or do the just give you money to your Freetrade balance? If you could reply or even make a video about it, I'd be very appreciative, thanks!
Hi, i have a question.
Is it bad to have 2 different debit cards from different bank?
There was no advert on your latest video, have you fallen foul of something in YouTube algorithm? There was no end ditty either!
Actually if you pulled out in 2008 and waited you did quite well. You had plenty of time to buy back in.I did, and made a ton..2000 was even better, you had plenty of time, timing works great! Michael Burry made a fortune lo. People who don't time just don't know what their doing..Even Buffett sells out when a company is overvalued and holds a ton of cash.
The only reason the stock market does well is because the FED manipulates it, it's a fixed game..